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NBA Betting News, Match-Ups and Trends For Wednesday 4/17/19

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(@shazman)
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Betting news, trends, odds and predictions for from various handicappers and websites for Wednesday 4/17/19

 
Posted : April 17, 2019 8:16 am
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Orlando won 12 of its last 14 games, covered six of last eight road games; Magic made 14-29 on arc in Game 1 upset win. Raptors were only 9-14 on foul line Saturday; they were 12-36 on arc. Lowry didn’t score in 34:00 for Toronto, but they were +11 when he was on floor, -14 in 14:00 he sat out. Orlando is 3-2-1 vs spread in its last six visits to Canada. Raptors won seven of last nine games overall, are 4-4 vs spread in last eight home games. Toronto won six of its last nine games with the Magic; six of last eight series games stayed under. Seven of last eight Orlando games went over the total.

Nuggets were 6-28 on arc, Murray was 8-24 from floor in 101-96 home loss in Game 1; Denver missed lot of open shots in 4th quarter. Nuggets are 6-7 SU in their last 13 games, 2-6 vs spread in last eight home games. San Antonio won seven of its last ten games; they’re 6-3 vs spread in last nine road games. Spurs’ four subs were +32 in Game 1; Denver’s subs were -27. Home side won 10 of last 11 series games; Spurs are 3-2 vs spread in last five visits to Denver. Nuggets are in playoffs for first time in six years; their last first round series win was in ’09. All four Game 1’s on Saturday stayed under the total.

Trailblazers held Thunder to 5-33 on arc in 104-99 Game 1 win; Portland won 16 of its last 19 games; they covered their last four home games. OKC won five of its last six games (4-2 vs spread); they’re 4-9 vs spread in last 13 road games. Thunder are in playoffs for 9th time in last ten years; they lost in first round the last two years. Blazers are in playoffs for 6th year in row; they’re 2-9 in last 11 first round series. Thunder won/covered four of their last four games with Portland; they’re 2-4 vs spread in last six visits to Oregon. Five of last seven series games stayed under.

 
Posted : April 17, 2019 8:16 am
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Indiana was up 7 at half Sunday, then got outscored 46-29 in 2nd half, scoring 8 points in third quarter of brickfest where both teams shot under 37%. Pacers are 4-10 in its last 14 games overall; they covered three of last four road games. Celtics won seven of their last nine games; they’re 1-8 vs spread in their last nine home games. Over is 11-6 in in their last 17 games. Pacers lost their last four games with Boston; they’re 3-3 vs spread in its last six visits to Beantown. Seven of last 11 series games went over. Pacers are in playoffs for 8th time in nine years; they lost their first round series the last three years.

Milwaukee crushed Detroit by 35 in Game 1; game was 70-43 at the half. No one on the Bucks played more than 25:00. Unless Blake Griffin can play, Pistons are lost cause here. Bucks won nine of last 11 games with Detroit; under is 6-2-1 in last nine series games. Pistons are 2-4-1 vs spread in last seven visits to Milwaukee. Detroit is 4-5 in its last nine games; they’re 5-3 vs spread in last eight road games. Bucks won eight of last 11 games; six of their last eight games went over. Milwaukee is in playoffs for 3rd year in row; they lost last eight first round series- their last series win was in ’01.

Houston made 15-41 on arc in easy 122-90 Game 1 win over Utah; Jazz shot only 39%. Utah won eight of last 11 games; they’re 6-3 vs spread in last nine road games. Three of last three Jazz games went over the total. Rockets won/covered seven of its last eight games; they’re 6-0-1 vs spread in last seven home games. Over is 3-2-1 in their last six games. Houston won eight of its last 11 games with the Jazz; six of last eight series games stayed under. Jazz is 3-2-1 vs spread in its last six visits to Houston. All five Rocket starters scored in double figures in Game 1; Harden had “only” 29, a good sign for Houston.

 
Posted : April 17, 2019 8:17 am
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Wednesday's Tip Sheet
April 17, 2019
By Kevin Rogers

Game 2 – Pacers at Celtics – 7:05 PM EST – TNT
Boston leads series, 1-0

Indiana dropped three of four matchups with Boston this season, but looked to steal Game 1 of their first round series at TD Garden. The Pacers led the Celtics, 45-38 at halftime, but Indiana went ice-cold in the third quarter by getting outscored, 26-8, while converted only two field goals. Boston finished off Indiana, 84-74 to cash as 7 ½-point favorites and easily hit the UNDER on the total of 210 ½.

The Celtics improved to 4-0 in the last four playoff series openers, led by Kyrie Irving and Marcus Morris’ 20 points apiece. Irving shot 6-of-17 in his Boston postseason debut after missing last year’s run to the Eastern Conference Finals with a knee injury. Both the Celtics and Pacers were miserable from the floor (Indiana 33%, Boston 36%), but Nate McMillan’s squad misfired on 21-of-27 attempts from three-point range, while Cory Joseph led the way with 14 points.

Boston ended a seven-game ATS slide at TD Garden, marking its first home cover since March 1 against Washington. The 74 points allowed by the Celtics marks the best defensive effort this season as Boston yielded 77 points to Chicago on December 8, while Brad Stevens’ team gave up 83 points twice to Cleveland in last year’s Eastern Conference Finals.

“It’s easy to go into Game 2 and ride the UNDER eyes-closed given the series-opening result, but keep in mind that the Pacers were only held under 90 points three times this season and bounced back to top the century mark each time they took the floor next. Since the Celtics have only had two instances where they held opponents under 100 points in consecutive games in 2019, trends favor Indiana bouncing back, but it is going to need a better game plan than it came out with to open the second half after leading at the break.”

From the Pacers’ perspective, Mejia breaks down what they need to do in order to bounce back, “Tyreke Evans will have to be more aggressive and Indiana will need Bojan Bogdanovic and Doug McDermott to shoot far better than they managed in shooting a combined 0-for-7 from 3-point range.”

Boston has won and covered in all four Game 2’s under Stevens after coming up victorious in Game 1, as all four wins came by double-digits. Indiana suffered only second ATS loss in the last 11 road playoff games dating back to 2016, while the Pacers were dealt their first postseason defeat by at least 10 points since Game 3 of the 2016 first round against the Raptors.

Game 2 – Pistons at Bucks – 8:05 PM EST – NBA TV
Milwaukee leads series, 1-0

It feels like this series was over even before it began when news broke that Pistons’ All-Star Blake Griffin was sidelined due to a lingering knee injury. Detroit didn’t have much of a chance even with Griffin available as the Pistons lost all four regular season meetings with the top-seeded Bucks, but Sunday’s Game 1 at Fiserv Forum was enough proof this series will be done quickly.

Milwaukee jumped out to a 38-18 advantage after one quarter and cruised to a 121-86 blowout over Detroit to improve to 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS the last five matchups. All five Bucks’ starters finished in double-figures, led by MVP candidate Giannis Antetokounmpo’s 24-point, 17-rebound performance. The Bucks shot 49% from the floor and knocked down 15 three-pointers, while limiting Detroit to 38% shooting as reserve Luke Kennard led the Pistons with 21 points.

In the three losses at Fiserv Forum this season, the Bucks have outscored the Pistons by 23, 23, and 35, which doesn’t give Detroit backers a lot of faith even as hefty 15-point underdogs in Game 2. The last double-digit ‘dog that lost a first round series opener by more than 30 points and covered in Game 2 was the Mavericks in 2016, who tripped up the Thunder as 14-point underdogs, 85-84.

Game 2 – Jazz at Rockets – 9:35 PM EST – TNT
Houston leads series, 1-0

Last season, Houston needed five games to eliminate Utah in the second round of the playoffs. The Rockets continued their postseason domination of the Jazz in Sunday’s 122-90 rout to easily cash as 6 ½-point favorites. Seven Rockets posted double-figures, paced by James Harden’s 29 points, while Houston knocked down 15-of-41 three-pointers for its third consecutive victory over Utah since losing the first two meetings with the Jazz this season.

Utah was limited to 39% shooting from the floor, while getting outscored, 39-19 in the fourth quarter. Rudy Gobert led the Jazz with 22 points and 12 rebounds, but the Jazz misfired on 20 three-point attempts. Quin Snyder’s team lost each of their series openers last season, as they managed to grab Game 2 victories as underdogs against Oklahoma City in the first round and Houston in the second round.

Mejia is back with his thoughts for Game 2 at the Toyota Center, “This is definitely one of those matchups where the old cliché about the series not starting until the home team loses a game applies, but the Jazz need to at least save a little face before heading back to Salt Lake City. Donovan Mitchell and Joe Ingles shot a combined 8-for-22 while the bench finished an incredible 4-for-26, which included a pair of missed Grayson Allen layups that helped the Game 1 total remain just UNDER the closing number of 212.5. Jae Crowder and Royce O’Neale have been reliable all season and must be better. Considering the likelihood that they bounce back, the OVER may be the way to go in this one.”

All three matchups in Houston have finished UNDER the total, as the oddsmakers did not move off the 212 ½ number from Game 1. The Rockets moved to 7-1-1 to the UNDER in the past nine games at the Toyota Center, while improving to 6-0-1 ATS the last seven home contests. The Jazz were riding a five-game ATS hot streak as a road underdog prior to Sunday’s blowout loss, as Utah owns a 9-4 ATS mark under Snyder in the playoffs when receiving points away from Salt Lake City.

 
Posted : April 17, 2019 8:28 am
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537Indiana -538 Boston
BOSTON is 11-1 ATS (9.9 Units) in home games in playoff games over the last 2 seasons.

539Detroit -540 Milwaukee
MILWAUKEE is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) in home games versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% - 2nd half of the season in the last 3 seasons.

541Utah -542 Houston
UTAH is 10-1 ATS (8.9 Units) off 2 or more consecutive road losses over the last 2 seasons.
__________________

 
Posted : April 17, 2019 8:55 am
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NBA
Long Sheet

Wednesday, April 17

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INDIANA (48 - 35) at BOSTON (50 - 33) - 4/17/2019, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 99-79 ATS (+12.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 47-31 ATS (+12.9 Units) against Central division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in home games in all playoff games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 69-54 ATS (+9.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 92-78 ATS (+6.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) in April games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 7-5 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 9-3 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DETROIT (41 - 42) at MILWAUKEE (61 - 22) - 4/17/2019, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) in road games vs. division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 48-32 ATS (+12.8 Units) in all games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 41-29 ATS (+9.1 Units) as a favorite this season.
MILWAUKEE is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) vs. division opponents this season.
MILWAUKEE is 38-27 ATS (+8.3 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
MILWAUKEE is 37-25 ATS (+9.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
DETROIT is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing with 2 days rest this season.
MILWAUKEE is 427-494 ATS (-116.4 Units) in home games since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 398-473 ATS (-122.3 Units) in the second half of the season since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 73-103 ATS (-40.3 Units) in home games after a win by 10 points or more since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 92-125 ATS (-45.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
MILWAUKEE is 6-5 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
MILWAUKEE is 10-3 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
9 of 12 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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UTAH (50 - 33) at HOUSTON (54 - 29) - 4/17/2019, 9:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 24-15 ATS (+7.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
HOUSTON is 36-24 ATS (+9.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
UTAH is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
UTAH is 40-28 ATS (+9.2 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
UTAH is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
UTAH is 65-51 ATS (+8.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
UTAH is 39-23 ATS (+13.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 13-22 ATS (-11.2 Units) after scoring 115 points or more this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 10-6 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 12-5 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons
9 of 15 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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Posted : April 17, 2019 8:56 am
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NBA

Wednesday, April 17

Trend Report

Indiana Pacers
Indiana is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games
Indiana is 7-17 ATS in its last 24 games on the road
Indiana is 2-11 SU in its last 13 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Indiana's last 12 games on the road
Indiana is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Boston
Indiana is 6-16 SU in its last 22 games when playing on the road against Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Indiana's last 9 games when playing on the road against Boston
Boston Celtics
Boston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Boston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Boston's last 17 games
Boston is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Boston is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games at home
Boston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Indiana
Boston is 16-6 SU in its last 22 games when playing at home against Indiana
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Boston's last 9 games when playing at home against Indiana

Detroit Pistons
Detroit is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
Detroit is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games
Detroit is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Detroit is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Milwaukee
Detroit is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Milwaukee
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games when playing Milwaukee
Detroit is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
Detroit is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Milwaukee's last 8 games
Milwaukee is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Milwaukee is 16-4 SU in its last 20 games at home
Milwaukee is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
Milwaukee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 6 games when playing Detroit
Milwaukee is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 games when playing at home against Detroit
Milwaukee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit

Utah Jazz
Utah is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Utah is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games
Utah is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games on the road
Utah is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Utah is 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 games when playing Houston
Utah is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games when playing Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Utah's last 5 games when playing Houston
Utah is 5-9-1 ATS in its last 15 games when playing on the road against Houston
Utah is 4-13 SU in its last 17 games when playing on the road against Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Utah's last 6 games when playing on the road against Houston
Houston Rockets
Houston is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Houston is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Houston's last 21 games
Houston is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Houston's last 9 games at home
Houston is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Utah
Houston is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games when playing Utah
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing Utah
Houston is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Utah
Houston is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games when playing at home against Utah
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games when playing at home against Utah
__________________

 
Posted : April 17, 2019 8:57 am
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