Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Sunday 5/19/19
Milwaukee was up 25 at the half Friday, grabbed 2-0 series lead; Bucks have had a lead of 20+ points in seven of their 11 playoff games this spring- they were +5 in 13:00 Antetokounmpo sat out Friday. Toronto has to win the minutes he is on bench, or this will be very short series. Bucks won six of last seven games with Toronto; they won/covered last three visits to Canada. Six of last nine series games went over. Milwaukee won its last six games overall, scoring 117.8 ppg; over is 6-4 in their last ten games. Underdogs covered seven of last nine series games.
Kevin Rogers
The most dominating team from a pointspread standpoint in the playoffs is the top-seeded Bucks, who owns a 10-1 ATS record. Milwaukee travels to Toronto for Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals seeking a 3-0 series advantage at Scotiabank Arena this evening.
After the Bucks rallied for a narrow cover in the series opener, Milwaukee jumped out to a commanding 25-point halftime lead in Thursday’s Game 2 at Fiserv Forum. In spite of a 39-point third quarter for Toronto, the Raptors never really threatened in a 125-103 setback as 6 ½-point underdogs to fall into a 2-0 series hole.
Milwaukee’s offense topped the 30+ point mark in a quarter only once in Game 1, but scored 30 or more in three separate quarters in Game 2, including a 35-point output in the opening 12 minutes. MVP candidate Giannis Antetokounmpo led Milwaukee with 30 points and 17 rebounds, while three Bucks came off the bench to produce double-figure scoring, paced by 17 points from Eryan Ilyasova. For the second straight game, the Bucks weren’t great from three-point range by shooting 13-of-41, but knocked down 26 free throws and won third Game 2 of a series this postseason by more than 20 points.
Kawhi Leonard led all scorers with 31 points for Toronto, although he connected on just one three-pointer in four attempts. Kyle Lowry was terrific in the series opener with 30 points, but the Raptors’ guard continued his inconsistent playoff ways by scoring 15 points in Game 2, including a 2-of-9 effort from downtown. The only other Raptor to score in double-figures was Norman Powell with 14 off the bench as Pascal Siakam scored fewer than 10 points for only the second time in the playoffs.
The Raptors actually shot better in Game 2 than Game 1 from the floor (42% compared to 37%), but Toronto managed only 39 points in the opening half. Somehow, Toronto equaled their first half output in the third quarter, as the Raptors drilled five three-pointers during that 39-point spurt after halftime. The Raptors were able to trim a 28-point deficit in the third down to 13, but that’s as close as they got to fall into their first 2-0 hole on the road in the playoffs since the 2017 second round against Cleveland.
Toronto started the postseason with a solid 4-2 ATS record, but the Atlantic division champions have gone backwards in that department recently by covering in just two of the past eight games. The Raptors return north of the border trying to improve on a 4-3 ATS mark at Scotiabank Arena in the playoffs, while not allowing over 100 points at home in the past six postseason contests.
After watching the two teams combine for 228 points in Game 2, the oddsmakers opened the Game 3 total at 220 ½ and that’s the highest number posted in the first three games of this series. Chris David weighs in on the adjustment and provides his lean for Sunday’s total.
He said, “I’m not buying the move up by the oddsmakers and I believe we’re in for a grinder on Sunday even though Milwaukee has the potential to explode offensively on any given night. It’s crazy to realize that the Bucks are averaging 116.5 PPG in this series and the 3-point shooting has been off by their standards. Plus, that’s against a very solid Raptors defense that was allowing 96.9 PPG in the playoffs. What goes unnoticed about Milwaukee is its defense, which is only surrendering 101.4 PPG in the 14 postseason games. The worst efforts from that unit came in Game 1 of the second round, allowing 112 to Boston and the opener in this series when Toronto scored 100 points. Both those results came off layoffs and the Bucks looked flat and rusty. In every other playoff matchup on one or two days of rest, the defense has been very solid.”
“I’m assuming Raptors head coach Nick Nurse has to know by now that he can’t win a shootout, so I would expect him to slow down the game at home and muck it up. That approach has worked with Toronto so far, with the club allowing 90.4 PPG in five playoff wins at home. The Bucks came away with two road wins in this year’s regular season meetings between the pair from Canada but they only averaged 104.5 PPG. That was enough to get past Toronto, who struggled with an average of 95.5 PPG and not surprisingly the ‘under’ connected in both of those games. I’m expecting a similar outcome here and along with the game ‘under’ on Sunday, I believe a look at the Bucks Team Total Under (108 ½) is in play too,” David added.
Toronto has watched the ‘under’ go 5-2 at home in the playoffs while Milwaukee is 3-1 to the ‘over’ as a visitor in the postseason.
NBA expert Tony Mejia provides his thoughts headed into Game 3, “The Raptors have to flush Game 2 and concentrate on executing at home, where they’ve shown all season that they can beat anybody. While a lot went wrong in Milwaukee, Toronto was able to keep the Bucks from imposing their will in the third quarter, which is where the East’s top seed had gained the most separation through the first two rounds of this postseason.”
“It lost the third in Game 1 by a single point and made a run coming out of the locker room on Friday night, ultimately winning the quarter 39-31. Nurse can also take solace in Powell and Fred VanVleet and demonstrating a pulse since his team’s bench had been virtually non-existent for weeks now. At home, facing a must-win situation, this could be a spot where the Raps finally see it all come together exactly one week following the best moment in franchise history to keep Leonard’s Game 7 heroics against the 76ers from becoming a token consolation prize. Riding Toronto in the first and third quarters seems like the play here,” Mejia notes.
The Bucks are listed as a 2 ½-point underdog heading into Game 3, as Milwaukee won in both instances as a ‘dog at Boston in the second round. Mike Budenholzer’s team own a solid 9-2 ATS mark when receiving points this season, while winning in both regular season matchups at Toronto, each as a ‘dog.
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NBA
Dunkel
Sunday, May 19
Milwaukee @ Toronto
Game 549-550
May 19, 2019 @ 7:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Milwaukee
121.609
Toronto
130.786
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Toronto
by 9
223
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
by 3
220 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Toronto
(-3); Over
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NBA
Long Sheet
Sunday, May 19
MILWAUKEE (70 - 23) at TORONTO (66 - 30) - 5/19/2019, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 70-112 ATS (-53.2 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 57-33 ATS (+20.7 Units) in all games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 44-30 ATS (+11.0 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.
MILWAUKEE is 28-15 ATS (+11.5 Units) in road games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 24-13 ATS (+9.7 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.
MILWAUKEE is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) against Atlantic division opponents this season.
MILWAUKEE is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all playoff games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 31-18 ATS (+11.2 Units) after a win by 10 points or more this season.
MILWAUKEE is 32-23 ATS (+6.7 Units) after scoring 115 points or more this season.
MILWAUKEE is 26-14 ATS (+10.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
MILWAUKEE is 47-28 ATS (+16.2 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
MILWAUKEE is 29-17 ATS (+10.3 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
MILWAUKEE is 46-26 ATS (+17.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
MILWAUKEE is 27-15 ATS (+10.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
TORONTO is 34-42 ATS (-12.2 Units) as a favorite this season.
TORONTO is 6-14 ATS (-9.4 Units) against Central division opponents this season.
TORONTO is 18-32 ATS (-17.2 Units) in home games revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
TORONTO is 42-56 ATS (-19.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 23-36 ATS (-16.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 35-43 ATS (-12.3 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
MILWAUKEE is 11-8 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 10-9 straight up against MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
10 of 19 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NBA
Sunday, May 19
Trend Report
Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Milwaukee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Milwaukee's last 18 games
Milwaukee is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Milwaukee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Milwaukee's last 7 games on the road
Milwaukee is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Toronto
Milwaukee is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Milwaukee's last 9 games when playing Toronto
Milwaukee is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Milwaukee is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 6 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Toronto Raptors
Toronto is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Toronto is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Toronto's last 15 games
Toronto is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Toronto is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto's last 7 games at home
Toronto is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Milwaukee
Toronto is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Toronto's last 9 games when playing Milwaukee
Toronto is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
Toronto is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing at home against Milwaukee
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