Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Thursday 4/25/19
Nuggets won last two of last three games, making 44-93 on arc, after going 16-52 on arc in Games 1-2; Denver is 1-5 vs spread in its last six road games. Nuggets’ starters were +183 in last couple games- their bench was -63. White was held to 20 points in last two games after scoring 36 in Game 3; San Antonio is 0-5 vs spread in its last five home games. Spurs took 32 FT’s in both Games 3-4; they took 20-25-20 FT’s in Games 1-2-5 in Denver. Six of last nine series games stayed under the total. Home side won 13 of last 15 series games.
Denver Nuggets vs. San Antonio Spurs Preview and Predictions 04-25-2019 in NBA
he Denver Nuggets are in solid position to win a playoff series for the first time since 2009. Denver holds a 3-2 lead over San Antonio in the best-of-seven series as it visits the Spurs on Thursday for Game 6 of the Western Conference first-round matchup.
Second-seeded Denver won the past two games, including a Game 4 win that halted a 14-game losing streak in San Antonio, but is well aware eliminating the Spurs will be no easy task. "A close-out game is the hardest game that many of our young players will ever play in, especially against a team like San Antonio," Nuggets coach Michael Malone told reporters. The seventh-seeded Spurs are looking to avoid their second consecutive first-round exit and will have to put up a better effort than they did in Game 5, when they trailed by as many as 30 points in the 108-90 road loss. "We want to win two straight," San Antonio guard Bryn Forbes told reporters. "That's our goal, to play the best two games we can put together and try to win these next two."
TV: 8 p.m. ET, TNT, Altitude (Denver), FS Southwest (San Antonio)
ABOUT THE NUGGETS: All-Star center Nikola Jokic has four double-doubles - including one triple double - during a strong playoff debut that has seen him average 19.6 points, 11.6 rebounds and nine assists in the series. "You hear everybody talk about these other players, rightfully so," Malone told reporters. "The league is filled with great players. What Nikola Jokic is doing in his playoff debut has not happened very often in the history of this game. ... I hope this playoff crowd, this national TV audience that people are tuning in and watching us and saying, 'Man, this kid Nikola Jokic is real.' We know it and it's about time everyone else realizes it." Point guard Jamal Murray appears to have set aside his shooting issues from earlier in the series and he is averaging 23.5 points over the past two games to raise his average to 18.8.
ABOUT THE SPURS: Second-year point guard Derrick White struggled the past two games - averaging 10 points on 8-of-19 shooting - after his career-best 36-point outing on 15-of-21 shooting in Game 3. White said he is learning with each postseason game -"consistency is such a big thing," he said - but both the 24-year-old and coach Gregg Popovich know time is running out. "He's basically a young kid who's feeling his way," Popovich told reporters. "Playoffs are different than the regular season. And he's growing and every night is an education, whether he plays poorly or whether he's great. So, he's a willing young man, going to have a great future. But he's got to have this kind of experience. So, hopefully he'll bounce back on Thursday."
BUZZER BEATERS
1. Spurs SG DeMar DeRozan averaged 18 points in the back-to-back setbacks, dropping his team-best series average to 22.0.
2. Denver backup SG Will Barton scored 17 points in Game 5 and is averaging 14.5 over the past two games.
3. San Antonio C Jakob Poeltl scored 12 points on 6-of-7 shooting in Game 5 and is 18-of-27 in the series.
PREDICTION: Spurs 111, Nuggets 109
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Thursday's Playoff Essentials
Tony Mejia
Western Conference First Round – Game 6
No. 2 Denver at No. 7 San Antonio (TNT, 8:10 p.m. ET) -- Seiries tied 1-1
Apr. 13 - Spurs (+5.5) 101 at Nuggets 96 (Under 210.5)
Apr. 16 - Nuggets (-7) 114 vs. Spurs 105 (Over 210.5)
Apr. 18 – Spurs (-4.5) 118 vs. Nuggets 108 (Over 208)
Apr. 20 – Nuggets (+3.5) 117 at Spurs 103 (Over 209)
Apr. 23 – Nuggets (-5.5) 108 vs. Spurs 90 (Under 210.5)
You could make a great argument that the Nuggets have picked up every must-win in this series thus far.
After falling behind following a Game 1 home loss, Denver kept itself out of an 0-2 hole with a huge fourth-quarter comeback. It kept from falling behind 3-1 by snapping a 14-game losing streak in San Antonio at the most opportune time, pouring in 117 points, their second-largest output in over a month.
It’s time to see if the veteran Spurs can follow suit and answer the call when it matters most.
Although All-Star center Nikola Jokic is having a productive series, Nuggets point guard Jamal Murray has been the catalyst in all three victories, fueling the Game 2 surge by scoring 21 of his 24 points in the final 12 minutes. After scoring just six points on 2-for-6 shooting in Game 3, head coach Michael Malone called him out and demanded more aggressiveness and consistency. He scored 24 points in Game 4 and 23 in Tuesday’s big swing game. For the series, he’s shot 53 percent in the wins (25-for-47), scoring at a clip of 23.7 points per game, and is 10-for-29 (34.4 %) in the losses, averaging just 11.5 points and shooting 2-for-11 from beyond the arc.
Does San Antonio have anyone who can similarly drive its team’s success? On paper, there are options. At home, the Spurs are rightfully favored by a 3-spot. It’s time to see how much fight they have.
It appears the Spurs have no choice but to use Jakob Poeltl to counter the size and skill of Jokic, but they’ve got to find a more impactful way to disrupt Murray if they want to get back to Denver for a Game 7. Derrick White has been the x-factor for San Antonio, averaging 26 points in its wins on over 70 percent shooting while managing 13.3 points in the losses, which includes a really rough past two games. Malone’s tweak has involved utilizing Gary Harris on White more, and the defensive standout has made life extremely difficult.
Since most playoff series ultimately swing on adjustments, my belief that Gregg Popovich would find ways to help the Spurs impose their will over a Nuggets team that lacks significant playoff experience outside of Paul Millsap hasn’t come to fruition. Although Pop had a 9-1 mark in Game 5s dating back to 2013, Malone posted his first victory this deep into a series in his first game. Denver made him look great, leading by as many as 30 points in the fourth quarter. This will be his first close-out game in the head seat. Popovich has a pretty strong record in these too.
The veteran coach quipped that Game 5 was his “best Bobby Fischer” in a nod to Malone saying that he feels like he’s matching wits with a chess grand master. It’s subtle, but Pop sees what’s happening here. The opposing coach has done more to help his team win than he has managed to.
What we’ve found out over the past week is that Malone has more talented options and has been able to press the right buttons himself, earning full credit with tweaks like bringing Torrey Craig into the starting lineup as a better glue guy in this series than Will Barton, who has been liberated to be more of a scorer off the bench. We’ll see if Popovich has a wrinkle up his sleeve since his supporting cast has typically played well at home, increasing his options.
NBA expert Kevin Rogers believes in San Antonio’s ability to pick itself up based on its recent body of work.
“The Spurs have done a solid job of bouncing back recently off a mediocre offensive performance. San Antonio has won in six of its last seven instances after being held to less than 100 points, while topping the 120-point mark five times in this span,” said Rogers. “On the season, San Antonio has won three of four times at home off a road loss in which it was held to fewer than 100 points. On the flip side, Denver enters Game 6 with losses in eight of its last 11 games in the road underdog role, while trying to close their first playoff series away from the Mile-High City since the famous upset of the SuperSonics in Seattle back in 1994.”
We’re about to found out how these Nuggets handle prosperity, not to mention getting an early glimpse at the type of killer instinct they’re packing. Denver has certainly proven resilient in this series and will be playing at home this weekend regardless of tonight’s outcome since it will be flying home to either prepare for a Game 7 against the Spurs or a Game 1 of a Western Conference semifinal clash with the Trail Blazers.
The Nuggets haven’t defeated the Spurs in a playoff series since 1985, dropping four straight matchups, and they haven’t won consecutive games at the AT&T Center since Dec. 2009-Jan. 2010. San Antonio managed to upset Golden State in last year’s Game 4 of the first round to avoid being eliminated at home and have only been beaten once on their home floor to end a series since ’10.
Of course, a lot of that Spurs nostalgia has to be put to bed since Popovich is one of the few constant common denominators. Patty Mills and Marco Belinelli have been in a lot of the battles, but DeMar DeRozan’s presence and counting on kids like White, Bryn Forbes and Poeltl as much as they are gives this a much different feel.
De Rozan had a brutal showing in Game 5, looking lethargic and a step slow. He’s got to impose his will to make life easier on teammates and should be the most dynamic scoring threat on the floor if he’s right. The standout guard acquired in the Kawhi Leonard trade was a major catalyst in San Antonio’s inability to be remotely competitive earlier this week, so you can imagine his last 24 hours watching game film and preparing to redeem himself haven’t been pleasant. The Spurs went scoreless for key stretches and he shot just 40 percent, finishing with a series-low 17 points after missing nine of 15 shots. His energy level must improve.
After being significantly outclassed by the Nuggets’ bench in Denver, surrendering 38 points as Barton, Monte Morris and Malik Beasley all hit double-figures, Spurs’ reserves must answer the call at home. That starts with the vets, Mills and Belinelli, but must also feature an explosion from Rudy Gay and solid contributions from the likes of shooter Davis Bertans or rookie x-factor Lonnie Walker, the team’s most athletic scorer. The ‘over’ is up 3-2 in this series, but the ‘under’ had been on a 19-6 run in Denver games since the All-Star break. The ‘under’ was on a 16-5 run in San Antonio’s final 21 regular-season meetings, so there’s a chance both teams revert to their identities in an elimination game and this winds up the lowest-scoring game of a series that has produced at least 197 points in every contest. Game 7 would be played Saturday night in Denver.
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Thursday, 25 April 2019 • 05:05 PM
525 DENVER @ 526 SAN ANTONIO
Play on SAN ANTONIO against the spread in All games revenging a loss vs opponent
The record is 19 Wins and 4 this season (+14.6 units)
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Nuggets (54-28) at Spurs (48-34)
Denver strutted, shot and defended its way to a pivotal Game 5 win over San Antonio on Tuesday and is one win away from clinching a spot in the Western Conference semifinals.
But the Nuggets don't expect the seventh-seeded Spurs to go quietly when they meet Thursday night in the Alamo City in Game 6 of the first-round series.
The second-seeded Nuggets, who lost the series opener at home and nearly lost the second, head back to Texas after Tuesday's dominating 108-90 win in Denver. They are on the cusp of their first postseason series victory since 2009, when they reached the Western Conference finals.
Nuggets forward Nikola Jokic said he expects Game 6 to be the "toughest game of our lives."
Denver snapped a 14-game, seven-year losing streak in San Antonio with a 117-103 victory in Game 4 on Saturday.
The Nuggets carried that momentum into Tuesday and dominated Game 5, leading by 11 at the half and by as many as 30 points in the final quarter to seize their first lead of the series. Jamal Murray paced Denver with 23 points, one of seven Nuggets in double figures.
Jokic added 16 points, 11 rebounds and eight assists, and remained the hub of Denver's offense.
"What's remarkable about Nikola is he has that consistency," Nuggets coach Michael Malone said. "You expect greatness from him every night."
Denver's defense had a lot to say about the Game 5 win. In a 5:21 span of the first quarter, the Spurs managed only one field goal and missed seven consecutive shots. In the second quarter, San Antonio was held to another stretch of more than five minutes with just one made basket.
After Denver began the third quarter on a 17-4 run, the Spurs were all but forced to concede.
"They just outplayed us in every facet," Spurs coach Gregg Popovich said. "We missed a lot at the rim early, or it could have been a much more competitive first half. We've got to have more guys playing well for sure."
Malone labeled the Nuggets' third-quarter performance, in which they scored 32 points and led by as many as 28, one of their best of the season.
"We didn't even have to call any offensive sets," Malone said. "We were just playing the game, and obviously San Antonio's a team that started that many years ago, the beautiful game. But it's really fun to watch, as a coach, as a fan. And our guys thrive off that."
LaMarcus Aldridge, a non-factor in the series despite leading San Antonio through the regular season, paced the Spurs in Game 5 with 17 points and 10 rebounds. DeMar DeRozan added 17 points, but made just 6 of 15 shots from the field.
"There's always somebody that steps up in the playoffs," Popovich said. "You look for people to step up who aren't your major players. Every winning team, there's someone who seems to do that."
It seems like a lifetime ago when San Antonio held a 2-1 lead and owned the home-court edge against the Nuggets. Now the Spurs have to fight for their playoff lives to force a deciding seventh game in Denver on Saturday.
"We want to win two straight," Spurs guard Bryn Forbes said. "That's our goal, to play the best two games we can put together and try to win these next two."
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NBA
Long Sheet
Thursday, April 25
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DENVER (57 - 30) at SAN ANTONIO (50 - 37) - 4/25/2019, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 15-26 ATS (-13.6 Units) against Southwest division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in road games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 1092-959 ATS (+37.1 Units) in all games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 861-736 ATS (+51.4 Units) as a favorite since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 52-33 ATS (+15.7 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) in home games against Northwest division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 83-57 ATS (+20.3 Units) in home games in all playoff games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 28-9 ATS (+18.1 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 87-59 ATS (+22.1 Units) in home games after a loss by 10 points or more since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 197-146 ATS (+36.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 32-20 ATS (+10.0 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 9-7 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 9-7 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
8 of 16 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NBA
Thursday, April 25
Trend Report
Denver Nuggets
Denver is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Denver's last 9 games
Denver is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 6 games on the road
Denver is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing San Antonio
Denver is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing San Antonio
Denver is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games when playing San Antonio
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Denver's last 9 games when playing San Antonio
Denver is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
Denver is 1-14 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
San Antonio Spurs
San Antonio is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games
San Antonio is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of San Antonio's last 25 games
San Antonio is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Denver
San Antonio is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games when playing Denver
San Antonio is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Antonio's last 9 games when playing Denver
San Antonio is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Denver
San Antonio is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against Denver
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