Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Tuesday 4/30/19
Bucks shot 36% inside arc in 112-90 Game 1 home loss; Celtics shot 60.7% inside arc. Home team won ten of last 11 Boston-Milwaukee games; Celtics are 3-2 vs spread in last five visits to Wisconsin. Seven of last 11 series games went over the total. Boston covered its last six road games; four of their last five games overall stayed under total. Milwaukee won four of its last five games; they’re 2-4 vs spread in last six home games. Eight of last 11 Milwaukee games went over. Antetokounmpo was just 7-21 from floor in Game 1; they obviously need more than that from him.
Houston was 14-47 on arc in 104-100 Game 1 loss in Oakland; Durant scored 35 for Golden State. Rockets are 5-4 in their last nine games with the Warriors; they covered three of last five visits to Oakland. Nine of last ten series games stayed under the total. Golden State won 11 of its last 14 games overall; they’re 3-3 vs spread in last six home games. Four of last six Warrior games went over. Houston won eight of last 11 games overall, are 3-3 vs spread in last six road games. Six of their last seven games stayed under.
The No 1. Seed Golden State Warriors outlasted the No. 4 seed Houston Rockets 104-100 as 6-point favorites in Game 1 of the Western Conference semifinals this past Sunday. The Rockets were close to pulling off an upset, but they couldn’t find a way to slow down Kevin Durant who scored 24 of his 35 points in the second half. Also, the Rockets were furious about the officiating, pointing it as the main reason for their loss, but they will have to move on and try to even the series Tuesday night at Oracle Arena in Oakland.
Injuries/Suspensions
The Rockets head coach Mike D’Antoni can count on all his players including Austin Rivers (illness) who missed the opening game. The Warriors are without DeMarcus Cousins (quad) who’s probably out for the season.
The Line
The Warriors opened as 5.5-point favorites with the total at 220.0 points and the Rockets at +195 money line odds. The line on the total is five points lower than in Game 1, and the under has hit in nine of the previous ten head-to-head duels between Golden State and Houston. The Warriors failed to cover in the opener, while they are 3-6 ATS in the last nine meetings with the Rockets who are 1-9 straight up and 4-6 ATS in their previous ten playoff matchups with Golden State in Oakland.
What’s at Stake?
This is a big game for both teams, especially for the Rockets who will be in big trouble if they afford another loss. Only 20 teams in the NBA history overcame a 2-0 deficit in a seven-game series. Interestingly, the Rockets did it twice against the Phoenix Suns in 1994 and 1995 Western Conference semifinal, becoming the NBA champions after those comebacks.
The Spot
The Rockets won the regular-season series with the Warriors 3-1, losing the final clash at home, so they dropped two straight games to the reigning champions. A narrow loss and poor officiating could affect the Rockets’ confidence, but they are an experienced bunch and should be ready for the battle in Game 2. On the other side, the Warriors feel relieved following a victory in Game 1, especially because they lost two games at home in the first round against the Clippers.
The Matchup
The Warriors won the opener by playing small ball. They started with Draymond Green at center and did a great job on Clint Capela who finished the game with four points, six rebounds, and a +/- of -17 in 27 minutes on the floor. The Rockets made just 41.9% of their field goals and 29.8% of their 3-pointers, while the Warriors shot 50.7% from the field and 31.8% from beyond the arc. Rockets made more turnovers than assists (16-14) and lost the battle on the glass (38-26) while scoring just 30 points in the paint.
Kevin Durant led the Warriors with 35 points on 11-of-25 shooting from the field and 12-of-25 from the charity stripe. It was KD’s fifth consecutive 30-point playoff game, and he combined for 95 points in the last two first-round contests against the Clippers. Stephen Curry accounted for 18 points, seven boards, and four assists, while Draymond Green had 14 points, nine rebounds, and nine assists.
On the other side, James Harden scored 35 points, but the Beard made only nine of his 28 field-goal attempts. Eric Gordon tallied 27 points on 10-of-19 shooting from the field, while Chris Paul had 17 points and four assists. P.J. Tucker finished the game scoreless, and the Rockets’ bench added 17 points, six rebounds, and a dime.
The Rockets will have to find the way to make Clint Capela an important factor in this matchup or they won’t stand a chance. Capela was averaging 16.6 points and 12.7 rebounds during the regular season. Involving Capela is a must at the offensive end, while the Rockets will have to do a better job on Kevin Durant, if it’s possible, as KD’s playing at the highest level at the moment.
Also, the Rockets will have to shoot the ball better, simple as that. They hit just 14 treys out of 47 attempts from deep, and it’s not good enough to beat the Warriors. The Rockets were averaging 16.1 threes per game during the regular season while taking 45.4 attempts from downtown. On the other side, the Warriors nailed only seven triples in Game 1, so we can expect a better performance Tuesday night. The Warriors were tallying 13.1 threes per contest during the regular season.
The Bets
The Rockets are 4-1 ATS in their five meetings with the Warriors this season. The previous four duels were decided by six or fewer points. Houston will have to bring its best game to avoid another loss, and I think they will keep it close enough to cover the spread once again. When it comes to the totals, I’m backing the under, while the betting trends are clearly suggesting the same wager. However, if both teams find their 3-point shot, they could easily combine for 221 or more points. Still, I rely on a tough, playoff defense and the Rockets’ slow pace.
The fourth-seeded Boston Celtics routed the first-seeded Milwaukee Bucks 112-90 as 7.5-point road underdogs in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference semifinals. The Bucks now have to regroup and find a way to bounce back in Game 2 at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee or they will be in big trouble. On the other side, the Celtics’ confidence is sky high which promises an epic battle Tuesday night.
Injuries/Suspensions
The Celtics are missing Marcus Smart (oblique), while Aron Baynes is listed as questionable after tweaking his ankle in Game 1. The Bucks are without Malcolm Brogdon (heel) and Pau Gasol (ankle), while Sterling Brown is questionable after leaving Game 1 with back spasms.
The Line
The Bucks opened as 7.5-point favorites once again with the total at 220.0 points and the Celtics at +260 money line odds. The Celtics are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 meetings with the Bucks and 10-3 ATS in the previous 13 head-to-head duels in Milwaukee. Also, the Celtics are 10-2 ATS in their previous 12 showings on the road as underdogs, while the Bucks are 8-4-1 ATS in their last 13 home contests as favorites.
What’s at Stake?
This is a huge game for the Bucks who just cannot afford another loss on the home court. If they lose tonight, the Bucks will have to win at least one of the next two games in Boston, while the Celtics will be ready to finish the job on the home court. Boston has some experienced players who won’t miss an opportunity if they get the one.
The Spot
The Celtics continue to impress with their performance in the postseason. They are 5-0 straight up and ATS after sweeping the Pacers in the first round and hammering the Bucks on Sunday. On the other side, the Bucks had an easy job against the Pistons in the first round, beating Detroit by 16 or more points in all four games. Now, they know that the Celtics are on a higher level, so the Bucks will have to bring their best game if they want to even the series. Also, the Celtics have far more playoff experience than Milwaukee, so Game 2 will show the Bucks’ real face.
The Matchup
The Celtics dominated the Bucks in Game 1, especially at the defensive end. They allowed the Bucks to score just 40 points in the second half, winning the third quarter 36-21 to decide the winner. The Bucks shot just 34.8% from the field including 13 triples out of 39 attempts from deep while making 19 assists. Also, the Bucks scored paltry 26 points in the paint, as Al Horford did a magnificent job for the Celtics.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Bucks’ MVP candidate, accounted for 22 points and eight rebounds, but he shot just 7-of-21 from the field and 5-of-10 from the charity stripe. Khris Middleton had 16 points and ten rebounds, while Nikola Mirotic added 13 points off the bench. Eric Bledsoe was terrible with six points and four assists, while he was tortured by Kyrie Irving on both sides of the floor.
Irving led the Celtics with 26 points, 11 assists, and seven rebounds, shooting 12-of-21 from the field. Al Horford posted a double-double with 20 points and 11 boards also adding three assists and three blocks. Jaylen Brown had 19 points on 8-of-14 shooting, while Gordon Hayward added 13 points and five assists off the bench. The Celtics made 54.0% of their field goals and 41.9% of their 3-pointers. They had 25 assists and whopping 11 blocks.
The Bucks will have to put on a much better performance in Game 2 if they want to outlast the Celtics. They need a tougher defense and a better offensive execution. I’ve mentioned many times this season that Bucks rely too much on Giannis Antetokounmpo, and it was so obvious in Game 1. Eric Bledsoe was awful, while the Bucks really miss Malcolm Brogdon who could cope with Kyrie Irving at the defensive end. The Celtics had a clear plan on how to deal with Antetokounmpo, and they did a perfect job, so they will just try to replicate that performance in Game 2.
The Bets
The Celtics will have a bad day in the office in this postseason, no doubt, but with 7.5 points on the table, I have to take them to cover the spread. They are playing smart basketball and have a bunch of role players who can step up when it’s needed. Also, their experience is a strong factor in games like this one. On the other side, the Bucks are already in a must-win situation even though it’s the second game of the series. Antetokounmpo will have to prove his worth, so he could be a nice pick in the over on his points totals.
I would take the under on the totals just as I did in the opener, expecting to see a tough physical battle at the defensive end. The Bucks need to speed up the tempo which is not a good sign for the under backers, but I think the teams will fail to combine more than 220 points.
Kevin Rogers
Game 2 – Celtics at Bucks – 8:05 PM EST – TNT
Boston leads series, 1-0
There is only one team that has yet to lose in the playoffs and it’s the Celtics, who improved to 5-0 in the postseason after routing Milwaukee on Sunday, 112-90. It was pretty much all Boston from the opening tip-off as the Celtics led by nine after one quarter, while outscoring the top-seeded Bucks, 36-21 in the third quarter to win their third consecutive road game in the playoffs.
Boston easily cashed as eight-point underdogs after dropping all three matchups at Milwaukee in last year’s first round series. Kyrie Irving didn’t play in that seven-game series victory by the Celtics, but the All-Star guard posted a 26-point, 11-assist effort to help Boston snap a five-game losing streak at Milwaukee. Al Horford added 20 points for Boston, while Jaylen Brown scored 19 points as the Celtics shot 54% from the floor and attempted only eight free throws.
MVP candidate Giannis Antetokounmpo was shut down by the Celtics’ defense as the Bucks’ star scored 22 points, but it came on 7-of-21 shooting from the floor. The “Greek Freak” converted only four two-point field goals, while missing five free throws as Milwaukee suffered its first loss in the playoffs after cruising past Detroit in four games of the opening round. The Bucks will not go far in the postseason if they continue to get poor offensive performances from the likes of Eric Bledsoe and Brook Lopez, who combined to score nine points of 2-of-10 shooting.
Boston continued its stellar work on the defensive end in the playoffs by limiting the opposition to less than 100 points in four of five wins, while cashing the UNDER four times. The Celtics have trailed in the second half of all five playoff contests, as Milwaukee rallied to take a 56-54 lead early in the third quarter. However, Boston scored the next 12 points to grab a 10-point advantage and never look back to improve to 5-0 in the last five playoff series openers.
Chris David picked Boston to win this series in six games and he wasn’t surprised by the Celtics taking Game 1 but he doesn’t expect the Bucks to go down 0-2 on Tuesday.
He explained his handicap for Game 2, “Milwaukee posted the best record in the regular season and it accomplished that feat by staying away from losing skids. The Bucks only dropped back-to-back games once this season and they’re a league-best 21-1 (95%) after a loss. What’s more impressive is they went 18-4 (81%) against the spread in those games, which makes you believe the Zig-Zag angle will be pressed by the betting public in Game 2.”
David added, “Sunday’s 90-point effort in the opener was just the sixth time this season that Milwaukee was held under 100 points. Not surprisingly, they went 1-5 in those games. In the first five games after the low production, the Bucks averaged 115.8 PPG but that average was helped with a 140-point effort. Defensively, I was more impressed with Mike Budenholzer’s troops as they only surrendered 104.6 PPG in the same five games. Instead of buying the Milwaukee offense to rebound in Game 2, I’d back its defense and play the Boston Team Total Under (106 ½).”
According to Dan Feldman of NBC Sports Pro Basketball Talk, the previous four road teams to win a playoff series opener by 15 or more points have gone on to lose the series. The most recent instance for this trend came last season when the Pacers destroyed the Cavaliers, 98-80 in Game 1 of the first round in Cleveland, but Indiana lost the series in seven games.
Game 2 – Rockets at Warriors – 10:35 PM EST – TNT
Golden State leads series, 1-0
For the third time in four seasons, Golden State and Houston are meeting in the playoffs. And for the third time, the Warriors captured the series opener from the Rockets as the two-time defending champions held off Houston, 104-100 on Sunday afternoon at Oracle Arena. Although Houston cashed as six-point underdogs, the Rockets had plenty of gripes with the officiating, especially on how the game was called against league MVP James Harden.
Harden led the Rockets with 35 points, as 13 of those points came at the foul line. However, he shot 9-of-28 from the field, including 4-of-16 from long distance as Harden had an opportunity to tie the game late. Harden missed the three-pointer as questions arose whether or not he was fouled by Draymond Green.
Meanwhile, Kevin Durant continued his hot scoring run for the Warriors by posting a 35-point effort following his 50-point output in the series-clinching win over the Clippers last Friday. Stephen Curry didn’t put up great numbers (18 points on 5-of-12 shooting), but he drilled a critical three-pointer with under 30 seconds remaining to give Golden State a 103-98 advantage.
The Rockets picked up their fourth cover in five meetings with the Warriors this season, while improving to 3-0 ATS at Oracle Arena. The UNDER cashed for the ninth time in the past 10 matchups dating back to Game 3 of last season’s Western Conference Finals, as the two teams easily finished UNDER the total of 224 in Game 1. Houston reached the 100-point mark for only the second time in the last seven playoff hookups with Golden State in Oakland since 2016.
The oddsmakers have adjusted the total from 224 to 220 ½ for Game 2, as the Warriors have hit the OVER in two playoff games against the Clippers coming off an UNDER.
NBA expert Tony Mejia checks in with his thoughts on tonight’s critical Game 2 by the Bay, “The Warriors and Rockets both shot terribly by their standards, which combined with a failure to call illegal closeouts in the first half, really gave the OVER no chance to clear the posted total. Chris Paul didn’t get suspended for Game 2 despite his outburst against an official, but I don’t think we’re through with the refs playing too large a role in this series. They’re being put in a no-win situation by players looking to draw whistles by kicking their feet out and defenders not allowing shooters space to land."
"There’s no way this doesn’t continue on Tuesday night, so expect a parade to the free-throw line. If everyone’s not thrown off rhythm by all the stoppages in play and we get an increase in made 3-pointers, we should see these teams approach 220 points, which is a good reason the number jumped from its opening position of 218.5,” Mejia notes.
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NBA
Long Sheet
Tuesday, April 30
BOSTON (54 - 33) at MILWAUKEE (64 - 23) - 4/30/2019, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 51-33 ATS (+14.7 Units) in all games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 44-30 ATS (+11.0 Units) as a favorite this season.
MILWAUKEE is 23-13 ATS (+8.7 Units) in the second half of the season this season.
MILWAUKEE is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite this season.
MILWAUKEE is 41-28 ATS (+10.2 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
MILWAUKEE is 40-26 ATS (+11.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
BOSTON is 103-79 ATS (+16.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 33-20 ATS (+11.0 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 79-58 ATS (+15.2 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 24-13 ATS (+9.7 Units) in road games in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) against Central division opponents this season.
BOSTON is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in all playoff games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 20-3 ATS (+16.7 Units) off an upset win as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 32-20 ATS (+10.0 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 55-39 ATS (+12.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 73-54 ATS (+13.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 428-495 ATS (-116.5 Units) in home games since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 211-259 ATS (-73.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 13-5 against the spread versus MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 10-8 straight up against MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
11 of 17 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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HOUSTON (57 - 31) at GOLDEN STATE (62 - 27) - 4/30/2019, 10:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GOLDEN STATE is 139-104 ATS (+24.6 Units) in April games since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 71-48 ATS (+18.2 Units) in all playoff games since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 89-62 ATS (+20.8 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
HOUSTON is 128-96 ATS (+22.4 Units) after 3 or more consecutive unders since 1996.
HOUSTON is 27-17 ATS (+8.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
HOUSTON is 39-26 ATS (+10.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 38-50 ATS (-17.0 Units) in all games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 34-47 ATS (-17.7 Units) as a favorite this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 17-27 ATS (-12.7 Units) in home games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) on Tuesday nights over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 48-63 ATS (-21.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 30-45 ATS (-19.5 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 15-24 ATS (-11.4 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 31-39 ATS (-11.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 10-8 against the spread versus GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 10-9 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
14 of 19 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NBA
Tuesday, April 30
Trend Report
Boston Celtics
Boston is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games
Boston is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Boston's last 12 games on the road
Boston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Boston's last 13 games when playing Milwaukee
Boston is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
Boston is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Boston's last 18 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Milwaukee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Milwaukee's last 12 games
Milwaukee is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Boston
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Milwaukee's last 13 games when playing Boston
Milwaukee is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games when playing at home against Boston
Milwaukee is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Milwaukee's last 18 games when playing at home against Boston
Houston Rockets
Houston is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games
Houston is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 7 games
Houston is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Houston is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games on the road
Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Golden State
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Houston's last 10 games when playing Golden State
Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Golden State
Houston is 5-14 SU in its last 19 games when playing on the road against Golden State
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games when playing on the road against Golden State
Golden State Warriors
Golden State is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Golden State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Golden State's last 6 games
Golden State is 7-14-1 ATS in its last 22 games at home
Golden State is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Golden State's last 15 games at home
Golden State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Golden State's last 10 games when playing Houston
Golden State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Houston
Golden State is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games when playing at home against Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Golden State's last 6 games when playing at home against Houston
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NBA
Dunkel
Tuesday, April 30
Boston @ Milwaukee
Game 571-572
April 30, 2019 @ 8:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Boston
126.405
Milwaukee
122.621
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Boston
by 4
224
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Milwaukee
by 7 1/2
219 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Boston
(+7 1/2); Over
Houston @ Golden State
Game 573-574
April 30, 2019 @ 10:30 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Houston
128.246
Golden State
124.677
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 3 1/2
209
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Golden State
by 5 1/2
220 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(+5 1/2); Under
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