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NCAAB Betting News, Match-Ups and Trends For Friday 3/29/19

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(@shazman)
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Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Friday 3/29/19

 
Posted : March 29, 2019 10:04 am
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This is Michigan State’s first Sweet 16 in four years; Izzo won four of his last six games in this round. Spartans are 11-2 out of conference this year; they’ve won seven in row, 12 of last 13 games. MSU is experience team #138 that won by 4 at Florida in December, in its only SEC game. LSU won its two games LW by total of 7 points; Tigers have an interim coach and #324 experience team that is loaded with talent. LSU won 21 of its last 24 games; they’re 5-2 in OT games this season. This is only 3rd NCAA tourney since 2007 for Tigers. Last 10 years, underdogs are 7-5 vs spread when #2-seeds play #3-seeds in Sweet 16 games.

Since 2005, Duke is 4-5 SU in Sweet 16 games; they were favored in eight of those games. Duke lost 77-72 at Virginia Tech Feb 26 in game Zion Williamson missed; Hokies won six of their last eight games, are experience team #97 that plays pace #332- they gave up 52-58 points in their wins LW. Tech has its PG Robinson back; they’re shooting 39.5% on arc this season (#9). Duke survived nail biter with UCF Sunday; Blue Devils shot 10-25 on arc that day, after being #330 in country on arc before that. Duke won seven of eight games since the loss in Blacksburg. Last four years, #1-seeds are 10-1-1 vs spread in this round.

Under Calipari, Kentucky is 7-1 in Sweet 16 games, with only loss to Kansas State LY. Wildcats won five of their last six games, barely surviving Wofford last game; Kentucky is 12-2 outside SEC (NC asked #106). Houston is 33-3 this season, 15-0 outside the AAC (NC sked #279). Cougars beat LSU by 6 in December, their only SEC game this year- they have best defensive eFG% in country. Sampson is in his first Sweet 16 since ’03, when he had Oklahoma in Final 4, Elite 8 in consecutive years. Last 10 years, underdogs are 7-5 vs spread when #2-seeds play #3-seeds in Sweet 16 games.

North Carolina won 11 of its last 12 Sweet 16 games, with lone loss to Wisconsin four years ago; Tar Heels won 10 of their last 11 games- they scored 88-81 points in winning pair of games LW. UNC is 12-3 outside the ACC this year, losing to Kentucky on a neutral floor in December. Tar Heels play #6 pace in country. Auburn won its last 10 games after starting SEC play 7-7; Tigers are experience team #38 that forces turnovers 25.2% of time, most in country. Auburn is 0-2 vs ACC teams, losing by 6 to Duke, by 7 to NC State. Tigers are shooting 38.2% on arc (#16); they made 25-61 (40.9%) LW. Last four years, #1-seeds are 10-1-1 vs spread in this round.

Friday’s other tournament game
Cal-Bakersfield beat Fullerton/Southern Utah in this event, after losing nine of their previous ten games; Roadrunners are 8-5 outside the WAC- only two of their guys played more than 29:00 in their win at SUU Monday. Bakersfield is experience team #133 that plays pace #287; they play good defense but they foul a lot- opponents score 27.8% of their points on foul line, most in country. Green Bay won seven of its last ten games; they had a stress-free win over FIU Tuesday. Green Bay scored 102-98 points in its first tourney games. Phoenix is experience team #105 that plays pace #10.

 
Posted : March 29, 2019 10:05 am
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Friday, 29 March 2019 • 04:09 PM
667 LSU @ 668 MICHIGAN ST
Play on MICHIGAN ST using the money line in All games after allowing 60 points or less
The record is 16 Wins and 1 for the last two seasons (+14.6 units)
__________________

Friday, 29 March 2019 • 04:29 PM
673 AUBURN @ 674 N CAROLINA
Play on N CAROLINA using the money line in All games on Friday nights
The record is 35 Wins and 8 since 1996 (+26.75 units)
__________________

Friday, 29 March 2019 • 06:59 PM
671 HOUSTON @ 672 KENTUCKY
Play on HOUSTON in the first half in All games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games
The record is 18 Wins and 3 for the last two seasons (+14.7 units)
__________________

Friday, 29 March 2019 • 04:00 PM
675 CS-BAKERSFIELD @ 676 WI-GREEN BAY
Play under CS-BAKERSFIELD on the first half total in All games as an underdog vs. the 1rst half line
The record is 3 Overs and 12 this season (+8.7 units)
__________________

 
Posted : March 29, 2019 10:08 am
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Friday's Early Tips
By Kevin Rogers

East Region (Washington, DC)
No. 3 LSU vs. No. 2 Michigan State (CBS, 7:09 PM EST)

Opening Odds: Michigan State -6, 148

Michigan State (30-6 SU, 25-11 ATS) put together the best ATS record in the country this season, aided by a 9-0 ATS run from late December through January. The Spartans overcame a three-game losing streak halfway through Big 10 play to win seven of their final eight regular season contests to capture the conference title. MSU grabbed the Big 10 tournament title with three wins in three days, capped off by edging rival Michigan in the championship game, 65-60.

The Spartans trailed #15 seed Bradley in the opening round at halftime, 35-34 as 17 ½-point favorites, but bounced back to avoid the upset, 76-65. Cassius Winston led MSU with 26 points, while the Spartans overcame a 5-of-19 shooting performance from three-point range. Tom Izzo’s team advanced past the first round for the 12th time in 13 seasons, while not repeating the 2016 shocking defeat to Middle Tennessee State in the 2/15 matchup.

Michigan State didn’t mess around in its second round matchup with conference rival Minnesota as the Spartans rolled the Golden Gophers, 70-50 to cash as 10-point favorites. The Spartans routed Minnesota for the second time this season as they jumped out to a 33-19 halftime lead, while limiting the Gophers to 30% shooting from the field and 2-of-22 from long distance. MSU advanced past the first weekend for the first time since reaching the Final Four in 2015.

LSU (28-6 SU, 19-14-1 ATS) won its most regular season games since 2008-09, when the Tigers advanced to the second round of the NCAA tournament. The Tigers took home the SEC regular season title with a 16-2 record before getting bounced by Florida in the conference quarterfinals. LSU covered 14 of 18 regular season SEC games, while winning five conference contests in overtime.

The Tigers squeezed by in each of their first two tournament contests in Jacksonville to advance to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2006, when they made it all the way to the Final Four. LSU built a 45-29 halftime edge over Yale in the first round before the Bulldogs rallied back to cover as seven-point underdogs in a 79-74 defeat. Skylar Mays led LSU with 19 points as the Tigers overcame a 4-of-17 shooting performance from three-point range and nine missed free throws.

LSU had another close-shave in the second round as the Tigers slipped past Maryland, 69-67. For the second straight game, the Tigers started strong as they led the Terrapins by 15 points in the first half, but Maryland came back to grab a 57-55 advantage with less than six minutes remaining in regulation. After Maryland tied the game late on a three-pointer, LSU delivered the final blow on a Tremont Waters layup in the final seconds, but the Terps cashed as three-point underdogs.

It’s been awhile since these teams met as Michigan State beat LSU, 87-71 in the 1979 Sweet 16. The Tigers have thrived in the underdog role this season by posting a 6-1-1 ATS record, while losing to Houston and Florida State. Michigan State has excelled as a single-digit favorite this season by going 13-2 SU/ATS in this role, but the Spartans are 2-5 ATS in their last seven NCAA tournament contests.

Midwest Region (Kansas City, MO)
No. 5 Auburn vs. No. 1 North Carolina (TBS, 7:29 PM EST)

Opening Odds: North Carolina -5 ½, 164 ½

The third SEC team to take the court in the Sweet 16 is Auburn (28-9 SU, 19-16-1 ATS), who overcame a 2-4 start in SEC play to finish 11-7 in the league. The Tigers have heated up at the right time by winning 10 straight games since getting blown out at Kentucky, 80-53 on February 23. Auburn grabbed four wins in four days at the SEC tournament, capped off by an 84-64 rout of Tennessee in the championship, marking its second win over the Volunteers in an eight-day stretch.

Bruce Pearl’s team seemed like a potential upset victim in many brackets in the 5/12 matchup against New Mexico State in the opening round of the tournament. The Tigers led the Aggies by 13 points with 7:10 remaining in regulation, but NMSU put together a furious rally to get within one point in the final seconds. However, the Aggies missed two of three free throws with one second remaining and Auburn escaped with a 78-77 victory. The Tigers failed to cover as 5 ½-point favorites, but managed to advance past the first round for the second straight season.

Last season, Auburn was destroyed by Clemson in the second round by 31 points, but the Tigers were not going to be a one-and-done casualty for a second straight season. Auburn ripped up Kansas in the round of 32 as two-point favorites, 89-75 as the Tigers built a commanding 26-point cushion and never looked back. Bryce Brown paced Auburn with 25 points, including hitting seven three-pointers, while the Tigers shot 52% from the floor.

The task won’t be easy for Auburn in the Sweet 16 as the Tigers draw a solid North Carolina (29-6 SU, 22-11-2 ATS) squad. The Tar Heels won 14 of their final 15 regular season contests, including a sweep of Duke, while covering 10 times. UNC had to settle for an at-large NCAA tournament bid after losing to Duke in the ACC semifinals, 74-73, but the Tar Heels picked up the cover as 4 ½-point underdogs.

North Carolina failed to escape the first weekend in three of the previous six seasons, including suffering a 21-point loss to Texas A&M in last season’s second round. Prior to that quick exit, the Tar Heels reached the NCAA championship in 2016 and 2017, as Roy Williams’ club fell at the buzzer to Villanova, followed by a six-point triumph over Gonzaga for his third title since coming to Chapel Hill.

The Tar Heels are in their eighth Sweet 16 under Williams when listed as a top seed as UNC made fast work of Iona in the first round, 88-73. UNC trailed at halftime, 38-33, but outscored the Gaels in the second half, 55-35, highlighted by 21 points from Cameron Johnson. The Tar Heels couldn’t manage the cover as hefty 24 ½-point underdogs, while the game barely finished UNDER the total of 166 ½.

UNC got back on track against Washington in the second round with an 81-59 victory to cash as 11 ½-point favorites. Luke Maye and Nassar Little each posted 20-point performances for the Tar Heels, who improved to 12-6-1 ATS this season as a double-digit favorite. North Carolina cashed the UNDER for the fifth time in six games, while limiting an opponent to below 60 points for the fifth time this season.

The Tar Heels own an impressive 13-1 record in the round of 16 dating back to 1993 with the only loss in this span coming to Wisconsin in 2015. North Carolina and Auburn are hooking up for the first time since the 1985 Southeast Regional Semifinal, won by the Tar Heels, 62-56.

 
Posted : March 29, 2019 10:13 am
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Friday's Late Tips
By Tony Mejia

East Region - Washington DC - Capital One Arena
#4 Virginia Tech vs. #1 Duke - 9:39 PM EST - CBS

Opening Odds: Duke -7.5, 144.5

-- Duke (31-5 SU, 18-18 ATS) wouldn't be playing on Friday night had it not been for an amazing amount of luck that helped it avoid a monumental upset at the hands of UCF on Sunday. From calls that went their way to fouls they got away with to missed alley-oops and tip-ins that teased but didn't add points to the Knights' total, the Blue Devils got through a game where they didn't play well and avoided elimination. It's always better to be lucky than good, especially when you're really good.

-- We'll see if the close call sparks the Blue Devils as they move from Columbia, S.C. to D.C., where they'll have plenty of support and a familiar opponent to focus on as they try to get to the Elite Eight for the second straight season, which is something Mike Krzyzewski hasn't accomplished since 1998-99. Those teams featured Elton Brand, Shane Battier, Trajan Langdon and William Avery, who while older formed a group similar to this one led by freshmen Zion Williamson, R.J. Barrett, Cam Reddish and Tre Jones.

-- In order to advance, Duke will have to avenge a loss it suffered against Virginia Tech (26-8 SU, 18-15-1 ATS) on Feb. 26 in Blacksburg. Williamson wasn't available for that game due to a knee sprain caused by his shoe disaster, so the Blue Devils struggled to protect the paint and Kerry Blackshear had his way with Javin DeLaurier and Marques Bolden, finishing with 23 points and 10 boards. Although Williamson was sidelined, the Hokies still deserve major props for their victory since it came without injured point guard Justin Robinson, who has since returned in this NCAA Tournament after being out since Jan. 30. The senior had 13 points and looked sharp in this past weekend's win over Liberty, a game Virginia Tech would've struggled to survive without him.

-- Versatile wing Ty Outlaw scored 11 points in that first meeting with Duke and should be in the starting lineup despite marijuana being found in his room by campus police while he was playing in last weekend's games in San Jose. After passing a drug test, Outlaw has been cleared to play since he won't be suspended. He hit a huge tie-breaking 3-pointer to help defeat the Blue Devils and will be invaluable in helping match up with their wings.

-- The Blue Devils are 5-0 since Williamson returned in the ACC Tournament and has shot nearly 69 percent from the field and 47 percent from 3-point range in averaging 27.6 points and 8.8 rebounds. He stole the UCF game for Duke with his late heroics and will be tasked with keeping Blackshear from imposing his will inside while testing a thin Virginia Tech front line.

-- Robinson has talked about the Hokies beating the Blue Devils in three of his four years on campus, so there won't be any trepidation over facing the nation's top-ranked team. Buzz Williams has one foot out the door since he's likely headed to fill the Texas A&M opening whenever Virginia Tech is eliminated, but they'll paitently wait for him as long as that takes so it shouldn't affect his veteran team.

-- The 'under' has prevailed in the last four games involving the Hokies, who rank ninth in the country in scoring defense, surrendering 61.7 points per game. Duke ranks ninth nationally in scoring offense with an output of 83.4 points per game.

-- Virginia Tech entered the NCAA Tournament with 60/1 odds to win it all, per the Westgate Superbook, which came down from 80/1 on Selection Sunday. The latest odds update has the Hokies at 40/1. The Blue Devils were the favorite (9/4) to win it all when the NCAAs began but their scare vs. UCF has moved them to 3/1.

Midwest Region - Kansas City, MO - Sprint Center
#3 Houston vs. #2 Kentucky - 9:57 PM EST - TNT

Opening Odds: Kentucky -2.5, 135

-- While Kentucky (29-6 SU, 18-16-1 ATS) can put together the fifth 30-win season of John Calipari's 10-year stint in Lexington, it's clear nothing is going to come easily after last weekend's close call against Wofford. The 'Cats surrendered an average of 50 points in their first two games in Jacksonville and will likely have to grind out at least one more victory given the opposition. Houston (33-3 SU, 22-12-2 ATS) ranks seventh in scoring defense (61.0 ppg). Kentucky allows 64.5 points per game, 27th in the country.

-- Kentucky has been working without top forward P.J. Washington, who arrived in Kansas City wearing a cast on his left foot after spraining it in the SEC Tournament. Big Blue's leading scorer (14.8 ppg) and rebounder (7.6 rpg) did a few things in practice but is considered questionable to play and may end up getting an additional two days to see if he can't be more effective in a regional final. The problem of course would then become getting there without him. E.J. Montgomery, Keldon Johnson and Nick Richards have filled in next to Reid Travis. Houston coach Kelvin Sampson said that he hadn't watched any tape of the 'Cats without Washington, expecting him to play.

-- The Cougars are playing in their first Sweet 16 since 1984. The Hakeem Olajuwon-led version has some company now that this group has re-written the school-record for wins after surviving the Buckeyes 74-59.

-- Houston's calling card is a defense that has held opponents to the lowest field-goal percentage defense (.366) and top 3-point percentage defense in the country (.278).

-- Offensively, the Cougars are led by point guard Galen Robinson, who just set a school-record playing in his 135th career game. He leads the team in assists (4.9) and is one of those old-school point guards who controls pace at both ends, so his matchup with pesky freshman Ashton Hagans will also play a huge role. Corey Davis, Jr. is Houston's top scorer (17.2 ppg), but junior Armani Brooks (13.2 ppg) isn't far behind and can similarly light teams up from the perimeter.

-- Houston was 40/1 to win the NCAA Tournament per Westgate when the tournament began and is now 30/1 after reaching the Sweet 16. The 'Cats were 12/1 when the tournament began and are now 16/1, so the books aren't all that confident in their ability to get through the weekend.

-- The 'under' is on a 4-1 run in Houston games, part of a 9-4 stretch over the last 13. The 'under' is 16-5 over the past few months in UK games since Jan. 12 and has prevailed in six of the Wildcats' last eight contests.

 
Posted : March 29, 2019 10:15 am
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NCAAB
Friday, March 29
Trend Report

Cal State-Bakersfield @ Wisconsin-Green Bay
Cal State-Bakersfield
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cal State-Bakersfield's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cal State-Bakersfield's last 5 games
Wisconsin-Green Bay
Wisconsin-Green Bay is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Wisconsin-Green Bay is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home

LSU @ Michigan State
LSU
LSU is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LSU's last 7 games
Michigan State
Michigan State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Michigan State is 18-7 ATS in its last 25 games

Auburn @ North Carolina
Auburn
Auburn is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Auburn is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
North Carolina
North Carolina is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
North Carolina is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games

Virginia Tech @ Duke
Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Virginia Tech's last 5 games
Duke
Duke is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Duke is 14-4 SU in its last 18 games when playing Virginia Tech

Houston @ Kentucky
Houston
Houston is 18-2 SU in its last 20 games
Houston is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Kentucky
Kentucky is 19-3 SU in its last 22 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kentucky's last 5 games
__________________

 
Posted : March 29, 2019 10:17 am
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NCAAB
Long Sheet
Friday, March 29

LSU (28 - 6) vs. MICHIGAN ST (30 - 6) - 3/29/2019, 7:09 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MICHIGAN ST is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) in all games this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 100-65 ATS (+28.5 Units) when the total is 140 to 149.5 since 1997.
MICHIGAN ST is 23-9 ATS (+13.1 Units) as a favorite this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) after a conference game this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) off a win against a conference rival this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after allowing 60 points or less this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 21-7 ATS (+13.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
MICHIGAN ST is 25-13 ATS (+10.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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VIRGINIA TECH (26 - 8) vs. DUKE (31 - 5) - 3/29/2019, 9:39 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DUKE is 136-104 ATS (+21.6 Units) when the total is 140 to 149.5 since 1997.
VIRGINIA TECH is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) on Friday nights over the last 2 seasons.
VIRGINIA TECH is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
DUKE is 66-93 ATS (-36.3 Units) in March games since 1997.
DUKE is 17-32 ATS (-18.2 Units) in road games on Friday nights since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
VIRGINIA TECH is 3-1 against the spread versus DUKE over the last 3 seasons
VIRGINIA TECH is 3-1 straight up against DUKE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HOUSTON (33 - 3) vs. KENTUCKY (29 - 6) - 3/29/2019, 9:59 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KENTUCKY is 94-65 ATS (+22.5 Units) in March games since 1997.
KENTUCKY is 58-37 ATS (+17.3 Units) when playing with 5 or 6 days rest since 1997.
KENTUCKY is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) after allowing 60 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 21-12 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all games this season.
HOUSTON is 21-12 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
HOUSTON is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) after allowing 60 points or less this season.
HOUSTON is 29-18 ATS (+9.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

AUBURN (28 - 9) vs. N CAROLINA (29 - 6) - 3/29/2019, 7:29 PM
Top Trends for this game.
N CAROLINA is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all games this season.
N CAROLINA is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
N CAROLINA is 18-10 ATS (+7.0 Units) as a favorite this season.
N CAROLINA is 182-142 ATS (+25.8 Units) after a non-conference game since 1997.
N CAROLINA is 181-142 ATS (+24.8 Units) in non-conference games since 1997.
N CAROLINA is 88-56 ATS (+26.4 Units) after allowing 60 points or less since 1997.
N CAROLINA is 17-9 ATS (+7.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
N CAROLINA is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games this season.
N CAROLINA is 10-3 ATS (+6.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
__________________

 
Posted : March 29, 2019 10:20 am
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Midwest Region (Kansas City, MO)

No. 5 Auburn vs. No. 1 North Carolina (TBS, 7:29 PM EST)

Opening Odds: North Carolina -5 ½, 164 ½

The third SEC team to take the court in the Sweet 16 is Auburn (28-9 SU, 19-16-1 ATS), who overcame a 2-4 start in SEC play to finish 11-7 in the league. The Tigers have heated up at the right time by winning 10 straight games since getting blown out at Kentucky, 80-53 on February 23. Auburn grabbed four wins in four days at the SEC tournament, capped off by an 84-64 rout of Tennessee in the championship, marking its second win over the Volunteers in an eight-day stretch.

Bruce Pearl’s team seemed like a potential upset victim in many brackets in the 5/12 matchup against New Mexico State in the opening round of the tournament. The Tigers led the Aggies by 13 points with 7:10 remaining in regulation, but NMSU put together a furious rally to get within one point in the final seconds. However, the Aggies missed two of three free throws with one second remaining and Auburn escaped with a 78-77 victory. The Tigers failed to cover as 5 ½-point favorites, but managed to advance past the first round for the second straight season.

Last season, Auburn was destroyed by Clemson in the second round by 31 points, but the Tigers were not going to be a one-and-done casualty for a second straight season. Auburn ripped up Kansas in the round of 32 as two-point favorites, 89-75 as the Tigers built a commanding 26-point cushion and never looked back. Bryce Brown paced Auburn with 25 points, including hitting seven three-pointers, while the Tigers shot 52% from the floor.

The task won’t be easy for Auburn in the Sweet 16 as the Tigers draw a solid North Carolina (29-6 SU, 22-11-2 ATS) squad. The Tar Heels won 14 of their final 15 regular season contests, including a sweep of Duke, while covering 10 times. UNC had to settle for an at-large NCAA tournament bid after losing to Duke in the ACC semifinals, 74-73, but the Tar Heels picked up the cover as 4 ½-point underdogs.

North Carolina failed to escape the first weekend in three of the previous six seasons, including suffering a 21-point loss to Texas A&M in last season’s second round. Prior to that quick exit, the Tar Heels reached the NCAA championship in 2016 and 2017, as Roy Williams’ club fell at the buzzer to Villanova, followed by a six-point triumph over Gonzaga for his third title since coming to Chapel Hill.

The Tar Heels are in their eighth Sweet 16 under Williams when listed as a top seed as UNC made fast work of Iona in the first round, 88-73. UNC trailed at halftime, 38-33, but outscored the Gaels in the second half, 55-35, highlighted by 21 points from Cameron Johnson. The Tar Heels couldn’t manage the cover as hefty 24 ½-point underdogs, while the game barely finished UNDER the total of 166 ½.

UNC got back on track against Washington in the second round with an 81-59 victory to cash as 11 ½-point favorites. Luke Maye and Nassar Little each posted 20-point performances for the Tar Heels, who improved to 12-6-1 ATS this season as a double-digit favorite. North Carolina cashed the UNDER for the fifth time in six games, while limiting an opponent to below 60 points for the fifth time this season.

The Tar Heels own an impressive 13-1 record in the round of 16 dating back to 1993 with the only loss in this span coming to Wisconsin in 2015. North Carolina and Auburn are hooking up for the first time since the 1985 Southeast Regional Semifinal, won by the Tar Heels, 62-56.
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Posted : March 29, 2019 12:49 pm
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East Region - Washington DC - Capital One Arena

#4 Virginia Tech vs. #1 Duke - 9:39 PM EST - CBS

Opening Odds: Duke -7.5, 144.5

-- Duke (31-5 SU, 18-18 ATS) wouldn't be playing on Friday night had it not been for an amazing amount of luck that helped it avoid a monumental upset at the hands of UCF on Sunday. From calls that went their way to fouls they got away with to missed alley-oops and tip-ins that teased but didn't add points to the Knights' total, the Blue Devils got through a game where they didn't play well and avoided elimination. It's always better to be lucky than good, especially when you're really good.

-- We'll see if the close call sparks the Blue Devils as they move from Columbia, S.C. to D.C., where they'll have plenty of support and a familiar opponent to focus on as they try to get to the Elite Eight for the second straight season, which is something Mike Krzyzewski hasn't accomplished since 1998-99. Those teams featured Elton Brand, Shane Battier, Trajan Langdon and William Avery, who while older formed a group similar to this one led by freshmen Zion Williamson, R.J. Barrett, Cam Reddish and Tre Jones.

-- In order to advance, Duke will have to avenge a loss it suffered against Virginia Tech (26-8 SU, 18-15-1 ATS) on Feb. 26 in Blacksburg. Williamson wasn't available for that game due to a knee sprain caused by his shoe disaster, so the Blue Devils struggled to protect the paint and Kerry Blackshear had his way with Javin DeLaurier and Marques Bolden, finishing with 23 points and 10 boards. Although Williamson was sidelined, the Hokies still deserve major props for their victory since it came without injured point guard Justin Robinson, who has since returned in this NCAA Tournament after being out since Jan. 30. The senior had 13 points and looked sharp in this past weekend's win over Liberty, a game Virginia Tech would've struggled to survive without him.

-- Versatile wing Ty Outlaw scored 11 points in that first meeting with Duke and should be in the starting lineup despite marijuana being found in his room by campus police while he was playing in last weekend's games in San Jose. After passing a drug test, Outlaw has been cleared to play since he won't be suspended. He hit a huge tie-breaking 3-pointer to help defeat the Blue Devils and will be invaluable in helping match up with their wings.

-- The Blue Devils are 5-0 since Williamson returned in the ACC Tournament and has shot nearly 69 percent from the field and 47 percent from 3-point range in averaging 27.6 points and 8.8 rebounds. He stole the UCF game for Duke with his late heroics and will be tasked with keeping Blackshear from imposing his will inside while testing a thin Virginia Tech front line.

-- Robinson has talked about the Hokies beating the Blue Devils in three of his four years on campus, so there won't be any trepidation over facing the nation's top-ranked team. Buzz Williams has one foot out the door since he's likely headed to fill the Texas A&M opening whenever Virginia Tech is eliminated, but they'll paitently wait for him as long as that takes so it shouldn't affect his veteran team.

-- The 'under' has prevailed in the last four games involving the Hokies, who rank ninth in the country in scoring defense, surrendering 61.7 points per game. Duke ranks ninth nationally in scoring offense with an output of 83.4 points per game.

-- Virginia Tech entered the NCAA Tournament with 60/1 odds to win it all, per the Westgate Superbook, which came down from 80/1 on Selection Sunday. The latest odds update has the Hokies at 40/1. The Blue Devils were the favorite (9/4) to win it all when the NCAAs began but their scare vs. UCF has moved them to 3/1.
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Posted : March 29, 2019 12:50 pm
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Midwest Region - Kansas City, MO - Sprint Center

#3 Houston vs. #2 Kentucky - 9:57 PM EST - TNT

Opening Odds: Kentucky -2.5, 135

-- While Kentucky (29-6 SU, 18-16-1 ATS) can put together the fifth 30-win season of John Calipari's 10-year stint in Lexington, it's clear nothing is going to come easily after last weekend's close call against Wofford. The 'Cats surrendered an average of 50 points in their first two games in Jacksonville and will likely have to grind out at least one more victory given the opposition. Houston (33-3 SU, 22-12-2 ATS) ranks seventh in scoring defense (61.0 ppg). Kentucky allows 64.5 points per game, 27th in the country.

-- Kentucky has been working without top forward P.J. Washington, who arrived in Kansas City wearing a cast on his left foot after spraining it in the SEC Tournament. Big Blue's leading scorer (14.8 ppg) and rebounder (7.6 rpg) did a few things in practice but is considered questionable to play and may end up getting an additional two days to see if he can't be more effective in a regional final. The problem of course would then become getting there without him. E.J. Montgomery, Keldon Johnson and Nick Richards have filled in next to Reid Travis. Houston coach Kelvin Sampson said that he hadn't watched any tape of the 'Cats without Washington, expecting him to play.

-- The Cougars are playing in their first Sweet 16 since 1984. The Hakeem Olajuwon-led version has some company now that this group has re-written the school-record for wins after surviving the Buckeyes 74-59.

-- Houston's calling card is a defense that has held opponents to the lowest field-goal percentage defense (.366) and top 3-point percentage defense in the country (.278).

-- Offensively, the Cougars are led by point guard Galen Robinson, who just set a school-record playing in his 135th career game. He leads the team in assists (4.9) and is one of those old-school point guards who controls pace at both ends, so his matchup with pesky freshman Ashton Hagans will also play a huge role. Corey Davis, Jr. is Houston's top scorer (17.2 ppg), but junior Armani Brooks (13.2 ppg) isn't far behind and can similarly light teams up from the perimeter.

-- Houston was 40/1 to win the NCAA Tournament per Westgate when the tournament began and is now 30/1 after reaching the Sweet 16. The 'Cats were 12/1 when the tournament began and are now 16/1, so the books aren't all that confident in their ability to get through the weekend.

-- The 'under' is on a 4-1 run in Houston games, part of a 9-4 stretch over the last 13. The 'under' is 16-5 over the past few months in UK games since Jan. 12 and has prevailed in six of the Wildcats' last eight contests.
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Posted : March 29, 2019 12:51 pm
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East Region (Washington, DC)

No. 3 LSU vs. No. 2 Michigan State (CBS, 7:09 PM EST)

Opening Odds: Michigan State -6, 148

Michigan State (30-6 SU, 25-11 ATS) put together the best ATS record in the country this season, aided by a 9-0 ATS run from late December through January. The Spartans overcame a three-game losing streak halfway through Big 10 play to win seven of their final eight regular season contests to capture the conference title. MSU grabbed the Big 10 tournament title with three wins in three days, capped off by edging rival Michigan in the championship game, 65-60.

The Spartans trailed #15 seed Bradley in the opening round at halftime, 35-34 as 17 ½-point favorites, but bounced back to avoid the upset, 76-65. Cassius Winston led MSU with 26 points, while the Spartans overcame a 5-of-19 shooting performance from three-point range. Tom Izzo’s team advanced past the first round for the 12th time in 13 seasons, while not repeating the 2016 shocking defeat to Middle Tennessee State in the 2/15 matchup.

Michigan State didn’t mess around in its second round matchup with conference rival Minnesota as the Spartans rolled the Golden Gophers, 70-50 to cash as 10-point favorites. The Spartans routed Minnesota for the second time this season as they jumped out to a 33-19 halftime lead, while limiting the Gophers to 30% shooting from the field and 2-of-22 from long distance. MSU advanced past the first weekend for the first time since reaching the Final Four in 2015.

LSU (28-6 SU, 19-14-1 ATS) won its most regular season games since 2008-09, when the Tigers advanced to the second round of the NCAA tournament. The Tigers took home the SEC regular season title with a 16-2 record before getting bounced by Florida in the conference quarterfinals. LSU covered 14 of 18 regular season SEC games, while winning five conference contests in overtime.

The Tigers squeezed by in each of their first two tournament contests in Jacksonville to advance to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2006, when they made it all the way to the Final Four. LSU built a 45-29 halftime edge over Yale in the first round before the Bulldogs rallied back to cover as seven-point underdogs in a 79-74 defeat. Skylar Mays led LSU with 19 points as the Tigers overcame a 4-of-17 shooting performance from three-point range and nine missed free throws.

LSU had another close-shave in the second round as the Tigers slipped past Maryland, 69-67. For the second straight game, the Tigers started strong as they led the Terrapins by 15 points in the first half, but Maryland came back to grab a 57-55 advantage with less than six minutes remaining in regulation. After Maryland tied the game late on a three-pointer, LSU delivered the final blow on a Tremont Waters layup in the final seconds, but the Terps cashed as three-point underdogs.

It’s been awhile since these teams met as Michigan State beat LSU, 87-71 in the 1979 Sweet 16. The Tigers have thrived in the underdog role this season by posting a 6-1-1 ATS record, while losing to Houston and Florida State. Michigan State has excelled as a single-digit favorite this season by going 13-2 SU/ATS in this role, but the Spartans are 2-5 ATS in their last seven NCAA tournament contests.
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Posted : March 29, 2019 12:53 pm
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