Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Sunday 4/14/19
Pacers are in playoffs for 8th time in nine years; they lost their first round series the last three years. Celtics are in playoffs for 5th year in row; they lost in Eastern Conference final the last two years. Indiana is 4-9 in its last 13 games; they covered their last three road games. Celtics won six of their last eight games; they’re 0-8 vs spread in their last eight home games. Over is 11-5 in in their last 16 games. Pacers lost their last three games with Boston; Indiana is 3-2 vs spread in its last five visits to Beantown. Seven of last ten series games went over.
Thunder are in playoffs for 9th time in last ten years; they lost in first round the last two years. Trailblazers are in playoffs for 6th year in row; they’re 2-9 in last 11 first round series. OKC won its last five games (4-1 vs spread); they’re 4-8 vs spread in last dozen road games. Portland won 14 of its last 17 games; they covered their last three home games. Three of their last four games went over. Thunder won/covered their last four games with Portland; they’re 2-3 vs spread in last five visits to Oregon. Four of last six series games stayed under.
Pistons are in playoffs for only 2nd time in last 10 years; their last playoff series win was in ’08. Milwaukee is in playoffs for 3rd year in row; they lost last eight first round series- their last series win was in ’01. Bucks won eight of last ten games with Detroit; under is 5-2-1 in last eight series games. Pistons are 2-3-1 vs spread in last six visits to Milwaukee. Detroit split its last eight games; they’re 5-2 vs spread in last seven road games. Five of their last seven games went under. Bucks won seven of last ten games; six of their last seven games went over.
Jazz are in playoffs for 3rd year in row; they’re 5-2 in last seven first round series. Houston is in playoffs for 7th year in row; they won three of last four first round series. Utah won eight of last ten games; they’re 6-2 vs spread in last eight road games. Last three Jazz games went over. Rockets won/covered six of its last seven games; they’re 5-0-1 vs spread in last six home games. Over is 3-1-1 in their last five games. Houston won seven of its last ten games with the Jazz; five of last seven series games stayed under. Jazz is 3-1-1 vs spread in its last five visits to Houston.
Sunday's Early Tips
Kevin Rogers
Eastern Conference First Round – Game 1
No. 5 Indiana at No. 4 Boston (TNT, 1:00 p.m. ET)
2018-19 Regular Season (Celtics 3-1, Over 3-1)
Nov. 3 - Pacers (+3.5) 102 vs. Celtics 101 (Under 205.5)
Jan. 9 – Celtics (-7) 135 vs. Pacers 108 (Over 216)
Mar. 29 – Celtics (-7) 114 vs. Pacers 112 (Over 213)
Apr. 5 – Celtics (-1) 117 at Pacers 97 (Over 213.5)
The one Eastern Conference series that has been pretty much set for several weeks tips off Sunday’s playoff action at TD Garden. The Celtics and Pacers were going to finish as the fourth and fifth seeds in the East, but the only question was which team would own home-court advantage in the opening round.
Boston (49-33 SU, 39-42-1 ATS) jumped into the fourth position by winning six of its final eight games of the regular season, compared to a 3-6 record down the stretch for Indiana (48-34 SU, 41-41 ATS). One of the victories in this stretch for the Celtics came at Bankers Life Fieldhouse on April 5 as short favorites, 117-97 to finish off the season series victory over the Pacers.
Two games were decided by 20 points or more, both Boston victories, while the other two matchups between these teams were decided by a combined three points. The only win for Indiana in the series came back in early November as the Pacers overcame a 13-point deficit to edge the Celtics, 102-101 on a Victor Oladipo three-pointer in the final seconds. In the other close shave matchup between these squads, Kyrie Irving’s layup to beat the buzzer lifted Boston past Indiana, 114-112 in late March, but the Pacers cashed as seven-point road underdogs.
Boston was on the doorstep of the NBA Finals last season before falling short to Cleveland in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals. The Celtics managed to shoot 34% from the floor, including 7-of-39 from three-point range in an 87-79 defeat. Boston went through that postseason run without Irving and Gordon Hayward, while eliminating Milwaukee and Philadelphia in the first two rounds of the playoffs.
Oladipo led the Pacers in scoring this season by averaging 18.8 points per game, but suffered a season-ending knee injury against Toronto on January 23. Indiana owned a 32-15 record after beating Toronto by four points that night, but the Pacers stumbled to a 16-19 mark the final 25 games, which included a 10-game road losing streak.
Indiana has failed to advance past the first round in each of the last three postseasons as the Pacers have been bounced by the Raptors in 2016 and the Cavaliers in 2017 and 2018. In last season’s opening round series defeat to Cleveland in seven games, Indiana managed to cover the spread six times, while cashing in nine of the past 10 opportunities as a road team in the playoffs.
The Celtics finished with a better home record this season (28-13) than last season (27-14), but Brad Stevens’ team closed the season at 0-8 ATS in its final eight games at TD Garden. Boston won and covered in all three series openers in 2018, while the two wins over Milwaukee in the conference semifinals and Cleveland in the conference finals came by double-digits.
After winning at Washington on February 23, the Pacers lost nine straight road games and covered only once, coming at Denver in a two-point setback in mid-March. Although Indiana lost to Boston in the final seconds, the Pacers grabbed the cover as they are currently on a 3-0 ATS run away from Bankers Life Fieldhouse.
The last time the Celtics and Pacers hooked up in the playoffs came in 2005 when Indiana eliminated Boston in seven games. That ended a three-year stretch in which Indiana and Boston met in the first round, as the Celtics won in six games in 2003 before the Pacers captured series victories in 2004 and 2005.
Western Conference First Round – Game 1
No. 6 Oklahoma City at No. 3 Portland (ABC, 3:30 p.m. ET)
2018-19 Regular Season (Thunder 4-0, Split 2-2)
Jan. 9 - Thunder (+1) 111 at Blazers 109 (Under 223.5)
Jan. 22 – Thunder (-4.5) 123 vs. Blazers 114 (Over 225)
Feb. 11 – Thunder (-4.5) 120 vs. Blazers 111 (Under 232)
Mar. 7 – Thunder (+3.5) 129 at Blazers 121 OT (Over 233)
There are plenty of people that believe although the Thunder (49-33 SU, 42-40 ATS) enter this series without home-court advantage, Oklahoma City will knock out Portland and advance past the first round for the first time since Kevin Durant bolted for Golden State after the 2016-17 season.
The Trail Blazers (53-29 SU, 45-36-1 ATS) finished one game behind Denver for the top spot in the Northwest division, but Portland didn’t have much luck against Oklahoma City. Rewinding to 2017-18, the Blazers swept the Thunder in the four-game season series, but OKC flipped the script on Portland this season by capturing all four contests.
Oklahoma City slipped past Portland in the two matchups at Moda Center, including a 111-109 victory in early January as short underdogs. Paul George led the Thunder with 37 points, while Russell Westbrook scored 31 points to help the Thunder snap a six-game skid to the Blazers dating back to 2017. Westbrook drilled a big three-pointer in overtime of their most recent matchup in early March to lift OKC to a 129-121 triumph as 3 ½-point underdogs. In the loss, Blazers’ guard Damian Lillard dropped 51 points, but Portland converted only 9-of-41 attempts from three-point range.
Since that overtime defeat to Oklahoma City on March 7, Portland finished the season on fire by winning 14 of 17 games to vault to the third seed in the Western Conference. During that hot streak, the Blazers ran off eight straight wins at Moda Center, which included victories over Denver, Brooklyn, and Indiana. Terry Stotts’ team put together a 32-9 home mark, tied for the second-best home record in the Western Conference.
The Thunder finished March with a shocking three-point setback to the Mavericks as 12 ½-point favorites, but Oklahoma City dug themselves out of the dreaded eighth seed in the West to win its final five games. Billy Donovan’s squad went from potentially facing Durant and the two-time defending champion Warriors in the opening round to now maybe seeing them in the Western Conference Finals.
However, OKC needs to get past Portland in the first round and the winner of Denver and San Antonio in the conference semifinals to draw Golden State. In the last two seasons, the Thunder has failed to escape the opening round after losing to the Rockets in five games in 2017 and falling to the Jazz in six games last season. In the last two years, Oklahoma City has compiled an 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS mark on the road in the postseason, which doesn’t bode well for a team playing the first two games on the road.
Portland doesn’t have much playoff success on its side as the Blazers have been swept out of the first round the last two years. To no one’s surprise, the Blazers lost all four games to the Warriors in 2017, but Portland was shocked by New Orleans last season, in spite of owning home-court advantage. Portland covered as 15-point underdogs in the series opener to Golden State in 2017, but the Blazers are riding an 0-7 ATS run in the playoffs, while losing six straight Game 1’s since 2014.
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Sunday's Late Tips
Tony Mejia
Eastern Conference First Round – Game 1
No. 8 Detroit at No. 1 Milwaukee (TNT, 7:00 p.m. ET)
2018-19 Regular Season (Bucks 4-0, Under 2-1-1)
Dec. 5 - Bucks (-7.5) 115 vs. Pistons 92 (Under 225.5)
Dec. 17 – Bucks (-3) 107 at Pistons 104 (Under 225.5)
Jan. 1 – Bucks (-10) 121 at Pistons 98 (Push 219)
Jan. 29 – Bucks (-7) 115 at Pistons 105 (Over 216)
It’s hard to beat a team eight times without them getting on the board, especially when they’re well-coached. Dwane Casey surely has some ideas on how to try to give his team a fighting chance in this Eastern Conference 1-8. The Pistons are the last No. 8 seed to be swept in the East, falling against the LeBron James-led Cavs in ’16. They were swept in their previous postseason trip back in ’09 by LeBron’s Cavs too, so the last team in franchise history to win a playoff game is probably the one you remember best. Chauncey Billups and Rip Hamilton were among the league’s top guard combos. Tayshaun Prince, Antonio McDyess and Rasheed Wallace held down the frontcourt with Ben Wallace gone a couple of years by then.
That was 11 years ago.
Any chance to end that drought hinges on whether Blake Griffin can participate and be his normal self. Going into Game 1, that remains in doubt.
Knee soreness sidelined Griffin down the stretch throughout the final two weeks of the regular season, which forced Detroit to reach the postseason on the strength of center Andre Drummond and point guards Reggie Jackson and Ish Smith. They locked up the No. 8 seed and secured a .500 record by sweeping a back-to-back against the depleted Grizzlies and Knicks. Both the Heat and Hornets would’ve been better candidates to play spoiler here if Griffin isn’t available.
If he is, this series at least has a chance to be compelling.
Griffin averaged 24.3 points, 8.3 rebounds and 7.0 assists in the four losses against Milwaukee, but also committed seven turnovers per contest, making him rather inefficient to play through. Despite that, he’s certainly the best option to try and successfully score against a Bucks team that led the NBA in defensive rating (104.9). Thon Maker, Zaza Pachulia, Jon Leuer and Glenn Robinson, Jr. would be Casey’s options to pair with Drummond up front, though he can also go small and play four guards alongside the league’s top rebounder. Jackson and Smith run the point, while shooters Wayne Ellington, Luke Kennard, Langston Galloway and slasher Bruce Brown will man the wing.
Even with Malcolm Brogdon expected to miss at least this first round as he recovers from a torn plantar fascia and Tony Snell sidelined with an ankle injury, the top-seeded Bucks have more than enough ammunition to squash a Griffin-less Pistons team. Giannis Antetokounmpo had his own issues with a sore knee throughout the regular-season’s final month and missed two of the last three contests, but he’s good to go here. Milwaukee has won nine of the last 10 games he’s played in, including each of the last seven. The “Greek Freak” has averaged 31.8 points, 11.6 rebounds and 5.5 assists over his last 10. He shot 58 percent over the four conquests of Detroit, averaging 20.8 points, 8.8 boards and 7.0 assists despite shooting just 10 percent from 3-point range.
Point guard Eric Bledsoe averaged 20.5 points in the four games against the Pistons, while wing Khris Middleton averaged 19.7 points over the course of three wins against the team that originally drafted him, missing one due to injury. Drummond averaged just 13.8 points and 10.5 rebounds per game against the Bucks, well below his season averages. He shot just 44.9 percent from the field, his fifth-lowest clip among the 30 teams he faced this season.
Only the Clippers (+10000) are a bigger underdog entering this first round than the Pistons (+2000) are against the Bucks, who were a 5-to-4 (+125) choice to win the East at the Westgate SuperBook even before the Raptors and 76ers blew their first-round Game 1s. Milwaukee is +600 to win the NBA title behind favored Golden State (-200) and led the NBA in wins and margin of victory all season while ranking in the top-five in both offensive and defensive efficiency.
The Bucks were the East's top home team, winning 33 of 41 at the brand new downtown Fiserv Forum, which will host its first playoff game. The Pistons had the worst road record of any of the 16 teams that reached the playoffs, finishing 15-26. Their season-ending win in New York snapped a five-game road losing streak.
Milwaukee has seen the ‘over’ go 6-1 in its last seven contests. The ‘under’ has prevailed in four of the last five games involving Detroit.
Western Conference First Round – Game 1
No. 5 Utah at No. 4 Houston (TNT, 9:30 p.m. ET)
2018-19 Regular Season (Split 2-2, Under 3-1)
Oct. 24 – Jazz (+1) 100 at Rockets 89 (Under 217)
Dec. 6 – Jazz (-1.5) 118 vs. Rockets 91 (Under 215.5)
Dec. 17 – Rockets (-5) 102 vs. Jazz 97 (Under 212)
Feb. 2 – Rockets (+7) 125 at Jazz 98 (Over 222)
Considering how fun and competitive Saturday’s action was, the NBA looks like it has saved its best first-round offering for last. Of the eight series, only OKC-Portland and Denver-San Antonio are seen as more of a toss-up than this matchup featuring the Rockets and Jazz, the only pairing featuring two 50-win teams. It’s a battle of the two teams with best point differential since the All-Star break, though in Utah’s case, a favorable schedule contributed to some of its dominance. Houston has the league’s second-most efficient offense. Utah has the second-ranked defense. Game on.
The regular-season meetings couldn’t have been weirder. Each team won on the other’s home court once and got blown out there as well. Rudy Gobert got ejected over a beef with the refs in the second meeting, a 27-point Jazz win, but he struggled with foul trouble in one of the games and finished with just 10 points in the 27-point loss in the most recent encounter back in February. Neither Chris Paul nor Clint Capela participated in that rout, and both have actually struggled in the games they have played in against the Jazz.
Capela is shooting just 38.7 percent from the field and 33 percent from the free-throw line in his three outings vs. Utah, averaging only 9.0 points against its length. Paul has only suited up into of the four matchups, shooting 38 percent from the field and 16.7 percent from 3-point range in averaging just 11.5 points and 7.0 assists.
James Harden wasn’t slowed down. Although the 33.5 points he averaged against the Jazz is a lower figure than the 36.1 he managed to lead with the NBA this season, he shot 46 percent from the field and 36 percent from 3-point range and wasn’t shut down in any way by one of the league’s top defensive teams, so the Rockets are confident he’ll be able to get himself and teammates off at home to secure a good start to this complicated series. Houston went 31-10 at the Toyota Center, which was tied with Philadelphia for the league’s sixth-best home mark. The Jazz went 21-20 outside Salt Lake City, making them one of nine teams that finished above .500 on the road.
Donovan Mitchell helped land Utah in the No. 5 seed with a 118-108 win over Denver in which he tied a career-high with 46 points on Tuesday before sitting out the regular-season finale. Considering his streaky perimeter range and uncanny ability to use his body to get to the line, comparisons to Harden and the now retired Dwyane Wade have been made in regards to the second-year Jazz star, who already has one series victory under his belt after leading his team to a series upset of Oklahoma City as a rookie.
Mitchell has scored 30 or more in 17 games this season, which is obviously nowhere near Harden territory but certainly eye-catching. After struggling from the perimeter early in the season, he’s shot 45 percent from 3-point range since the All-Star break and can therefore get wherever he wants with defenders no longer being able to simply sag on him.
Ricky Rubio has been dealing with a quad contusion but he and backup point guard Raul Neto (ankle) practiced on Saturday and should be fine to play without limitations. The lone injury concern for either team involves Jazz shooter Kyle Korver, who is dealing with a knee injury.
Both teams have averaged 119.4 points over their last 10 games, each winning eight times. The Rockets are 25-2 when they win the rebounding battle, but that’s because they often struggle so much to close out possessions. The Jazz are one of the top teams on the boards and can therefore really do damage by convincingly winning on the glass.
The expectation here is that this will be a long series. The Rockets run more isolations than anyone, while the Jazz run the fewest. There will be games that should swing on whether officials swallow their whistle when Harden and Mitchell go trolling for contact in the paint, so this matchup is really one to break out the magnifying glass on. This first chapter may include feeling one another out, but could also swing on who shoots the 3-ball more accurately or who draws the most fouls. Harden shot 12 free throws in the Rockets’ losses and got to the stripe 31 times in their wins.
Utah will use Rubio and Royce O’Neale on Harden when it can dictate the defensive matchup here, while Eric Gordon will be tasked with dealing with Mitchell so the “Beard” doesn’t have to. It’s unlikely either team speeds the other up, so the total is back to 214, the neighborhood where it was for the first three meetings between the teams.
The ‘over’ has prevailed in three straight Jazz games, but the late-season atmosphere might have had something to do with that. The ‘under’ had gone 14-6 from Feb. 27-April 5. The low-side in 14-5-1 over the Rockets’ last 20 contests since the beginning of March.
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NBA TRENDS
INDIANA (48 - 34) at BOSTON (49 - 33) - 4/14/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games revenging a home loss vs opponent this season.
BOSTON is 98-79 ATS (+11.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in home games in all playoff games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 18-3 ATS (+14.7 Units) off an upset win as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 68-54 ATS (+8.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 92-77 ATS (+7.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games in April games over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 40-27 ATS (+10.3 Units) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) on Sunday games over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games in the second half of the season this season.
BOSTON is 11-20 ATS (-11.0 Units) after scoring 115 points or more this season.
BOSTON is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 6-5 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 8-3 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY (49 - 33) at PORTLAND (53 - 29) - 4/14/2019, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) on Sunday games this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
PORTLAND is 45-37 ATS (+4.3 Units) in all games this season.
PORTLAND is 34-22 ATS (+9.8 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons.
PORTLAND is 31-20 ATS (+9.0 Units) as a favorite this season.
PORTLAND is 47-33 ATS (+10.7 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
PORTLAND is 33-21 ATS (+9.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
PORTLAND is 33-21 ATS (+9.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
PORTLAND is 26-44 ATS (-22.4 Units) in the first round of the playoffs since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
PORTLAND is 7-5 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
PORTLAND is 7-5 straight up against OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
7 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT (41 - 41) at MILWAUKEE (60 - 22) - 4/14/2019, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in road games vs. division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 47-32 ATS (+11.8 Units) in all games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 40-29 ATS (+8.1 Units) as a favorite this season.
MILWAUKEE is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) vs. division opponents this season.
MILWAUKEE is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) after allowing 115 points or more this season.
MILWAUKEE is 37-27 ATS (+7.3 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
MILWAUKEE is 36-25 ATS (+8.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
DETROIT is 15-7 ATS (+7.3 Units) after scoring 115 points or more this season.
MILWAUKEE is 426-494 ATS (-117.4 Units) in home games since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 110-143 ATS (-47.3 Units) in April games since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 397-473 ATS (-123.3 Units) in the second half of the season since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
MILWAUKEE is 5-5 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
MILWAUKEE is 9-3 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
8 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
UTAH (50 - 32) at HOUSTON (53 - 29) - 4/14/2019, 9:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UTAH is 44-36 ATS (+4.4 Units) in all games this season.
UTAH is 101-71 ATS (+22.9 Units) on Sunday games since 1996.
UTAH is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
UTAH is 40-27 ATS (+10.3 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
UTAH is 23-14 ATS (+7.6 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
UTAH is 37-28 ATS (+6.2 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
UTAH is 39-22 ATS (+14.8 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 9-6 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 11-5 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons
9 of 15 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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