Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Monday 4/8/19
Virginia won its last three games by total of 10 points, using near-miraculous finishes to win last two games. Cavaliers played two subs a total of 19:00 Saturday; Auburn shot 50% inside arc, but only 9-31 on arc against them. Only Cavalier senior who plays is their 7th man. Virginia is 17-0 outside ACC this year. Texas Tech is 16-1 outside the Big X, with only loss by 11 to Duke on neutral floor. Four of Red Raiders’ five NCAA tourney wins were by 10+ points. Tech starts three seniors; they held Michigan State to 31.9% from floor Saturday.
— Favorites won/covered five of last eight national title games.
— Since 2000, #1-seeds are 8-1 in final vs non-#1-seeds (7-2 vs spread).
— #1-seed won last four national titles; since 1990, #3-seeds are 3-5 in title games, 0-2 vs #1-seeds.
— Last time a Big 12 school won national title was Kansas in 2008.
Preview: Texas Tech vs. Virginia
Two of the best defensive teams in the country vie for their first national championship when Texas Tech meets Virginia in the NCAA Tournament title game Monday night at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis. Virginia has limited opponents to a national-best 55.5 points per game and 38.4 percent shooting while the Red Raiders advanced to the final by holding Michigan State to 31.9 percent from the field in Saturday’s 61-51 victory.
The Cavaliers, who became the first No. 1 seed in history to lose to a 16th seed in last season’s tournament, needed three free throws from junior guard Kyle Guy with less than one second left to beat Auburn 63-62 in the semifinals. “To think this time last year we were starting our spring workouts, and to still be playing at this point in the season. … with one other team in the whole country on the stage that you dreamed about since you were a little kid, it’s an unreal feeling,” Virginia junior guard Ty Jerome told reporters. “We’re going to do everything we can to finish the job.” Texas Tech lost five of its top six scorers from last season’s Elite Eight team, but leaned on its stifling defense (58.8 points, 36.8 percent shooting against) along with the emergence of Big 12 Player of the Year Jarrett Culver (18.6 points) and third-year coach Chris Beard molded the team into one capable of something special. “(Beard) said (last summer), we have enough in this gym, in this locker room right here to play on the final Monday night,” Red Raiders senior guard Matt Mooney told reporters after matching his season high with 22 points Saturday. “. … He might be psychic because here we are on the final Monday night. We just believed him and believed in each other all year long.”
TV: 9:20 p.m. ET, CBS
ABOUT TEXAS TECH (31-6): Mooney, who averages 11.3 points overall, drained 4-of-8 from 3-point range Saturday while Culver (10 points, 3-of-12 shooting) struggled, with Beard telling reporters: “Matt had the courage to step up and take those shots. He’s making plays on both ends. … He’s a special player.” Sophomore guard Davide Moretti (11.4 points) saw his streak of 11 straight double-figure games end with five in the semifinal, but senior guard Brandone Francis scored nine off the bench against Michigan State. Senior forward Tariq Owens (8.8 points, team-high 2.5 blocks) suffered an ankle injury in the second half Saturday, but was able to return to the floor.
ABOUT VIRGINIA (34-3): Guy struggled shooting in the first three games of the tournament (8-for-38 overall, 3-for-26 from 3-point range), but has warmed up the last two (13-for-30, 7-for-18) while averaging 20 points. Guy leads the team overall (15.2) while sophomore swingman De’Andre Hunter (14.9), who missed last year’s tournament with an injury, scored 14 on 7-of-11 shooting from the field in Saturday’s victory. Jerome (13.5 points, team-high 5.4 assists) scored 24 in the South Region final against Purdue and led the way with 21 points to go along with nine boards and six assists in the semifinals, draining four 3-pointers for the second straight game.
TIP-INS
1. Virginia junior F Mamadi Diakite is averaging 10.8 points in the NCAA Tournament - 3.4 above his season mark - and blocked five shots Saturday.
2. Texas Tech senior C Norense Odiase, who has started all 36 games, is averaging 7.3 rebounds (5.3 overall) in the last four contests after hauling in nine Saturday.
3. The Cavaliers and Red Raiders have never met ... The over-under betting total of 117.5, already down from the opening line of 119, marks the lowest number since Florida-UCLA (128) in 2006.
PREDICTION: Virginia 56, Texas Tech 53
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Early bettors hammer Under odds for Texas Tech-Virginia title clash
Patrick Everson
A week into April, March Madness heads toward its conclusion with Monday night’s championship game. We check in on the opening odds and early action for the NCAA Tournament final, with insights from Eric Osterman, manager at The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas, and Matt Chaprales, head of content for PointsBet USA in New Jersey.
No. 3 Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. No. 1 Virginia Cavaliers – Open: -1; Move: -1.5; Move: -1
Virginia was the lone No. 1 seed to reach the Final Four and stayed on its feet for one last dance at the Big Dance – barely. The Cavaliers (34-3 SU, 25-12 ATS) had a 10-point lead with five minutes left against No. 5 seed Auburn, blew all that and more, but got a fortuitous noncall of a double dribble, followed by a final-second foul call on a missed 3-pointer.
Kyle Guy then made all three free throws, giving the Cavs a 63-62 victory as 6-point favorites Saturday.
Texas Tech has been the best bet of the NCAA Tourney, going 5-0 SU and ATS heading into Monday’s 9:20 p.m. ET championship clash. The Red Raiders (31-6 SU, 20-16-1 ATS) also let a double-digit advantage slip away in the semifinals, turning a 48-35 lead with 9:23 remaining into just a 52-51 edge with 2:35 left against No. 2 seed Michigan State.
However, Texas Tech closed with a 9-0 run to claim a 61-51 victory as a 1.5-point underdog Saturday, moving to 14-1 SU and 13-2 ATS in its last 15 games.
While there was a little jockeying with the opening pointspread, what proved more intriguing was the total. The SuperBook opened at 120, quickly went to 119.5 and ultimately dipped to 118.5 before bettors slowed down their fire. Still, The SuperBook made two trips to 118 before going back to 118.5 late Saturday night.
“It was a situation where we posted it before anyone else,” Osterman said. “The third bet we took was on the Under, and then a couple more decent-sized bets came in on the Under. And then more places started posting lower totals, so we had to go down too. It was a combination of money and the market. It looks like it’s calmed down a little bit since we went to 118.5.”
As for the spread, Cavaliers backers definitely liked the opener of -1.
“The first bet we took was a $5,000 limit bet on Virginia -1,” Osterman said. “We didn’t move off that, but then we went to -1.5 because it looked like the market was gonna stay there. Then the market came back down, and we took a Texas Tech moneyline bet from one of our house players. So we decided to go back to 1.”
PointsBet opened the total at 118.5 and also drew some early Under cash, dropping to 117.5 by late Saturday night.
“The first bets were all on the under,” Chaprales said.
On the spread, Virginia spent the late night bouncing between the opener of -1.5 and -1 at PointsBet.
“We’re anticipating another rock fight,” Chaprales said before describing out-of-the-gate pointspread action. “The line actually moved to 1 for about 90 seconds. Some immediate Virginia resistance at -1 pushed it back to -1.5. Then more Tech money, back to 1. These numbers are so tight, I could see a ping-pong scenario.”
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THREE REASONS WHY TEXAS TECH COVERS
NO. 1 DEFENSE!
Well, obviously, as Texas Tech and Virginia boast two of the best defenses in the country but there are a couple of things that the Red Raiders do particularily well that will frustrate the Cavaliers.
The first is 3-point defense. The Red Raiders rank 11th in the nation in allowing opponents to shoot just 29.3 percent from behind the arc on the season and have allowed opponents to hit on just 31-of-117 attempts (26.5 percent) so far in the tournament. Virginia relies on the 3-ball for 35.4 percent of its total offense and that’s going to dry up on Monday night.
The second is that the Red Raiders just don’t allow teams to move the ball around. Texas Tech is one of the best teams in the nation at limiting team assists, allowing just 9.6 per game, the fourth-fewest in the nation. Heading into the Final Four, Michigan State was third in the nation with 18.7 assists per game and then managed just six against the Red Raiders. Virginia has been scoring in the tournament with solid ball movement and is averaging 14.3 assists per game in its last three.
This is going to be a defensive slugfest with a total that has already ticked down to 118 but the Red Raiders have the defensive edge in a couple of key categories which should help them to their first national title in school history.
NO. 2 JARRETT CULVER
Texas Tech needs a better overall performance from Jarrett Culver on Monday. The future NBA lottery prospect was clutch late in the game on Saturday, hitting a key 3-pointer 58 seconds remaining, but he finished the game with just 10 points on 3-of-12 shooting while also adding five boards and five assists. The Big 12 Player of the Year came into the tournament hot, however, averaging 21.5 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 4.5 assists in four NCAA Tournament games prior to Minneapolis.
Virginia only lost three times all season and in two of those, it was because Zion Williamson dominated from inside the arc, hitting on 15-of-22 two-point attempts. Culver is not Williamson but he is at his best when he’s driving to the basket and not settling for outside shots. His ability to get to the rim should be a key factor that Texas Tech will look to exploit against the Cavaliers. Culver is by far the Red Raiders’ best player and expect him to bounce back with a big performance on Monday night.
NO. 3 LUCK RUNS OUT
Alright, someone has to say it: Virginia is downright lucky to be playing for the national championship on Monday night. That last sequence on Saturday was just silly, first with Ty Jerome getting away with a double-dribble before getting fouled and then the Cavaliers getting bailed out by Auburn’s Samir Doughty as he fouled Kyle Guy on his 3-point attempt with less than a second remaining (and yes, it was a foul). And don’t forget about how Virginia got to Minneapolis, needing a miraculous buzzer-beater from Mamadi Diakite to force overtime against Purdue in the Elite Eight.
Virginia’s luck runs out on Monday. Texas Tech is a runaway train at the moment that is destroying anything and everything in its path. The Red Raiders are 5-0 against the spread so far in the tournament and will get to 6-0 when they cover — and likely win outright — in the National Championship game on Monday night.
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THREE REASONS WHY VIRGINIA COVERS
NO. 1 VIRGINIA KNOWS HOW TO WIN CLOSE GAMES
You have to be good to be lucky, as any sports bettor knows. A cynic might look at Virginia's last couple of results and see luck, but it takes more more than luck to win close games against quality teams like Purdue and Aubun.
Virginia has proved that when the chips are down they can win close battles. They have the tenacity to fight back from behind as they did against Purdue after trailing 25-16, and they had the mettle to close out a tight finish against an Auburn team that was out for blood in the final five minutes.
Most people think this championship game is going to be close and if it is, Virginia has the resiliency to win. With a spread this small, I'm more than comfortable taking them to cover as well.
NO. 2 DISIPLINE
Texas Tech aren't turnover machines by any stretch of the imagination, but they can't compare to the discipline of Virginia on either side of the ball. Virginia simply refuses to beat itself.
The Cavaliers commit just 14.3 fouls per game, the sixth fewest in the country, while Texas Tech sits near the middle of the pack with 17.3 which ranks 142nd.
UVA also rarely turns the ball over, ranking 11th in the nation in turnovers per possession, while TTU ranks 138nd. In a game that should be very close, a foul here and a turnover there will make all the difference.
NO. 3 REBOUNDING
During the tournament Texas Tech has played exceptionally well in almost every aspect of the game, except on the boards. The Raiders' rebounding rate of 50.9 percent ranks a modest 125th in the country and over their last three games that number has plummeted to 45.5 percent. Tech's second-leading rebounder Tariq Owens had what looked to be a nasty ankle injury against Michigan State but returned to the floor. It looks like nothing is going to keep Owens out of the lineup in the championship game, but ankle injuries are difficult to play on and could affect his rebounding ability.
Virginia ranks 18th in the country in rebounding rate at 53.9 percent, and should be able to limit TTU's chances on the offensive end.
Rebounding, turnovers, and clutch play, these are the things that win championships and Virginia's got the edge which should help them win and cover in Minneapolis.
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NCAAB
Long Sheet
Monday, April 8
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TEXAS TECH (31 - 6) vs. VIRGINIA (34 - 3) - 4/8/2019, 9:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TEXAS TECH is 141-185 ATS (-62.5 Units) as an underdog since 1997.
TEXAS TECH is 39-60 ATS (-27.0 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game since 1997.
VIRGINIA is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) in all games this season.
VIRGINIA is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
VIRGINIA is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) as a favorite this season.
VIRGINIA is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
VIRGINIA is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
VIRGINIA is 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
TEXAS TECH is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing with one or less days rest this season.
TEXAS TECH is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in road games after allowing 60 points or less this season.
TEXAS TECH is 17-9 ATS (+7.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
TEXAS TECH is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
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