Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Saturday 4/27/19
76ers/Raptors both won first round series in five games; both should be well-rested. Philly lost three of four games with Toronto this season, losing by 17-11 points in their two visits to Canada. Three of four series games stayed under the total. Raptors won 11 of last 13 games overall; they covered four of last five home games. Under is 6-2-1 in their last nine games. 76ers won six of their last eight games; they covered three of their last four road games. 13 of their last 19 games went over the total.
Home side won 14 of last 16 San Antonio-Denver games. Spurs outscored Denver 30-18 in 4th quarter Thursday, shot 57% from floor and won by 17 to even series 3-3. Home team is 4-2 in this series, with two of three games in this building staying under total. Nuggets were 6-24 on arc in Game 6, after going 44-93 in Games 3-5. SA was +18 in 20:00 with Belinelli on floor in Game 6; Gay scored 19 points in 28:00, as Spurs’ bench played big role in win. Seven of last ten series games stayed under the total.
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Toronto Raptors Preview and Predictions 04-27-2019 in NBA
The Toronto Raptors are willing to ride Kawhi Leonard as far as he can take them as they enter the Eastern Conference second-round series against the visiting Philadelphia 76ers on Saturday. The All-Star small forward, who is scheduled to become a free agent after the season, averaged 27.8 points and 6.6 rebounds in the first round against the Orlando Magic.
The second-seeded Raptors went 3-1 against the 76ers this season as Leonard averaged 30.3 points, 7.7 rebounds and four steals in three games and now Philadelphia is likely to assign Ben Simmons to be the primary defender while mixing in others. "I think you're going to see multiple people, we have the ability to have multiple people guard Kawhi," 76ers coach Brett Brown told reporters. "So it would be wrong to assume that's (Simmons') matchup for the series but for sure he will be on him." Third-seeded Philadelphia dispatched the Brooklyn Nets in its first-round series and is looking to win multiple playoff series for the first time since losing in the 2001 NBA Finals. Toronto has lost in the second round in each of the past two seasons after reaching the Eastern Conference finals in 2016.
TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, TNT, Sportsnet One (Toronto)
ABOUT THE 76ERS: Center Joel Embiid, who has battled knee issues of late, averaged 26.3 points and 11.8 rebounds against the Raptors in the regular season, while Simmons committed an average of 6.3 turnovers - 24 of the 25 came in losses - while recording 16.3 points, 9.3 rebounds and 8.8 assists. Small forward Jimmy Butler said his club is entering the series on a high and he figures that will aid the quest against the Raptors. "I think confidence is key," Butler told reporters. "We need everybody to be healthy but as long as everybody is confident and competing, we will continue to grow and will continue to get better."
ABOUT THE RAPTORS: Leonard had outings of 36 and 31 points in the regular season against the 76ers and coach Nick Nurse sees a player that is ready to do further damage. "He's been through this before, the playoffs, and has made deep runs, obviously," Nurse said of a player who earned NBA Finals MVP for the San Antonio Spurs in 2014. "He relishes this time of year and I think it shows. Playing strong, playing fast, playing defense. He's a great two-way player. He's a great player in this league." Leonard has been receiving yeoman help from young forward Pascal Siakam, who averaged 22.6 points and 8.4 rebounds in the series against Orlando
BUZZER BEATERS
1. Philadelphia has lost 13 straight games in Toronto dating back to a 93-83 win on Nov. 10, 2012.
2. The Raptors are just 2-14 in Game 1s and dropped the opener in the Orlando series.
3. Brown said he expects reserve F Mike Scott (foot) to miss Game 1.
PREDICTION: Raptors 108, 76ers 102
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San Antonio Spurs vs. Denver Nuggets Preview and Predictions 04-27-2019 in NBA
The San Antonio Spurs forced a Game 7 but the Denver Nuggets figure they have the edge because Saturday's decisive game is in their home facility. Denver was an NBA-best 34-7 at home in the regular season and hopes to cash in on earning homecourt advantage for the Western Conference first-round series.
The second-seeded Nuggets were unable to clinch on Thursday in San Antonio as they lost 120-103 but now have the friendly fans on their side. "We worked hard to get homecourt advantage to go home and play a Game 7," Denver coach Michael Malone told reporters after Game 6. "We had the best home record in the NBA this year, so that's what we're looking forward to." The seventh-seeded Spurs came through with their backs against the wall and shooting guard DeMar DeRozan said it was due to a more forceful approach. "They've been great at throwing a punch at us and running away with it," DeRozan told reporters. "We tried to sustain that and understand whatever they do we have to match it, be more aggressive, understand we have to keep our rhythm, being aggressive on both ends and we did that."
TV: 10 p.m. ET, TNT, Altitude (Denver), FS Southwest (San Antonio)
ABOUT THE SPURS: San Antonio is looking to avoid its second straight first-round exit and it staved off elimination in impressive fashion in Game 6 when it shot 57.1 percent from the field and committed just eight turnovers. "We had a lot of people participate," Spurs coach Gregg Popovich told reporters afterward. "Lot of people came and had good games. I think the Nuggets have had that pretty regularly and we had that (in Game 6), so, that was great to see." DeRozan was an efficient 12-of-16 shooting while recording 25 points, seven rebounds and seven assists and power forward LaMarcus Aldridge had team highs of 26 points and 10 rebounds.
ABOUT THE NUGGETS: The postseason has been a coming-out party for All-Star center Nikola Jokic and he established a franchise playoff record with 43 points in Game 6, surpassing the 42 scored by Hall of Famer Alex English in 1983. Jokic, who made 19-of-30 shots on Thursday, is averaging 23.5 points, 11.7 rebounds and nine assists with five double-doubles in the series. Denver's 3-point shooting (6-of-24) and its bench (13 points on 5-of-24 shooting) were liabilities in the Game 6 loss.
BUZZER BEATERS
1. The Spurs won Game 1 in Denver, 101-96.
2. Nuggets PG Jamal Murray is averaging 18.3 points in the series but Thursday's 7-of-18 shooting effort was his third below 40 percent in that span.
3. San Antonio backup SF Rudy Gay scored a series-best 19 points on 7-of-11 shooting after averaging six points on 7-of-33 shooting over the previous four games.
PREDICTION: Spurs 107, Nuggets 103
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Kevin Rogers
Eastern Conference Second Round – Game 1
No. 3 Philadelphia at No. 2 Toronto (TNT, 7:35 p.m. ET)
2018-19 Regular Season (Raptors 3-1, Over 2-2)
Oct. 30 - Raptors (-6) 129 vs. 76ers 112 (Over 227.5)
Dec. 5 – Raptors (-6.5) 113 vs. 76ers 102 (Under 229)
Dec. 22 – 76ers (-7) 126 vs. Raptors 101 (Over 221)
Feb. 5 – Raptors (+2) 119 at 76ers 107 (Under 230)
Both the Raptors and 76ers were expected to make the second round of the playoffs, but nobody predicted each of these Atlantic division squads would lose their postseason opener. Toronto and Philadelphia each overcame early upsets to win four consecutive games and advance to the conference semifinals for the second straight season.
The Raptors were tripped up by the Magic on a last-second three-pointer in Game 1, but Toronto roared back with four wins in a row, including three by double-digits. Toronto’s defense clamped down after allowing 104 points in the series opener as the Raptors yielded 82, 93, 85, and 96 points to move onto the second round of the playoffs for the fourth consecutive season.
Kawhi Leonard stepped up in his first postseason in a Raptors’ uniform by averaging 27.8 points per game, including a 37-point performance in a Game 2 blowout of Orlando. Forward Pascal Siakam averaged 16.9 ppg in the regular season, but was a force in the opening round by scoring 22.6 ppg, including racking up a pair of double-doubles.
The 76ers fell behind early in Game 1 against the Nets and couldn’t recover in a 111-102 defeat as 7 ½-point home favorites. Philadelphia rebounded nicely in Game 2 by dropping 145 points on Brooklyn, including a monster 51-point output in the third quarter of a 145-123 blowout. Six 76ers scored at least 15 points and that group didn’t include Jimmy Butler, who was limited to seven points.
The Sixers traveled to Barclays Center for Game 3 and played without star center Joel Embiid, but Philadelphia rolled to a 131-115 victory behind 31 points from Ben Simmons on 11-of-13 shooting from the floor. Embiid showed no signs of rust in Game 4 as the Sixers rallied past the Nets, 112-108 as Philadelphia improved to 4-0 on the road in the first round the last two postseasons. The Sixers finished off the series in Game 5 after jumping out to a 23-2 lead in a 122-100 blowout as nine-point favorites.
Toronto captured three of four regular season meetings, including both matchups at Scotiabank Arena. The Raptors rolled past the Sixers in late October, 129-112 to cash as six-point favorites, led by Leonard’s 31 points. Toronto beat Philadelphia again at home in early December, 113-102 as Leonard and Butler went back and forth scoring. Leonard finished with 36 points, while Butler posted 38 points in his first matchup with Toronto after getting dealt by Minnesota.
Philadelphia broke through against Toronto in the third matchup, 126-101 at Wells Fargo Center as the Sixers outscored the Raptors by 19 points in the second half. Leonard didn’t suit up for Toronto, while Embiid posted a double-double with 27 points and 11 rebounds. The Raptors won the final meeting in Philadelphia, 119-107 as Toronto went into halftime owning a 17-point halftime edge. Leonard was limited to 3-of-11 shooting from the floor, but hit 16 free throws to lead Toronto with 24 points.
After losing to the Magic in their first-round opener at home, the Raptors dropped to 2-14 all-time in postseason Game 1s. Chris David of VegasInsider.com believes that record is factored into the opening number of this series, which is the Raptors -5.
He explained, “As a bettor, it’s tough to trust Toronto as a home favorite in the playoffs. Since the 2014 postseason, the club has gone 15-10 SU and 9-15-1 ATS. However, The Raptors did trounce the Magic by double digits in Game 2 and 5 behind an offense that averaged 113 PPG. In three wins and covers in last year’s playoffs versus the Wizards, the attack posted 117.3 PPG.”
David feels that the poor ATS playoff records for Toronto at home could be overlooked by its recent domination of Philadelphia. He added, “This Philadelphia squad is certainly more talented than Orlando and Washington but it’s had plenty of trouble against Toronto. Ignoring the fact that the Raptors have gone 6-2 both SU and ATS in their last eight encounters with the 76ers would be foolish. Toronto has big advantages in three key categories – defense, 3-point shooting and depth. Knowing Philadelphia hasn’t won in Canada since 2012 makes it tough to trust the ‘dog come Saturday but the oddsmakers have me scratching my head. Since Philly became competitive again, it was getting 6 to 9 points in its last four trips to Toronto. Now the line is five?”
Game 7 – Spurs at Nuggets – 10:05 PM EST – TNT
Series tied at 3-3
The lone Game 7 to take place in this season’s chalk-heavy playoffs is between a #2 and #7 seed. Denver and San Antonio were separated by six games in the regular season, so the Spurs forcing a seventh game shouldn’t be a huge shocker. However, the last four contests in this series have been decided by double-digits, while San Antonio has lost two games after squandering leads of 19 in Game 2 and 12 in Game 4.
The Spurs gave up another double-digit advantage in Game 6 after leading 34-24 following one quarter. Denver rallied to go in front in the second quarter, but the Spurs closed out strong to lead by four at halftime. San Antonio pulled away in the fourth quarter to grab a crucial 120-103 victory and reach a seventh game for the first time since the 2015 first round against the Clippers.
The key to San Antonio’s success in Game 6 was shooting extremely well as the Spurs knocked down 57% of their shots from the floor, including an efficient 12-of-16 performance from DeMar DeRozan. The Spurs’ guard scored 25 points, while LaMarcus Aldridge paced San Antonio with 26 points and veteran Rudy Gay dropped in 19 points off the bench. The Nuggets’ bench produced only 13 points, while Nikola Jokic carried the load for Denver with a career-high 43 points.
The OVER has hit in four of six games in this series as the two UNDERS have come at Pepsi Center in Games 1 and 5. In four of five meetings in Denver this season, the Spurs and Nuggets have seen the UNDER cash as the totals in this series have fluctuated between 208 and 210 ½ (Saturday’s total sits at 209).
Last season, four series reached a Game 7 as the home team went 2-2 in those contests. In the conference finals, both road teams (Cleveland and Golden State) captured victories on their way to the NBA Finals. San Antonio last picked up a Game 7 win in the opening round of the 2014 playoffs against Dallas as that Spurs’ squad eventually won the NBA title. Denver hasn’t won a Game 7 in the postseason since the 1978 semifinals against Milwaukee, while falling to the Lakers in its previous Game 7 appearance in the 2012 opening round.
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NBA
Saturday, April 27
Trend Report
Philadelphia 76ers
Philadelphia is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Philadelphia's last 19 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games on the road
Philadelphia is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games when playing Toronto
Philadelphia is 3-21 SU in its last 24 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Philadelphia's last 14 games when playing Toronto
Philadelphia is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Philadelphia is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 7 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Toronto Raptors
Toronto is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games
Toronto is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto's last 6 games
Toronto is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Toronto is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Toronto is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games when playing Philadelphia
Toronto is 21-3 SU in its last 24 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Toronto's last 14 games when playing Philadelphia
Toronto is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
Toronto is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 7 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
San Antonio Spurs
San Antonio is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Antonio's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of San Antonio's last 12 games on the road
San Antonio is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Antonio's last 5 games when playing Denver
San Antonio is 16-7 ATS in its last 23 games when playing on the road against Denver
San Antonio is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Antonio's last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver
Denver Nuggets
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games
Denver is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Denver is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Denver's last 10 games at home
Denver is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games when playing San Antonio
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games when playing San Antonio
Denver is 7-16 ATS in its last 23 games when playing at home against San Antonio
Denver is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against San Antonio
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games when playing at home against San Antonio
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NBA
Long Sheet
Saturday, April 27
SAN ANTONIO (51 - 37) at DENVER (57 - 31) - 4/27/2019, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN ANTONIO is 11-21 ATS (-12.1 Units) after scoring 115 points or more this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 16-29 ATS (-15.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 27-17 ATS (+8.3 Units) in home games this season.
DENVER is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in home games revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 1093-959 ATS (+38.1 Units) in all games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 33-15 ATS (+16.5 Units) when tied in a playoff series since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 36-27 ATS (+6.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
DENVER is 15-27 ATS (-14.7 Units) against Southwest division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 10-7 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 10-7 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
9 of 17 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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PHILADELPHIA (55 - 32) at TORONTO (62 - 25) - 4/27/2019, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in road games vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 18-28 ATS (-12.8 Units) after scoring 115 points or more this season.
TORONTO is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in home games in April games over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 14-2 ATS (+11.8 Units) in home games vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 144-116 ATS (+16.4 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 64-46 ATS (+13.4 Units) in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) after a division game this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 39-19 ATS (+18.1 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 79-57 ATS (+16.3 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 46-29 ATS (+14.1 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 79-56 ATS (+17.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 46-25 ATS (+18.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
TORONTO is 208-263 ATS (-81.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 8-4 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 9-3 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
8 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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