Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Thursday 3/12/20
NCAA Basketball Thursday's Betting Preview and Odds for Big Ten, Big 12 and Big East Tournament Matchups
David Schwab
Come Thursday, things start to get interesting during Championship Week with many of the top teams in nation returning to action in their conference tournament.
Three games of interest on Thursday’s betting board start with a Big Ten matchup between the Purdue Boilermakers and the No. 19 Ohio State Buckeyes. In the Big 12, the No. 22 West Virginia Mountaineers take on the Oklahoma Sooners. Later Thursday night, action in the Big East pits the Marquette Golden Eagles against the No. 16 Seton Hall Pirates.
Big Ten Tournament Matchup
Purdue Boilermakers vs. No. 19 Ohio State Buckeyes
Date: Thursday, March 12, 2020
TV-Time: Big Ten Network, 6:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Bankers Life Fieldhouse
Location: Indianapolis, IN.
Opening Odds: Ohio State -1 ½, Total 128 ½
Betting Matchup
Second round action in the Big Ten Tournament features Purdue as the No. 10 seed looking to avenge an earlier 68-52 road loss to Ohio State as a 5 ½-point underdog. The Boilermakers finished the regular season with just two straight-up victories in their last seven games while posting a 2-4-1 record against the spread.
The total went OVER in seven of their last nine outings. Purdue is 16-15 SU overall and 13-17-1 ATS.
The team averaged 68.2 points per game behind forward Trevion Williams (11.5 PPG) and guard Eric Hunter (10.6 PPG).
It has been a wild ride for the Buckeyes all season long at 21-10 SU (19-12 ATS) ,but with six wins (SU and ATS) in their last eight games, they bring some momentum into this tournament as the No. 7 seed. The total has gone OVER in seven or their last nine outings.
Ohio State has three players in double figures on the year led by Kaleb Wesson (14 PPG). The junior forward was held to eight points in 35 minutes during a season-ending loss to Michigan State.
Betting Trends
-- The Boilermakers are 3-8-1 ATS this season when closing as underdogs and they went 1-2 ATS in three neutral-site games.
-- The Buckeyes have covered in 17 of 25 games as favorites this season and the total has gone OVER in three of their last four games giving points.
-- Despite the earlier loss, Purdue has a 5-2 SU edge in its last seven games against Ohio State. The series is tied 5-5 ATS over the last 10 meetings with the total going OVER in four of the last five games between the two.
Big 12 Tournament Matchup
No. 22 West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Oklahoma Sooners
Date: Thursday, March 12, 2020
TV-Time: ESPN2, 9:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Sprint Center
Location: Kansas City, Missouri
Opening Odds: West Virginia -3 ½, Total 134 ½
Betting Matchup
West Virginia finished the regular season 21-10 SU and an even 15-15-1 ATS. It also went an even 9-9 SU in Big 12 play to earn the No. 6 seed in the conference tournament. The Mountaineers ended the season on a high note with a stunning 76-64 victory over Baylor. They closed as slight 1 ½-point favorites at home.
West Virginia dropped a pair of games against Oklahoma SU and ATS by a combined 21 points with the total staying UNDER in each game.
Emmitt Matthews scored a season-high 18 points and freshman Oscar Tshiebwe added 16 points and 12 rebounds to pace the season-ending win over Baylor.
The Sooners (19-12 SU, 14-16-1 ATS) were also 9-9 SU in conference play but favorable tiebreakers moved them to No. 3 in the tournament bracket. They went 3-1 SU and ATS over their last four games including an 11-point road win against West Virginia as eight-point underdogs on Feb. 29. The total stayed UNDER in four of their last six outings.
Oklahoma erased a 19-point deficit with Austin Reaves scoring 41 points in a season-ending 78-76 road win against TCU.
Betting Trends
-- The Mountaineers have a SU 5-5 record in their last 10 games as favorites with a 3-6-1 record ATS. The total has stayed UNDER in eight of those 10 games.
-- The Sooners have won their last three games SU and ATS closing as underdogs but they are an even 8-8 ATS in 16 games this season getting points.
-- Oklahoma has won three of its last four games against West Virginia both SU and ATS. The total has stayed UNDER in seven of the last 10 meetings.
Big East Tournament Matchup
Marquette Golden Eagles vs. No. 16 Seton Hall Pirates
Date: Thursday, March 12, 2020
TV-Time: FOX Sports 1, 9:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Madison Square Garden
Location: New York, New York
Opening Odds: Seton Hall -2 ½, Total 150 ½
Betting Matchup
Marquette’s current SU three-game losing streak started on Feb. 29 with an 88-79 loss to Seton Hall as a three-point home favorite. It also lost to the Pirates by 14 points on the road in early January. The Golden Eagles (18-12 SU, 17-13 ATS) slipped to sixth in the Big East after losing six of their last seven games SU.
They were 2-5 ATS with the total going OVER in four of their last five games.
Senior guard Markus Howard has averaged 27.8 PPG game this season and he has topped that average in each of his last five starts.
The Pirates (21-9 SU, 17-12-1 ATS) played their way out of an outright Big East regular season title with a SU 3-3 record in their last six conference games. They finished in a three-way tie with Creighton and Villanova at 13-5 but tiebreakers dropped them to No. 3.
Seton Hall went 4-8-1 ATS over its final 13 contests with the total going OVER in five of the last seven games.
Senior guard Miles Powell has scored an average of 21.0 PPG this season and he had 28 points in the recent meeting against Marquette.
Betting Trends
-- The Golden Eagles went 2-1 ATS in three previous neutral-site games this season but they failed to cover in four of nine games closing as underdogs.
-- The Pirates are also 2-1 ATS in neutral-site games but they fall to just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games closing as favorites.
-- With the season sweep, Seton Hall has won its last four games against Marquette SU while covering in the last five. The total stayed UNDER in three of the previous five meetings.
NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up
Thursday, March 12
Big East tourney, Madison Square Garden
Creighton’s reward for winning #1-seed in this tournament is getting a true road game right off the bat; Bluejays won 11 of their last 13 games overall- they split pair of games with St John’s TY, losing 91-71 in Lapchick Gym 11 days ago. Creighton is 7-3 in last ten series games. Red Storm is 7-11 in this event since ’04, going WL the last three years- they finished last nite’s game on 23-0 run to beat Georgetown, after trailing by 10 with 7:32 left. St John’s went 5-13 in Big East after a 11-2 pre-conference slate; they scored 91-88-75 points, winning last three home tilts. Creighton PG Zegarowski (knee) is out.
Providence won its last six games to finish 12-6 in Big East, after an underwhelming 7-6 mark in pre-conference games; Friars are experience team #30 that forces turnovers 21.4% of time (#44)- they won last two road games. Butler won its last three games to finish 10-8 in Big East; they play very slow (#341) tempo. Butler/Providence split couple road wins this year; Friars are 12-4 vs Bulldogs in Big East play, winning by 14-23 points in two tourney matchups. Butler is 1-6 in this event the last six years; PC won its first tourney game five of last six years.
Seton Hall beat Marquette twice TY, by 14-8 points; Pirates made 13-26 on arc in last meeting. Hall won last four series games- they won last two Big East tourney meetings, by 6-5 points. Seton Hall went 3-4 in its last seven games, giving up 77.7 ppg in last three games; they’re #63 experience team. Marquette lost six of its last seven games, after a 7-4 start in Big East; Golden Eagles lost their last two games by total of 3 points. Marquette won its first tourney game four of last five years, going WL those five years; Pirates won first tourney game eight of last 11 years.
Big 14 tourney, Indianapolis
Michigan beat Rutgers twice TY, by 6-8 points; one game was at Rutgers, the other in NYC; Wolverines are 8-0 in series meetings. Michigan lost three of its last four games overall, was 10-10 in Big 14, winning three of last five road games. Wolverines are shooting 54.1% inside arc (#24). Rutgers is 2-10 away from home TY, winning at Nebraska/Purdue; Knights went 11-9 in big 14, their first winning conference season since at least 1997. Michigan is 12-2 in this event the last four years, winning it in ’18, ’19, but Beilein was coach then; Rutgers is 3-5 in this event.
Indiana ended first half on 16-1 run last nite, waxed Nebraska by 25; Hoosiers played only one guy more than 28:00. Indiana split its last ten games, is squarely on bubble. Penn State lost five of its last six games after starting 10-4 in league; Nittany Lions lost their last game by 11 at Northwestern, which is a red flag. Penn State/Indiana split two home wins TY; Hoosiers won 12 of last 15 series games, with four of their last five series win by 4 or fewer points, or in OT. Hoosiers are 4-13 in last 13 Big 14 tourneys; PSU is 5-8 the last eight years.
ACC tournament, Greensboro
Florida State won six of its last seven games; loss was 70-69 at Clemson 12 days ago, when FSU blew 10-point 2nd half lead. Seminoles won seven of last nine series games- they won last three ACC tourney meetings. Clemson played three starters 32:00+ in their 69-64 win over Miami yesterday; they scored 62 or fewer points in their last eight losses. Tigers get 36.5% of their points on arc (#47), but are making only 31.5% of their 3’s (#267). Tigers are young (experience team #240). FSU won first ACC tourney game seven of last eight years.
Since 2009, Duke is 22-6 in ACC tourney, winning it two of last three years; TY, Blue Devils split pair of home wins with NC State, losing 88-66 in Raleigh, then beating Wolfpack 88-69 ten days ago. Teams split last six series games overall. State won three of last four games; they’re #62 experience team that shoots 52.6% inside arc (#54) but only 31.9% on arc (#244). Wolfpack is 4-5 in last five ACC tourneys. Duke split its last six games, losing last three games away from home; Blue Devils are 15-5 in ACC, 2-4 in games decided by fewer than eight points.
Syracuse was +10 (18-8) in turnovers in its 81-53 rout of North Carolina last nite; Orange won four of last six games overall- they’re played four starters 35:00+ last nite, but it was a stress-free win. SU lost six of last nine series games; Louisville never trailed in its 90-66 home win over Syracuse Feb 19. Cardinals went 3-4 in their last seven games after starting season 21-3; they scored 67 or fewer points in last four losses. Having last nite off has to be an edge. Louisville won three straight conference tourneys from 2012-14, is only 1-4 in tourneys since then.
Big X tournament, Kansas City
Texas Tech scored only 59.8 ppg in losing its last four games; they finished 9-9 in Big X, will rest a lot easier with win here. Red Raiders are experience team #299 that forces turnovers 23% of time (#17). Texas won five of its last six games, but lost last game by 22 at home to Oklahoma State. Tech/Texas split pair of low scoring games TY, with road team winning both; Tech won five of last six series games- teams split last two meetings in Big X tourney. Tech is just 1-6 in this event the last six years; Longhorns are 6-8 the last eight years, going WL six times.
Oklahoma swept West Virginia TY, by 10-11 points, holding them to 60.5 ppg; Sooners had lost five of six games to WVU the previous two years, losing 72-71 in LY’s Big X tourney. Oklahoma won three of last four games to finish 9-9 in Big X; teams shoot only 44.2% inside arc against them (#16). Mountaineers won their last two games after a 1-6 skid, also finished 9-9 in Big X, losing six of last seven road games. WVU went WWL in each of last four Big X tourneys; Sooners are 0-3 in this event the last three years, losing by 11-11-19 points.
SEC tournament, Nashville
Alabama went 4-8 in its last dozen games, after starting season 12-7; losing their last two games to Vandy/Mizzou is a bright red flag. Crimson Tide lost 69-68 at home to Tennessee Feb 4, game they led by 15 in first half. Vols outscored Bama 23-5 on foul line in road game. Teams split last ten series games. Tennessee went 9-9 in SEC, after their PG went out for year and they brought in a new kid from Uruguay; Vols have #30 eFG% defense in country. Bama won its first tourney game the last four years; Tennessee won its first tourney game 10 of last 12 years.
Pac-12 tourney, Las Vegas (T-Mobile Arena)
Oregon won its last four games, went 13-5 in Pac-12, with last three wins by 13+ points. Ducks are shooting 39.6% on arc (#2 in country). Oregon State was down 14 in second half to Utah yesterday, rallied to win by hoop, playing four starters 35:00+. OSU is experience team #75, which helps. Oregon/OSU split pair of home wins TY; Beavers won four of last six series games, lost by 14 in only tourney meeting since ’04. Ducks won Pac-12 tourney LY, are 16-5 in last seven tourneys, winning it twice; State is 3-7 in last eight Pac-12 tourneys.
Arizona played its three freshmen starters 34:00+ in last nite’s 77-70 win over Washington; UA lost four of last six games overall, is experience team #306 that has #17 eFG% defense. USC won its last three games to finish 11-7 in Pac-12; Trojans have #9 eFG% defense. Teams split pair of home wins TY; Trojans won three of last four series games, after losing 11 of previous 13 meetings. Wildcats are 18-6 in last ten Pac-12 tourneys, winning three of them; Trojans are 6-5 in last five Pac-12 tourneys, going WL four times.