Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Thursday 2/27/20
NCAA Basketball Thursday's Pac-12 Odds and Betting Preview for Feb. 27, 2020
David Schwab
A late-night doubleheader of Thursday’s college basketball betting action offers a pair of intriguing matchups in the Pac-12.
First up, the Arizona Wildcats will be on the road against the USC Trojans with each team looking for a much needed win. The other pairing renews a long-running rivalry between the Oregon State Beavers and the No. 14 Oregon Ducks in Eugene.
Arizona Wildcats at USC Trojans
(ESPN, 10:00 p.m. ET)
Opening Odds: TBA
Betting Matchup
Arizona dropped out of the national rankings with Saturday’s 73-72 overtime loss to Oregon as a five-point home favorite. It is 6-2 straight-up with a 5-3 record against the spread in its last eight games. The total has gone OVER in the Wildcats’ last two games after staying UNDER in six of their previous eight outings. They are 19-8 SU (15-12 ATS) overall with a 9-5 mark in Pac-12 play.
Arizona is averaging 78.1 points per game with three players scoring at least 12 points a game. The team has a points-allowed average of 65.3.
With five SU losses in their last seven games, the Trojans (19-9 SU, 17-11 ATS) are 8-7 SU in conference play. Sunday’s 79-65 road loss to Utah as one-point underdogs was the first time they failed to cover in their last six games. The total went OVER 136 points in Saturday’s loss after staying UNDER in seven of USC’s previous eight games.
Forward Onyeka Okongwu leads the team with 16.7 points and 8.9 rebounds a game. The Trojans are averaging 71.3 PPG while giving up 67.3 points a game on defense.
Betting Trends
-- The Wildcats are 4-0 both SU and ATS in their last four road games with the total staying UNDER in the last three road games. They are 5-5 SU with a 6-4 record ATS over their last 10 games played on the road.
-- The Trojans have won seven of their last eight home games SU while going 4-2 ATS in the last six. The total has stayed UNDER in their last four games at home.
-- Arizona has won seven of the last 10 meetings SU with the recent 85-80 victory at home. The series is tied 5-5 ATS over the last 10 games between the two. The has gone OVER in the last two meetings.
Oregon State Beavers at No. 14 Oregon Ducks
(ESPN2, 11:00 p.m. ET)
Opening Odds: Oregon -10, Total 139
Betting Matchup
Oregon State came out on top 63-53 as a 3 ½-point home underdog in the first meeting against the Ducks but it has dropped its last three games SU. The Beavers (15-12 SU and ATS) were able to cover as five-point road underdogs in Saturday’s 74-73 loss to Arizona State. They are 4-7 ATS over their last 11 games with the total going OVER in four of their last seven outings.
Oregon State has lost 10 of 15 Pac-12 games this season SU behind a defense that is allowing 68.1 PPG. Senior forward Tres Tinkle is the leading scorer with 18.2 points a game. He scored 25 points in Saturday’s loss.
The Ducks (10-5) are a half game behind Arizona State for first place in the Pac-12 and 19-8 SU overall. They are an even 3-3 SU over their past six games with three covers in their last four contests. The total has gone OVER in their last three games.
Payton Pritchard scored a career-high 38 points in Saturday’s road upset against Arizona. The senior guard leads the team in scoring this season with 20.1 PPG. Oregon is averaging 75.5 points a game with a trio of players in double figures.
Betting Trends
-- The Beavers have lost five of their last seven road games as underdogs but they have covered in three of their last five road games getting points. The total has gone OVER in seven of their last 10 games getting points on the road.
-- The Ducks have a SU 18-game winning streak as home favorites with an even 5-5 record ATS in the last 10 victories. The total has gone OVER in seven of the last eight home games as favorites.
-- Oregon State won the first meeting as part of a 4-1 record SU and ATS in the last five games between the two in-state rivals. The total stayed UNDER in four of those five games.
NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up
Thursday, February 27
Charleston lost its last four games after starting season 9-3 in CAA; they’ve lost three of last five home games. Cougars scored 51-55 points in their last two games. Delaware won eight of last ten games but lost two of last three; they’re 10-6 in CAA, winning three of last four road games. This is Blue Hens’ first winning season in CAA since ’14. Delaware went 3-25 on arc in its 75-63 home loss to Charleston Dec 30, after Blue Hens led by 8 early in second half. Charleston won last seven series games; Blue Hens lost their last four visits here, by 1-13-15-13 points.
Hofstra won 75-67 at Towson State Dec 30, after trailing by 12 early in second half. Pride won last five series games, winning last two meetings here, by 5-9 points. Towson lost in double OT here LY. Tigers are 4-3 in last seven games after a 7-0 run; they’re 10-6 in CAA, winning five of last six road games. Towson gives up 35.6% of its points on arc (#42); Hofstra shoots 35.7% on arc (#61). Pride leads CAA by two games; they’ve never won CAA tournament. Hofstra won its last four home games, three of them by 13+ points.
Michigan won its last five games and seven of last eight; they’re 9-7 in Big 14, winning last two home games, by 9-24 points. Wolverines allowed only 58.5 ppg in their last four games; their eFG% defense is #32, without forcing lot of turnovers (#331). Wisconsin scored 74.8 ppg in winning its last four games; they’re 10-6 in conference, losing four of last five road games, with lone win at Nebraska. Badgers get 38.7% of their points on arc (#21). Michigan won four of its last five games with Wisconsin; Badgers lost last two visits to Ann Arbor, by 6-9 points.
Purdue lost its last four games since they made 8-16 on arc, won 74-62 at Indiana Feb 8. Boilers won last six series games, taking last four meetings in Mackey Arena, by 18-16-11-15 points, but they are now 7-10 in Big 14, losing last two home games, to Penn St/Michigan. Boilers #231 experience team that plays a slow (#334) pace- they’re #19 team in country on offensive boards. Indiana won three of last four games since the Purdue loss, beating Iowa/Penn St in last two home games; Hoosiers are 8-8 in conference, are currently on right side of the bubble.
Green Bay/Youngstown State are in a 3-way tie for 3rd place in Horizon; this is a big game as far as seeding in Horizon tourney. Green Bay lost 98-94 in OT at Youngstown Jan 25, blowing an 11-point lead with 8:36 left. Penguins won four of last six series games, losing last two visits to Green Bay, by 18-6 points. Youngstown won four of its last six games; they’re 9-7 in Horizon, their first plus .500 year since 2012. Penguins lost four of last five road games. Green Bay won four of last six games but lost last game in 2OT’s; Phoenix won three of last four at home.
Murray State is in a 3-way tie atop OVC standings; they won their last six games with Eastern Kentucky, winning last four meetings here, by 7-7-12-15 points. Murray split its last six games after starting out 10-0 in OVC; Racers got beat at Eastern Illinois LW, blowing a 27-point lead with 11:45 left to play. Murray starts two frosh, one soph; they’re 7-0 in OVC home games, with six home wins by 10+. Murray is shooting 36.5% on arc (#38). EKU is mostly set as the #4 seed in OVC; Colonels are 11-5 in OVC after a 3-10 pre-conference slate- they play fast (#4 pace).
Arizona held on to beat USC 85-80 at home three weeks ago, after leading by 20 with 12:55 left; Wildcats were 28-40 on foul line, USC 18-24. Arizona was +6 in turnovers (12-6). Arizona won 11 of last 14 series games, but lost three of last five visits to Galen Center. Wildcats won six of its last eight games; they’re 9-5 in Pac-12, winning last four road games, three by 9+ points- they’re starting three freshmen, have #31 eFG% defense. USC lost five of its last seven games, is 8-7 in Pac-12, 5-1 at home, with lone home loss to Colorado- they turn ball over 20.2% of time (#259).
Saint Mary’s won eight of ten games since a 67-66 home loss to Santa Clara Jan 11, when Gaels shot 34.2% inside arc, blew a 9-point second half lead. Broncos have won only 2 of last 21 series games; St Mary’s won its last four visits to Santa Clara, all by 11+ points. St Mary’s is 10-4 in WCC, winning three of last four road games- they’re shooting 39.8% on arc (#2 in country), getting 32.4% of their points on arc (#126). Santa Clara lost its last five games; they’re 5-9 in WCC, losing last two at home, giving up 85-87 points in last two games overall.
Santa Barbara nipped Riverside 65-63 at home Jan 25, even though UCR shot 17-22 (77%) inside arc- there were only 17 foul shots taken in whole game. Gauchos won five of last six series games; Riverside lost their last 16 games in the Thunderdome, but covered three of last five. Highlanders lost five of last six games, are 5-8 in Big West, losing last two home games by total of five points- their last four losses overall were all by 4 or fewer points. UCSB won five of its last six games, is 7-5 in Big West, they lost three of their last five road tilts.
UCLA won its last five games since an 84-66 loss at Arizona State three weeks ago, when Sun Devils made 14-24 on arc. ASU won last four series games; their 84-73 win at Pauley LY ended a 7-game losing streak in Westwood. Sun Devils won their last seven games, six of them by 5 or fewer points; they’re 10-4 in Mountain West, winning last three road games. ASU is forcing turnovers 22.1% of time (#36). UCLA won its last five games, is 10-5 in Pac-12, winning their last five home games. Bruins retrieve 34.1% of their missed shots (#17 in country).
Oregon State outscored Oregon 12-2 on foul line in its 63-53 home win over their rival Ducks Feb 8 in Corvallis; how do you play a whole game and go 2-3 on foul line? Beavers won four of last five series games; they’ve lost six of last seven visits to Eugene. OSU lost last three games, is a disappointing 5-10 in Pac-12, making only 27.8% of its 3’s in conference- they lost five of last six road games. Oregon won three of last four games, is 10-4 in Pac-12; four of those 10 wins came in OT. Ducks are shooting 38% on arc (#14), getting 33.5% of their points on arc (#97).
North Texas made 10-26 one arc, beat Florida International 74-56 at home Jan 9; teams split last eight series games. Mean Green lost their last four visits to FIU, three of them by 10+ points. UNT won 12 of its last 14 games; they’re 12-3 in C-USA, winning five of last six road games, with lone loss by 9 at Rice. Mean Green is shooting 38% on arc (#15), getting 35.4% of their points on 3’s (#68). FIU is 5-1 at home, 3-6 on road in C-USA games, with only home loss to Marshall; they lost couple of games LW, by 3-8 points.
Western Kentucky outscored Louisiana Tech 19-2 on foul line in its 65-54 win over the Bulldogs Feb 6- Hilltoppers led by 20 at the half. Home team won last six series games; Tech lost its last three visits to WKU, by 6-1-11 points. Tech won three in row, seven of last nine games; they’re 11-4 in C-USA, 5-3 on road. Bulldogs are experience team #30that has #36 eFG% in country. WKU won four of its last five games, with last four all decided by 5 or fewer points; they’re 11-4 in conference, 7-1 at home- they lost their last game at home, to Charlotte by a hoop.