Thursday 3/28/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for Thursday's NCAAB, NHL & NBA games.
Mike Tierney
OREGON +8
OREGON VS VIRGINIA | 3/28 | 9:59 PM EDT
Oregon is on a 9-1 Under streak, while Virginia has been Under in four of the past five neutral-site games. Why is that relevant to the pick? Well, eight points is a sizable spread for a game carrying a total of 118. The Ducks are no fluky No. 12 seed to reach the Sweet 16. Their suddenly awakened defense and style of play can keep the Cavaliers within single digits.
7-2-1 IN LAST 10 CBB PICKS | +483
4-1-2 IN LAST 7 OREG ATS PICKS | +290
4-2 IN LAST 6 UVA ATS PICKS | +180
__________________
Josh Nagel
TENNESSEE -1.5
PURDUE VS TENNESSEE | 3/28 | 7:29 PM EDT
Purdue's half-court execution on both ends translates well to the postseason. The Boilermakers are strong on the defensive end but can still struggle for consistent offense. They have just two players who score in double figures and can rely on Carsen Edwards a little too often. Tennessee has five players in double figures and eight who average at least 12 minutes. The Volunteers overcame adversity amid Iowa's wild comeback from a 25-point deficit in the second round. Look for them to make just enough plays to clip Purdue and advance to the Elite Eight.
53-40-1 IN LAST 94 CBB ATS PICKS | +796
5-0 IN LAST 5 TENN ATS PICKS | +500
7-3 IN LAST 10 PURDUE ATS PICKS | +375
__________________
Stephen Oh
GONZAGA -7
FLORIDA ST. VS GONZAGA | 3/28 | 7:09 PM EDT
I'm projecting a double-digit win for the Zags in the Sweet 16, despite FSU's impressive seven-game win streak. Gonzaga averages just under 89 points per game, most in the nation, and has put up 87 and 83 in the NCAA Tournament thus far. Look for the Zags to get to 80 again and cover.
5-3 IN LAST 8 CBB ATS PICKS | +161
__________________
Brandon Watson (CBB - Sweet 16)
Tennessee -1
Michigan -2
__________________
Ken Thomson
3* Tennessee -115
__________________
Spartan
3* Oregon +8
__________________
Greg shaker
2* Kentucky -2
3*GOM
Florida st +7
__________________
Stats Analytics Sports
(CBB) - 3* Tennessee/Purdue Under 147
__________________
Marco D'Angelo/Sports Unlimited
PLAY: (656) GONZAGA -7.5
RATING: 5% PLAY
Love the set up we have in this Sweet 16 match up. Florida St looked as good as a team could look with their Blowout win over Murray St. Florida St simply had too many weapons for Murray St as Florida St shot over 50% after shooting 31 & 38% in the two games before that. Gonzaga however is the best Offensive team in the country hitting 53.2% of their shots this season. I don’t see this Florida St team being able to trade points with Gonzaga. Gonzaga is also the 6th best team in the country defensively allowing teams to hit just 38.7% of their shots this season. When we get to the end of the game and Florida St has to foul they will be fouling the 18th best free throw shooting team in College Basketball as Gonzaga hits 76.2% of their free throws. So Gonzaga should be extending their lead late in the game. If that wasn’t already enough which it is there’s that little thing called Revenge as Florida St knocked Gonzaga out of the Big Dance last year. Lastly Gonzaga is 14-6 ATS this season after scoring 80 or more points in 2 straight games this year. The market has over reacted to Florida St blowout win and gives us tremendous line value with Gonzaga. My numbers have Gonzaga Winning by 12-15 points.
TAKE GONZAGA as MARCO’S 5% SWEET 16 GAME OF THE MONTH
__________________
Rooster
657 TEX Tech +2 ( 2%)
655 Florida st 7.5
__________________
Vegas Sharp 3/28 CBB
4 Tennessee -1
3 Texas Tech +2
__________________
Goodfella
3*GOY
Oregon +9
__________________
Greg shaker
3*TOW
Utah / LA LAKERS under 219
__________________
Sleepyj
3*
Memphis / golden state over 219.5
__________________
Miller locks
8:05 pm est nba
portland trail blazers vs. Chicago bulls
pick: Chicago bulls +9 (-107)
risk: 11 units
9:00 pm est ncaab
lipscomb vs. Nc state
pick: Nc state -4.5 (-109)
risk: 11 units
9:00 pm est ncaab
colorado vs. Texas
pick: Colorado +5.5 (-102)
risk: 11 units
__________________
Goodfella
3*
Utah -15
__________________
Andre Gomes
2*
Portland Trail Blazers /Chicago Bulls under 215
__________________
Spain Picks
NHL
Toronto over 6.5
Vegas under 5.5
Calgary -150
Boston PL-1.5
NBA
Washington over 230.5
Portland -8
Memphis over 217
Utah -15
NHL BEST BET
Toronto over 6.5
NBA BEST BET
Washington over 230.5
__________________
sportsbetting whale
Memphis +11/ Calgary flames-160
__________________
Adam Rompin Thompson
COLORADO -145
COLORADO @ MIAMI | 3/28 | 4:10 PM EDT
3:06 PM
The Marlins batted .228 against LHPs in 2018, so on Opening Day they get Kyle Freeland, the Rockies lefty who finished fourth in NL Cy Young voting last year and has a big-hitting lineup behind him. The Marlins have lost five of seven Opening Day games at home, and Jose Urena was 3-9 at home last year. The Rockies’ batters should do more than enough to get Freeland and Opening Day win.
12-5 IN LAST 17 COL ML PICKS | +599
3-0 IN LAST 3 MIA ML PICKS | +300
HOUSTON -118
HOUSTON @ TAMPA BAY | 3/28 | 4:00 PM EDT
3:04 PM
Blake Snell was a monster for the Rays last year en route to the Cy Young Award. But Houston kept its lineup basically intact from last year, a lineup that ranked No. 1 in MLB in hitting against lefties. Justin Verlander was a ridiculous 12-2 with a 2.14 ERA on the road last year, and he's backed by a bullpen that was tops in the league in ERA.
12-5 IN LAST 17 HOU ML PICKS | +551
8-3 IN LAST 11 TB ML PICKS | +447
KANSAS CITY -109
CHI. WHITE SOX @ KANSAS CITY | 3/28 | 4:15 PM EDT
3:00 PM
Two teams looking to forget 2018 seasons facing off. Brad Keller had a solid season, but he was most-effective at home last year, going 5-1 with a 2.93 ERA and .220 average against. The White Sox didn’t fare great against him in seven appearances, batting only .250. Carlos Rodon couldn’t get out of his own way. He allowed batters to hit just .223 in road games against him, but his 4.68 road ERA was more than a run higher than his home split, and the Royals’ Opening Day roster is a lifetime .405 against him.
8-4 IN LAST 12 CHW ML PICKS | +390
3-1 IN LAST 4 KC ML PICKS | +219
BOSTON -200
BOSTON @ SEATTLE | 3/28 | 7:10 PM EDT
2:59 PM
Seattle has a lot of things going for itself on this Opening Day. For one, the Mariners are already 2-0 on the season with the wins over the A’s in Tokyo. And starter Marco Gonzales is already 1-0. The team has won five of six Opening Day games, too. But when healthy, Chris Sale is about as unstoppable as it comes. And he’s healthy for Opening Day. He’s also been amazing in Seattle, going 3-0 with a 1.84 ERA in five appearances. And this Red Sox lineup is considerably stronger than the A’s lineup hit Gonzales for four runs in six innings.
23-8 IN LAST 31 BOS ML PICKS | +1326
PHILADELPHIA -186
ATLANTA @ PHILADELPHIA | 3/28 | 3:05 PM EDT
2:58 PM
The new-look Phillies face a familiar foe in Julio Teheran and the Braves. For all the changed faces in Phillies’ lineup, most of them have seen Teheran often. Bryce Harper has six homers and 16 RBI in just 30 at-bats against him. Meanwhile, Braves hitters haven’t been particularly strong against Aaron Nola -- the entire lineup is a combined .237 against him lifetime. Look for the Harper era to get off to a good start in Philly.
17-4 IN LAST 21 ATL ML PICKS | +1544
14-4 IN LAST 18 PHI ML PICKS | +1046
Adam Thompson is a thoughtful, Midwestern-based handicapper who destroyed sportsbooks with his MLB picks in 2018. SportsLine's top MLB handicapper hit on 61 percent of his money line picks all season for a profit of $4,062 to $100 players (+$3,655, 60 percent for all picks), ending the season on a 22-4 run, including 100 percent on World Series games. He's also run red-hot streaks in the NFL and college football. Previously the award-winning sports editor of the Green Bay Press-Gazette, Adam spent nearly 20 years covering the NFL, MLB, NBA and major college sports.
__________________
Cal Sports
3% [CBB] (657) Texas Tech at (658) Michigan
Time: 9:39 PM EDT Total Under 126.5 (-110)
Analysis:
3% UNDER Texas Tech/ Michigan
__________________
goodfella
3*goy
oregon +9
Added
2*
tampa bay rays +1.5
__________________
Sleepyj
3*
Michigan / Texas Tech Under 126
__________________
JR ODONNELL
3*
Virginia-8.5
__________________
King creole
2*
Denver Nuggets / Houston Rockets under 218
__________________
Fezzik
2*
St.louis -100
3*
Season Wins
Cubs UNDER 88 wins, 3 stars best bet (fine to play UNDER 87.5)
__________________
Ben Burns
3*GOM
Toronto -143
__________________
Stephen Nover
3*
Gonzaga / Florida St. Under 147
2*
Washington -127
__________________
CAL SPORTS BASKETBALL PLAYS
Game: (657) Texas Tech at (658) Michigan
Date/Time: Mar 28 2019 9:39 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Total Under 126.5 (-110)
View Analysis
3% UNDER Texas Tech/ Michigan
Game: (667) LSU at (668) Michigan State
Date/Time: Mar 29 2019 7:09 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Michigan State -6.0 (-110)
View Analysis
4% Michigan St -6 LSU
Game: (669) Virginia Tech at (670) Duke
Date/Time: Mar 29 2019 9:39 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Total Under 144.5 (-110)
View Analysis
3% UNDER Virginia Tech/ Duke
__________________
Stephen Oh
UNDER 232.5 L.A. CLIPPERS @ MILWAUKEE | 3/28 | 8:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 8:42 PM
My data sees the Bucks and Clippers combining for approximately 224 points Thursday, providing value on the Under against the hefty total. The Bucks are on a 4-1 run to the Under, while the Clippers have played Under in right of their past 10 road games against opponents with winning records.
86-64 IN LAST 150 NBA PICKS | +1621
2-1 IN LAST 3 LAC O/U PICKS | +90
OVER 218 DENVER @ HOUSTON | 3/28 | 8:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 8:38 PM
My projections see the Rockets and Nuggets putting up at least 223 combined points Thursday, clearing the Over with room to spare. The Over is on a 4-1 run in this series and the Nuggets have played Over in four straight following a straight-up defeat. Houston is on a 4-1 Over spurt against winning opponents.
86-64 IN LAST 150 NBA PICKS | +1621
4-0 IN LAST 4 DEN O/U PICKS | +400
L.A. DODGERS -155
ARIZONA @ L.A. DODGERS | 3/28 | 4:10 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 3:18 PM
No Clayton Kershaw (shoulder) on the hill for Los Angeles, but Hyun-Jin Ryu is a more than adequate replacement as he comes off a career-best 2018 campaign that included an ERA of 1.97. With Paul Goldschmidt now in St. Louis and Steven Souza Jr. (knee) out for the year for the D'Backs, that lineup isn't very potent. My simulations like the Dodgers to win this one 70 percent of the time, making them a great value on the money line in this opener.
19-12 IN LAST 31 ARI ML PICKS | +815
19-12 IN LAST 31 LAD ML PICKS | +434
GONZAGA -7
FLORIDA ST. VS GONZAGA | 3/28 | 7:09 PM EDT
SUN 3/24
I'm projecting a double-digit win for the Zags in the Sweet 16, despite FSU's impressive seven-game win streak. Gonzaga averages just under 89 points per game, most in the nation, and has put up 87 and 83 in the NCAA Tournament thus far. Look for the Zags to get to 80 again and cover.
5-3 IN LAST 8 CBB ATS PICKS | +161
__________________
Adam Thompson
BALTIMORE +285
BALTIMORE @ N.Y. YANKEES | 3/28 | 1:05 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 2:57 PM
The powerful Yankees, the World Series favorites, against the downtrodden and destined for futility Orioles. And yet … Andrew Cashner wasn’t good last year, but he was decent against the Yankees, including a one-run, six-inning effort in his second start. He was successful against New York’s top sluggers, too. Masahiro Tanaka is 0-2 with a 9.49 ERA in three career Opening Day starts, and last year was much better away from Yankee Stadium. The Orioles’ starting lineup has hit as many homers off Tanaka in 64 career at-bats than the Yankees’ one has against Cashner in 164. Baltimore won 53 fewer games than New York in 2018, but went 5-4 at Yankee Stadium. If you’re going to take a crazy flyer on Opening Day, this isn’t a bad one.
11-0 IN LAST 11 BAL ML PICKS | +1120
14-9 IN LAST 23 NYY ML PICKS | +385
WASHINGTON -141
N.Y. METS @ WASHINGTON | 3/28 | 1:05 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 1:01 PM
Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer is about as good as it gets on the hill. They cancel each other out. So now you shift focus to the bullpen, and the Nationals are deeper and stronger there. They’re also projected to have the stronger Opening Day lineup. And they’re at home. Remember, deGrom had one of the best individual pitching seasons in MLB history last year, and finished with a 10-9 record, including 10 no-decisions when he allowed one run or less. Even if the Mets’ batting is better this year, it’s not likely to show on Thursday against Scherzer. New York’s lineup is .195 against him lifetime.
6-1 IN LAST 7 WAS ML PICKS | +545
9-3 IN LAST 12 NYM ML PICKS | +506
__________________
baseball33
Los Angeles Dodgers - Arizona Diamondbacks
Los Angeles Dodgers -1
__________________
Paul Leiner
2500* Michigan -1.5
500* Tennessee -1.5
__________________
The Action Network
Braves/Phils Over 8
Yankees/Orioles Over 9
Angels ML F5
Twins/Indians Under 7 1/2 and Under 4 F5
Astros -135
Padres -109
Cardinals -110
Royals -110
__________________
Tom Fornelli
SAN FRANCISCO +105
SAN FRANCISCO @ SAN DIEGO | 3/28 | 4:10 PM EDT
9:13 AM
Madison Bumgarner is not quite Madison Bumgarner anymore. His K-rate has fallen each of the last two seasons, from a peak of 27.5% in 2016 to only 19.8% last season. That's not a good trend. One thing that hasn't fallen off for MadBum, though, is his dominance over the Padres. In 32 career starts (a full season's worth) he has a 3.23 ERA against the Pads, and has held current San Diego hitters to an OPS of .595 and a wOBA of .260 in 128 plate appearances. There's value on the Giants moneyline here.
3-1 IN LAST 4 SF ML PICKS | +224
5-2 IN LAST 7 SD ML PICKS | +214
L.A. DODGERS -160
ARIZONA @ L.A. DODGERS | 3/28 | 4:10 PM EDT
9:02 AM
As division rivals, these two teams see one another quite often, and that hasn't always been good news for Arizona starter Zack Greinke. Current Dodgers hitters have 221 career plate appearances against Greinke, and they've tagged him pretty good, posting an OPS of .883 and a wOBA of .371. Greinke also has a home run rate of 5.9% against these Dodgers hitters, which is more than twice his career HR% of 2.5%.
5-3 IN LAST 8 ARI ML PICKS | +163
2-1 IN LAST 3 LAD ML PICKS | +100
TEXAS TECH +1.5
TEXAS TECH VS MICHIGAN | 3/28 | 9:39 PM EDT
8:58 AM
According to KenPom, these are the two best defensive teams in the country. That seems to make the Under an enticing play, but I think this total is a little too accurate, and I don't see much value on either side of it. I do like the Raiders to cover this small spread, however, because they're somewhat similar to the Michigan State team that's handed Michigan three losses this year. I think Tech wins this game just under half the time, so I like the value I get with the 1.5 points.
22-11-2 IN LAST 35 CBB O/U PICKS | +957
2-1 IN LAST 3 TXTECH ATS PICKS | +85
LSU +6
LSU VS MICHIGAN ST. | 3/29 | 7:09 PM EDT
TUE 3/26
Michigan State has been one of the best teams in the country all season long, and it's currently ranked No. 3 by KenPom, ahead of even Duke. Still, as good as it's been, it's overly dependent on Cassius Winston offensively at time, particularly as a ball-handler. LSU has been good at forcing turnovers on defense this season, and I think it will have some success pressuring Winston and forcing him to give up the ball, and forcing MSU into turning the ball over more than it wants to. That will help keep the Tigers in this game, and within this number.
22-11-2 IN LAST 35 CBB O/U PICKS | +957
2-1 IN LAST 3 LSU ATS PICKS | +84
__________________
Rocky Atkinson
2* nba
Philly -7.5
tor -10.5
3* Det -3.5
All Nba
__________________
SEABASS
MLB
ALL 200
Cards, Tigers & Rangers
FP Yanks Over
__________________
WORLD WORST PICKER
MLB
Regular Plays
Detroit Tigers
Tampa Bay Rays
__________________
EdwardMLB
Colorado Rockies -1
__________________