Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Monday 5/20/19
How badly do the Warriors want some time off? Win here gets them some free time. Portland led last two games by 15-13 points at halftime, lost both; now comes word that Lillard is playing thru separated ribs that happened in Game 2. Lillard/McCollum combined to go 38-108 from floor in first three games— can’t beat Golden State that way. Curry has 73 points the last two games; Green had a triple-double in Game 3. Warriors’ bench was combined +31 in Game 3, and two of their subs are starting now, with Durant/Cousins out. Portland is 3-3 vs spread in last six games as an underdog; they were favored Saturday, but not here.
Monday, 20 May 2019 • 06:00 PM
501 GOLDEN STATE @ 502 PORTLAND
Play on PORTLAND in the first half in All games when playing against a team with a winning record
The record is 21 Wins and 6 this season (+14.4 units)
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Kevin Rogers
There isn’t much that can stop the Warriors on their way to a fifth straight Western Conference title. Not even playing without Kevin Durant for four consecutive games, including three in the conference finals. And rallying from a 17-point deficit in Game 2 and an 18-point deficit in Game 3 is old hat for Golden State, who is looking to knock out Portland for the third time in the last four postseasons.
The Blazers built a 62-45 advantage in the second quarter of Game 2 at Oracle Arena, but Portland was limited to 46 points after halftime in a 114-111 setback. Portland returned to the Moda Center for Game 3 on Saturday night seeking its sixth victory in seven home playoff games and an opportunity to sneak back into this series.
For the second straight game, the Blazers came out on fire as they led the champs, 60-42 late in the first half. Once again, the Warriors made the necessary “halftime adjustments” and outscored Portland in the second half, 57-33 to grab a 110-99 victory and improve to 5-2 away from Oakland in the playoffs.
No KD, no problem for the Warriors as Golden State rode the three-headed monster of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green to its 11th playoff victory in 12 tries against Portland since 2016. Curry continued to torch the Blazers by scoring at least 36 points for the third consecutive game in this series, while hitting 6-of-16 attempts from three-point range. Green posted his third triple-double of the postseason with 20 points, 13 rebounds, and 12 assists, while Thompson scored 19 points, representing the only three Warriors to reach double-figures.
The key to Portland’s success in this series (or any other series) is the backcourt duo of Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum combining for at least 50 points. The Blazers went 7-1 in the first two rounds against the Thunder and Nuggets when Lillard and McCollum topped the 50-point mark. Through the first three games against Golden State, the Portland pair scored 36, 45, and 42 points, which has not been a recipe for success.
In Game 3, Lillard continued his recent playoff struggles by hitting 5-of-18 shots and scoring 19 points, while McCollum put up 23 points, including a 2-of-10 effort from three-point range. The starting frontcourt of Maurice Harkless and Al-Farouq Aminu combined for only eight points, while Portland missed 24 three-point attempts and misfired on 13 free throws.
Since 2015, the Warriors own a 5-3 SU/ATS when leading a playoff series, 3-0 with all eight contests coming away from Oracle Arena. Golden State last swept the Western Conference finals in 2017 when the Warriors wiped out the Spurs by 14 points in Game 4. All five of these victories by the Warriors in this span came by double-digits, including a 25-point rout of the Blazers in the 2017 first round.
NBA expert Tony Mejia checks in with his thoughts on Game 4, “The knowledge that Lillard is playing through separated ribs isn’t going to affect the Warriors’ game plan. Golden State is still going to send extra bodies his way to keep him from getting comfortable and make others beat him. At this point, given the second-half droughts that have impacted this series, Steve Kerr is quite comfortable with his strategy. Terry Stotts has already tweaked things by starting Meyers Leonard instead of Enes Kanter to run offense through him along the perimeter and has altered his rotation some."
“Lillard and others have missed good looks, so being on the verge of a sweep for the third straight year has been a collective collapse. For that reason, the Blazers remain dangerous, because it’s going to be very important to this group that they don’t go out at home or have to think about getting the broom treatment for another summer. If Green can’t manage to raise the Warriors’ intensity level the way he was able to in Game 3, taking points for pride’s sake shouldn’t be dismissed. We all saw the Blazers’ spirit get broken in Game 3, but the Warriors will have to beat them back for another 48 minutes on Monday night. That’s likely to be easier said than done. Teams facing a sweep against Golden State have gone 2-4 over the past few seasons,” Mejia said.
After closing as a 2 ½-point underdog in Game 3, the Warriors are flipped to a four-point favorite in Monday’s potential close-out game. Durant will be sidelined once again for Golden State to no one’s surprise and likely will not suit up at the earliest until the opener of the NBA Finals
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NBA
Dunkel
Monday, May 20
Golden State @ Portland
Game 501-502
May 20, 2019 @ 9:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Golden State
128.775
Portland
120.850
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Golden State
by 8
218
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Golden State
by 3 1/2
217
Dunkel Pick:
Golden State
(-3 1/2); Under
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NBA
Long Sheet
Monday, May 20
GOLDEN STATE (68 - 29) at PORTLAND (61 - 36) - 5/20/2019, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GOLDEN STATE is 42-54 ATS (-17.4 Units) in all games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 36-49 ATS (-17.9 Units) as a favorite this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 14-23 ATS (-11.3 Units) after a win by 10 points or more this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 23-36 ATS (-16.6 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 52-67 ATS (-21.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 34-49 ATS (-19.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 19-28 ATS (-11.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 35-43 ATS (-12.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
PORTLAND is 97-79 ATS (+10.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PORTLAND is 50-37 ATS (+9.3 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
PORTLAND is 51-34 ATS (+13.6 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 93-66 ATS (+20.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
PORTLAND is 9-9 against the spread versus GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 14-4 straight up against PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
10 of 18 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NBA
Monday, May 20
Trend Report
Golden State Warriors
Golden State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Golden State is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Golden State's last 5 games on the road
Golden State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Portland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Golden State's last 6 games when playing Portland
Golden State is 15-8 ATS in its last 23 games when playing on the road against Portland
Golden State is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Portland
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Golden State's last 14 games when playing on the road against Portland
Portland Trail Blazers
Portland is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
Portland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Portland is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Portland's last 5 games at home
Portland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Golden State
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Portland's last 6 games when playing Golden State
Portland is 8-15 ATS in its last 23 games when playing at home against Golden State
Portland is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Golden State
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Portland's last 14 games when playing at home against Golden State
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Golden State Warriors vs. Portland Trail Blazers
The Golden State Warriors made big third quarter runs a staple of their success over the last five seasons, and the Western Conference finals is proving to be no different. The Warriors used their patented second-half surge to take a commanding 3-0 lead on Saturday and can book their fifth consecutive trip to the NBA Finals with a win when they visit the Portland Trail Blazers for Game 4 on Monday.
Golden State trailed by as many as 18 points late in the second quarter and went into the half down 66-53 on Saturday before outscoring the Trail Blazers 29-13 in the third and opening things further in the fourth en route to a 110-99 triumph. "We've been down this road before many times," Golden State coach Steve Kerr told reporters. "We've been up 2-0 quite a bit and I don't think we've been that great in Game 3s over the years. That's all we talked about the last two days was we have an amazing opportunity to seize control here. That's what I think this was about, respecting our opponent, knowing the magical run they have been on, how tough they are to beat in this building, and understanding that this is the game." Portland, which squandered a 15-point halftime advantage in Game 2, totaled 33 points in the second half of Game 3 and put the loss squarely on the offense. "Our offense fell apart," Trail Blazers coach Terry Stotts told reporters. "We missed some shots. Took some tough shots. Didn't move the ball as well. They were scoring, so we were taking it out of the net. Didn't get any transition. So, I said at the beginning of the series, to beat Golden State, you've got to be able to score. Scoring 33 in the second half is not going to do it."
TV: 9 p.m. ET, ESPN
ABOUT THE WARRIORS: Golden State power forward Draymond Green scored a postseason-high 20 points to go with 13 rebounds and 12 assists on Saturday in his third triple-double of the playoffs. "I don't even know what to say about Draymond," Kerr told reporters. "He was like a wrecking ball out there. He was just destroying everything in his path. The pace that he was generating was incredible, and it just seemed like he never got tired. ... It's one of the best games I've ever seen Draymond play." Green helped key the third-quarter rally while superstar Stephen Curry poured in a game-high 36 points to reach 30 for the fourth time in as many games since star forward Kevin Durant (calf) went down.
ABOUT THE TRAIL BLAZERS: All-Star point guard Damian Lillard has yet to get rolling offensively in the series and struggled to 19 points on 5-of-18 shooting in Game 3. "I think the double teams, obviously the trapping is designed to get the ball out of his hands, so he doesn't have the same freedom," Stotts told reporters of Lillard. "I think they are good one-on-one defenders. You know, some of it's missing shots. You know, he gets to the rim and he hasn't finished around the rim as well, but I don't know if it's one thing." Lillard is shooting 32.6 percent from the floor in the series and committed 14 turnovers in the first three games.
BUZZER BEATERS
1. Warriors C Damion Jones made his first start of the postseason on Saturday and went scoreless while committing three fouls in three minutes.
2. Portland SG CJ McCollum is 6-of-22 from 3-point range in the series.
3. Golden State SF Andre Iguodala (lower leg) left Saturday's game and is scheduled for an MRI exam on Sunday.
PREDICTION: Trail Blazers 112, Warriors 110
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