Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Sunday 3/31/19
Auburn loses F Okeke with torn ACL. Kentucky beat Auburn twice this year, 82-80 on road, 80-53 at home; Wildcats won 19 of last 21 series games (5-2 in last seven, with both losses at Auburn). Kentucky won six of its last seven games overall; Calipari is 4-2 in regional finals at Kentucky, with last Final Four in 2015. Washington scored 16 points in 26:00 in his return from injury Friday; three Wildcats played 34:00+. Kentucky is experience team #351 that plays pace #284- they get 22.8% of points on foul line (#15). Auburn won its last 11 games since the loss at Kentucky; they’re experience team #37 that forces turnovers 25% of time. This is 5th time in last 10 years two teams from same league met in regional final; dogs went 2-2 vs spread in last four.
Duke is 0-3 vs spread in this tournament, 3-12 vs spread in last 15 games overall; Reddish didn’t play Friday, is gametime decision here. Duke beat Indiana by 21, their only Big 14 game this year. Blue Devils won their last two games by total of three points; they’re experience team #349. Michigan State won 13 of last 14 games after a 3-game skid in early February; they’re #140 experience team with #4 defensive eFG%. lost in OT at Louisville in its one ACC game. Since 2005, Duke is 2-1 vs MSU in NCAA’s, beating MSU in Final Four in 2015. Duke has been to one Final Four since 2011, going 1-2 in Elite 8 games since; Spartans are 7-2 in last nine Elite 8 games. Blue Devils won last meeting with MSU 88-81 in Nov ’17 on a neutral floor; Izzo is 1-11 vs Krzyzewski in his coaching career, with only win in ’05 NCAA’s.
By David Schwab
The other half of this year’s Final Four will be decided on Sunday with the championship matchup in both the Midwest and East Regions.
First off in an all-SEC showdown, the No. 5 Auburn Tigers tangle with the No. 2 Kentucky Wildcats for a trip to the Final Four out of the Midwest bracket.
Over in the East, the Big Ten’s Michigan State Spartans will square off against the ACC’s No. 1 Duke Blue Devils for the final spot in the 2019 NCAA Tournament semifinals.
Midwest Region Final (Kansas City, MO.)
No. 5 Auburn Tigers vs. No. 2 Kentucky Wildcats (CBS, 2:20 p.m. ET)
Opening Odds: Kentucky -3, 143 ½
Betting Matchup
Auburn started this run to the Elite Eight by winning this year’s SEC Tournament. The Tigers upended Tennessee 84-65 in the championship game on March 17 as five-point underdogs. Their current straight-up winning streak stands at 11 games with victories over New Mexico State, Kansas and North Carolina in this tournament. Auburn has gone 7-2 ATS in its last nine games with the total going OVER in the Tigers’ last four contests.
In Friday’s 97-80 romp over No. 1 North Carolina as a 5 ½-point underdog, Auburn lit it up from three-point range by going 17-for-37 from beyond the arc. Sophomore forward Chuma Okeke shot a blistering 72.2 percent from the field to lead the way with a game-high 20 points. However, he left the floor in the closing minutes after tearing the ACL in his left knee. He will miss the remainder of the NCAA Tournament.
Two of Kentucky’s 15 conference wins this season came against Auburn. The Wildcats covered the closing number in both games with the total evenly split 1-1. Heading in the third meeting this year, they are 10-2 SU in their last 12 games with tournament victories against Abilene Christian, Wofford and Houston. They covered the closing spread in all three games despite winning the last two games by a combined 10 points.
The total stayed UNDER 135 ½ points in Friday’s 62-58 victory against Houston as two-point favorites. It has stayed UNDER in eight of Kentucky’s last 10 games. PJ Washington missed the first two rounds of this tournament with a foot injury, but the sophomore forward made his presence felt in the Sweet 16 with 16 points on Friday night while shooting 75 percent from the field.
Betting Trends
-- The Tigers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven neutral-site games and they have gone 6-2 ATS in their last eight games against a team with a SU winning record. The total has stayed UNDER in 12 of their last 15 games against a SU winning team.
-- The Wildcats have a 6-1-2 record ATS in their last nine NCAA Tournament games. The total has stayed UNDER in five of their last six games at a neutral site and it has stayed under in 13 of its last 16 games in this tournament.
-- Kentucky has won four of the last six meetings SU, but Auburn has the slight 3-2-1 edge ATS. The total has stayed UNDER in 12 of the last 15 games between the two.
East Region Final (Washington DC)
No. 2 Michigan State Spartans vs. No. 1 Duke Blue Devils (CBS, 5:05 p.m. ET)
Opening Odds: Duke -1 ½, 148 ½
Betting Matchup
The Spartans’ current SU winning streak reached eight games with Friday’s 80-63 rout of LSU as six-point favorites. They have covered the spread in six of those games. The total stayed UNDER 148 points in that win and it has stayed UNDER in four of their last five contests.
Michigan State started this tournament with SU victories against Bradley and Minnesota after beating Michigan 65-60 as a slight 1 ½-point underdog in the Big Ten Tournament’s championship game.
Aaron Henry suffered the wrath of Michigan State head coach Tom Izzo earlier in this tournament and he responded on Friday night with his best game of the season. The freshman forward scored a team-high 20 points with eight rebounds and six assists to help lead his team to the Elite Eight.
Duke has been on a roll since mid-March with a SU six-game winning streak that includes a 73-63 victory against Florida State in the ACC Tournament’s title game as a seven-point favorite. This run also includes Friday night’s tight 75-73 win against conference foe Virginia Tech laying seven points on the closing line. The Blue Devils have now failed to cover in seven of their last eight games. The total went OVER 143 points in Friday’s contest after staying UNDER in six of their previous eight games.
Freshman sensation Zion Williamson scored a game-high 23 points in Friday’s win while going 11-for-14 from the field. Forward RJ Barrett added 18 points and 11 assists with Tre Jones scoring 22 points to help seal the trip to Sunday’s East Region Championship. A fourth freshman, Cam Reddish sat this one out with a bad knee. He's 'questionable' for Sunday and listed as a game-time decision. Reddish is Duke's third-leading scorer behind Barrett and Williamson.
Betting Trends
-- The Spartans have covered the spread in seven of their last 10 nonconference games and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five games played on Sunday. The total has gone OVER in seven of their last 10 games in the NCAA Tournament.
-- The Blue Devils are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games against the Big Ten, but they have failed to cover in their last five NCAA Tournament games. The total has stayed UNDER or ended as a PUSH in 23 of their last 31 games following a SU win.
-- Duke has a 4-1 edge ATS in the last five meetings and the total has gone OVER in the last four games in this Big Ten/ACC tilt.
691Michigan St -692 Duke
MICHIGAN ST is 11-0 ATS (11 Units) vs. excellent teams (Win Pct: 80%+) in the current season.
693Auburn -694 Kentucky
AUBURN is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in road games after a combined score of 165 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
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NCAAB
Long Sheet
Sunday, March 31
MICHIGAN ST (31 - 6) at DUKE (32 - 5) - 3/31/2019, 5:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DUKE is 36-17 ATS (+17.3 Units) in a home game where the total is 145 to 149.5 since 1997.
DUKE is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
DUKE is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in home games after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games since 1997.
MICHIGAN ST is 26-11 ATS (+13.9 Units) in all games this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 26-11 ATS (+13.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 101-65 ATS (+29.5 Units) when the total is 140 to 149.5 since 1997.
MICHIGAN ST is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN ST is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) after scoring 80 points or more this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 22-7 ATS (+14.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game this season.
DUKE is 66-94 ATS (-37.4 Units) in March games since 1997.
Head-to-Head Series History
DUKE is 1-1 against the spread versus MICHIGAN ST over the last 3 seasons
DUKE is 2-0 straight up against MICHIGAN ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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AUBURN (29 - 9) at KENTUCKY (30 - 6) - 3/31/2019, 2:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KENTUCKY is 95-65 ATS (+23.5 Units) in March games since 1997.
KENTUCKY is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) after allowing 60 points or less this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
KENTUCKY is 2-2 against the spread versus AUBURN over the last 3 seasons
KENTUCKY is 3-1 straight up against AUBURN over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NCAAB
Sunday, March 31
Trend Report
Auburn Tigers
Auburn is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games
Auburn is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Auburn's last 5 games
Auburn is 2-21 SU in its last 23 games when playing Kentucky
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Auburn's last 5 games when playing Kentucky
Kentucky Wildcats
Kentucky is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Kentucky is 20-3 SU in its last 23 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kentucky's last 6 games
Kentucky is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Auburn
Kentucky is 21-2 SU in its last 23 games when playing Auburn
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kentucky's last 5 games when playing Auburn
Michigan State Spartans
Michigan State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Michigan State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Michigan State's last 5 games
Michigan State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Duke
Michigan State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Duke
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Michigan State's last 9 games when playing Duke
Duke Blue Devils
Duke is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games
Duke is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Duke's last 20 games
Duke is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Michigan State
Duke is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Michigan State
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Duke's last 9 games when playing Michigan State
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