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Free NCAAB, NHL & NBA Premium Service Plays For Tuesday 4/2/19

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(@shazman)
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Tuesday 4/2/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NCAAB, NHL & NBA games.

 
Posted : April 2, 2019 9:17 am
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Aj Hoffman

3* Lipscomb -1.5
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Dave Essler

3*
Sacramento +5
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Spartan

2*Rabid Dog Release
Kansas City +125
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Posted : April 2, 2019 9:47 am
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Fezzik

3*GOW
Minnesota -125
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Stephen Nover

3*GOM
Golden State -8

2*
Lipscomb +1
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TONY FINN's NIT FINAL FOUR GAME #1

Game: (709) Wichita State at (710) Lipscomb
Date/Time: Apr 2 2019 7:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Wichita State 1.0 (-110)

View Analysis

FINN's NIT FINAL FOUR GAME #1
PLAY: Wichita State +1 point (good to -1)
4% game rating
(709) Wichita State at (710) Lipscomb

Game night analysis published shortly. Check back to WagerTalk or open your mail for a complete detailed write-up on this Tuesday night MSG event.

WICHITA STATE +1
FINN's NIT FINAL FOUR GAME #2
Game: (711) Texas at (712) TCU
Date/Time: Apr 2 2019 9:30 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Over 137.5 (-106)

View Analysis

FINN's NITE FINAL FOUR GAME #2
PLAY OVER the TOTAL of 137.5 (good to 140)
4% game rating
(711) Texas at (712) TCU
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Posted : April 2, 2019 9:49 am
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TONY FINN EARLY PITCH AL DOMINATOR (6-1)

Game: (963) Baltimore Orioles at (964) Toronto Blue Jays
Date/Time: Apr 2 2019 7:07 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Greek
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Under 9.0 (-122)

View Analysis

PLAY: Under the Total of 9 runs (good to 8.5)
4% game rating
LIST PITCHERS: Cashner and Stroman

(963) Baltimore Orioles at (964) Toronto Blue Jays

It is important to note that while the belief should be that the Jays starting rotation is what will carry them on most nights this summer they shouldn't be counted on to perform to the level they did in the season opening series this past weekend against the Detroit Tigers.

Jays' starting pitchers did not give up a run across four games. That ended on Monday when the Baltimore Orioles scored five runs on Toronto starter Sean Reid-Foley resulting in a 6-5 victory.

Toronto's first four starters combined to allow 11 hits over 24 scoreless innings in Detroit. And while the Orioles have proved to be more capable offensively this year than Detroit don't count on that being the case across 162 games.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Orioles RH Andrew Cashner (0-1, 13.50 ERA) vs. Blue Jays RH Marcus Stroman (0-0, 0.00)

Cashner has lost six consecutive starts dating back to last season. The right-hander replaced expected Baltimore No.1 Alex Cobb for the Orioles Opening Day start. Cashner surrendered six runs on six hits and four walks over four innings at hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium and against arguably the most formitable lineup in all of baseball.

And while Cashner failed to earn official wins in any of his four starts against the Blue Jays in 2018 (0-2) his underlying peripherals were in line with his 3.28 ERA.

Toronto right-hander Stroman took a no-hitter into the seventh inning in his first start, an Opening Day turn, against a less than average Detroit Tigers offense. Stroman allowed four walks and a pair of singles while striking out seven over as many innings. Stroman has always had injury issues in his career, albeit nothing ground-swelling and most of his starts have been skipped due to blisters. Last season Stroman experienced blisters right out of the box and a throwing shoulder ailment that resulted in the Jays' righty experiencing the worst statistical season in his career.

Stroman is as blue-collar with a chip on his shoulder pitcher in a day and age when starters more resemble Diva's with an attitude. The talented right-hander has over-the-top plus-stuff. His 2018 numbers, surface stats, can be shelfed... and ignored. Stroman recorded a 5.54 ERA in just over 100 innings of work last year. A campaign in which the young starter pitched through a right shoulder injury.

The Jays starter doesn't have the prettiest delivery. He doesn't miss an large number of bats that would enable him to have "Elite" status among starters. Stroman doesn't miss a high percentage of bats, owning a league average strike out rate (19%). However, the combination of opposing lineup and home plate umpire make is GB-to-FB ration extremely attractive... and backable. Stroman ground balls (60%) mitigate his hard contact ration and his batted ball luck, or lack thereof.

Stroman owned a no-hitter through six innings in his first start of the season -- and a healthy Stroman against a below average offensive lineup with an umpire that has a large strike zone is a recipe for Stro-Success.

Against playoff quality Baltimore lineups, batting orders much more skilled and power laden than the 2019 version of the O's, Stroman is 4-4 with a 3.55 ERA in 11 trips to the mound vs the O's.

Cashner allowed six runs on six hits along with four walks while striking out three in four innings of Opening Day work. However, Cashner was taking hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium mound in an attempt to contain the best offense, in the Yanks.

Cashner's underlying peripherals are much better than his surface stats (5.29 ERA over 153 innings a year ago). Cashner's adjusted ERA, his FIP, is nearly two runs lower than his ERA.

Drumroll please for the cream on the strudel. The scheduled home plate umpire, veteran Bill Miller, has the largest strikezone in major league baseball. He calls more strikes outside of the QuesTec computerized zone grading system for Major League Baseball umpires.

On average Miller has a strike out to walk ratio that is 20 percent higher than league norm. And there isn't an umpire in the game today that has a higher percentage of swings and misses when he is grading balls and strikes.

Under the Total of 9 runs

FINN LATE PITCH MLB PRIVATE PLAY 6-1
Game: (971) Los Angeles Angels at (972) Seattle Mariners
Date/Time: Apr 2 2019 10:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Seattle Mariners -106

View Analysis

PLAY: Seattle Mariners -106 (good to -140)
4% game rating
LIST PITCHERS: Cahill and Gonzales

The Seattle Mariners have the best record in baseball through the season opening first weekend. The M's are 6-1 heading into Tuesday night's contest against the 1-4 L.A. Angels.

I am currently outlining my first power rankings for the 2019 MLB season and for those of you interested, and visit the WagerTalk News, you will see that my comment for the Mariners will be "This Seattle team will be much better than most expected" I am not stepping out on a seven-game MLB limb and stating that the Mariners are playoff good. I am saying they are better than the team that most of the Vegas and Offshore sportsbooks projected to win in the neighborhood of 75 games.

The Seattle roster has a large number of newbies. And for most weekend warriors, casual baseball fans, that wager on their favorite team or the one they see on Wednesday's ESPN network, most can't name a current trio of players whom don a M's uni.

Seattle had 11 players listed on its Opening Day roster for the two-game series in Japan that weren’t with the club when the 2018 season ended. Only four of those players — Hernandez, Ichiro Suzuki, Edwin Encarnacion and Jay Bruce — have completed at least 10 years of major league service.

Gone is slugger Nelson Cruz elected free agency in October, along with seven others who logged time with the Mariners. Last Thanksgiving, November, saw the departure of longtime Mariners catcher Mike Zunino and outfielder Guillermo Heredia, who were traded to Tampa Bay. In addition shortly after the holiday weekend starter James Paxton packed his cleats and headed to the Bronx to be a part of the New York Yankees.

In December, second baseman Robinson Cano and closer Edwin Diaz traveled three time zones in a deal with the New York Mets. Jean Segura, righty Juan Nicasio and lefty James Pazos were swapped to the senior circuit and joined the upstart Philadelphia Phillies. And Seattle fan favorite Ben Gamel left for Milwaukee.

You don't have to include your toes but you do need both hands to count the number of 2018 Seattle Mariners personnel departed, across nine separate transactions, in preparation for this season, or better phrased the new look M's of 2019.

Seattle swept their season opening series against the A's in Japan. And followed that by winning three of four against the reigning World Series champion Boston Red Sox. The truth is, for those that are faithful followers of the game and the history of fast starts and slow finishes by MLB franchises, that the entire Red Sox-Mariners series more resembled bad college baseball.

The Mariners registered a sloppy 10-8 win Sunday to earn the third win in the four game series. Seattle scored 34 runs in four games as Red Sox starters posted a 13.20 ERA.

So the sportsbook MLB Prop after the first weekend of the 2019 campaign is; can Seattle compete with the Houston Astros in the AL West or is Boston not playing like the team that won a million and one games in 2018 and owned the Los Angeles Dodgers in last year's Fall Classic?

Yes - Seattle can win the AL West
No - Boston, their 1-3 mark, and their boxscores from the season opening weekend, is how the Red Sox will perform this season

To the game at hand. The Angels have two key injuries that make them the team that is most likely to perform to their 2018 mark than either the Mariners or the Red Sox. Seattle will finish second in the junior circuit west division and Boston will begin to pitch and defend than they did in this past weekend's series loss to Seattle.

Seattle's Kyle Seager is on the 60-day absentee list for the Mariners. He is the team's only injury that messes with one attempting to examine the replacement value of Seager for this M's club.

LA's Justin Upton and Shohei Ohtani are both fall into the 10-day injury container.

Without Upton there is zero protection in the lineup behind Mike Trout. And the combo of Kole Calhoun and Trout are not going to double-handedly score and drive in enough runs for the Angels to win games. The lineup is in absolute need of someone outside the talent box to pick this club up offensively.

Cahill allowed four runs in six innings while losing his first start to Oakland -- in Japan -- and while early his performance was a complete aberration from his historical trends. Four of the six hits that Cahill surrendered were for extra bases (two homers, one triple and one double). The 31-year-old didn't allow multiple homers in any of his 20 starts in 2018. The former A's right-hander allowed a mere eight long balls in 110 innings over 21 appearances as a part of the Oakland pitching staff.

In summary and in defense of Trout and company there are few teams have had worse injury luck these last couple of years than the Angels. It hasn't been mentioned, talked to or argued about; just how important Justin Upton is for this team's success, him hitting on the backside of Trout.

The Halos have scored six runs in their four losses and six runs in their lone victory. In their only win of the season Trout doubled in a pair of runs and scored in a 2-for-4 performance at the dish.

The Mariners most talented arm takes the mound tonight. Marco Gonzales won his first start in Japan against the A's. Gonzales allowed four runs (three earned) on seven hits (two homers) and one walk with four strikeouts over six innings. It wasn't a performance that will be water level of Marco for the 2019 season. In fact the southpaw was anything but pretty on the mound. Gonzales allowed Oakland to score in each of the first three innings while yielding a pair of long balls. He did what most good pitchers do and that was settle down and find his release point in the mid-innings and assisted his teammates in a win.

MG was not messing around in his first start. He attacked the strike zone in an aggressive nature and it was the first start of the season... where more mistakes are made than in any series of MLB events... every single season.

Gonzales threw just 69 to complete six frames. He threw 51 of his 60 pitches not just for strikes, but over the hill (plate) and through/between the woods (arm pits and knees) for strikes. And note he takes the mound with extra rest tonight, having tossed the opening day event on March 20th.

Gonzo is 8-4 in his career when pitching on more than five days' rest.

2018: 7-4
2017: 1-0

Furthermore Gonzales went 3-0 with a 3.34 ERA in six starts versus the Angels last season. He has not had much success against Trout (8-for-17, one homer) but that was when Trout had protection behind him. And Marco has owned Albert in his career... containing Pujols (2-for-17) in eight career starts.

The money-line in this Tuesday night contest offers as much as 30 cents of value. My power rankings and opening ML in this contest was Gonzalez -140. After Marco G opened at as high as -140 in this contest, which was my opening number, most of the Vegas and Offshore shops have reduced the outlay one has to support in backing the M's tonight.

SEATTLE MARINERS -106
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baseball33

Los Angeles Dodgers -1
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Posted : April 2, 2019 9:50 am
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Kyle Markus

CBB
Texas +2 (Best Bet)
Texas/TCU Over 137.5
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Kyle Markus

NBA
Warriors -8
Warriors/Nuggets Over 219
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Tim Wilkinson

CBB
Wichita State pk
Wichita State/Lipscomb Under 151

NBA
Thunder -12.5
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Posted : April 2, 2019 12:48 pm
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Rockdeman Sports (MLB)
So far 2-1 (+312.00) New Parlay System..
Rock said going to try it for 30 days & see where he ends up..
All parlays are for 100.00

Today Risk 100 Win 212
Red Sox
Mariners/Angels Over 8.5
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Greg shaker

3*
Seattle -105

1*
TCU / Texas Under 138.5
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Accu Picks

NBA
3* #579/580 LA Lakers/Oklahoma City OVER 224

 
Posted : April 2, 2019 12:50 pm
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Ken Thomson

1*
Marshall / Hampton Under 174.5

1*
Wis.-Green Bay / Texas Southern Under 176.5

1*
Lipscomb +1

1*
Tcu -120
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Rocky Atkinson

2*(nhl)
Philadelphia +165

2*(nhl)
Minnesota -115
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Adam Thompson

ARIZONA +102
ARIZONA @ SAN DIEGO | 4/02 | 10:10 PM EDT

Eric Lauer didn't allow a run in his Opening Day start, and he didn't allow a run in Spring Training, either. Zack Greinke was a disaster in his first start, shelled by the Dodgers for seven runs. But the D'backs have been successful against left-handed pitching, hitting a solid .300 (compared to the Padres' .231 clip against RHPs). Against Lauer specifically, Arizona's lineup is .423. The D'backs rank second only to the Dodgers in runs scored per game, and Greinke won't give up four homers at Petco like he did at Dodger Stadium.

14-8 IN LAST 22 SD ML PICKS | +414

3-0 IN LAST 3 ARI ML PICKS | +363

KANSAS CITY +125
MINNESOTA @ KANSAS CITY | 4/02 | 8:15 PM EDT

Two of the top starters from Opening Day face off. Jose Berrios struck out 10 for the Twins against the Indians. Brad Keller tossed seven scoreless against the White Sox in his opener, now he gets a Twins lineup that's 2-for-22 all-time against him. The Royals' offense has been more-productive than the Twins' lineup, and Berrios last season was nearly two runs and 48 batting average points worse on the road than at home. It's worth a flyer to take the home underdog.

7-0 IN LAST 7 MIN ML PICKS | +715

3-0 IN LAST 3 KC ML PICKS | +347

WASHINGTON -195
PHILADELPHIA @ WASHINGTON | 4/02 | 7:05 PM EDT

The Nationals' bullpen has been the worst in MLB by a wide margin. But when Max Scherzer is on the hill, it's practically OK to assume it'll need just 1-2 innings of production. Scherzer has faced the Phillies a lot in his career and he?s been successful, going 9-2 with a 2.64 ERA in 17 starts. He's struck out 30 the last three of them and the current Philly lineup is .173 lifetime against him. On the flip side, the Nationals are .391 against Zach Elfin. Of course, there's the added emotion of welcoming Bryce Harper back to his old haunt for the first time.

15-4 IN LAST 19 PHI ML PICKS | +1146

6-2 IN LAST 8 WAS ML PICKS | +404

MILWAUKEE -105
MILWAUKEE @ CINCINNATI | 4/02 | 6:40 PM EDT

Jhoulys Chacin served up back-to-back homers in the opener but otherwise was very solid in an Opening Day win over the Cardinals. He had a Spring Training ERA of just over 1.00 and is backed by one of the top bullpens in baseball. If he avoids Joey Votto, he has a good chance of success. The Brewers’ offense has scored at least four runs in every game this season, and the Reds are batting .200 in this first week. Anthony DeSclafani was a big disappointment in 2018, and worse at home than on the road.

12-3 IN LAST 15 MIL ML PICKS | +940

14-9 IN LAST 23 CIN ML PICKS | +281
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Posted : April 2, 2019 12:53 pm
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Bryan Leonard

AL GOW

4% Minnesota Twins -135
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Stats Analytics Sports

(NBA) - Atlanta Hawks +11
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Stats Analytics Sports (MLB)

All 2* Plays
Under 7.5 Royals/Twins
Under 8 Athletics/Red Sox
Under 7.5 Diamondbacks/Padres
Over 8 Giants/Dodgers

1* Royals +1.5
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Posted : April 2, 2019 1:36 pm
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Lv wolf

711 Texas under 1h 65
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Ben Burns

2*
BOSTON -169
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Goodfella

1*
BACKS/PADRES OVER 7

3*
Lipscomb - pk
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Posted : April 2, 2019 4:24 pm
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King creole

2*

Denver Nuggets / Golden State Warriors under 219.5
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Sleepyj

3*
Denver Nuggets / Golden State Warriors over 219
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JR ODONNELL

3*
Houston -5

3*
Texas +2
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Posted : April 2, 2019 4:26 pm
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Miller locks

6:40 pm est mlb
milwaukee brewers vs. Cincinnati reds

pick: Milwaukee brewers (-120)

risk: 11 units

7:10 pm est mlb
colorado rockies vs. Tampa bay rays

pick: Colorado rockies (+153)

risk: 11 units

8:05 pm est mlb
houston astros vs. Texas rangers

pick: Houston astros -1.5 (-135)

risk: 11 units
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The Spot Player MLB

2* Mets -131
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Ben Burns
OFF PERFECT 7-0 SWEEP TUES. MLB PERSONAL FAVORITE!
Boston vs. Oakland, 04/02/2019 22:07 EDT,

Money Line: -169 Boston

Sportsbook: BetOnline

I'm playing on BOSTON. Admittedly, Sale wasn't him self in his first start. Its also true that his velocity was down. What many may not realize is that his velocity was also down last March/April. Don't assume that he's not healthy. He is. The Sox thoroughly checked him out before re-signing him. His velocity will return. This is an effort to try and keep him healthy and throwing hard down the stretch, when it counts. A start under his belt and determined to get his team back on track, expect Sale to be MUCH better today. In his last three starts vs. the A's, Sale has 29K's in 19 innings. While Fiers was sharp last time out, he wasn't in his first start. He's going to be facing a desperate and talented team tonight. The Sox remain a profitable 114-51 (+19.8) when listed as a favorite of -150 or more. Expect Sale and co. to dig deep and show everyone that reports of their demise are greatly exaggerated.

Pick included in: Burns 7 Day All Sports Pass
Ben Burns
OFF PERFECT 7-0 SWEEP FAN APPRECIATION NHL ANNIHILATOR! (ONLY $20!)
Philadelphia vs. Dallas, 04/02/2019 20:30 EDT,

Point Spread: +1½/-171 Philadelphia

Sportsbook: PinnacleSports

I'm playing PHILADELPHIA on the puck-line. (+1.5 goals) With the Stars looking to wrap up a playoff spot and the Flyers playing for pride, the moneyline on Dallas has gotten pretty steep. Thats allowed us to get an extra 1.5 goals with the Flyers for a relatively reasonable price. Relatively reasonable given the high number of games decided by a single goal and the fact that Dallas actually only needs one point. (Just getting to OT would be enough.) Philadelphia's Carter Hart commented: "...we still have to play for pride and the logo on the front of our jersey. We need to finish strong so we can carry it into next season." The Stars, who are playing their first game back home from a road trip (often, a tough spot) have seen three straight games decided by a single goal. They've only won two of their last nine games by more than a goal. This season's earlier meeting was decided by a single goal. So were both of last season's games. I'm grabbing the extra +1.5 goals.

Pick included in: Burns 7 Day All Sports Pass
Ben Burns
OFF PERFECT 7-0 SWEEP TUES. AL VIOLATOR!
Baltimore vs. Toronto, 04/02/2019 19:07 EDT,

Money Line: -179 Toronto

Sportsbook: PinnacleSports

I'm playing on TORONTO. Strpman was superb (7 shutout innings, 2 hits allowed) in his first start but came away with nothing to show for it. He'll get more run support here. Cashner, unlike Stroman, struggled (13.00 ERA, 2.50 WHIP) in his first start. In fact, he allowed six earned runs in just four innings, also walking more than he struck out. Note that the Jays were a perfect 4-0 when facing Cashner last season. On the other hand, the Jays were 4-1 in Stroman's last five starts against the O's. Expect Stroman to get the better of Cashner, the Jays bouncing back and improving to 16-4 the last 20 times that they attempted to avenge a home loss when they were favored by -150 or more.

Pick included in: Burns 7 Day All Sports Pass
Ben Burns
OFF PERFECT 7-0 SWEEP TUES. AL VIOLATOR!
Baltimore vs. Toronto, 04/02/2019 19:07 EDT,

Money Line: -179 Toronto

Sportsbook: PinnacleSports

I'm playing on TORONTO. Strpman was superb (7 shutout innings, 2 hits allowed) in his first start but came away with nothing to show for it. He'll get more run support here. Cashner, unlike Stroman, struggled (13.00 ERA, 2.50 WHIP) in his first start. In fact, he allowed six earned runs in just four innings, also walking more than he struck out. Note that the Jays were a perfect 4-0 when facing Cashner last season. On the other hand, the Jays were 4-1 in Stroman's last five starts against the O's. Expect Stroman to get the better of Cashner, the Jays bouncing back and improving to 16-4 the last 20 times that they attempted to avenge a home loss when they were favored by -150 or more.

Pick included in: Burns 7 Day All Sports Pass
Ben Burns
OFF PERFECT 7-0 SWEEP TUES. NL VIOLATOR!
Philadelphia vs. Washington, 04/02/2019 19:05 EDT,

Money Line: -179 Washington

Sportsbook: PinnacleSports

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. Needless to say, this is a big game for both teams. Harper wants to make a successful return to Washington while the Nats are determined not to let him show them up. With Scherzer on the mound, I fully expect the home team to have the advantage. Note that the Nats are a dominant 14-2 the last 16 times that Scherzer faced Philadelphia. On the other hand, in Eflin's last two starts against Washington, he allowed 18 hits and 10 runs (7 earned) in just 8 2/3 combined innings. Not surprisingly, the Nats won both those games. Scherzer was excellent in his first start (2.35 ERA, 0.65 WHIP) with 12 K's in 7 2/3 innings. However, he got no support and was saddled with a loss. Expect that to change here, the Nats providing him with more runs, the Nats improving to 48-25 the past 2+ seasons, as favorites in the -175 to -250 range.

Pick included in: Burns 7 Day All Sports Pass
Stephen Nover
Stephen Nover's NIT Dominator - 33-15-1 CBB Run!
Wichita State vs. Lipscomb, 04/02/2019 19:00 EDT,

Point Spread: +1/-105 Lipscomb

Sportsbook: Bookmaker

Lipscomb lacks the name recoginition of Wichita State. But the Bisons are the better team.

The Bisons had 14 road victories, most in the nation. So they are well-tested away from home. They are 21-7-1 ATS during their past 29 nonconference games.

The Bisons have plenty of experience from last season's NCAA Tournament team. They are 19-3 in their last 22 games and rank in the Top 10 in scoring, scoring margin and assists.

I respect Wichita State coach Gregg Marshall. But the Shockers are going to have problems matching up against senior guard Garrison Mathews, who can light things up from the perimeter like he did against North Carolina State in the quarterfinals of this NIT tournament scoring 44 points. Matthews has averaged at least 20 points in each of the past three seasons.
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Posted : April 2, 2019 4:26 pm
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