Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Tuesday 5/7/19
Leonard scored 39 in Game 3; this time his teammates were little more supportive (22-56, 39.3%) than in first two games (32.8%). Raptors’ bench outscored Philly’s 12-11, after being outscored 49-20 in previous two games. Simmons had 10 points, five boards, four assists in Game 4; they need lot more from him than that. 76ers have been held to 96 or fewer points in three of four series games; they won by 21 the one big game Embiid had (9-18 in Game 3, 9-32 in other three games combined). Home side won seven of last ten series games. 76ers won eight of their last 12 games overall; over is 13-10 in their last 23 games.
Denver outscored Portland 27-14 in third quarter of 116-112 Game 4 win, evening series 2-2 after Friday’s 4-OT loss. Blazers’ bench was +36 Sunday; their starters -56- Seth Curry had 16 points off bench. Murray had 34 for Nuggets, who won eight of last 11 games with Portland; seven of last eight series games went over the total. Home side won seven of last ten series games. Under is 4-2 in Blazers’ last six wins; three of their last four losses went over. Nuggets’ bench was -35 in Game 4; they were -16 in 16:00 Plumlee played, are -26 in his last 28:00 in series. Nokic had a triple-double in Game 4, 48 hours after playing 65:00 in Friday’s marathon.
The conference semifinals continue Tuesday night with Game 5 in Denver and Toronto, while both series are tied at 2-2. The things are heating up as the Nuggets welcome the Trail Blazers and the Raptors host the 76ers, so check out all must-read betting trends and notes that will help you make the best bets tonight.
Featured game: #3 Portland Trail Blazers vs. #2 Denver Nuggets (2-2; 1-3 ATS)
The Denver Nuggets (60-33; 48-45 ATS) overcame the Portland Trail Blazers (59-32; 49-41-1 ATS) 116-112 in Game 4 at Moda Center in Portland to even the series. Nikola Jokic posted his fourth triple-double this postseason with 21 points, 12 rebounds, and 11 assists, while Jamal Murray dropped 34 points on the Blazers. On the other side, Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum combined for 57 points, but it wasn’t enough for the Blazers to take a commanding lead in the series.
The Nuggets opened as 4.5-point favorites in Game 5 with the total at 213.5 points, and the over has hit in three of the previous four contests and in seven of eight head-to-head duels between Denver and Portland this season. The Nuggets are 7-4 straight up and 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings with the Blazers and 6-1 straight up and 4-2-1 ATS in the previous seven H2H encounters at Pepsi Center in Denver.
The Trail Blazers are 6-3 straight up and 4-5 ATS in their nine games this postseason, while they are 3-17 straight up and 5-14-1 ATS in the previous 20 playoff contests on the road. The Blazers are 4-8 straight up and 5-7 ATS in their last 12 outings on the road as underdogs and 4-9 straight up and 5-8 ATS in their previous 13 road meetings with the Northwest Division. Portland is scoring 113.0 points per game this postseason, making 45.0% of its field goals and 37.8% of its 3-pointers. On the other side, the Blazers are allowing 110.0 points per game on 43.7% shooting from the field.
The Nuggets are 6-5 straight up and ATS in their 11 outings this postseason, while they are 9-4 straight up and 5-7-1 ATS in the last 13 playoff games on the home court. Denver is 13-3 straight up and 11-5 ATS in its last 16 showings at home as a favorite of five or fewer points and 14-2 straight up and 10-5-1 ATS in the previous 16 home encounters with the Northwest Division. The Nuggets are scoring 109.1 points per game this postseason on 44.9% shooting from the field and 35.7% from beyond the arc, surrendering 107.7 points in a return on 46.0% shooting from the field.
#3 Philadelphia 76ers vs. #2 Toronto Raptors (2-2; 2-2 ATS)
The Toronto Raptors (64-27; 42-48-1 ATS) bounced back in Game 4 after two straight losses in this series, beating the Philadelphia 76ers (57-34; 44-47 ATS) 101-96 as 2-point road favorites. Kawhi Leonard had another terrific performance with 39 points and 14 rebounds, making 13 of his 20 field-goal attempts. The Claw is dominating the Sixers, averaging 38.0 points over the previous four games while shooting 61.8% from the field and 46.4% from beyond the 3-point line.
The Raptors opened as 6-point favorites in Game 5 with the total at 211.5 points, and the under has hit in all four previous games of the series. Toronto is 15-5 straight up and 14-6 ATS in its last 20 meetings with Philadelphia, while the Raptors are 14-1 straight up and 11-4 ATS in the previous 15 H2H duels in Canada.
The Sixers are 6-3 straight up and ATS in nine games this postseason, and the under is 7-2 in that stretch, while they are 7-13 straight up and 10-10 ATS in their previous 20 playoff games on the road. The Sixers are 5-6 straight up and ATS in their last 11 outings on the road and 6-9 straight up and 4-11 ATS in their previous 15 road meetings with the Atlantic Division. Philadelphia is scoring 112.6 points per game this postseason, shooting 46.5% from the field and 33.6% from beyond the arc, allowing 105.6 points in a return on 42.7% shooting from the field.
The Raptors are 6-3 straight up and 5-4 ATS in nine showings this postseason, and the under is 8-1 in that span, while they are 12-8 straight up and 11-8-1 ATS in the last 20 playoff contests on the home court. The Raptors are 8-4 straight up and 7-5 ATS in their last 12 outings at home and 29-1 straight up and 23-7 ATS in their previous 30 home encounters with the Atlantic Division. Toronto is tallying 102.8 points per game this postseason, shooting 46.1% from the field and 33.7% from beyond the arc while surrendering 95.7 points in a return on 40.5% shooting from the field.
By Tony Mejia
Eastern Conference Semifinals – Game 5 -- Series tied 2-2
No. 3 Philadelphia at No. 2 Toronto (-4/219) ,TNT, 8:05 p.m. ET
May 5 – Raptors (+2) 101 at 76ers 96 (Under 216)
May 2 – 76ers (+1.5) 116 vs. Raptors 95 (Under 216.5)
April 29 – 76ers (+7.5) 97 at Raptors 89 (Under 220)
April 27 – Raptors (-6.5) 108 vs. 76ers 95 (Under 223)
April 27 - Raptors (-6.5) 108 vs. 76ers 95 (Under 227)
Feb. 5 - Raptors (+2.5) 119 at 76ers 107 (Under 231)
Dec. 22 – 76ers (-7.5) 126 vs. Raptors 101 (Over 222.5)
Dec. 5 - Raptors (-6.5) 113 vs. 76ers 102 (Under 229)
Oct. 30 - Raptors (-6) 129 vs. 76ers 112 (Over 227.5)
Pascal Siakam played on Sunday when he ordinarily wouldn’t have if the game wasn’t so important. He did so poorly.
The lanky 6-foot-9 Raptors forward expected to be crowned this year’s Most Improved Player played through a right calf injury that limited his mobility, so he compensated by trying to be a factor by spreading the floor. Despite shooting nearly 37 percent from beyond the arc during the regular season, he’s been boom-or-bust this postseason and finished 0-for-4 in Game 4, his fourth playoff game where he’s failed to connect even once despite at least three attempts.
Siakam missed his first eight shots and scored a playoff-low nine points in 29 minutes in a contest where he was initially listed as “doubtful” to participate and was only cleared to play just before tipoff, but just being out there helped teammates pick their game up, perhaps seeing that there was no other recourse to avoid taking a loss since the team’s second-most productive player just didn’t have it.
Kyle Lowry and Marc Gasol combined for 30 points and Raptors head coach Nick Nurse shortened his rotation to basically only include Serge Ibaka as he rode his veterans on the road in support of Kawhi Leonard’s 39 points to even the series with a 101-96 win.
Toronto went from staring a likely 3-1 deficit in the face as a Game 4 underdog to -300 to get out of this series according to Monday’s odds update at the Westgate LV Superbook. You can cash in on the 76ers at +240 if you believe they’ll be able to steal a game in Toronto tonight or in Game 7 while holding serve at home in Thursday night’s Game 6.
A twist of fate aided the Raptors’ cause since center Joel Embiid went from dominating Game 3 and looking as fresh as he has since before the All-Star break to requiring an IV at 6 AM in order to play later in the day as he attempted to fight off a nasty flu. Although he finished a team-best plus-17, he missed five of his seven shots from the field to finish with 11 points in addition to eight boards and seven assists. He scored 33 points and chipped in 10 rebounds and five blocks, so the drop-off in his production was substantial.
Embiid had to travel while getting over an illness but should be in better condition for this critical swing game. How close he is to 100 percent will likely determine whether the 76ers can pull off a second straight upset at Scotiabank Arena in this series. Jimmy Butler scored 30 points in a Game 2 that saw both teams shoot under 40 percent from the field in an ugly game that was heavy on effort and errant shots from the perimeter. Philadelphia outrebounded Toronto 57-50 and has shown it can scrap on the glass and the defensive end, overcoming a disappointing effort from former No. 1 pick Ben Simmons thus far in the series since he’s averaging 10 points and 4.8 assists through the first four games. The 76ers still haven’t put together a game in this series where they get everyone in their formidable starting lineup going so they’ve still got a higher level to reach.
Kevin Rogers points out that Philadelphia has been resilient despite being a relatively young group with limited experience playing together.
“The 76ers have done a terrific job of bouncing back from a home loss this season by going 9-1 SU and 6-5 ATS, while listed as an underdog for the first time in this situation,” Rogers said. “The Raptors have not allowed over 100 points at home in the playoffs since giving up 104 points to Orlando in the first-round opener, as Toronto has cashed the ‘under’ in all five games at Scotiabank Arena.”
The ‘under’ has gone 4-0 in this series and the total for Game 5 opened at 212 ½ and quickly dropped to 211 ½. VegasInsider.com totals expert Chris David provided his quick thoughts on Tuesday’s number.
“I thought the Sunday afternoon tip was going to wake up the offensives for both clubs but that wasn’t the case as neither team could hit from distance,” David said. “Toronto is shooting 29.5 percent from 3-point land in this series while Philadelphia has connected at a 33.6 percent clip, both well below their season averages. If you’re leaning to the high side come Tuesday, you’re pretty much wagering on the results from beyond the arc and some global books offer number of treys made in a game as a prop wager.
“The Game 5 total (211 ½) is the lowest number posted in the eight meetings between the pair this season. Knowing that the losing team in each of the first four games in this series has been held under the century mark, you can see why the books adjust their number by nearly four points. You can argue that these results were helped with the lack of production in the fourth quarter as the teams are averaging a combined 42.3 PPG in the final 12 minutes so far. Instead of sweating out a ticket for 48 minutes, my lean for Game 5 would be on the ‘over’ in the first quarter. We’ve had two high-scoring firsts so far (70, 61 points) and two below average (43, 45 points) quarters. The number is 52 ½ and I believe the duo will exceed that mark.”
Including the results from this series, Toronto has watched the ‘under’ go 8-1 in the postseason while Philadelphia is 7-2 to the low side. Siakam’s calf injury is expected to be less of an issue here but compensating to play through it has affected his hamstring, which is certainly worth watching since limited explosiveness could again find him floating out to the perimeter where he’s less effective. The play of reserves Fred VanVleet, Norman Powell and Patrick McCaw will also be an x-factor since they’ve struggled to make a difference after excelling during the regular-season, turning the Raptors’ bench and overall depth into a major strength. At home, they should at least be more comfortable.
Western Conference Semifinals – Game 5 -- Series tied 2-2
No. 3 Portland at No. 2 Denver (-4/212.5), TNT, 10:35 p.m. ET
May 5 – Nuggets (+3) 116 at Blazers 112 (Over 211)
May 3 – Blazers (-5) 140 vs. Nuggets 137 (Over 215)
May 1 – Blazers (+4) 97 at Nuggets 90 (Under 219.5)
April 29 – Nuggets (-4) 121 vs. Blazers 113 (Over 215.5)
April 7 – Blazers (-8.5) 115 vs. Nuggets 108 (Under 219.5)
April 5 – Nuggets (-6) 119 vs. Blazers 110 (Over 216)
Jan. 13 – Nuggets (-4.5) 116 vs. Blazers 113 (Over 217)
Nov. 30 – Nuggets (+1.5) 113 at Blazers 112 (Over 214)
The Nuggets responded after losing homecourt advantage last time they took the floor at home by pushing the Trail Blazers to four overtimes in Game 3, nearly winning on multiple occasions before falling short. They then came through with an upset in Sunday night’s showdown by knocking down one huge shot after another in the fourth quarter to hold off a frantic comeback bid in a 116-112 victory.
It’s gone slightly under the radar due to the later tip-off times and the fact the other three conference semifinal series were more hyped, but Denver-Portland has taken a backseat to no one in terms of how competitive and exciting the games have been.
Although Damian Lillard came in with all the juice after his amazing performance in closing out the Oklahoma City Thunder, he’s unexpectedly cooled off. Lillard has shot just 38 percent over the past three games in this series after a Game 1 effort that saw him score 39 points.
Despite two of the games being played at the Moda Center, Lillard is shooting 24-for-63 since the opener, which includes a 5-for-23 (21.7 percent) showing from 3-point range. The Blazers will need their All-Star guard to re-emerge over the latter part of the series and enter Game 5 at +125 to win the series according to Westgate, which favors the Nuggets (-145) due to their homecourt advantage.
Denver center Nikola Jokic has done his part in leading the way as the All-Star catalyst for his group, averaging nearly 27 points, 13.3 rebounds and 9.5 assists in the series. With Jamal Murray looking healthier after suffering an ankle injury and the two guys with the most playoff experience on the team, Paul Millsap and Will Barton, really stepping up, Denver appears to be playing better as we enter this swing game.
Portland center Enes Kanter has been dealing with a shoulder issue suffered against the Thunder but has played through it and been a major factor in at least making Jokic work for everything he’s gotten. Kanter has been wearing padding over his left shoulder but has averaged 16 points and 10.3 rebounds in the series despite scoring just five points last time out. A bounce-back game from him is essential given how effectively Jokic and Millsap have been of late, imposing their will in the paint.
The Blazers are just 3-17 on the road in the playoffs dating back to 2014, so they’ll have to overcome a poor history as a visitor in order to advance to the conference finals since they need a win tonight or in a potential Game 7. They haven’t put their fresher legs to use since they didn’t have the quick turnaround Denver faced after being forced to play seven games against San Antonio.
The Nuggets opened the series as a slight favorite (-145) over the Trail Blazers (+125) according to Westgate, which is where the current odds also reside.
VI’s Rogers points out a few trends that favor the home team in Game 5.
“The Blazers have not been a reliable team to back in the playoffs since covering in the first two games against Oklahoma City in the opening round,” Rogers said. “Portland owns a 2-5 ATS mark in the past seven games, although the two covers have come in road victories at OKC and Denver. The Nuggets have covered in five of six wins, with the lone exception coming in the Game 7 victory against San Antonio in the last round. Since the start of the 2018 playoffs in series tied at 2-2, the home teams own a 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS record in Game 5, which includes Denver’s blowout of San Antonio, 108-90 as 5 ½-point favorites.”
Lillard played in all four regular-season meetings against Denver, averaging 21.3 points but shooting just 37 percent from the field and 28.6 from 3-point range.
Although he scored 39 points in the Game 1 loss, Gary Harris helped limit him to just 14 points on 5-for-17 shots in Game 2. Lillard shot 40 percent from 3-point range at home as opposed to 34 percent on the road during the regular season and despite scoring roughly the same amount of points per game, so he’s going to need to find a rhythm on the road that has largely eluded him. If he continues to struggle, expect McCollum to take on a larger role in the fourth quarter since he appears to have really fresh legs and is shooting the ball well. It remains to be seen whether reserves Rodney Hood and Seth Curry can continue to have the impact they had in Portland since the Nuggets’ bench is likely to be more of a factor at home.
The ‘over’ is 3-1 in the series and is 7-3 in the last 10 playoff games involving Denver. The high side is on a 4-1 run in Blazers’ games.
NBA
Long Sheet
Tuesday, May 7
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PHILADELPHIA (57 - 34) at TORONTO (64 - 27) - 5/7/2019, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) in road games vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) in home games vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 146-118 ATS (+16.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 76-57 ATS (+13.3 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) after a division game this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 39-20 ATS (+17.0 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 80-58 ATS (+16.2 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 48-31 ATS (+13.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 81-58 ATS (+17.2 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 48-27 ATS (+18.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
TORONTO is 210-265 ATS (-81.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 10-6 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 11-5 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
8 of 16 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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PORTLAND (59 - 32) at DENVER (60 - 33) - 5/7/2019, 10:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 28-19 ATS (+7.1 Units) in home games this season.
DENVER is 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) vs. division opponents this season.
PORTLAND is 94-76 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PORTLAND is 48-31 ATS (+13.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 10-5 against the spread versus PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 9-7 straight up against PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
11 of 16 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NBA
Tuesday, May 7
Trend Report
Philadelphia 76ers
Philadelphia is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
Philadelphia is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games
Philadelphia is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Philadelphia is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games on the road
Philadelphia is 6-15 ATS in its last 21 games when playing Toronto
Philadelphia is 5-20 SU in its last 25 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing Toronto
Philadelphia is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Philadelphia is 1-14 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Toronto Raptors
Toronto is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games
Toronto is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Toronto's last 10 games
Toronto is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Toronto is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games at home
Toronto is 15-6 ATS in its last 21 games when playing Philadelphia
Toronto is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Toronto is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
Toronto is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
Portland Trail Blazers
Portland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Portland is 17-5 SU in its last 22 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Portland's last 5 games
Portland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Portland is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Denver
Portland is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Portland's last 8 games when playing Denver
Portland is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Denver
Portland is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Denver
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Portland's last 10 games when playing on the road against Denver
Denver Nuggets
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Denver's last 10 games
Denver is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Denver's last 18 games at home
Denver is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Portland
Denver is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing Portland
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Denver's last 8 games when playing Portland
Denver is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Portland
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Denver's last 10 games when playing at home against Portland
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NBA
Dunkel
Tuesday, May 7
Philadelphia @ Toronto
Game 505-506
May 7, 2019 @ 8:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
126.887
Toronto
126.861
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
Even
217
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
by 6 1/2
211 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(+6 1/2); Over
Portland @ Denver
Game 507-508
May 7, 2019 @ 10:30 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Portland
122.840
Denver
121.961
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Portland
by 1
207
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
by 4 1/2
213 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Portland
(+4 1/2); Under
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