Saturday 4/6/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for Saturday’s NCAAB, NHL & NBA games.
Spartan
3*
Auburn +5.5
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Ben Burns
3*
Virginia -5.5
Im playing on VIRGINIA. With wins over Kansas, UNC and Kentucky, Auburn has certainly taken down some giants, winning a lot of fans in the process. The Tigers haven't faced a team like this one though and I absolutely expect their magical run to come to an end. Auburn, of course, wants to keep going. However, the Tigers have already achieved more than they could have dreamed. The tournament is a success for them, no matter what happens here. Virginia, on the other hand, will not be at all satisfied if it doesnt win this game. While one could argue that puts more pressure on the Cavs, in my opinion, its going to make them that much more focused. There's no letdown for them. This is a team on a mission, out to completely wipe last year's first round debacle from the record books. The Cavs allow just 55 ppg. Before going to OT vs. Purdue, they'd held all three tournament opponents to 56 or fewer points. Expect their dominant defense to be the difference, the Cavs punching their ticket to the Finals while providing us the cover along the way.
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TONY FINN FINAL-4 VIRGINIA vs AUBURN
Game: (803) Auburn at (804) Virginia
Date/Time: Apr 6 2019 6:09 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Greek
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Virginia -5.5 (+102)
PLAY: Virginia -5.5 (good to -7)
4% game rating
Virginia
Offensive rank (BPI): 2nd
Defensive rank (BPI): 2nd
Auburn
Offensive rank (BPI): 8th
Defensive rank (BPI): 35th
VIRGINIA -5.5 points
TONY FINN FINAL-4 MICH STATE vs TEXAS TECH
Game: (801) Texas Tech at (802) Michigan State
Date/Time: Apr 6 2019 8:49 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Total Under 133.0 (-108)
PLAY: Under the Total of 133 (good to 130)
5% game rating
(801) Texas Tech at (802) Michigan State
Michigan State
Offensive rank (BPI): 6th
Defensive rank (BPI): 8th
Texas Tech
Offensive rank (BPI): 33rd
Defensive rank (BPI): 1st
UNDER the TOTAL of 133
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Stephen Nover
3*
Virginia -5
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Dave Essler
3*
Texas Tech +3
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Kenny White
UNDER 132.5 TEXAS TECH VS MICHIGAN ST. | 4/06 | 8:49 PM EDT
Both teams are top 10 defensively with Michigan State ranking No. 9 and oh yeah Texas Tech No. 1. On offense Michigan State is No. 5 however Texas Tech ranks No. 28. The pace will be slow as both teams work the ball on offense looking for a good shot which will be hard to find against these two defenses. Texas Tech's pace of play is No. 267 at 18.3 seconds a possession on average. The only two defenses they face this year close to Michigan State's was Michigan (63 points), Kansas State (45 and 63 points) and Duke (58 points). The average for those four games was 57 but the median is 60.5. If Michigan State wins by 2 1/2 that means the final score will be 63-60.5 for a total of 123 1/2.
27-17-1 IN LAST 45 CBB PICKS | +777
MICHIGAN ST. -2.5
TEXAS TECH VS MICHIGAN ST. | 4/06 | 8:49 PM EDT
Cassius Winston! Winston is the best player on the floor and proved that by beating Duke. Oh yeah they beat Michigan three times this year. Winston makes everyone around him better. He has all of the skills needed to play in the NBA and the one biggest skill no one can teach and that is instincts. He knows when to score and when to set up the right teammate for an easy score. Michigan State offense ranks fifth and the defense ranks ninth. Texas Tech's offense is No. 28 but the defense is No. 1. So we found the difference in the two teams and that is offense. If Tre Jones couldn't slow down Winston I don't see Texas Tech doing it. Michigan State by 6.
27-17-1 IN LAST 45 CBB PICKS | +777
3-1 IN LAST 4 MICHST ATS PICKS | +180
UNDER 131 AUBURN VS VIRGINIA | 4/06 | 6:09 PM EDT
Virginia will control the pace, the slower more talented teams always control the pace. The Cavaliers are playing at an all-time slow pace with 53, 55 and 56 possessions their past three games. Games against teams that like to run have averaged about 60 possesions. The three latest games versus teams that tried to slow the pace against Auburn was Kentucky (60-60), Florida (65-62) and Alabama (66-60). I made this total 125.
27-17-1 IN LAST 45 CBB PICKS | +777
2-1 IN LAST 3 UVA O/U PICKS | +90
VIRGINIA -5.5
AUBURN VS VIRGINIA | 4/06 | 6:09 PM EDT
The Virginia offense is ranked No. 2 and its defense No. 5. Auburn's offense ranks No. 6 but its defense ranks No. 38 and now it is without its third-best player Chuma Okeke. Okeke missed the last game against Kentucky however I felt his absence was not as big against a conference rival that had beaten them twice already this year. Kentucky coach Calipari said before the game that the way to beat Auburn was to slow them down, well Virginia plays the slowest basketball in the country. The Wahoo's last three game's pace has been 53, 55 and 56. This slow pace really bothers teams that like to run and without Okeke I have Virginia winning by 8.
27-17-1 IN LAST 45 CBB PICKS | +777
2-1 IN LAST 3 UVA ATS PICKS | +90
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Tim Wilkinson
CBB
Michigan State -2.5
Virginia -5.5
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Greg shaker
2*
Virginia / auburn over 130.5
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Stephen Oh
BALTIMORE +180
N.Y. YANKEES @ BALTIMORE | 4/06 | 7:05 PM EDT
Locking this one in now because Baltimore got off to a 4-3 start on the season that few saw coming, and has returned big value on the money line to backers thus far. The Orioles took two of three in the opening series against the Yankees this year and my simulations have them winning straight-up on Saturday nearly 40 percent of the time, making them a solid bargain on the money line with Dylan Bundy on the hill.
5-1 IN LAST 6 MLB ML PICKS | +303
26-16 IN LAST 42 NYY ML PICKS | +1198
8-3 IN LAST 11 BAL ML PICKS | +431
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Chris David
Premier League - Leicester City -140 (start 10:00am)
Also (over 1.5 goals Leicester City -120)
Bundesliga League (Germany) - Borussia Dortmund/Bayern Munich Over 3.5 (+115) (start 12:30pm)
Also both teams to score (yes -180)
MLS (USA) - Los Angeles FC/D.C.United Over 2.5 (-185) (start 3:00pm)
Also both teams to score (yes -200)
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baseball33
Arizona Diamondbacks - Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox -1
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Goodfella
3*
VIRGINIA -5 (bought half point)
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Ken Thomson
3*
Michigan St. -140
3*
Auburn +6
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Stephen Nover
3*
Virginia -5
Added
3*
Nashville -1.5(+115)
2*
Philadelphia / Minnesota over 8
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Big Al
Virginia
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Cal Sports
3* Texas Tech UNDER
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Wise Guy Insider
MLB 1:35 pm Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates -120 for 1 units
ACTION
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NFAC
$1000 Virginia -5.5
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Brandon Watson (CBB Final 4)
Virginia
Texas Tech
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Rockdeman Sports
MLB
Phillies
Red Sox/Diamondbacks Over 8.5
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goodfella
2*
texas tech +3 (-120)
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Master Sports
MLB
3* #974 Houston -135 (Miley)
Pointwise phone service
2 Auburn
6 Mich State
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MidAmerican Sports (CBB Final 4)
Texas Tech/Michigan State Over
Virginia
Virginia/Auburn Under (1st half)
Virginia/Auburn Under (game)
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MidAmerican Sports (Baseball)
Mets
Reds
Cardinals (runline)
Dodgers/Rockies Over
Mariners (Moneyline & runline)
Angels (runline)
Athletics
Diamondbacks/Red Sox Over
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Stats Analytics Sports (MLB 29-18 ytd 62% overall +4.94 units)
MLB
2* Angels/Rangers Under 8.5
1* Cardinals/Padres Over 7.5
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Gavazzi
4% play on VIRG
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JR ODONNELL
3*
Philadelphia / Chicago over 226.5
3*
Michigan St. -2
3*
Arizona / Boston over 8.5
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Dwayne Bryant
3% Milwaukee Bucks +6.5
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Oskeim
5% Virginia -5.5
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WORLD WORST PICKER
BOTH PEABODY SUPER PLAYS
Auburn & Texas Tech
Play on BOTH OPPOSITES
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WORLD WORST PICKER
1ST PEABODY SUPER PLAY THIS YEAR Seattle Mariners
Regular Plays: Washington Nationals Cincinnati Reds San Diego Padres
Play on ALL the OPPOSITES
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Stephen Oh
L.A. DODGERS -139
L.A. DODGERS @ COLORADO | 4/06 | 8:10 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 9:01 PM
Walker Buehler was shaky in his first start of the year, but my simulations point to him getting back closer to his 2018 form, a season where he had a 2.62 ERA and a WHIP of 0.96. The Dodgers are rolling early this season and my projections have them winning straight-up close to 70 percent of the time on Saturday.
5-1 IN LAST 6 MLB ML PICKS | +303
32-15 IN LAST 47 COL ML PICKS | +1938
20-13 IN LAST 33 LAD ML PICKS | +334
PITTSBURGH -120
CINCINNATI @ PITTSBURGH | 4/06 | 1:35 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 8:56 PM
Pittsburgh's pitching has been tremendous as the Pirates enter Saturday at or near the top of the league in most key statistical categories. The Reds, meanwhile, are 30th in the league in batting average and runs scored. They'll struggle to score in this one. My simulations are calling for a low-scoring game that Pittsburgh wins in 65 percent of simulations.
5-1 IN LAST 6 MLB ML PICKS | +303
4-2 IN LAST 6 CIN ML PICKS | +271
BALTIMORE +180
N.Y. YANKEES @ BALTIMORE | 4/06 | 7:05 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 1:00 PM
Locking this one in now because Baltimore got off to a 4-3 start on the season that few saw coming, and has returned big value on the money line to backers thus far. The Orioles took two of three in the opening series against the Yankees this year and my simulations have them winning straight-up on Saturday nearly 40 percent of the time, making them a solid bargain on the money line with Dylan Bundy on the hill.
5-1 IN LAST 6 MLB ML PICKS | +303
26-16 IN LAST 42 NYY ML PICKS | +1198
8-3 IN LAST 11 BAL ML PICKS | +431
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The Spot Player MLB
2* Royals +114
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Dirty Bear Sports from Cappertek
MLB: Was/Nym F5 under 3.5 -110 - 3 units (MLB current season: 7-4 64% +2.64units)
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Marco/Sports Unlimited CBB
Virginia O131.5 3%
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Alan Boston hoops
Virginia
Tx Tech
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Primetime Sports Picks For 04/06/19
4 Unit --> Chicago Cubs (Hamels)/Milwaukee (Burnes) OVER 8
3 Unit --> N.Y. Yankees (Happ)/Baltimore (Bundy) OVER 8.5
3 Unit --> Michigan St. -2.5 over Texas Tech (NCAAB)
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TONY FINN SAT NL PRIVATE PLAY (10-1)
Game: (959) Miami Marlins at (960) Atlanta Braves
Date/Time: Apr 6 2019 7:20 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Under 8.5 (+103)
View Analysis
PLAY: Under the Total of 8.5 (good to 8)
4% game rating
LIST PITCHERS: Alcantara and Wright
Miami at Atlanta tonight is nearly pitcher perfect for a baseball game. 5-10 mph winds blowing in from left-center and 70 degree temps at first pitch. And pitcher friendly Andy Fletcher calling balls and strikes.
Marlins RH Sandy Alcantara (1-0, 0.00 ERA) vs. Braves RH Kyle Wright (0-1, 6.23)
The following statement is not directed at Miami Marlins fans because it won't sink in for most, albeit the savvy, but the Fish are not going to win a lot of games this year and are a team that I and others have pinpointed to lose 100-plus.
The rebuild that the Marlins are going through does offer one investment quality asset and that is the team's pitching staff, young, and talented. Alcantara is one of those arms in Miami that should be closely watched and spot played as a significant dog and in totals, be it over or under, depending on the matchup.
The Braves send Wright to the hill coming off a loss against a good Phillies lineup and in Philly.
The Miami pitchers have issued just 20 walks through eight games. The staff has been directed to challenge hitters regardless of count. There will be no wasting an 0-2 pitch.
The Fish throw Sandy Alcantara to the mound for his second start. The Miami youngster was solid in his first. He tossed a gem against the Rockies with 8.0 shutout innings and six strikeouts. He allowed just four hits and didn’t walk anyone, which is a 180 from his primary struggle a seasons ago, albeit only 34 innings.
Watching Alcantara weave his magic was not just fun it was encouraging... for a fan of baseball.. regardless of team. Alcantara mixed his pitches like a veteran. He has four solid pitches but his trio he used in the season opener was his fastball, curveball, and slider 29, 24, and 19 times respectively. He saved his sinker for the right moments and it was, by all measure, equal to the effectiveness of his slider. Alcantara threw his sinker 13 times and also offered six changeups. His slider was charted as the effective pitch with four swinging strikes and four called strikes on his 19 offerings. The Rockies (a very talented offense) rarely made hard contact with Alcantara's offerings. In Alcantara's 8 innings the average exit velocity of the Roks bats, when they made fair play contact, was 77 MPH.
Kyle Wright threw just 4.2 innings and allowing just two hits. He walked five in the outing. But note, the weather in Philly for Wright's start was cool and windy and it is the reason the youngster threw over 70 percent of his pitches via the fastball. And while most know very little about Wright he is not just a warm body filling a slot in the rotation due to injuries. He is a highly regarded prospect... and the conditions in Philly for his opener will be contrary to tonight's in Atlanta. Expect him to mix his bag of tricks and have enough stamina to push 6-plus innings to his boxscore line... which means he will have been successful.
Andy Fletcher is scheduled to be behind the plate tonight at SunTrust Park. Fletcher has been a middling home plate ump in his career. This if you don't venture beyond the surface numbers of his balls and strikes. The truth is that his strike zone is one of the larger in the league, especially when it comes to pitchers that have electric fastballs. And tonight's situation puts Fletcher in the driver’s seat to call a quick contest with two starters attacking the K-zone.
Fletcher is 1-0 this season-- to the home team -- and has 21 strike outs to just 5 walks in his only start behind home plate. That game was the Colorado Rockies at the Tampa Bay Ray. The trio of starters in the game were Bettis (5.2 innings) for the Roks and Stanek/Yarbrough (combined for 5.1 innings) for the Rays. The three pitched a total of 11 innings and registered 11 strikeouts. When you have an umpire like Fletcher, who also has one of the per game time logs (meaning quick games by the hours and minute measure) you are set up for success when expecting a low scoring and quickly played game.
TOTAL UNDER 8.5 runs
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