Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Saturday 4/13/19
Embiid (knee) is a ?? here. Brooklyn is in playoffs for first time in four years; Sixers lost in 2nd round of playoffs LY. 76ers won five of last seven games with Brooklyn; last three series games went over. Nets are 3-2 vs spread in last five visits to Philly. Nets won/covered their last three games; they covered six of their last seven road games. Under is 12-5 in their last 17 games. 76ers lost four of their last six games; they’re 5-2-2 vs spread in last seven home games. Five of their last six games went over.
Orlando won 11 of its last 13 games; they’re in playoffs for first time in seven years; Raptors are in playoffs for 6th year in row; they won their first round series the last three years. Toronto won six of its last eight games with the Magic; five of last seven series games stayed under. Orlando is 2-2-1 vs spread in its last five visits to Canada. Raptors won seven of last eight games, are 4-3 vs spread in last seven home games. Three of their last four home games went over. Magic covered five of last seven road games. Last seven Orlando games went over the total.
Golden State won three of last four NBA titles; they won first round series five of last six years. Clippers are in playoffs for 6th time in last seven years- their last first round series win was in 2015. Clippers lost three of last four games; they’re 2-3 vs spread in last five road games. Over is 10-2-1 in their last 13 games. Golden State won six of its last seven games (under 4-2-1). Warriors won eight of last ten games with the Clippers, but LA covered four of last six- Clippers covered four of last five visits to Oakland. Eight of last ten series games went over.
Spurs are in playoffs for 22nd year in a row; they split last four first round series. Nuggets are in playoffs for first time in six years; their last first round series win was in ’09. San Antonio won six of its last nine games; they’re 5-3 vs spread in last eight road games. Five of their last six games stayed under. Denver split its last 12 games, is 2-5 vs spread in last seven home games. Three of their last four games went over. Home side won last ten San Antonio-Denver games; Spurs are 2-2 vs spread in last four visits to Denver.
Jason Logan
Bucks and Nuggets are the biggest worry to Vegas bookies when it comes to NBA futures
The NBA Playoffs are here, with games tipping off this Saturday. If you’re betting on the NBA odds this postseason, we’ve got eight need-to-know notes for the eight Western Conference teams vying for the Larry O’Brien Trophy.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
NO. 1 GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
Season Record: 57-25
ATS Record: 35-46-1
Over/Under Record: 38-44
Odds to win NBA title: -251 at PointsBet
Odds to win West: -371 at PointsBet
At this point in their dynasty, the Warriors care about the regular season as much as Boogie Cousins does for NBA referees. Need evidence?
How about a 110-132-5 record against the spread over the past three regular season campaigns, including a 35-46-1 ATS count this season which tied as the second-worst bet in the league. Granted, the public appeal and talent-rich roster help puff up those nightly spreads.
However, come the playoffs, the Dubs flip the switch. Golden State is 37-25 ATS in the playoffs the past three postseasons, covering almost 60 percent of the time. A little motivation goes a long way with the Warriors, so don’t be afraid to lay the lumber with the defending champs.
NO. 2 DENVER NUGGETS
Season Record: 54-28
ATS Record: 42-40-0
Over/Under Record: 34-47-1
Odds to win NBA title: +3,500 at PointsBet
Odds to win West: +900 at PointsBet
The Nuggets have an edge as the No. 2 seed, earning home-court advantage in the opening two rounds of the NBA Playoffs. That means that opponents not only must battle the *****s of postseason play, but also climb the mountain and play in the thin air and altitude of the Pepsi Center more often than they’d like.
Denver compounds that energy-sapping edge with the best second-half defense in the NBA, allowing only 26.3 points per third quarter and an average of just 24.8 points in the fourth.
Bettors should look to jump on their second-half lines or in-game odds, especially when playing at home deep into a series.
NO. 3 PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS
Season Record: 53-29
ATS Record: 45-36-1
Over/Under Record: 43-37-2
Odds to win NBA title: +8,000 at PointsBet
Odds to win West: +2,500 at PointsBet
The Blazers battled their way to the No. 3 spot in the West, thanks in part to a soft schedule at the end of the season. Portland finished with a 14-3 SU run in its last 17 games but went just 8-8-1 ATS in that span.
Granted, the Trail Blazers were missing C.J. McCollum (who returned before the end of the season) and Jusuf Nurkic (out with a broken leg) for a chunk of that sked (those missing players are factored into the spreads), but faced only six playoff-bound teams during that streak and three of them were from the East (Detroit twice, Brooklyn, and Indiana).
Portland lost and failed to cover the spread in all four meeting with Oklahoma City – its first-round opponent – and is actually a +105 underdog in the series price, with the Thunder coming back as -130 favorites.
NO. 4 HOUSTON ROCKETS
Season Record: 53-29
ATS Record: 40-39-3
Over/Under Record: 39-41-2
Odds to win NBA title: +1,050 at PointsBet
Odds to win West: +600 at PointsBet
The Rockets do plenty right. Houston is 11th in scoring with the most dangerous player in the NBA on its roster – James Harden – capable to taking over any game. On defense, the Rockets allow just over 109 points per game (10th lowest) and rank as the second-best 3-point defense, a huge feather in their cap given today’s bomb-first NBA.
There is one big gap in Houston’s game plan and that’s getting down and dirty in the paint. Unfortunately, the Rockets’ first-round opponents, the Utah Jazz, thrive around the rim. Houston gives up 51.8 points in the paint per game – third most in the NBA – and allow 11 offensive rebounds per contests. Utah is among the best rebounding teams and picks up 47.7 points in the paint per outing – almost 43 percent of its total offense.
Houston is in for a first-round war. It’s a war the Rockets can win, but one that could take its toll and leave them gassed for a deep postseason run.
NO. 5 UTAH JAZZ
Season Record: 50-32
ATS Record: 44-36-2
Over/Under Record: 39-42-1
Odds to win NBA title: +5,000 at PointsBet
Odds to win West: +2,500 at PointsBet
As mentioned above, the Jazz are no strangers to getting their hands dirty. The big question this postseason is will they have enough healthy hands to finish the job. Utah enters the playoffs with a number of players either nursing or recently returning from injury, which is nothing new for a squad that’s rolled out 10 different starting lineups this season.
It’s the backcourt that should be the main concern for Jazz backers. They’ve been without versatile guard Dante Exum for most of 2019, sharp-shooting Kyle Korver is dealing with a bum knee, veteran PG Ricky Rubio has a quadricep issue, backup Raul Neto has a sore ankle, and superstar Donovan Mitchell has recently been treated for back spasms.
Cue the Rockets and their three-head backcourt beast of Harden, Chris Paul and Eric Gordon.
NO. 6 OKLAHOMA CIY THUNDER
Season Record: 49-33
ATS Record: 42-40-0
Over/Under Record: 40-41-1
Odds to win NBA title: +4,000 at PointsBet
Odds to win West: +1,600 at PointsBet
Oklahoma City is the hot “upset” pick in the first round, if you can call being the series price chalk an underdog. Sure, the Thunder are stuck with the sixth seed, but we’re dealing with two of arguably the Top 6 players in the NBA in Paul George and Russell Westbrook – both of which play with massive (and spicy) chips on their shoulder.
The thing you have to know about OKC – or perhaps watch out for – has been the team’s slow starts in recent months. Since the All-Star break, the Thunder have been outscored by an average of 3.6 points per first quarter.
However, OKC knows how to finish, outscoring opponents 28.6 to 25.7 in the fourth quarter during that same span. Bettors should look for value fading the Thunder in the first quarter and first half lines, then keep watch on the live odds for a chance to cash in on those late-game surges.
NO. 7 SAN ANTONIO SPURS
Season Record: 48-34
ATS Record: 43-37-2
Over/Under Record: 43-38-1
Odds to win NBA title: +10,000 at PointsBet
Odds to win West: +3,000 at PointsBet
The old guard of the Western Conference is back in the playoffs for the 22nd straight year. And while bettors may not fear the San Antonio Spurs like they once did, they better as hell respect them. The Spurs were a competitive 7-8 SU and 7-7-1 ATS against the Top 4 seeds in the West this season and are a tough out at home, going 32-9 SU (24-17 ATS) inside the AT&T Center.
This will be the Spurs’ first Kawhi-less playoff run since 2012 and the question on the minds of San Antonio backers is “who will take the shot?” The wild card is the play of DeMar DeRozan, who did well in his first season south of the border. During his time with the Toronto Raptors, DeRozan was counted on to carry the team during the postseason but had plenty of playoff flops and never really looked like the guy who wanted to take the big shot.
DeRozan slowed down in the second half of the schedule and sputtered toward the end of the season. He averaged 20 points on 54.5 percent shooting in four matchups with Denver – the Spurs’ first-round opponent – this season.
NO. 8 LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS
Season Record: 48-34
ATS Record: 45-36-1
Over/Under Record: 45-36-1
Odds to win NBA title: +15,000 at PointsBet
Odds to win West: +8,000 at PointsBet
Someone forgot to explain the finer details of “tanking” because the L.A. Clippers did it wrong. Sure, they traded away their best player midway through the season and fielded a lineup lacking star power, with their best player coming off the bench. Wasn’t it the other Los Angeles team that was supposed to be here?
The Clippers run one of the fastest paces in the NBA and knock down 38.8 percent of their looks from distance, yet don’t depend on the 3-ball like some of their Western Conference competition. Los Angeles picks up just over 26 percent of its points from beyond the arc – second fewest in the NBA.
The team’s surprise 2018-19 campaign naturally had them ranked among the best bets in the league, covering the spread almost 56 percent of the time, including a 23-17-1 ATS mark on the road. Funny enough, the Clips went just 16-21-1 against the spread as underdogs and will be getting the points in every game against the Warriors to open the playoffs. Golden State blasted L.A. in their two most recent meetings.
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Playoff Trends to Watch
Marc Lawrence
With a helping hand from our trusted well-oiled database, let’s examine four key time-tested proven theories that have lined our pockets during the opening round of playoffs since 1991. Here’s what the machine has to say as we head into the 2019 postseason.
No. 8 Seeds Are Often Behind The 8-Ball
For the most part, No. 8 seeds in the NBA playoffs are teams that likely scratched and clawed their way into the post-season. Simply put, they are not good enough to be seriously considered threats against top-seeded opponents, as they were just barely better than the dregs of the league.
Rest assured, their life expectancy is not long at all, as they’ve lost over 72% of the time (61-162 SU) in games against No. 1 seeds since 1996. In fact, only the 1996 New York Knicks, the 2007 Golden State Warriors, and the 2012 Philadelphia 76ers were good enough to pull the rug on top-seeded foes and advance to Round Two of the playoff.
And you can virtually write them off in games against No. 1 seeds that are off consecutive SU and ATS wins. These guys scratch out of the match with alarming regularity, going 5-30 SU and 11-24 ATS, including 0-18 SU and 3-15 ATS when the 8-ballers are coming off a spread loss of more than 4 or more points in their last game. Be aware.
Upset Losers Are Winners
Yes, you read that right... it’s not an oxymoron. Instead, it’s a powerful handicapping edge. It occurs whenever a team was upset as a favorite in an opening round game and is at home in the game immediately thereafter.
That’s confirmed by the fact that they are 76-17 SU and 55-34-4 ATS, a rock solid number 61.7% winning spread angle. And if these upset victims happen to be a No. 1, 2, or 3 seed they are a jaw-dropping 42-4 SU and 29-16-1 ATS in these follow-up affairs, including 25-3 SU and 20-7-1 ATS when coming off a spread loss of 11 or more points.
Don’t be afraid of these chalkbusters. That’s because they don’t lose their composure. Instead, they almost always dig down deep and respond with aplomb in games after being embarrassed.
Double-Digit Dogma
Surprisingly, in the right role, double-digit underdogs do well in opening round contests, especially when playing off a playoff loss. These overweight puppies are 35-25-2 ATS in this role.
And if these same guys lost as a double-digit dog in their last game they zoom to 26-14-1 ATS, including 18-7 ATS against non-division foes.
Granted, these dogs are not exactly pedigree puppies but the fact of the matter is they tend to come up big against disinterested favorites not capable of chopping heavy lumber.
And Down Goes Frazier
The psyche of teams that are not playing well comes immediately to the surface during the opening round of the NBA playoffs. That’s evidenced by the fact that teams riding a 0-3 loss-skein in this round are wobbly and oftentimes one punch away from being counted out.
With glass-like jaws, these swirling 0-3 teams are just 87-110 SU and 87-102-1 ATS in opening round contests, including 16-52 SU and 26-42 ATS away from home.
Worst of all, road 'dogs of more than four points down 0-3 in the series are 3-32 SU and 10-25 ATS on their way to the canvas.
Trending
Defending champions, once again the Golden State Warriors in this case, are 86-35 SU and 66-50-5 ATS overall in opening round games the next season, including 19-8 SU and 17-9-1 ATS in Game One of Round One the following season.
Better yet, these champs are 17-8-1 ATS when coming off a loss of 6 or more points during the first round, including a spotless 6-0 ATS away since 2005.
Enjoy the opening round of the 2019 NBA playoffs.
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Eastern Conference First Round – Game 1
No. 6 Brooklyn at No. 3 Philadelphia (ESPN, 2:30 p.m. ET)
2018-19 Regular Season (Split 2-2, Over 3-1)
Mar. 28 - 76ers (-7) 123 vs. Nets 110 (Over 231.5)
Dec. 12 – Nets (+6) 127 at 76ers 123 (Over 224.5)
Nov. 25 – 76ers (-4.5) 127 at Nets 125 (Over 226)
Nov. 4 – Nets (+4) 122 vs. 76ers 97 (Under 224)
The NBA playoff opener will begin at the Wells Fargo Center with Philadelphia and Brooklyn meeting in an afternoon matchup. Oddsmakers opened the 76ers as seven-point favorites and the number dipped to -6 on Friday evening after an injury update was posted.
That alert was focused on 76ers All-Star forward Joel Embiid (knee) as he was downgraded to ‘doubtful’ for Game 1. The big man has missed 18 games this season and 14 of those came in the final 24 games. The 76ers went 8-10 in those contests.
Brooklyn is certainly hoping the big man sits out since Embiid has owned the Nets with 30 points per game, 14.3 rebounds and five assists in four games. The 76ers were a plus-27 with him on the floor against the Nets and minus-58 when the big man was on the bench. Saying he won’t be missed on both sides of the floor is a serious understatement.
If Embiid doesn’t go, Jimmy Butler and Tobias Harris will get his shots and both have been solid against Brooklyn so far. The 76ers are 2-0 versus the Nets this season with Butler in the lineup and 1-0 with Harris.
With or without the All-Star center, the homecourt of Philadelphia is still one of the best in the league and that showed this season as the club went 31-10 straight up and 21-20 against the spread in front of its fans. In the second-half of the season at home, the 76ers finished 8-3 SU and 5-6 ATS down the stretch.
Brooklyn has a lot of fresh faces that will be in the playoffs for the first time and this group often plays like it has nothing to lose. The Nets love to chuck from distance, averaging 36.2 attempts from 3-point land this season and that’s both won and lost them plenty games. Head coach Kenny Atkinson has done a great job rebuilding this franchise and he’s developed some nice players along the way, especially in the backcourt.
Guards D'Angelo Russell (21 PPG, 7.3 APG), an All-Star, and Spencer Dinwiddie (23.8 PPG) both posted great numbers against Philadelphia this season and if those guys both get going, the Nets certainly have the ability to hang around perhaps surprise.
On the road, the Nets went 19-22 SU this season and the offense (110.7 PPG) wasn’t as potent away from the Barclays Center. For bettors, the club was 25-16 ATS overall and Brooklyn enters this game on a 6-1 ATS run in its last seven road games, the lone non-cover coming to the 76ers on March 28. In that 123-110 decision, the 76ers had its main five starters on the court which included Embiid.
After missing the postseason for five consecutive seasons, the 76ers made a return trip last year and they were eliminated in the second round by the Boston Celtics. In five home games, Philadelphia went 3-2 both SU and ATS and the point-spread didn’t matter in any of the games. The three wins were all by double digits and the ‘under’ went 4-1 in those games. The Nets haven’t been in the playoffs since 2015 when they lost in six games (4-2) to the Hawks in the first round.
Total bettors will be staring at a number hovering around 232 points. The 76ers offense at home (118.2 PPG) has really thrived, opposed to its road numbers (112.1 PPG). The club has often come out firing at home too, averaging 31.4 PPG in the first quarter and that’s the best mark in the league.
Philadelphia (42-40) and Brooklyn (41-41) didn’t have any glaring total leans (O/U) this season but the high side went 3-1 in their four meetings. Knowing the Nets aren’t great defensively, it’s not surprising to know they averaged 117.1 PPG in their wins and 107 PPG in their losses. The offenisve scoring difference on wins (119.2 PPG) and losses (108.6 PPG) was even larger for Philadelphia.
Game 2 will take place from Philadelphia on Monday before the series heads back to Brooklyn on Thursday.
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No. 7 Orlando at No. 2 Toronto (ESPN, 5:00 p.m. ET)
2018-19 Regular Season (Split 2-2, Under 3-1)
Apr. 1 – Raptors (-6.5) 121 vs. Magic 109 (Over 216)
Feb. 24 – Magic (+7) 113 at Raptors 98 (Under 216.5)
Dec. 28 – Magic (+4.5) 116 vs. Raptors 87 (Under 207.5)
Nov. 20 – Raptors (-7) 93 at Magic 91 (Under 219)
Even though Toronto is listed as high as a -1500 series favorite (Bet $100 to win $6.66) over Orlando in this best-of-seven series, I do believe we could see a couple tight games but the favorite will come out on top in the end due to talent and depth.
For Game 1, Toronto opened as 7 ½-point home favorite and the line has been pushed up to 8 ½ as of Friday.
The Raptors went 32-9 at home this season but they weren’t that kind to bettors, producing an 18-23 mark against the spread. Expecting Orlando to win at Scotiabank Arena in the postseason is a tough argument knowing the team went 17-24 as a visitor this season. However, head coach Steve Clifford and company did surprise Toronto 113-98 on Feb. 24 as a road underdog and they turned a profit (23-17-1 ATS) for bettors on the road despite the losing mark.
Toronto is clearly the more talented team in this series but its success can be attributed to rookie head coach Nick Nurse and his ability to keep the group grinding despite using multiple lineups. All-Stars Kawhi Leonard (22) and Kyle Lowry (17) missed a combined 39 games in the regular season yet they still managed to post the 2nd best record in the NBA. For what it’s worth, the Raptors went 30-13 when the aforementioned players were in the lineup together.
After missing the playoffs for six straight seasons, the Magic return to the postseason and they enter this series in great form. Orlando won 11 of its last 13 games and it’s 15-8 record since the All-Star break was ranked seventh-best in the league, tied with Toronto as well.
This is certainly a step up in class for the Magic but a 4-2 record in its last six games as a road underdog shouldn’t be ignored. One of those losses did come to Toronto (Apr. 1) and that game blew up in the second and third quarters for Orlando, who was outscored 66-39 in that 24-minute span. Scoring droughts has been an issue for the Magic, who are ranked 24th in the league with 107.3 PPG and that’s the lowest average among playoff teams.
While the Magic have been hot down the stretch, so has Toronto. The Raptors closed the season with a 7-1 record and it produced a 6-2 ATS mark for bettors. The lone loss came by two points and the defense (104 PPG) has been lights out during this span, which could be the X-factor in this series.
Toronto (108.4 PPG) was ranked ninth in scoring defense while Orlando (106.6 PPG) is fifth in the league. The total for Game 1 opened at 216 and quickly swung to 213. The low side went 3-1 between the pair during the regular season and the early money is leaning to that theme in this series.
The Raptors watched the 'over' go 45-35-2 this season, which includes a 22-18-1 record at home. Meanwhile, Orlando's slower tempo produced a 44-38 mark to the 'under' and that included a 23-18 mark away from home.
Since Orlando hasn’t been in the playoffs since 2012, historical numbers certainly don’t help this squad but make a note that it was defeated 4-1 by the Indiana Pacers in its last visit to the postseason.
For Toronto, this will be its sixth straight trip to the playoffs and cashing tickets at home hasn’t been easy for the Raptors. Since this run started in 2014, Toronto has gone 15-12 SU and 9-16-2 ATS (36%) in playoff games at home. To be fair to the Raptors, five of the last six losses came against LeBron James and he won’t be standing in their way this postseason.
Prior to last year’s Game 1 win over Washington in the first round of the playoffs, the Raptors were 0-9 in opening round matchups dating back to 2000.
The Magic are listed as high as a plus-320 on the money-line for Game 1 but if you’re leaning to the road ‘dog, taking the points appears to be the better option. Including the two meetings this season, Toronto has gone 8-2 SU and 5-4-1 ATS in its last 10 home games versus Orlando.
The pair will have a couple days off before resuming the series in Game 2 on Tuesday from Canada. Orlando’s playoff opener will take place in Game 3 on Friday.
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No. 8 L.A. Clippers at No. 1 Golden State (ABC, 8:00 p.m. ET)
2018-19 Regular Season (Warriors 3-1, Split 2-2)
Nov. 12 - Clippers (+3.5) 121 vs. Warriors 116 (Over 226.5)
Dec. 23 – Warriors (-11) 129 vs. Clippers 127 (Over 234)
Jan. 18 – Warriors (-7.5) 112 at Clippers 94 (Under 241.5)
Apr. 7 – Warriors (-11.5) 131 vs. Clippers 104 (Under 237.5)
The two-time defending champs got a scare with Steph Curry spraining his foot in Game 81, but they’ve got to be satisfied with where they are health-wise. Considering all the injury-related issues they’ve had during their run of success and the fact they were adding DeMarcus Cousins to the mix, if you were to have told them at the start of the season that a mild foot sprain that won’t keep Curry from playing in Game 1 would be their greatest concern, they might have pulled a hamstring rushing over to sign up for it.
It’s time to see what this version of the Warriors can do.
Golden State is a 2-to-7 favorite (-350) at Westgate to win the West and is up over -400 at other shops and offshore books, so it’s important to shop around if you’re going to be laying such a heavy price to back them getting back to the Finals. To fully get behind their three-peat bid means you’re laying 1-to-2 (-200) at Westgate and something in that neighborhood no matter where you wager, which means you’re weighing whether there will be a better price point down the road. Barring injury, that’s doubtful.
On the road, the Nets went 19-22 SU this season and the offense (110.7 PPG) wasn’t as potent away from the Barclays Center. For bettors, the club was 25-16 ATS overall and Brooklyn enters this game on a 6-1 ATS run in its last seven road games, the lone non-cover coming to the 76ers on March 28. In that 123-110 decision, the 76ers had its main five starters on the court which included Embiid.
With Cousins on board, the Warriors are more talented than they’ve ever been. They were 23-7 in games he’s played in and then added Andrew Bogut to add another rim protector to the mix. Draymond Green shot 34 percent from 3-point range in March and 38.5 in April, improving his season clip to 28.5 percent. If he can avoid being a liability in that department, Steve Kerr’s team has no real weaknesses.
They even got one of the two opponent they most coveted in this first round thanks to Oklahoma City’s late push. While the Spurs would’ve also been ideal, there’s less travel involved with traveling to Staples to try and take out the Clips, not to mention a “home” feel since many of the Warriors will be sleeping in their own beds after games in the city.
The Clippers would’ve been better off in any other matchup than the one they backed into through losses in three of their final four games, but giving members of their young core a shot at the Warriors may pay dividends down the road. Danilo Gallinari, Lou Williams, Montrezl Harrell, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Ivica Zubac and Landry Shamet are all likely to be part of the rotation next season regardless of who signs up to lead Steve Ballmer’s L.A. takeover attempt. Patrick Beverley will be a free agent but has really taken to being the bulldog for this group. Ballmer is relishing in the fact that this group made the playoff despite the team dealing Tobias Harris in January to better position themselves for taking a shot at a pair of elite free agents this summer, so this is something of a free-roll.
Barring Curry aggravating his foot injury or some other misfortune befalling the Warriors, this isn’t likely to be a long series. The Clippers beat the Warriors only once, posting a 121-116 OT win at Staples in a game that featured Harris, Marcin Gortat and Mike Scott, all of whom are now gone.
Curry didn’t play in that contest but was present in the most recent meeting, a 131-104 blowout that’s also not truly indicative of what we can expect to see in this series since Gallinari and Beverley were both absent. Beverley’s ability to throw Curry off will be essential to keeping games close since he averaged 32.3 points in the three games that he did play. The expectation here is that we’ll see him try to be physical in this series opener, so this first quarter of Game 1 may be dictated by whether officials let them play or Curry can sell a few calls with some help from the paying customers at Oracle.
The Clippers have no answer for Durant, who has averaged 27.0 points, 8.5 rebounds, 6.8 assists in his four games against them and now doesn’t even have Harris to trifle with. Expect the Warriors to run offense through him and Cousins, which could lead to a slower pace than what we saw in the during the regular-season series. The total opened at 232, which was the highest of this entire opening set of Game 1s, but it’s far lower than it got during a Jan. 18 meeting that closed at 241.5.
Golden State has lost just two of the last 18 games it has played against the Clippers at Oracle since 2012 and is 27-11 in that span, which includes a 16-2 run since ’15. Doc Rivers has done a fantastic job rolling with the punches over the past few years and may have just engineered his best coaching job, but the fact is that he hasn’t been able to solve the Warriors and now has to deal with Cousins thrown in the mix against an undersized frontcourt once you get past Zubac.
He can be an important x-factor for the Clippers in this series since being effective early and avoiding foul trouble would allow Rivers’ to maintain continuity with his rotations in keeping the second unit intact. L.A.’s bench led the NBA averaging 53.2 points this season, so it will be looking to swing games in this series behind key reserves like Sixth Man of the Year lock Williams and Harrell, whose energy and post production is typically an asset. If Zubac can make Cousins work and stay out there, Rivers won’t have to get creative with his substitutions.
Gallinari (ankle) and Beverley (hip) will both be fine after being banged-up late in the season, so this first game will see both teams at full strength. Laying 12.5 points really hinges on whether you believe the Clips can withstand Golden State’s first punch despite two rookies and a second-year center in the starting lineup or if you see L.A. finishing strongly enough to even steal a cover in garbage time. It won just once outright in five games as a double-digit underdog this season, but went 3-1-1 ATS.
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No. 7 San Antonio at No. 2 Denver (ESPN, 10:30 p.m. ET)
2018-19 Regular Season (Split 2-2, Under 4-0)
Dec. 26 – Spurs (-4) 111 vs. Nuggets 103 (Under 216)
Dec. 28 – Nuggets (-4.5) 102 at Raptors 99 (Under 216.5)
Mar. 4 – Spurs (-1.5) 104 vs. Nuggets 103 (Under 229.5)
Apr. 3 – Nuggets (-5) 113 at Spurs 85 (Under 214.5)
The Nuggets have been one of the Western Conference’s best stories all season, winning the NBA’s toughest division and posting 54 wins, the fourth-largest total in franchise history. They haven’t been in the playoffs since 2013 or out of the first round in a decade, so we’ll now get to see whether the feel-good part of their tale ended with Game 82. Although they nearly fumbled away the No. 2 seed, a closer than expected win over the Timberwolves on Wednesday locked them into that spot, drawing them a Spurs team making their 22nd straight playoff appearance, part of a three-decade run where they’ve reached the postseason 29 times.
Denver head coach Mike Malone compared his matchup with Gregg Popovich as a “Mike Tyson knockout” but isn’t conceding anything, including the favorite’s role his team has earned through being the better team in the regular season. If you’re looking for a series price to make some money on, this is indeed a popular upset pick and one I’m riding since it’s widely available in the +225-to-+235 range.
Whether the Spurs impose their will immediately or fight back in the series after falling behind, they do have a major edge in playoff experience that has to factor in. Although most of the key contributors from the team’s championship runs are gone, Patty Mills and Marco Belinelli remain in addition to veteran leaders DeMar DeRozan, LaMarcus Aldridge and Rudy Gay, who have 128 combined playoff games between them.
Paul Millsap is the only player on the Denver roster with significant playoff run, having worked in 87 games with the Jazz and Hawks prior to this one. Will Barton and Mason Plumlee are the only other guys who can say they’ve been there before, which leaves Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Gary Harris to figure things out as they go along against a coaching staff that’s going to do everything in their power to try and disrupt their rhythm and mess with their heads.
Jokic was held to 1-for-5 shooting and committed five turnovers in the first meeting between these teams but shot 76.3 percent over the last three meetings, shooting 29-for-38 while averaging 21 points, 10 rebounds and eight assists. That’s the production the Nuggets have regularly gotten from their Serbian MVP candidate, but teams have neutralized him by employing a faster pace. Denver is 3-11 over the last few months in games where they’ve allowed 110 points or more, so I’d expect to see San Antonio try and push pace.
Derrick White, Bryn Forbes and rookie Lonnie Walker IV will be key to getting the tempo turned up, but they’re the Spurs’ untested x-factors. For Denver, key bench guys like Monte Morris, Malik Beasley and Torrey Craig will look to make an immediate splash off the bench, so it’s definitely a plus that they’ll get to make their postseason debut at home. Denver posted the NBA’s best record (34-7) on their home floor and will face a Spurs’ team that went 16-25 on the road, the second-worst mark of any team that managed to reach the playoffs ahead of only the East’s No. 8 seed Detroit.
Despite the disparity of Denver being a dominant home team and the Spurs struggling as much as they have on the road, this spread opened at 5.5 points, a nod to San Antonio’s experience. The total of 211 is second-lowest of the eight Game 1’s behind only Celtics-Pacers and the lowest it has been for any meeting between these teams this season. Oddsmakers fixed the number in the 214-216.5 range for three of the meetings and went up to 229.5 for the March 4 meeting.
The ‘under’ is on a 21-7 run over the past few months of Denver games and all four of the meetings between these teams resulted in games that failed to eclipse the posted total, so trend-trackers will likely favor the low-side. The ‘under’ is 16-5 in the last 21 games involving San Antonio.
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NBA
Long Sheet
Saturday, April 13
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BROOKLYN (42 - 40) at PHILADELPHIA (51 - 31) - 4/13/2019, 2:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 140-115 ATS (+13.5 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 51-35 ATS (+12.5 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in home games when playing with 2 days rest over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 30-18 ATS (+10.2 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 75-55 ATS (+14.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 42-24 ATS (+15.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 45-37 ATS (+4.3 Units) in all games this season.
BROOKLYN is 33-23 ATS (+7.7 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.
BROOKLYN is 65-51 ATS (+8.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 25-16 ATS (+7.4 Units) in road games this season.
BROOKLYN is 28-14 ATS (+12.6 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 31-16 ATS (+13.4 Units) in road games in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 32-16 ATS (+14.4 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
BROOKLYN is 51-34 ATS (+13.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 24-10 ATS (+13.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 34-22 ATS (+9.8 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 37-22 ATS (+12.8 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
BROOKLYN is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 13-24 ATS (-13.4 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) after a win by 10 points or more this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 16-27 ATS (-13.7 Units) after scoring 115 points or more this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
BROOKLYN is 6-5 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 8-4 straight up against BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
6 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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ORLANDO (42 - 40) at TORONTO (58 - 24) - 4/13/2019, 5:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ORLANDO is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in road games when playing with 2 days rest over the last 3 seasons.
TORONTO is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in home games in April games over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 44-35 ATS (+5.5 Units) in all games this season.
ORLANDO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) on Saturday games this season.
ORLANDO is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) against Atlantic division opponents this season.
ORLANDO is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) after scoring 115 points or more this season.
ORLANDO is 22-13 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
ORLANDO is 36-27 ATS (+6.3 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
ORLANDO is 36-26 ATS (+7.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
ORLANDO is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
TORONTO is 206-261 ATS (-81.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
Head-to-Head Series History
ORLANDO is 6-5 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 7-4 straight up against ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
7 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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LA CLIPPERS (48 - 34) at GOLDEN STATE (57 - 25) - 4/13/2019, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CLIPPERS are 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in April games over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 229-290 ATS (-90.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 136-100 ATS (+26.0 Units) in April games since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 68-44 ATS (+19.6 Units) in all playoff games since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 27-10 ATS (+16.0 Units) in the first round of the playoffs since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) in home games after allowing 130 points or more since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 86-58 ATS (+22.2 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
LA CLIPPERS are 45-36 ATS (+5.4 Units) in all games this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 47-33 ATS (+10.7 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 23-9 ATS (+13.1 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 60-44 ATS (+11.6 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
LA CLIPPERS are 29-17 ATS (+10.3 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 35-46 ATS (-15.6 Units) in all games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 31-43 ATS (-16.3 Units) as a favorite this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 37-53 ATS (-21.3 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 24-36 ATS (-15.6 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 45-59 ATS (-19.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
GOLDEN STATE is 27-41 ATS (-18.1 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 7-5 against the spread versus LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 10-2 straight up against LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
9 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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SAN ANTONIO (48 - 34) at DENVER (54 - 28) - 4/13/2019, 10:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN ANTONIO is 15-27 ATS (-14.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 25-16 ATS (+7.4 Units) in home games this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 1090-956 ATS (+38.4 Units) in all games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 26-8 ATS (+17.2 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 33-24 ATS (+6.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
DENVER is 12-24 ATS (-14.4 Units) against Southwest division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 7-4 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 7-4 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NBA
Saturday, April 13
Trend Report
Brooklyn Nets
Brooklyn is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games
Brooklyn is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Brooklyn's last 6 games
Brooklyn is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Brooklyn is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Brooklyn's last 7 games on the road
Brooklyn is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
Brooklyn is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Brooklyn's last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
Brooklyn is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Brooklyn's last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Philadelphia 76ers
Philadelphia is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Philadelphia is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games
Philadelphia is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Philadelphia is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games at home
Philadelphia is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Brooklyn
Philadelphia is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Brooklyn
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing Brooklyn
Philadelphia is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Brooklyn
Philadelphia is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Brooklyn
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing at home against Brooklyn
Orlando Magic
Orlando is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Orlando is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Orlando's last 5 games
Orlando is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Orlando is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Orlando's last 5 games on the road
Orlando is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Toronto
Orlando is 5-20 SU in its last 25 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Orlando's last 7 games when playing Toronto
Orlando is 2-10 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Toronto
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Orlando's last 5 games when playing on the road against Toronto
Toronto Raptors
Toronto is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Toronto is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Toronto is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 6 games at home
Toronto is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Orlando
Toronto is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games when playing Orlando
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto's last 7 games when playing Orlando
Toronto is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Orlando
Toronto is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Orlando
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing at home against Orlando
Los Angeles Clippers
LA Clippers is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
LA Clippers is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of LA Clippers's last 9 games
LA Clippers is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of LA Clippers's last 23 games on the road
LA Clippers is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Golden State
LA Clippers is 2-16 SU in its last 18 games when playing Golden State
The total has gone OVER in 9 of LA Clippers's last 11 games when playing Golden State
LA Clippers is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Golden State
LA Clippers is 1-11 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Golden State
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Clippers's last 6 games when playing on the road against Golden State
Golden State Warriors
Golden State is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Golden State's last 21 games
Golden State is 8-16-1 ATS in its last 25 games at home
Golden State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Golden State's last 11 games at home
Golden State is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing LA Clippers
Golden State is 16-2 SU in its last 18 games when playing LA Clippers
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Golden State's last 11 games when playing LA Clippers
Golden State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against LA Clippers
Golden State is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against LA Clippers
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Golden State's last 6 games when playing at home against LA Clippers
San Antonio Spurs
San Antonio is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
San Antonio is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Antonio's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of San Antonio's last 9 games on the road
San Antonio is 17-5 SU in its last 22 games when playing Denver
San Antonio is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Antonio's last 5 games when playing Denver
San Antonio is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 games when playing on the road against Denver
San Antonio is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Denver
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Antonio's last 6 games when playing on the road against Denver
Denver Nuggets
The total has gone UNDER in 19 of Denver's last 25 games
Denver is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Denver is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Denver's last 7 games at home
Denver is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing San Antonio
Denver is 5-17 SU in its last 22 games when playing San Antonio
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games when playing San Antonio
Denver is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 games when playing at home against San Antonio
Denver is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against San Antonio
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games when playing at home against San Antonio
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