Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Thursday 5/16/19
Golden State won Game 1 by 22 without Durant/Cousins; Lillard/McCollum combined to go 11-31 Tuesday- they have to be tired after the 7-game Denver series. Portland won four of last seven games with the Warriors; Blazers are 2-3 vs spread in last five visits to Oakland. Portland is 3-4 in its last seven road games (3-4 vs spread); over is 6-3 in their last nine games. Six of last ten series games went over. Warriors played six subs 11:00+ Tuesday; Portland’s bench was 7-28 from the floor. Golden State covered two of its last five home games. Over is 5-3-1 in their last nine games.
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Golden State Warriors Preview and Predictions 05-16-2019 in NBA
Stephen Curry was a dominating force in the series opener and the star point guard looks to follow up his strong outing when the Golden State Warriors host the Portland Trail Blazers in Game 2 of the Western Conference finals on Thursday. Curry matched his postseason career high of nine 3-pointers and scored 36 points as the Warriors rolled to a 116-94 home win on Tuesday.
Curry took several uncontested 3-point shots during his fourth 30-point effort of the postseason and he is feeling in a groove after struggling at times earlier in the playoffs. "I know what I'm capable of on the floor," Curry told reporters. "The situation calls for me to be a little bit more aggressive and hopefully that'll continue. "Obviously it's nice to see the ball go in." Portland coach Terry Stotts bristled when reporters suggested he might need to change the strategy of defending Curry but star point guard Damian Lillard saw that something needs to change. "That was very poor execution defensively on our part," Lillard said. "Just having our bigs back that far; understanding the team we are playing against, they are not going to shoot midrange jumpers and try to attack the rim. If they see the opportunity to shoot a 3, they are going to tell you. They shoot it at a high clip. We've got to bring our guys up and run them off the line, and (Tuesday) they were setting solid screens and coming off shooting practice shots."
TV: 9 p.m. ET, ESPN
ABOUT THE TRAIL BLAZERS: In addition to shoring up their defense, Portland also needs to work on trimming down its turnovers (21 in Game 1) and improve its 3-point shooting (7-for-28). "I think we played a terrible game and we still had a chance going into the fourth quarter," shooting guard CJ McCollum told reporters, referring to trailing by just six after three quarters. "So we need to tighten some things up and look forward to the game on Thursday." Lillard scored 19 points in Game 1 but was just 4-of-12 shooting and committed seven turnovers while McCollum, forward Maurice Harkless and swingman Rodney Hood each scored 17 points.
ABOUT THE WARRIORS: Star small forward Kevin Durant (calf) is slated to be re-evaluated on Thursday but there doesn't appear to be any realistic expectation that he will be cleared to play in Game 2. Shooting guard Klay Thompson added 26 points in the opener as Golden State played loose despite not having a cog like Durant on the floor. "You see the morale, like everybody's shoulders are up and smiles," Curry said. "Just aggressiveness all over the floor, whether that's setting a screen or swing, swing or cutting hard, all that type of stuff. When you create good shots that way, it's fun for everybody."
BUZZER BEATERS
1. The Warriors were 17-of-33 from 3-point range in Game 1.
2. Portland C Enes Kanter, who is playing with a separated left shoulder, had 16 rebounds in Game 1 for his eighth double-digit effort of the postseason.
3. Golden State PF Draymond Green had 10 rebounds in the opener to reach double digits for the sixth straight contest.
PREDICTION: Warriors 125, Trail Blazers 113
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By Kevin Rogers
Western Conference Finals – Game 2
No. 3 Portland at No. 1 Golden State (ESPN, 9:05 p.m. ET)
2018-19 Regular Season (Tied 2-2, Over 2-2)
Nov. 23 - Warriors (-1.5) 125 vs. Blazers 97 (Over 218.5)
Dec. 27 – Blazers (+8.5) 110 at Warriors 109 - OT (Under 227)
Dec. 29 – Warriors (-5) 115 at Blazers 105 (Under 226)
Feb. 13 – Blazers (+2) 129 vs. Warriors 107 (Over 235)
Some (or most) may argue that we’ve already witnessed the Western Conference Finals as the Warriors eliminated the Rockets in six games. Golden State is now three wins away from a fifth straight Western Conference title as the Warriors took care of the Trail Blazers in Game 1 on Tuesday, 116-94. The Warriors easily cashed as 7 ½-point favorites and did so without the services of Kevin Durant.
Golden State closed out Houston without Durant and jumped out to 1-0 lead over Portland with KD sidelined as he continues to nurse a calf injury. Durant will likely miss Game 2, but the Warriors’ squad that went to a pair of NBA Finals without the former Thunder star showed they just were fine in Game 1. Golden State led by seven heading into the fourth quarter, but outscored Portland, 39-23 in the final 12 minutes to improve to 17-1 in playoff series openers under Steve Kerr.
Only three Warriors posted double-figure scoring numbers in Game 1, led by Stephen Curry’s 36 points, which included nine three-pointers. After being held scoreless in the first half of the series clinching win at Houston, Curry has scored 69 points in past six quarters, while Golden State actually converted more three-pointers (17) in Game 1 than free throws (15).
Five Blazers scored at least 10 points in the opener, but Portland will not beat Golden State if the backcourt duo of Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum continue to combine for 36 points. McCollum put up 17 points after a pair of terrific performances in the last two wins against Denver in the second round (67 points), but Lillard continued to struggle from the floor. The Oakland native did lead Portland with 19 points, but nine of those points came at the foul line, while Lillard shot 4-of-12 and is 7-of-29 in the past two games.
Total bettors were expecting fireworks in Game 1 as the number closed as high as 221 after an opener of 218. The lean was incorrect and Portland’s inability to connect from the field helped the ‘under’ connect easily. For Game 2, the oddsmakers sent out an opener of 218 and the betting public hasn’t shown a lean one way or another as of Wednesday evening.
Chris David offered up his total thoughts on the second installment from Oracle Arena. He said, “Playing in the Bay Area in the playoffs has proven to be much more difficult than a regular season game and Portland felt that wrath on Tuesday. The result wasn’t surprising, considering we just watched a more offensively skilled Houston team crumble three times in the conference semifinals after winning there twice during the regular season.”
“Including the 94 points scored in Game 1, Portland has been held to 101.7 PPG in their last seven trips to Oracle. It’s safe to say that they’ll need to eclipse that average to steal a road win in this series or put on a phenomenal defensive effort. Is it possible? In their three playoff road wins, the Trail Blazers gave up 96, 90 and 98. In the four losses, 120.5 PPG and that includes the 116 allowed on Tuesday.”
The one positive from the opener for the Blazers is that they got to the free throw stripe 31 times in the loss and they made 27. Another positive for Portland is that it’s bounced back strong off poor shooting nights. Since the All-Star break, the Blazers have been held under 100 points five times which includes Game 1. In the following contest, the club has scored 117, 132, 140 and 119 points. The shots are going to be there, just a matter of making them and I believe Portland will in Game 2. My lean would be to the Blazers Team Total Over (105),” David added.
The Blazers have lost 14 of their past 15 trips to Oracle Arena since January 2014 as NBA expert Tony Mejia checks in with his take on Game 2, “The Blazers are likely to change things up from a personnel standpoint, so keep that in mind when betting Game 2. Enes Kanter was productive on the boards and the low block, but the Blazers still had to compensate for his lack of defense with how they defended the perimeter. With Rodney Hood moving around better than expected after Sunday’s knee injury, get used to see him in three-guard lineups and don’t be surprised to see Moe Harkless and Al-Farouq Aminu out there as the Blazers go small. The more mobile Zach Collins should continue to see major minutes, so we could see a faster pace with more ball handlers and shooters out on the floor.”
Since failing to cover all four Game 2’s of the playoffs in Kerr’s first season in 2015, the Warriors own a 10-4 ATS mark in Game 2’s dating back to 2016. Granted, one of those non-covers came in an outright defeat to the Clippers in the first round as 13 ½-point favorites, 135-131. Portland has put together a 1-6 record in its last seven Game 2’s after losing the series opener, but the lone victory came in the second round at Denver.
NBA
Dunkel
Thursday, May 16
Portland @ Golden State
Game 533-534
May 16, 2019 @ 9:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Portland
122.811
Golden State
126.814
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Golden State
by 4
227
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Golden State
by 8
218
Dunkel Pick:
Portland
(+8); Over
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NBA
Long Sheet
Thursday, May 16
PORTLAND (61 - 34) at GOLDEN STATE (66 - 29) - 5/16/2019, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GOLDEN STATE is 92-65 ATS (+20.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
PORTLAND is 96-78 ATS (+10.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PORTLAND is 50-33 ATS (+13.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 41-53 ATS (-17.3 Units) in all games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 36-48 ATS (-16.8 Units) as a favorite this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 19-28 ATS (-11.8 Units) in home games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 33-48 ATS (-19.8 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 22-35 ATS (-16.5 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 51-66 ATS (-21.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 33-48 ATS (-19.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 18-27 ATS (-11.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 34-42 ATS (-12.2 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 8-8 against the spread versus PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 12-4 straight up against PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
9 of 16 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NBA
Thursday, May 16
Trend Report
Portland Trail Blazers
Portland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Portland is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Portland's last 6 games
Portland is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Portland's last 6 games on the road
Portland is 5-18 SU in its last 23 games when playing Golden State
The total has gone OVER in 17 of Portland's last 25 games when playing Golden State
Portland is 8-17 ATS in its last 25 games when playing on the road against Golden State
Portland is 1-14 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against Golden State
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Portland's last 5 games when playing on the road against Golden State
Golden State Warriors
Golden State is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Golden State's last 6 games
Golden State is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Golden State is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Golden State's last 18 games at home
Golden State is 18-5 SU in its last 23 games when playing Portland
The total has gone OVER in 17 of Golden State's last 25 games when playing Portland
Golden State is 17-8 ATS in its last 25 games when playing at home against Portland
Golden State is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against Portland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Golden State's last 5 games when playing at home against Portland
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