Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Tuesday 5/21/19
Leonard scored 36 in Game 3 OT win; other Toronto starters shot 43.2% from floor, big upgrade from previous games, though their subs were only 10-33. Antetokounmpo fouled out in OT in Game 3; Bucks were +3 when he was on court, -9 when he was off floor. Bucks won six of last eight games with Toronto; they won/covered three of last four visits to Canada. Seven of last ten series games went over. Milwaukee won six of its last seven games overall, scoring 116.8 ppg; over is 7-4 in their last 11 games. Underdogs covered seven of last ten series games.
By Chris David
Eastern Conference Finals – Game 4 (Bucks lead 2-1)
Milwaukee at Toronto (TNT, 8:35 p.m. ET)
The Raptors needed 58 minutes and a huge night from Kawhi Leonard to capture a 118-112 double-overtime victory over the Bucks in Game 3 on Sunday. With the win, Toronto cut Milwaukee’s lead in the Eastern Conference Finals to 2-1.
Leonard played a game-high 52 minutes and finished with 36 points, nine rebounds and five assists while shooting 11-of-25 from the field. Also logging 50-plus minutes for Toronto was Pascal Siakam, who had the opportunity to end the game in regulation but he missed two free throws and Milwaukee forced the extra session with a game-tying shot.
Toronto covered Game 3 as a 2 ½-point favorite and it’s fair to say that the right team won. The Bucks couldn’t buy a shot from the field (37.3%) and they also struggled from the free throw line (66.7%). Milwaukee did have the chance to steal the win in overtime but the shots continued to miss and the club didn’t receive a great offense effort from its best player, Giannis Antetokounmpo. This year’s likely league MVP finished with 12 points on 5-of-16 shooting and he fouled out in the second overtime.
NBA expert Tony Mejia of VegasInsider.com analyzed the performance of the Bucks All-Star in Game 3 and others on both squads.
He said, “Giannis Antetokounmpo finished with 23 rebounds but missed 11 of his 16 shots and has to get used to playing decoy the rest of the way if Kawhi Leonard will continue to serve as the primary defender against him. Toronto’s defensive game plan has centered on making sure Antentokounmpo sees multiple bodies whenever he faces up to drive towards the rim and has really cut off his opportunities in transition, so others have to emerge. It says a lot about how difficult it is to stop the Bucks that Game 3 went to double-overtime despite the starting backcourt of Eric Bledsoe and Khris Middleton combining to finish 6-for-32 by each missing 13 of their 16 shots, shooting just 2-for-12 from beyond the arc.”
While the starting backcourt of the Bucks struggled for 20 total points, head coach Mike Budenholzer got a huge lift from their backups. George Hill (24) and Malcolm Brogdon (20) combined for 44 points off the bench and will likely see more minutes if the starters can’t connect again.
The shooting woes were contagious at the Scotiabank Arena for both teams as Toronto has more misses than makes.
Mejia explained, “Danny Green continues to struggle for Toronto and he missed eight of his nine shots in Game 3, so it’s hard to forecast a second consecutive ‘over’ in this series considering multiple overtime periods were required to eclipse the posted total on Sunday night and both teams are gaining increased familiarity with one another. Unless word comes down that Toronto head coach Nick Nurse is contemplating a lineup change and set to utilize Norman Powell in the starting five, riding the ‘under’ seems like the way to go.”
I felt that Nurse and the Raptors needed to muck it up in Game 3 and capture a low-scoring win and they accomplished that objective for the most part. Unfortunately for Toronto, the oddsmakers don’t believe the club can produce that effort again on Tuesday.
Milwaukee opened as a one-point road favorite and the number has risen to -2 ½ as of Tuesday morning. NBA handicapper Kevin Rogers of VegasInsider.com talks about the rarity of this number.
He said, “The Raptors are listed as home underdogs for the first time this season and they haven’t received points at Scotiabank Arena since a 108-105 win against Houston on March 9, 2018 as three-point ‘dogs. Toronto was last a playoff home ‘dog in Game 4 of the 2017 Eastern Conference Finals against Cleveland and it lost 109-102 when receiving seven points.”
Rogers also noted how the point-spread hasn’t mattered for Milwaukee. “The Bucks failed to cover in these playoffs for only the second time in 12 games even though they stretched the Raptors to double-overtime in Game 3. Milwaukee has covered in all 10 playoff wins, including a 2-0 ATS mark as a road favorite in the opening round against Detroit.”
Overall, the Bucks are 4-1 both SU and ATS on the road in this year’s playoffs and the ‘over’ has gone 4-1 in those games. Including Sunday’s win, Toronto has gone 9-4 SU and 7-6 ATS at home in this year’s playoffs.
It certainly wouldn’t be surprising to see Toronto even up the series but Milwaukee has shown incredible bounce-back numbers and you can see why it’s a serious threat to win this year’s NBA Finals.
During the regular season, the Bucks posted the best overall record and they accomplished that feat by staying away from losing skids. They only dropped back-to-back games once this season and they’re a league-best 21-1 (95%) after a loss. What’s more impressive is they went 18-4 (81%) against the spread in those games. After losing Game 1 of the second round to the Celtics by 22 points (112-90), Milwaukee rebounded for a 123-102 win and cover in Game 2.
As Mejia mentioned above, bettors on the ‘under’ were squeezed on Sunday as the game went to double-overtime and that was the first time that the ‘over’ cashed in this series.
The Game 4 total opened as high as 220 and most books are now holding 216 and I agree with the move down.
Milwaukee’s offense, which hasn’t been clicking lately, always has the ability to help you cash ‘over’ tickets but Toronto’s attack makes you pump the brakes. The Raptors have scored over 100 points in all three games of this series but it’s been a major struggle to get there. The club is shooting 39 percent from the field and the lack of scoring depth outside of Leonard has been noticeable since the second round versus Philadelphia. Barring another marathon, Toronto’s Team Total Under (106 ½) seems more than doable.
Despite cutting into the series deficit, the Raptors are still 9/2 odds (Bet $100 to win $450) on the series while the Bucks are healthy 1/6 favorites (Bet $100 to win $16).
Make a note that Golden State clinched a spot in the NBA Finals again it’s listed as a 1/2 favorite (Bet $100 to win $50) to pull off the 3-peat. Milwaukee is +170 while Toronto is a 20/1 choice and bettors should be aware that the two clubs in the Eastern Conference will have homecourt advantage in the upcoming series.
Game 5 of this best-of-seven matchup will take place on Thursday from the Fiserv Forum.
NBA
Dunkel
Tuesday, May 21
Golden State @ Portland
Game 501-502
May 20, 2019 @ 9:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Golden State
128.775
Portland
120.850
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Golden State
by 8
218
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Golden State
by 3 1/2
217
Dunkel Pick:
Golden State
(-3 1/2); Under
__________________
NBA
Long Sheet
Tuesday, May 21
MILWAUKEE (70 - 24) at TORONTO (67 - 30) - 5/21/2019, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 57-34 ATS (+19.6 Units) in all games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 48-30 ATS (+15.0 Units) as a favorite this season.
MILWAUKEE is 28-16 ATS (+10.4 Units) in road games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) on Tuesday nights this season.
MILWAUKEE is 144-105 ATS (+28.5 Units) in road games against Atlantic division opponents since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all playoff games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
MILWAUKEE is 20-6 ATS (+13.4 Units) after allowing 115 points or more this season.
MILWAUKEE is 26-15 ATS (+9.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
MILWAUKEE is 47-29 ATS (+15.1 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
MILWAUKEE is 29-18 ATS (+9.2 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
MILWAUKEE is 46-27 ATS (+16.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
MILWAUKEE is 27-16 ATS (+9.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
TORONTO is 43-56 ATS (-18.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 24-36 ATS (-15.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
MILWAUKEE is 11-9 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 11-9 straight up against MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
10 of 20 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
__________________
NBA
Tuesday, May 21
Trend Report
Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Milwaukee is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Milwaukee's last 19 games
Milwaukee is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Milwaukee is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Milwaukee's last 8 games on the road
Milwaukee is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Toronto
Milwaukee is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Milwaukee's last 10 games when playing Toronto
Milwaukee is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Milwaukee is 5-11 SU in its last 16 games when playing on the road against Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 7 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Toronto Raptors
Toronto is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Toronto is 16-7 SU in its last 23 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Toronto's last 16 games
Toronto is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Toronto is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
Toronto is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Milwaukee
Toronto is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Toronto's last 10 games when playing Milwaukee
Toronto is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
Toronto is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 7 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
__________________