Friday 3/22/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for Friday's NCAAB, NHL & NBA games.
Tim Michael NCAAB:
Pick: Virginia Tech
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Teddy Covers NCAAB:
Pick: Arizona St.
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Marc Lawrence NBA:
Pick: LA Clippers
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Platinum Plays
Free Pick: the Houston Rockets -6
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Kenny Towers
FREE PLAY FOR FRIDAY - ORLANDO UNDER 208.5
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Golden Dragon
Denver -11 NBA
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Huddle Up Sports
Free Play: Creighton -4'
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Vegas Steam Line
Your free winner for Friday: NORTH CAROLINA -22.5
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John Anthony Sports
Early Friday's Free Selection: Memphis Tigers + 4 1/2
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Totals4U
Virginia over 129 1/2
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#1 Sports
Virginia - 21 1/2
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Hawkeye Sports
Early Friday's Free Pick: Drake - 5
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Razor Sharp
MISS ST OVER 133
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Arthur Ralph
Kansas St - 4 1/2
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Nevada Sharpshooter
WASHINGTON / UTAH ST OVER 135
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Mike Wynn
Free Play: NBA Orlando -6½
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High Stakes Syndicate
Free Selection for Early Friday: Virginia Cavaliers - 21 1/2
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Easy Money Sports
Mississippi -1
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Atlantic Sports
Washington Capitols - 160
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R and R Totals
NCAA Basketball TEXAS TECH UNDER 137
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Team Underground (1-2 THIS WEEK)
NCAA Basketball LIBERTY +6.5
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Steve Janus
Mar 22 '19, 1:30 PM in 5h
NCAA-B | Northern Kentucky vs Texas Tech
Play on: Northern Kentucky +13 -105 at Bovada
1* Free Sharp Play on Northern Kentucky +13 -105
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Bryan Leonard
Mar 22 '19, 3:10 PM in 6h
NCAA-B | Gardner-Webb vs Virginia
Play on: Virginia -23½ -104 at Pinnacle
802 Gardner Webb & Virginia
Because Virginia hasn't fared as well as expected in the Big Dance we are getting nice value on the far superior team. The country as a whole knows the Cavaliers are the only #1 seed to ever lose to a #16 seed. Therefore small sample sizes and recentcy bias help us with the number here.
Gardner Webb allows opponents to take 45% of its shots from long range, and Virginia makes 40.9% of its shots from beyond the 3 point line. The underdog does attempt 43% of its shots at the rim, Virginia only allows teams to take 31.8% of its shots from close range. Virginia has a huge advantage in rebounding in this game. So fewer shots overall and less shots specifically for the underdog.
PLAY VIRGINIA
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Joseph D'Amico
Mar 22 '19, 3:10 PM in 6h
NCAA-B | Gardner-Webb vs Virginia
Play on: Virginia -21½ -111 at Pinnacle
This is the MOST-EXPLOSIVE Big Dance Opening Round I have ever put out. Friday, I have my NCAAB 56-25 LAS VEGAS STRIP MOVE, 27-5-1 TEN DIMES, 81% POWERHOUSE, elite HIGH ROLLER, 75% MONEYMAKER, and my coveted, 35-19 SLAM DUNK WINNERS. Be on them all and start your Big Dance off right.
Friday's FREE NCAAB TOURNEY WINNER: Virginia Cavaliers.
Game 802.
12:10 pm pst.
Expect the top-seeded Cavaliers to take no prisoners here after LY's, historic, 1st Rd loss. Virginia was the first #1 seed to lose to a #16 last March in their embarrassing, 74-54 crushing defeat at the hands of UMBC. Garner Webb showed signs of greatness this season with wins over Georgia Tech and Wake Forest. However, playing Virginia is a whole different animal. Look for the Cavaliers to come out here and make a statement, especially after their last outing, a 10-point loss to the Seminoles. Virginia is 20-8 ATS the L28 non-conference games, 14-3 ATS the L17 games played following an ATS loss, and 43-18-1 ATS the L62 overall games. Take the Cavaliers. Thank you.
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Bobby Conn
Mar 22 '19, 6:07 PM in 9h
MLB | Orioles vs Blue Jays
Play on: Orioles +133 at GTBets
1* Free Play on Orioles +133
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Sal Michaels
Mar 22 '19, 6:50 PM in 10h
NCAA-B | Washington vs Utah State
Play on: Washington +3 -105 at YouWager
Free Play on Washington +3 -105
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Will Rogers
Mar 22 '19, 7:08 PM in 10h
NHL | Wild vs Capitals
Play on: UNDER 6 -105
The set-up: I think the “under” is worth a second look in this one. The Wild are off a 3-1 home loss to Colorado, while the Capitals are off a 5-4 OT loss to Tampa at home. The Wild are in a dog fight with the Avs for the final playoff spot in the West, so their latest setback was clearly a poor one. The Wild come in desperate here in fact as they’ve lost five of their last six (and it’s been their offense to blame, posting only 11 total goals over its last six games.) Minnesota is 19-17 on the road, averaging 2.78 goals and allowing 2.81 in those contests. The Capitals are 21-15 at home. averaging 3.53 goals and allowing 2.86.
The pick: Minnesota goaltender Devan Dubnyk is 17-13 with a 2.51 GAA on the road, while Washington net minder Braden Holtby is 14-12 with a 2.80 GAA at home. Take it for what you will as well, but Minnesota has seen the total go “under” the number in seven of eight this year after playing three straight home games, while Washington has seen the total go “under” in six of its last eight home games following an OT loss in which it allowed five or more goals in. Consider the “under” in this one.
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Mark Wilson
Mar 22 '19, 7:10 PM in 10h
NCAA-B | North Dakota State vs Duke
Play on: OVER 149 -102
Free Play on North Dakota State vs Duke over 149 -102
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Doug Upstone
Mar 22 '19, 7:27 PM in 11h
NCAA-B | Liberty vs Mississippi State
Play on: Mississippi State -6 -110 at BMaker
On Friday in March Madness, Play Against an underdog like LIBERTY off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of six points or more, a top-level team (80% or higher win ptc.), playing a team with a winning record. In the last 22 years, teams like Liberty in this spot are 9-33 ATS.
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Hunter Price
Mar 22 '19, 9:20 PM in 12h
NCAA-B | Iona vs North Carolina
Play on: Iona +23 -105 at Bovada
1* Free Pick on Iona +23 -105
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Jimmy Boyd
Mar 22 '19, 9:40 PM in 13h
NCAA-B | UCF vs VCU
Play on: UCF -1 -105 at BMaker
1* Free NCAAB Pick on UCF Knights -1
I have a really hard time seeing UCF lose this game and that makes them an easy play with the line basically at pick'em. I just think this is a really bad matchup for VCU's struggling offense and while UCF isn't an offensive juggernaut, they are a pretty efficient offensive team.
The Rams enter the NCAA Tournament ranked 173rd in offensive efficiency and are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the nation. VCU is 331st in the country in 3-point percentage offense.
UCF's is a team built around 7'6 big man Tacko Fall, who averages 2.5 blocks/game and effects a lot more shots than that. So if VCU can't shoot the 3 and don't figure to get many good looks in the paint, that leaves a lot of bad long/contested jump shots.
Fall is more of an anchor on defense than an offensive threat, but that's fine. The Knights have a dynamic 1-2 backcourt with B.J. Taylor and Aubrey Dawkins. The two combine for more than 30 ppg and both shoot lights out from behind the 3-point line.
I'm not saying the Knights will light up the scoreboard against a really good VCU defense, I just think UCF will have the much easier time finding quality looks at the basket. Reminds me a lot of when the Rams played Virginia earlier in the year and managed just 49 points and shot 29.5% from the field. Take UCF!
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Brandon Lee
Mar 22 '19, 9:57 PM in 13h
NCAA-B | St. Louis vs Virginia Tech
Play on: St. Louis +10½ -110 at Mirage
10* FREE NCAAB PICK (St Louis +10.5)
I'll take my chances here with St Louis as a double-digit dog, as I just feel there's too much value with this number to not take a shot. I think we are seeing inflation on the number because of the big news that Va Tech is going to get back point guard Justin Robinson. Also you have a St. Louis team that wouldn't have made the tournament had they not won the A-10 Tournament.
One thing the Billikens do have is momentum, as they just knocked off 3 of the top 4 teams (Dayton, Davidson and St. Bonaventure) in the Atlantic 10 in route to that automatic bid. There's also plenty to like about this St Louis team. They not only have Power 5 athletes on their roster, this a team that is built around a gritty man-to-man defense that can really protect the rim.
I think they have the talent to slow down the big playmakers of Virginia Tech in Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Kerry Blackshear. I also think there's a decent chance that Robinson doesn't impact the game as much as people think. The guy hasn't played since January and you have to wonder if he didn't rush back before he was fully healthy. Robinson really mixes up the roles and I just don't like big chemistry changes this late in the year, especially on this stage. Give me St Louis +10.5!
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Tim Michael
Mar 22 '19, 9:57 PM in 13h
NCAA-B | St. Louis vs Virginia Tech
Play on: Virginia Tech -10 -107 at Pinnacle
T.M. Selection: Virginia Tech (FREE PLAY)
It’s the No. 13 seed Saint Louis Billikens vs. the No. 4 seed Virginia Tech Hokies on Friday night and in my opinion, all signs point to a blowout victory for the favorite here. Saint Louis had a poor regular season, but it put it all together during the Conference Tournament, eventually winning the title 55-53 over Saint Bonaventure, exacting revenge from a loss in its regular season finale to the Bonnies. VT finished No. 4 in the ACC with a 12-6 record and had impressive non-conference victories over the likes of Purdue and Washington. I have a hard time seeing Saint Louis keeping pace offensively today, as the Billikens average just 102.6 points per 100 possessions. Saint Louis allows only 96.3 points per 100 possessions, but that unit is going to be tested by the Hokies’ high-flying offense which averages 118.4 points per 100 possessions, and with a suffocating defense which concedes only 94.0 points per 100 possessions. I’m banking on the Billikens coming back down to Earth here after their unlikely Conference Tournament title victory. Consider Virginia Tech on Friday night.
T.M. Prediction: 70-56 Hokies.
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Bob Valentino
Not at all a believer in the Washington Huskies, nor the Pacific Twelve Conference in general this season.
Washington claimed the regular season conference crown, but could not sew up the automatic bid, as the Huskies lost to the cooking Oregon Ducks by a lopsided, 68-48 score in the title game. Those 48 points have raised a "red flag" for me in backing this team from Seattle, as Mike Hopkins' team was also held to 47 points against the same Ducks in the regular season finale, and come into this game in Columbus with just a 69.8 points per game scoring average.
Utah State will need to contend with the 2-3 defense that Hopkins - who is a former Syracuse assistant - likes to employ, but this is an Aggies team that scored the basketball at 79 points per game this season. Utah State also grabbed a full 8 rebounds per game more than the weak-boarding Huskies (just 28.3 rebounds per game). Not only that, but Utah State does average over 17 assists per game which ranks in the Top-Ten nationally, so those additional passes are likely to yield plenty of open looks against the 2-3 zone.
The Aggies come into this first round game with 10 straight wins, and wins in 17 of their last 18 overall, while covering in 7 of their last 9 contests. Meanwhile the Huskies come in with just a 4-3 straight up mark their last 7 games. and a 1-6 against the spread mark in those 7 games.
A look at State's pre-conference slate shows losses to both Houston and Arizona State, but a 17-point win over another Big Dance team in St. Mary's. The Aggs are led by the Mountain West Player of the Year, Sam Merrill who averages over 21 points per game. They also have a rim-protector in the paint in 6' 10" Neemias Queta who grabs close to 9 rebounds per game to go along with his almost 12 points per game.
With the geographical distance between the schools marginal at best, I am sure the "little brother" from the Mountain West would love to step up and beat the "big brother" from the Pac 12! Based on the line the oddsmakers have posted on this game, not only do I think that can happen, so does Vegas.
Go with Utah State.
4* UTAH STATE
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Dwayne Connors
I do believe that this line on Virginia Tech is a bit inflated - likely in part because Hokies guard Justin Robinson is finally expected to be back in the lineup with a clean bill of health. Robinson last played on January 30th, so the real question is even though he is back, just how effective is his going to be? One thing for certain, Robinson will at least add to the depth of the Hokies rotation, and that is never a bad thing.
St. Louis is enjoying a hot run - 4 straight A-10 wins - to cop the automatic conference bid in what I thought was a rather weak conference. The Billikins will face a stiffer challenge in meeting up with one of the elite conference's in the land, as the ACC placed 3 of their teams on the # 1 seed line, and saw Florida State advance on Thursday,
The Bills did play a pair of out-of-conference games against the ACC, losing to both Pittsburgh and Florida State, and I see them falling in this spot to the Hokies in San Jose.
Virginia Tech's Kerry Blackshear goes 6' 10" and is a double-double marhine (8 of them during the regular season) that will be a real matchup issue for St. Louis tonight.
The Billikins defense is their calling card, as they have limited the opposition to just 63.7 points per game, but the Hokies are every bit as stingy on the stop end, as they allow 62.1 points per game.
It's been a nice run to get to this point for Travis Ford's team, but I think the end of the road comes in this game at the SAP Center on Friday night.
With their team leader Robinson back on the court, look for the Hokies to go on a run and take this game in a big way.
Gobblers for the cover.
3* VIRGINIA TECH
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Bob Valentino
After coming back from double-digits down and beating LeBron James and his Los Angeles Lakers 124-123 on St. Patrick's Day, the Knicks have gone back to being the usual door mat they have been this season, as they have lost by 36 points at Toronto, and by 21 points at home to Utah on Wednesday night.
For New York, that is loss # 10 of their last 11, and they have covered just 3 times in those 11 games, so even though they are getting double-digits at home this evening, chances they cover do not appear good.
It doesn't matter to me that Denver just played last night in Washington, it will only be a matter of time before one of the elite teams in the West, heck, in all of the NBA puts the pedal-to-the-metal and leaves the Knickerbockers in their wake.
Denver just won at Washington last night, as they made it 5 wins in a row, and while they failed to cover the impost, the Nuggets are in a dogfight with the Golden State Warriors for the # 1 seed in the Western Conference and come into tonight's meeting at Madison Square Garden 1/2 game behind the Warriors for that slot.
The Nuggets have been the straight up winner in 7 of the last 8 series meetings with the Knickerbockers, and they have also been the spread winner in 6 of the last 8 series meetings versus the lowly New Yorkers.
Denver does have a Sunday stop at Indiana before they fly back to Colorado for a Tuesday home date with Detroit. The Nuggets will then head back out on the road for a pair of tough Western Conference meetings in Houston and Oklahoma City, so even though this is the second in as many night on the road, this is also the easiest game on the schedule in a while for the Nuggets.
I say go ahead and lay it, as the Nuggets keep pace with the idle Warriors.
2* DENVER
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Rob Vinceletti
Rob V: NCAAB Comp Play
UC Irvine vs. Kansas State, 03/22/2019 14:00 EDT
Point Spread: +5/-125 UC Irvine
Sportsbook:
BetOnline
Friday tournament card has the Round 1 Play of the Year along with an Exclusive Late TIER 1 side and 3 more Best bets and our #1 ranked NBA. Afternoon NCAAB Comp play below
The NCAAB Tournament comp play is on UC. Irvine at 2:00 eastern plus the 4-5 points. The Ant eaters have won 16 straight and have covered 6 of 6 off a win of 20 or more. They return all 5 starters from last season and in NCAAB Tournament play teams with 5 returning starters are 5-0 straight up vs teams that win less than 85% of their games.. Kansas St has failed to cover 6 of 7 vs non conference teams and 6 of 8 vs .800 or better opponents. With or without Dean Wade we are taking the points here with Cal Irvine. On Friday we have our Round 1 Play of the year backed with a 100% System, an Exclusive Executive Level TIER 1 Side and 3 more tournament power system plays. We are ranked #1 in NBA This year and we have a late night power play. We continue to cash out in hoops. RV- GC Sports
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Brian Bitler
Brian’s 9* CBB Straight Shooter
Oregon vs. Wisconsin, 03/22/2019 16:30 EDT
Money Line: -135 Wisconsin
Sportsbook:
Bodog
All the talk leading up to the big dance were on a few teams and Oregon is one of them and I personally love to go against the trendy bracket pick. Wisconsin has been very good all year and slipped at the end of the season. This line is moving the other way as the money is 50/50 but the big bettors have come down with Wisconsin. Love the Badgers here to win straight.
Invest 9 units on Wisconsin rotation #826
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Tony Karpinski
FREE PLAY FRIDAY
Ohio State vs. Iowa State, 03/22/2019 21:50 EDT
Point Spread: +5½/-110 Ohio State
Sportsbook:
BetOnline
The muddled Ohio St. defense will keep this young Iowa State from getting the ball downcourt the way they want to. I think Iowa St is very tired and should not be favored here in this one. Throughout conference play it was clear that the Big Ten was head and shoulders over the Big 12. One of the teams that never could clear its own hurdle was Iowa State. In fact, to wrap up the regular season the Cyclones had lost six of their last eight games and being young they do not have the experience for a gritty tough Ohio St team here in tournament play. I'm backing OHIO ST as our Friday free pick plus the points tonight.
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Vegas Investment Picks
NCAA Basketball BUFFALO BULLS ‑4.5
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DIY Sports Betting Systems
NCAA Basketball IOWA HAWKEYES +190
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DONNY ACTION
NCAA Basketball OHIO STATE BUCKEYES/IOWA STATE CYCLONES u140
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