Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Tuesday 5/14/19
Portland won four of last six games with Golden State; Blazers are 2-2 vs spread in last four visits to Oakland. Portland split its last six road games (3-3 vs spread); over is 6-2 in their last eight games. Six of last nine series games went over. Warriors beat Houston in six games; Durant is doubtful here. Blazers lost C Nurkic few months ago. Golden State covered once in its last four home games. Over is 5-2-1 in their last eight games. Portland is in Western finals for first time since 2000; they won Game 7 in Denver Sunday. Warriors haven’t played since Friday.
Who's Hot and Who's Not
Week of May 13th
After Sunday brought a pair of phenomenal Game 7's in the second round of the NBA playoffs, we've now got the Final Four left in the NBA, and that's where the focus for this piece lies. Those two Game 7's – Portland/Denver and Philadelphia/Toronto brought plenty of emotion with them, as tears of joy and sadness filled both arenas when the final buzzer went off.
But, as both the Trail Blazers and Raptors get at least a full day off to come down from those historical highs, the betting market is already about 24 hours into the Conference Finals market as it is. Even before the results of those Game 7's were in, everyone knew that Golden State and Milwaukee would be the favorites to ultimately reach in the Finals, but now that the matchups are set, are those the two teams your money should be backing to get there?
Let's go through a quick history lesson shall we, as this week's Hot/Not piece begins with the “Not” side for once.
Who's Not
NBA teams that got to the Conference Finals after winning the 2nd round in seven games are 4-10 straight up (SU) to advance to the NBA Finals; 0-5 SU this decade
*Disclaimer: The 2006 Conference Finals between Dallas/Phoenix and the 2001 Conference Finals between Philadelphia and Milwaukee have been omitted from that number given that both teams were off seven-game series victories and someone was guaranteed to win/lose.
As elated as Portland and Toronto fans are today, I hate to be the one to give all that energy a cold bath, but never mind the tough task of getting by Milwaukee or Golden State as the current rosters are constructed, but history isn't on the Blazers or Raptors side either. That's because these teams that need seven games to get out of the second round tend to run out of gas when a Finals berth is on the line.
That 4-10 SU series record for teams in the same boat that Portland and Toronto find themselves in this year is the definition of paddling upstream. The last five teams – all since 2011 - who were in this exact scenario – including this same Toronto Raptors team in 2016 – failed to take that next step and get to the Finals, and that's the type of history both organizations are fighting against this round.
Whether it's the fact that the competition gets tougher the further you go, or that these teams have maxed out their energy through the first two rounds when the latter goes the distance, a 28% clip at making the Finals can't be all that encouraging. Oh, and then there is also Giannis Antetokounmpo and the rest of the Bucks to deal with for Toronto, while Portland's tasked with trying to knock off the four-time defending Western Conference champs.
So don't be surprised to see the favorites start to take some action after the euphoria of those Game 7 wins starts to wear off in both cities. However, it's not like a 4-10 SU series record is a death knell for the Blazers or the Raptors, when in fact, the last time any 2nd Round Game 7 winner made the Finals happened in 2009, when both the Lakers and Magic were able to fight off history and both win their respective Conference Finals matchup. I doubt we see a Portland/Toronto Finals matchup this year, but seeing one of them get through wouldn't be fall out of your chair shocking.
Who's Hot
Short Conference Finals series in the NBA when one team is off a seven-game contest
Using the same data I referenced above, bettors that are interested in playing certain series props like “how many games will the series be” should have two numbers they've locked in on for these Conference Finals: 5 and 6.
That's because of those same 14 occurrences this century when one Conference Finals team is off a seven-game series (again omitting those 2006 and 2001 matchups), the Conference Finals has only gone the distance once: the 2012 Eastern Conference Finals. There were no sweeps either in that span, meaning that the other 13 matchups ended in either five or six games.
Of the two, it's six games that's happened the most (9 times) although the more recent numbers have five games being the most common at least this decade – three of five have finished in five games. Whether or not that historical trend actually helps the Blazers and/or Raptors remains to be seen given they will both be at home for a potential Game 6, but with odds for a Game 5 or 6 finish in both conferences floating around in the +200 to +250 range, it's a betting option that should be strongly considered.
By Kevin Rogers
Western Conference Finals – Game 1
No. 3 Portland at No. 1 Golden State (ESPN, 9:05 p.m. ET)
2018-19 Regular Season (Tied 2-2, Over 2-2)
Nov. 23 - Warriors (-1.5) 125 vs. Blazers 97 (Over 218.5)
Dec. 27 – Blazers (+8.5) 110 at Warriors 109 - OT (Under 227)
Dec. 29 – Warriors (-5) 115 at Blazers 105 (Under 226)
Feb. 13 – Blazers (+2) 129 vs. Warriors 107 (Over 235)
For the fifth consecutive season, the Warriors are playing for the Western Conference championship. The Blazers have not sniffed the conference finals since 2000 against the Lakers, when Portland squandered a 16-point advantage in a Game 7 heartbreaker at Staples Center.
Golden State finished off its fourth straight playoff series win on the road dating back to last season’s conference finals in a 118-113 triumph to eliminate Houston in six games last Friday night. Kevin Durant didn’t suit up for the first time this postseason after suffering a calf injury in Game 5 against the Rockets, as the Warriors were tied at halftime in spite of Stephen Curry not scoring a single point in the first half. Curry turned things around in the second half by scoring 33 points, including 11 free throws, while Klay Thompson knocked down seven three-pointers to post 27 points and give the Warriors the cover as 7 ½-point underdogs.
The Warriors have struggled to a 5-7 ATS record in the first two rounds against the Clippers and Rockets, while the 12 games played in the opening two rounds of the playoffs are the most since Steve Kerr took over as head coach in 2014. Golden State owns a 2-4 ATS record at Oracle Arena in the playoffs and will start this series without Durant, who will miss Game 1 with this lingering calf injury.
The Blazers were predicted by many to not even escape the first round against the Thunder, in spite of owning home-court advantage. Portland failed to win a single game in each of the last two playoff appearances against New Orleans (2018) and Golden State (2017), but the Blazers knocked out Oklahoma City in five games, followed by bouncing the Northwest division champion Nuggets in the second round.
Portland went through a disastrous stretch on the road in the playoffs from 2014 through 2018 by losing 16 of 17 contests away from the Moda Center. Terry Stotts’ club has picked up three highway victories in this postseason alone, capped off by erasing a 17-point deficit in Game 7 at Denver on Sunday in a 100-96 triumph as 5 ½-point underdogs. C.J. McCollum helped saved the Blazers’ season with a 30-point effort in a Game 6 victory at home, but the shooting guard stepped up in the series finale with 37 points, as Portland overcame a dreadful 4-of-26 performance from three-point range.
The two teams split four matchups in the regular season with only meeting coming since January. Golden State blasted Portland in the first hook-up at Oracle Arena on November 23 as 1 ½-point favorites in a 125-97 rout, led by 32 points from Durant and 31 from Thompson, while playing without an injury Curry. The Blazers picked up revenge in their next trip to Oakland on December 27 in a 110-109 nail-biter in overtime as 8 ½-point ‘dogs. Portland ended a 13-game slide at Oracle in spite of shooting only 36% from the floor.
Golden State topped Portland in the second of a home-and-home set two days later at the Moda Center, 115-105 to cash as five-point favorites. The three-headed monster of Durant, Curry, and Thompson combined to score 82 points, while Damian Lillard led Portland with 40 points in the loss. Portland captured the most recent matchup on February 13 as two-point home underdogs, 129-107, highlighted by the Blazers outscoring the Warriors, 35-12 in the final quarter.
The Warriors and Blazers are meeting for the first time ever in the Western Conference finals, while locking horns for the third time in the last four postseasons. Interestingly enough, these two squads had never faced each other in the playoffs prior to 2016, but Golden State has topped Portland in eight of nine meetings. The Warriors knocked out the Blazers in five games in the 2016 second round, followed by a first round sweep in 2017, as Portland’s lone win in this stretch came in Game 3 of the ’16 semifinals.
The total for Game 1 opened at 216 and the number has been pushed up to 219 as of this morning. Chris David of VegasInsider.com offered up his handicap and lean on Tuesday’s matchup.
He said, “In the four regular season meetings, Golden State and Portland saw their total results break even (2-2) and the closing numbers ranged from 218 ½ to 235 points. In those games, the pair combined for an average of 224.3 PPG with the highest result being 236 points (129-107 Portland) and the lowest at 219 points (Portland 110-109). I was a little surprised to see the number get pushed up because Golden State will still be without Durant. The All-Star played in all four games against the Trail Blazers this season and he averaged 28.8 PPG, 6.3 rebounds and 6.3 assists while shooting 58 percent from the field.”
“The Warriors showed no signs on missing Durant’s production last Friday as they defeated the Rockets 118-113 in Game 6 and that turned out to be an easy ‘over’ (215 ½) winner. However, in the regular season Golden State averaged 104 PPG while only allowing 99.5 PPG in games without KD and that produced a 4-0 ‘under’ record.”
VegasInsider.com NBA expert Tony Mejia provides his thoughts heading into this series, “The Blazers can’t really afford to ease their way into this series since they must take advantage of Durant’s absence, so being able to steal Game 1 hinges almost entirely on their ability to hit the 3-ball. Lillard can’t be trusted at this point given his awful start to Game 7. Whether it’s physical or mental, he was unable to find a rhythm against the Nuggets until hitting a few key shots late and shot just 29 percent from beyond the arc for the entire series.
“Although he’s had some monster games in his native Oakland, he’s 0-5 in playoff games there in series losses in 2016 and 17, shooting 34 percent (25-for-73) at Oracle, making 15 of 40 3-pointers. Lillard has only left the Oracle Arena floor a winner twice in 16 attempts over his NBA career but does have five 30-point games there,” Mejia said.
The Warriors are listed as 7 ½-point favorites in Game 1, while the two-time defending champions are -550 (Bet $550 to win $100) to return to the NBA Finals for the fifth straight season.
NBA
Dunkel
Tuesday, May 14
Portland @ Golden State
Game 533-534
May 14, 2019 @ 9:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Portland
117.947
Golden State
133.487
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Golden State
by 15 1/2
230
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Golden State
by 8
218
Dunkel Pick:
Golden State
(-8); Over
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NBA
Long Sheet
Tuesday, May 14
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PORTLAND (61 - 33) at GOLDEN STATE (65 - 29) - 5/14/2019, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GOLDEN STATE is 91-65 ATS (+19.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
PORTLAND is 51-43 ATS (+3.7 Units) in all games this season.
PORTLAND is 50-32 ATS (+14.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
PORTLAND is 49-33 ATS (+12.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 40-53 ATS (-18.3 Units) in all games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 35-48 ATS (-17.8 Units) as a favorite this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 18-28 ATS (-12.8 Units) in home games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) on Tuesday nights over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 50-66 ATS (-22.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 32-48 ATS (-20.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 17-27 ATS (-12.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 33-42 ATS (-13.2 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
PORTLAND is 8-7 against the spread versus GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 11-4 straight up against PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
9 of 15 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NBA
Tuesday, May 14
Trend Report
Portland Trail Blazers
Portland is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Portland's last 5 games
Portland is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Golden State
Portland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Golden State
Portland is 5-17 SU in its last 22 games when playing Golden State
The total has gone OVER in 18 of Portland's last 25 games when playing Golden State
Portland is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Golden State
Portland is 8-17 ATS in its last 25 games when playing on the road against Golden State
Portland is 1-13 SU in its last 14 games when playing on the road against Golden State
Golden State Warriors
Golden State is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Golden State is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Golden State's last 5 games
Golden State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Golden State is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Golden State's last 17 games at home
Golden State is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Portland
Golden State is 17-5 SU in its last 22 games when playing Portland
Golden State is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Portland
The total has gone OVER in 18 of Golden State's last 25 games when playing Portland
Golden State is 17-8 ATS in its last 25 games when playing at home against Portland
Golden State is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Portland
Golden State is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games when playing at home against Portland
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Series Preview: Blazers face tall task against defending-champion Warriors
Shaun Powell
Injuries mark these West finals, a round Blazers haven't reached since 2000
Two of the NBA's best point guards clash for the Western Conference crown.
The story within the story of this Western Conference finals matchup will surround one player and maybe two, and it is this: Will Kevin Durant heal quickly enough to make an appearance? Will DeMarcus Cousins? And let's add two more players: Who will Dell and Sonya Curry root for with dueling sons (Stephen Curry on Golden State; Seth Curry on Portland) on opposing rosters?
Seriously, though, Durant returning from a strained calf (which is the more likely scenario than Cousins) will impact the series greatly in Golden State’s favor. If Cousins recovers from his quad injury as well, then it gets to be a really unfair fight -- and likely a Warriors’ sweep.
In any event, the Warriors step into this series as a prohibitive favorite, especially if you buy the notion that their Western Conference semfinals series with the Houston Rockets was the unofficial conference championship.
The Blazers aren’t here by mistake. They just won a Game 7 on the road in Denver, beat Oklahoma City in five games and boast Damian Lillard. Portland's All-Star guard will certainly feel territorial playing in Oakland, having grown up there as a lightly-recruited high school player.
Yet Lillard seems whipped from his playoff load and was noticeably subpar when he missed 11 of his first 12 shots in Game 7 against Denver and shot below 30 percent on 3-pointers in that series. Also, Rodney Hood is ailing from a hyperextended knee. Maybe this is the time when Jusuf Nurkic’s injury -- he suffered a broken leg in March -- finally catches up to Portland.
Meanwhile, the Warriors are bringing the usual cast of characters (minus Durant for the time being) and also have home court. Again, if Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green don’t become complacent and overconfident, this could be the least suspenseful conference finals in recent memory -- if it isn’t already.
Three things to watch
1. Can Andre Iguodala keep up this pace? It should come as no surprise that Iguodala is feeling frisky in the playoffs, but it’s a bit unexpected given that he’s doing it in 2019. Once again, the 2015 Finals MVP is hitting playoff 3-pointers (42.3 percent) and making key defensive plays, yet this is someone who was essentially in hibernation for six months and looked his age (35). But these days, he's doubling up his regular-season scoring average and and he’s on the floor when it counts.
2. Is CJ McCollum a bigger worry for the Warriors than Damian Lillard? Maybe it’s now "CJ Time" for the Blazers, as McCollum was downright beastly (and more reliable than Lillard) in their last two games against Denver. McCollum averaged 33.5 points in that span and got the call from coach Terry Stotts for the Blazers’ final play in Game 7, which he secured on a mid-range jumper.
3. How full will Draymond Green's hands be with Enes Kanter? Although he brings a bum shoulder into this series, Kanter is an aggressive presence around the basket and will force Green to direct his attention squarely on the Blazers’ center, who’s averaging 13 points on 52 percent shooting. Just the same, Green might force Kanter to play defense, the weakest part of his game.
The number to know
23.3 -- The Blazers lead the postseason in time of possession, controlling the ball for 23.3 minutes per game. They are not a running team, ranking 24th in the regular season (11.0) and 15th in the playoffs (10.6) in fast break points per game. Only the Orlando Magic took a lower percentage of their shots in the first six seconds of the shot clock, according to Second Spectrum tracking.
The Warriors ranked sixth in the percentage of their shots that came in the first six seconds of the shot clock (18 percent), third in fast break points per game (19.1), and 29th in time of possession. They will push the ball and look for early offense.
The champs will also move the ball more than the Blazers. Though the Warriors have two of the best off-the-dribble shooters in the league, they've recorded assists on 66 percent of their baskets, the second highest rate in the postseason. They've led the league in regular-season assist percentageeach of the last four years.
The Blazers also have two of the league's best off-the-dribble shooters, and they play more like it. Lillard (11.2) and McCollum (10.6) rank third and fourth in pull-up jumpers per game in the postseason and the Blazers rank last in postseason assist percentage, having recorded assists on less than 46 percent of their total buckets.
This series is a contrast of styles, in more ways than one.
-- John Schuhmann
The pick
The championship experience factor could not be more lopsided in this series, as not only do the Warriors have the heavy advantage, they showed as much in their closeout victory over the Rockets, especially down the stretch. While the Blazers may get the urge to pop bottles just for making it this deep in the playoffs, the next step is even tougher, which they’re about to find out. Warriors in four.
Series Schedule
Game 1: Tue, May 14, Portland at Golden State, 9 ET, ESPN
Game 2: Thu, May 16, Portland at Golden State, 9 ET, ESPN
Game 3: Sat, May 18, Golden State at Portland, 9 ET, ESPN
Game 4: Mon, May 20, Golden State at Portland, 9 ET, ESPN
*Game 5: Wed, May 22, Portland at Golden State, 9 ET, ESPN
*Game 6: Fri, May 24, Golden State at Portland, 9 ET, ESPN
*Game 7: Sun, May 26, Portland at Golden State, 9 ET, ESPN
* - If Necessary
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