Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Saturday 2/15/20
Saturday's Tip Sheet
David Schwab
A trio of late-afternoon matchups in the Big 12 and the Big Ten including the top team in the nation round out the early betting board in college basketball this Saturday.
Getting things started is a showdown between the No. 14 West Virginia Mountaineers and the No.1 Baylor Bears in Waco. Next up, the No. 22 Illinois Fighting Illini head on the road to face the Rutgers Scarlet Knights. Closing out Saturday afternoon’s slate, the No. 9 Maryland Terrapins tangle with the Michigan State Spartans in East Lansing.
No. 14 West Virginia Mountaineers at No. 1 Baylor Bears
(ESPN+, 4:00 p.m. ET)
Opening Odds: Baylor -6, Total 130
Betting Matchup
West Virginia will wrap up a brutal two-game stretch on Saturday after losing to Kansas 58-49 on Wednesday night as a slight 1 ½-point favorite. It also lost to Oklahoma 69-59 in its previous outing as a 2 ½-point favorite on the road. The Mountaineers are 2-3 straight-up in their last five games while sliding to 1-4 against the spread. They are 18-6 SU overall with a 6-5 record in Big 12 play. West Virginia has failed to reach its scoring average (71.8 points) in three of its last four games.
The top-ranked Bears (22-1 SU, 15-8 ATS) keep rolling through Big 12 play at 11-0 SU (8-3 ATS) as part of an extended 21-game winning streak. They beat Texas 52-45 on Monday as six-point road favorites. The total has stayed UNDER in three of Baylor’s last five outings. MaCio Teague scored a team-high 11 points in Monday’s win but the big story with this team continues to be a defense that is ranked fourth in the nation in points allowed (58.3).
Betting Trends
-- The Mountaineers are 3-5 both SU and ATS on the road this season. They have covered in two of three games closing as underdogs.
-- The Bears remain perfect at home with 11 SU wins. They fall to 5-6 ATS on their home court with the total staying UNDER in four of their last five Big 12 home games.
-- West Virginia has a slight 3-2 edge both SU and ATS in the last five meetings with the total going OVER in the last three games between the two.
No. 22 Illinois Fighting Illini at Rutgers Scarlet Knights
(Big Ten Network, 4:30 p.m. ET)
Opening Odds: Rutgers -4, Total 130
Betting Matchup
With Tuesday’s 70-69 home loss to Michigan State as 2 ½-point underdogs, the Fighting Illini are mired in a three-game SU slump. The other two losses were against Iowa on the road and to Maryland at home. They are 8-5 (SU and ATS) in conference play and 16-8 (12-10-1 ATS) overall. The total has stayed UNDER in four of their last five games. Making matters much worse for Illinois was a knee injury to Ayo Dosunmu in the closing seconds of Tuesday’s loss.
Rutgers slipped to 8-6 SU (10-4 ATS) in Big Ten play with Wednesday’s 72-66 road loss to Ohio State as a 5 ½-point underdog. One of its early losses in the Big Ten was a 54-51 setback against Illinois as a 5 ½-point underdog on the road back on Jan. 11. The Scarlet Knights (17-8 SU, 15-8-1 ATS) are now 1-4 SU and ATS in their last five games with the total going OVER five of their last seven contests. Sophomore guard Ron Harper Jr. is the team’s leading scorer this season (11.2 points) but has been held to 10 points or less in his last five starts.
Betting Trends
-- The Fighting Illini have gone 3-1 both SU and ATS in their last four road games with the total staying UNDER in eight of the last 10 games on the road.
-- The Scarlet Knights are a perfect 16-0 SU at home this season with an 8-2 record ATS in their last 10 home games. The total has gone OVER in their last three games at home.
-- Illinois is now 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS in its last nine games against Rutgers. The total has gone OVER in three of the last four meetings.
No. 9 Maryland Terrapins at Michigan State Spartans
(ESPN, 6:00 p.m. ET)
Opening Odds: Michigan State -7, Total 138.5
Betting Matchup
The Terrapins are at the top of the Big Ten standings at 10-3 and riding a SU seven-game winning streak into Saturday’s contest. They have gone 6-2 ATS over their last eight outings with the total going OVER in four of the last six games. Maryland is 20-4 SU overall with a 13-11 record ATS. In Tuesday’s tight 72-70 win against Nebraska as heavy 18-point home favorites, Jalen Smith scored 16 points with 13 rebounds. Eric Ayala also added 16 points to help squeeze out the win.
Michigan State is out of the national rankings and a game and a half out of the conference lead at 9-5 SU. It just snapped a three-game losing streak with the win over Illinois. The Spartans (17-8 SU, 11-14 ATS) still failed to cover as slight road favorites to fall to 2-5 ATS in their last seven games. The total has stayed UNDER in eight of their last 10 outings. Senior guard Cassius Winston continues to lead the way with 18.3 points per game. He was held to 12 points against Illinois after scoring 20 points or more in each of his previous three starts.
Betting Trends
-- The Terrapins are 4-6 SU and an even 5-5 ATS over their last 10 road games. Yet, they have covered in their last four games on the road. The total has gone OVER in the last three road games.
-- The Spartans have covered in seven of their last eight home games with the total staying UNDER in their last four games at home.
-- Michigan State has won six of the last seven meetings SU with the 4-2-1 edge ATS. The total has stayed UNDER in six of those past seven matchups.
Saturday’s college basketball
Mississippi State split its last six games, is 6-5 in SEC, 1-4 on road, with lone win at Florida; they lost last game by 25 at rival Ole Miss. Arkansas lost three in row (two in OT), six of last eight games after a 14-2 start; they’re 4-7 in SEC, losing three of last four home games. Hogs allowed 81.3 ppg in last three games. MSU was +10 on boards, outscored Arkansas 27-6 on foul line in its 77-70 home win over the Hogs Jan 22; Bulldogs won last four series games, winning last two trips to Fayetteville, by 6-10 points. SEC home favorites of 3 or fewer points are 3-8 ATS.
Alabama lost four of last five games, splitting OT games in last two; Crimson Tide was 22-59 on arc in its 95-91 loss at Auburn Wednesday, a game Bama trailed 16-0. LSU lost two of last three games after an 8-0 SEC start; Tigers are 9-2 in SEC, 6-0 at home, with four wins by 4 or fewer points. LSU led Alabama 51-33 at halftime of its 90-76 home win over the Tide Jan 29; Bama was only 10-38 on arc. Tigers won last three series games, by 9-5-14 points; they split last four visits to Tuscaloosa. SEC home favorites of 3 or fewer points are 3-8 ATS.
Delaware won its last seven games, since a 77-68 home loss to Wm & Mary Jan 16, when Tribe outscored Delaware 20-7 on foul line. Only one of Blue Hens’ last seven wins was by more than six points. Wm & Mary is 3-5 in its last eight games after starting CAA 6-0; Tribe lost two of last three road games- they’re shooting only 32% on arc in CAA play. Teams split last four series games; Blue Hens lost their last four visits to W&M, by 26-24-17-21. Delaware is 9-4 in CAA, winning last three road games; they’re CAA home favorites of 4 or fewer points are 4-13 ATS.
Baylor won its last last 21 games since a 67-64 loss to (full strength) Washington in Alaska; Bears are 11-0 in Big X, forcing turnovers 21.3% of time in Big X games. West Virginia lost four of five Big X road games, with lone win at Oklahoma St; Mountaineers scored 59-49 points in last two games, have #276 eFG% in country. Baylor is 9-7 in Big X meetings with West Virginia, sweeping Mountaineers LY, by 12-7 points. WVa is 3-4 in its visits to Waco. Underdogs covered four of last five series games. Big X home favorites of 5+ points are 15-8 ATS.
Louisville led Clemson 47-26 at halftime of its 80-62 home win over Tigers Jan 25; Cardinals made 10-21 on arc for game. Home side won all six ACC meetings in this series; Louisville lost by 4-5 points in its last two visits to the Palmetto State. Cardinals won 10 of last 11 games, losing last game at Ga Tech; they’re 12-2 in ACC, 6-1 on road- they’re making 39.1% of their 3’s (#6). Clemson lost three of last four games, is 6-8 in ACC, but they won four of last five home games. ACC road favorites of 6 or fewer points are 8-9-1 ATS this season.
VCU beat crosstown rival Richmond 87-68 at home Jan 28; game was tied at half. Rams made 10-21 on arc, put five guys in double figures. VCU won nine of last 11 series games, winning three of last four visits here. Rams won five of its last seven games; they’re 7-4 in A-14, 3-2 on road, forcing turnovers 23.2% of time in A-14 play, best in league. Richmond won its last three games, allowing 51.3 ppg; they’re 8-3 in A-14, 3-2 at home. Spiders are 3-5 vs top 100 teams this season. A-14 home favorites of 3 or fewer points are 5-3 ATS.
Illinois outscored Rutgers 10-5 over final 2:43 of its 54-51 home win over the Scarlet Knights Jan 11; Illini outscored Rutgers 16-3 on foul line. Illinois won seven of eight Big 14 meetings, winning two of three visits to the Garden State. Illini lost its last three games after starting 8-2 in Big 14; they split six conference road games. Rutgers is 7-0 at home, 1-6 on road in Big 14 tilts; Scarlet Knights have #26 eFG% defense in country, but shoot only 29.8% on arc (#318), 64.7% on line (#329). Big 14 home favorites of 4 or fewer points are 11-7-1 ATS.
Michigan State lost three of last four games, squeaking past Illinois 70-69 in last game, after blowing a 20-point lead. Spartans are 9-5 in Big 14, 6-1 at home, with lone loss to Penn St. MSU has #4 eFG% defense in country- they won six of last seven games with Maryland; Terps lost their last two visits to Breslin Center, by 9-30 points. Maryland won its last seven games, is 10-3 in Big 14, winning last three road games. Terps have #224 eFG%; they’re shooting 31.8% on arc (#244). Big 14 home favorites of 6+ points are 8-15 ATS this season.
Houston beat SMU 71-62 at home Jan 15; they led 31-20 at half. Cougars won last five series games, winning last two visits to Moody Coliseum, by 13-11 points. SMU split its last four games, is 7-4 in AAC, winning all six home games. Mustangs have #24 eFG% in country- they’ve made 37% of their 3’s in AAC games, best in league. Houston won three in row, 14 of last 16 games; they’re 10-2 in AAC, 4-2 on road, allowing 54.3 ppg in last three games. Houston’s two AAC losses were both by a hoop. AAC road favorites of 3 or fewer points are 7-4-1 ATS.
Seton Hall shot 72% inside arc in its 73-64 home win over Providence Jan 22; Friars made only 4-24 on arc. Pirates won seven of last nine series games, splitting last four games here. Hall split its last four games after starting 8-0 in Big East, with both losses at home; they’re 6-0 on Big East road, have got #7 eFG% defense in country. Providence lost five of its last seven games, is 6-6 in Big East, 3-2 at home. Friars are shooting 31.5% on arc (#263), 45.8% inside arc (#316), 68.1% on line (#257). Big East favorites of 2 or fewer points are 6-8 ATS, 3-6 at home.
Northern Iowa beat Loyola 67-62 in OT at home Jan 26, after blowing an 11-point lead with 8:56 left- it was only 2nd series win for UNI in last ten meetings. Panthers lost their last four visits to Loyola, by 3-11-23-6 points. UNI won its last six games, is 11-2 in Valley, 5-2 on road; they’re shooting 40% on arc (#3), have #4 eFG%. Loyola won three of its last four games, is 9-4 in MVC, 6-0 at home, with four wins by 11+. Ramblers are forcing turnovers 25% of time in league games. MVC home teams are 10-9 ATS in games where spread was 3 or less points.
Oregon State outscored Colorado 24-5 over final 7:57 of its 76-68 win in Boulder Jan 5; Beavers shot 62% inside the arc- they won three of last four series games. Colorado lost five of its last six visits to Corvallis. Favorites covered six of last eight series games. Buffaloes are 8-4 in Pac-12, losing three of last four road games; they lost in Eugene Thursday after leading by 14 in first half. OSU won three of last four games, is 5-7 in Pac-12, splitting six home games. Pac-12 road favorites of 3 or fewer points are 4-6-1 ATS this season.
Arizona won four of its last five games, is 7-4 in Pac-12, winning last three road games; they’re only team in country whose top three scorers are all freshmen. Wildcats have #31 eFG% defense, are shooting 36% on arc, but their key guys are young. Stanford lost six of its last seven games after starting season 15-2; they’re 5-6 in Pac-12, 3-2 at home. Five of their last six losses were by 5 or fewer points, or in OT. Arizona won its last 19 games with Stanford, winning last two visits to The Farm by 2-5 points. Pac-12 road favorites of 4+ points are 3-7 ATS.