Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Thursday 5/30/19
Warriors are in Finals for 5th year in row; Raptors are in Finals for first time. Toronto is 2-0 vs Golden State this season, winning in OT in Oakland in November, by 20 at home 13 days later, after Warriors had won previous eight meetings. Six of last eight series games went over the total. Golden State will be without Durant/Cousins; they won their last six games- their last losses were Games 2-3 in Houston. Over is 3-1-1 in their last five road games. Toronto won/covered its last four games; they won last five home games (4-1 vs spread). Over is 3-2 in last five Raptor home games.
The 2019 NBA Finals start Thursday night when the Toronto Raptors welcome the Golden State Warriors at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, Canada. The Raptors will make a debut in the NBA Finals, while the reigning champions Warriors are looking for their third straight championship and fourth over the previous five years. Toronto has won both head-to-head duels in the regular season, beating the Warriors 131-128 in overtime at home and 113-93 at Oracle Arena in Oakland. However, this is a completely different stage where the Warriors have far more experience than the Raptors, so we expect to see a great battle in the opening game of the series.
Injuries/Suspensions
The Warriors will be without Kevin Durant (calf) who’ll miss the sixth straight game, and KD was the key player for the Warriors prior to his injury, averaging 34.2 points per game on 51.3% shooting from the field. DeMarcus Cousins (quad) is listed as questionable, missing the last 14 games, while all other players are ready to go. The Raptors will miss OG Anunoby (appendectomy) who will certainly stay sidelined for the first two contests in Toronto.
The Line
The Raptors are 1-point favorites at the moment with the total at 213.5 points and the Warriors at -105 money line odds. The Warriors opened as 1-point favorites, but the bookies adjusted the odds. Howsoever, don’t bother with a spread and take the money line odds instead.
What’s at Stake?
Toronto wants to defend home court in the opener which would be a huge relief for Nick Nurse’s boys. It would be a tough loss if they kneel at the start of the series against the Warriors who lost just one game in their previous two trips to the Finals.
The Warriors enter their fifth NBA Finals in a row, becoming the second team in the history to make such a feat, while the Raptors made it to the NBA Finals for the first time in franchise history. This could be a huge factor, especially at the start of the series. The Raptors trailed 2-1 against the Sixers in the conference semifinals and 2-0 against the Bucks in the conference finals, so they will be under huge pressure on this one. Toronto is on a four-game winning streak, while Golden State has won six straight games.
The Matchup
The reigning champions will certainly miss Kevin Durant who was averaging 40.5 points on 58.5% shooting from the field along with 9.0 rebounds, and 5.5 assists in two meetings with the Raptors during the regular season. It seems the Raptors have to take advantage of KD’s absence if they want to stand a chance in this series. Steph Curry will lead the Warriors, and he was tallying 36.5 points per game on 47.1% shooting from the field and 42.5% from downtown. However, Steph will have a tall task against Kyle Lowry and Danny Green who are both good defensive stoppers. In his only meeting with the Raptors during the regular season, Curry scored just ten points on 3-of-12 shooting from the field.
Draymond Green was playing at the highest level against the Trail Blazers in the conference finals, averaging 16.5 points, 11.8 rebounds, and 8.8 assists a night while posting a triple-double in each of the last two games of the series. Green is obviously in the playoff mode and his defensive presence will be essential for the Warriors when they meet Kawhi Leonard. Andre Iguodala is another top defender who will take care of Kawhi, while Klay Thompson can also play solid defense at the perimeter.
Kawhi Leonard has had a tremendous playoff run so far. The Claw is averaging 31.2 points, 8.8 boards, and 3.8 dimes per outing while making 50.7% of his field-goal attempts. Kawhi is driving the Raptors’ offense, so Kyle Lowry will spend a lot of time off the ball. Pascal Siakam, Marc Gasol, and Danny Green will all have to step up offensively, as Kawhi will have the toughest possible matchup against the Warriors. Serge Ibaka, Fred VanVleet, and Norman Powell will contribute off the bench, and the Raptors’ second unit needs to replicate its performance from the conference finals.
Another key factor for the Raptors will be their defense. They are allowing just 99.6 points this postseason on 41.7% shooting from the field and 31.3% from beyond the arc. On the other side, the Warriors are tallying whopping 117.3 points per contest on 48.7% shooting from the field and 37.0% from beyond the 3-point line. If they want to win the opener, the Raptors’ defense will have to be at its best.
The Bets
Although they will play without Kevin Durant, I would take the Warriors to win Game 1. The Raptors are well-known as an underperforming team at the start of the playoff series, losing 15 of their 18 opening contests. On the other side, the Warriors are 18-1 straight up in their 19 Game 1s since 2015. Also, the Warriors are ridiculous 31-1 straight up in their previous 32 games when Curry plays and Durant is out. The Warriors lost their regular-season meetings with the Raptors, but they are 16-4 straight up in the last 20 head-to-head duels and 7-3 straight up in the previous ten encounters in Canada.
When it comes to the totals, I’m backing the under, hoping the Raptors will slow down the Warriors, while both teams should put on a strong defensive performance. The betting trends are not helping here, as the over is 10-6 in the Warriors’ 16 outings this postseason, while the under is 13-5 in the Raptors’ 18 showings. The over has hit in the last four H2H duels in Toronto and in seven of the previous ten H2H matchups overall.
Golden State Warriors vs. Toronto Raptors Preview and Predictions 05-30-2019 in NBA
The Toronto Raptors play a game in the NBA Finals for the first time in franchise history on Thursday when they host the two-time defending NBA champion Golden State Warriors. The Raptors have ridden star forward Kawhi Leonard to the Finals, while the powerful Warriors will open the series without star forward Kevin Durant.
Durant has been ruled out of Game 1 with a calf injury and there is a slight chance he could return for Game 2 of the best-of-seven series, while center DeMarcus Cousins (quadriceps) could play in the opening contest. "His next step is individual court work," Golden State coach Steve Kerr said of Durant at Wednesday's media availability. "That will be the next priority. Over the next couple of days, hopefully, he can ramp up. We have to see him practice before he can play a game. He hasn't practiced yet." Toronto has homecourt advantage for the Finals due to a better regular-season record than Golden State and winning the opening two games would improve the club's chances of winning the series. "It's important to get every game." Raptors guard Danny Green told reporters. "Especially against a team like that, you can't let games slip away or home court slip away, because they're very good in their home building. So we want to try our best to protect home court, get every game possible."
TV: 9 p.m. ET, ABC, Sportsnet One (Toronto) LINE: Raptors -1.5
ABOUT THE WARRIORS: Cousins suffered his injury on April 15 in Game 2 of the first-round series against the Los Angeles Clippers and he said Wednesday that he is ready to return. "I feel good," Cousins said. "My quad is coming along. It's healed for the most part. Still whipping things into the shape, building the muscle endurance needed to play at a high level. Everything is coming along well." Point guard Stephen Curry is picking up the scoring slack with Durant sidelined and has scored 30 or more points in five straight playoff games and six of the past seven, while shooting guard Klay Thompson has just one 30-point outing in 16 playoff contests.
ABOUT THE RAPTORS: Leonard is averaging 31.2 points and 8.8 rebounds in the postseason and is again being discussed as perhaps the best player in the NBA while carrying Toronto to the Finals. "I'm not playing the game for that reason," Leonard said of the top player debate. "I'm playing to have fun and try to be the best player I can be. I'm happy with myself and what I have done in my career and I'm just going to keep on from there. It's not about me being famous or want to have more fame. It's about me playing basketball and having fun on the floor." Leonard is slated to become a free agent in July so this could be the Raptors' one-and-only Finals opportunity with him on the roster.
BUZZER BEATERS
1. The Raptors won both regular-season meetings - 131-128 in overtime at Toronto on Nov. 29 and 113-93 on Dec. 12 at Oakland, Calif.
2. Raptors F OG Anunoby (appendectomy) has missed the entire postseason but could return at some point in the series.
3. Golden State PF Draymond Green had back-to-back triple-doubles to wrap up the Western Conference finals against the Portland Trail Blazers and has four during the playoffs.
PREDICTION: Raptors 113, Warriors 110
__________________
Finals Game 1 - Warriors at Raptors
Tony Mejia
NBA Finals – Game 1
Golden State at Toronto (-1/213.5), ABC, 9:07 p.m. ET
2018-19 Head-to-Head Meetings
Dec. 12 – Raptors (+8) 113 at Warriors 93 (Under 226.5)
Nov. 29 – Raptors (-9.5) 131 vs. Warriors 128, OT (Over 223)
The Warriors are used to taking down the East’s best player in June, having done so three of the past four years against LeBron James.
They’ll now look to handle Kawhi Leonard, who has revenge on his mind and a solid defensive team behind him.
These NBA Finals are expected to wrap up with Golden State celebrating a threepeat and its fourth title in five years, but how we get there remains to be seen. There are variables everywhere, starting with when and if Kevin Durant will return from a calf injury to make a run at a third straight Finals MVP.
As of Wednesday afternoon, betting the Raptors to dethrone the Warriors would yield a return of +250 at the Westgate Superbook and William Hill shops, while Golden State is -300 practically everywhere, with the Golden Nugget still offering -280. The odds would certainly improve if the Raptors are able to hold serve on Thursday night, but if you see this series as a mismatch, those odds may be the best you’ll get the rest of the way if the Warriors are able to win another big playoff game without Durant.
With him officially ruled out of the series opener, the Warriors went from 1-point favorites to 1-points underdogs for a Game 1 that’s essentially a pick’em. On the road without Durant, Golden State appears vulnerable.
The Warriors will have fresher legs since they swept Portland and haven’t taken the court for a taxing game since May 20, but there’s certainly a chance that they’re rusty and struggle to adjust in a building they don’t often visit. The atmosphere is certain to be raucous, but Golden State is certainly accustomed to quieting excited crowds. They’re just not very experienced at having to do so in a series opener, which VegasInsider.com NBA expert Kevin Rogers points out.
“For only the second time since Steve Kerr took over as head coach of the Warriors in 2014, Golden State will begin a playoff series on the road. The Warriors traveled to Houston to open the Western Conference Finals in 2018 and not only won the opener by 13 points, but closed out the series with a road win in Game 7,” Rogers said. “Golden State owns a perfect 4-0 record in NBA Finals openers the last four seasons, although two of those victories came in overtime. The Raptors have struggled in franchise history in home Game 1’s by compiling a dreadful 2-7 SU/ATS record since 2014, but one of those victories came in the second round this season against Philadelphia.”
The Warriors last played in Toronto back on November 29, losing 131-128 in overtime without Stephen Curry, who missed that game with a groin injury. Durant scored 51 points in the loss, which was one of those early-season games that set the stage for things to come. Curry was back for the blowout loss suffered 13 days later in Oakland but scored just 10 points, so he’s going to need to catch an early rhythm against pesky defenders in Kyle Lowry, Danny Green and Leonard.
Although Toronto swept the season series despite not having the services of Marc Gasol, it had lost 16 of the previous 18 meetings against the Warriors over the previous decade. Golden State hadn’t lost at ScotiaBank Arena (formerly the Air Canada Centre) since 2014 before this season’s meeting, and they’ll be looking to run their road playoff winning streak to four games here.
Without Durant available and DeMarcus Cousins unlikely to play a major role if he does return since he’s had such limited practice time, Draymond Green must stay out of foul trouble in Game 1 since he’ll be counted on to help defend Leonard while also rebounding and leading the break, serving as the point forward to help get Curry and Klay Thompson quality looks from the perimeter. One of the most crucial factors set to unfold in this opener is seeing how he controls his temper considering there are plenty of agitators available in Serge Ibaka, Gasol and Pascal Siakam who will be baiting him in a hostile atmosphere.
The Warriors are going to need the likes of Kevon Looney and Jordan Bell to continue helping Green out in the post, but he’s going to need to be the most productive guy out there. Green has been masterful against Houston and Portland with Durant sidelined, playing the role of conduit to make Golden State tick over thee past few years and must do so again, which makes him my pick for Finals MVP. He’s getting 10-to-1 odds at Sportsbook.ag. Curry is listed as the favorite considering how dominant he was in closing out the Rockets and Trail Blazers, but there’s just not much value in backing the favorite on this type of bet. I’d ride the other Splash Brother over Curry with Klay Thompson yielding a 20-to-1 payout.
If you’re all in on the Raptors, you’re banking on Leonard’s quad and knee holding up, not to mention Siakam’s health continuing to improve. Leonard has been brilliant despite playing through a quad injury that has limited his explosiveness, but avoiding a Game 7 and a return trip to Milwaukee has helped matters and he’s saying all the right things about feeling healthy entering this series. Siakam, Gasol, Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet and Ibaka all stepped up significantly to help put away the Bucks and will be counted on to continue playing well at home in order to get off to a strong start and make this a competitive NBA Finals.
On paper, there’s no reason they shouldn’t hold up against a Durant-less Warriors team if everyone plays to their potential. The pick’em is fair and not a trap line. If Leonard is healthy, he’ll have Green exhausted by game’s end. There’s no question the Toronto frontcourt is deeper and more talented. Can the guards make enough shots and get enough stops against one of the most prolific backcourts the NBA has ever seen? How will the feeling-out process come into play?
The total for Game 1 opened at 215 and the number has dropped to 213 as of Wednesday. VegasInsider.com NBA expert Chris David offered up his thoughts on the series opener.
“Total bettors could be scratching their heads in Game 1 since we’ve seen conflicting trends for both clubs in the postseason,” said David. “Golden State has watched the ‘over’ go 10-6 in the playoffs and that includes a 6-2 mark on the road. Meanwhile, the ‘under’ has gone 12-6 (67%) in 18 postseason games and ten of those contests were played at Scotiabank Arena where the low side went 6-4.
“In the two regular season encounters between the pair, the totals ranged from 223 to 226 ½ and both games had key starters missing and that trend will continue on Thursday with KD out for Golden State. Durant’s absence is worth a few points to the total but it’s apparent that the oddsmakers are respecting the Raptors defense after watching the unit stifle Milwaukee in the East Finals. We’re going to find out very quickly if the inept production from the Bucks was based on the Raptors defense or just poor shooting.”
Pace will play a huge role since Curry and Thompson will let the 3-ball fly whenever they have clean looks to avoid bogging down against the Raptors’ halfcourt defense, but they’re not likely to get away with coming down and consistently launch 30-footers. It will also be interesting to see who comes off utilizing a traditional center first since Andrew Bogut and Damian Jones are available for Steve Kerr to throw out there against Gasol, but both teams will likely employ small-ball looks throughout most of the series. Ibaka was incredibly productive off the bench and was an x-factor in beating the Bucks, while Green, Looney and Bell are all capable of holding down the five-spot to get more shooting on the floor.
“Golden State was ranked first in scoring offense (117.5) on the road this season and that average jumped to 118.8 PPG in eight playoff tilts away from home. In 15 road games versus the East this season, the Warriors averaged 114.8 PPG but they did lay some eggs against playoff teams in losses to the Magic (103-96) and Pistons (111-102),” said David. “Scoring on the Raptors won’t be easy and they’ve been great defensively at home (95.8 PPG) in the postseason albeit against less explosive teams. I believe Toronto will strike first in this series and it’s going to do so with defense, which makes me lean to the ‘under’ in Game 1.”
The Raptors have won five consecutive home games and are 8-2 in Toronto this postseason after going 32-9 during the regular season, the third-best mark in the league. Golden State tied the Bucks for the regular-season’s top road mark and are 6-2 in opposing gyms in these playoffs, beating all of their foes at least once. That’s all it’s going to take to significantly alter this series since it would steal away homecourt advantage with Durant likely to join the party.
__________________
NBA
Dunkel
Thursday, May 30
Golden State @ Toronto
Game 521-522
May 30, 2019 @ 9:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Golden State
130.705
Toronto
128.382
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Golden State
by 2 1/2
223
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
by 1
215
Dunkel Pick:
Golden State
(+1); Over
__________________
NBA
Long Sheet
Thursday, May 30
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOLDEN STATE (69 - 29) at TORONTO (70 - 30) - 5/30/2019, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GOLDEN STATE is 42-54 ATS (-17.4 Units) in all games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 23-36 ATS (-16.6 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 52-67 ATS (-21.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 34-49 ATS (-19.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 19-28 ATS (-11.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 35-43 ATS (-12.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games revenging a home loss vs opponent this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 93-66 ATS (+20.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
TORONTO is 215-269 ATS (-80.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 3-2 against the spread versus GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 4-2 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
__________________
NBA
Thursday, May 30
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Golden State Warriors
Golden State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Golden State's last 9 games
Golden State is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Golden State's last 6 games on the road
Golden State is 15-7-1 ATS in its last 23 games when playing Toronto
Golden State is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Toronto
Golden State is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Golden State's last 8 games when playing Toronto
Golden State is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Golden State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Golden State's last 5 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Toronto Raptors
Toronto is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Toronto is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Toronto's last 19 games
Toronto is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Toronto is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Toronto is 7-15-1 ATS in its last 23 games when playing Golden State
Toronto is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games when playing Golden State
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Toronto's last 8 games when playing Golden State
Toronto is 4-7-1 ATS in its last 12 games when playing at home against Golden State
Toronto is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Golden State
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing at home against Golden State
__________________