Wednesday 3/20/19 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for Wednesday’s NCAAB, NHL & NBA games.
Michael Rusk
N. DAKOTA ST. -5.5
NC CENTRAL VS N. DAKOTA ST. | 3/20 | 6:40 PM EDT
North Dakota State is no stranger to the tournament, as the Bison are appearing for the third time in six years. They're riding a four-game win streak, two of those when dressing up as underdogs. North Dakota State plays a much tougher schedule within the Summit League than NC Central plays in the MEAC. And the Bison will have had four extra days' rest. Look for the Biston to push the pace and cover.
29-18 IN LAST 47 CBB PICKS | +886
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Kenny White
ARIZONA ST. -1
ST. JOHN'S VS ARIZONA ST. | 3/20 | 9:10 PM EDT
The Sun Devils have been a little up and down but they did beat Mississippi State, Utah State and Kansas early in the year. They also won six of their last eight games with the two losses coming to Oregon, one on the road and the other in overtime during the conference tournament. ASU's offense ranks 68th and their defense 79th. St. John's beat VCU, Villanova and Marquette twice but the Red Storm played one of the worst non-conference schedules in the country to build a 12-0 record. The Johnnies' offense ranks 69th and their defense ranks 111th. The Sun Devils will hold a big advantage in getting to the free throw line. They love to drive the lane and they play solid position defense. Lay the small number. My projection: Arizona State 80 - Saint John's 74
16-7 IN LAST 23 CBB PICKS | +802
2-1 IN LAST 3 STJOHN ATS PICKS | +91
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Adam Thompson
SEATTLE +110
SEATTLE VS OAKLAND | 3/20 | 5:35 AM EDT
Seattle blew its roster up in the off-season, but is that a bad thing? The Mariners were the worst-hitting contender in baseball. Spring has gone better than expected, and they have some edges against the favored A's. Oakland's power-hungry lineup is most-successful when it hits homers, and Marco Gonzales doesn't give many up -- he allowed four two-HR games in 29 starts last year. The A's lineup is a lifetime .182 against Marco as he enters his age 27 year. Seattle will have the crowd behind it thanks to Ichiro, who will start. Mike Fiers had a 5.21 ERA away from home in 2018 for Oakland, and allowed 11 runs in 14.2 innings vs. Seattle. It's worth an Opening Day flyer on the underdog.
Adam Thompson is a thoughtful, Midwestern-based handicapper who destroyed sportsbooks with his MLB picks in 2018. SportsLine's top MLB handicapper hit on 61 percent of his money line picks all season for a profit of $4,062 to $100 players (+$3,655, 60 percent for all picks), ending the season on a 22-4 run, including 100 percent on World Series games. He's also run red-hot streaks in the NFL and college football. Previously the award-winning sports editor of the Green Bay Press-Gazette, Adam spent nearly 20 years covering the NFL, MLB, NBA and major college sports.
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Vegas Wolf
713 asu -1 2%
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Greg Shaker
1*
St. John's / Ariz. St over 152
3*
N. Dakota St / N.C. Central under 135
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Sleepyj
3*
N. Dakota St / N.C. Central Under 132.5
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JR ODONNELL
3*GOM
Miami +6.5
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Ken Thomson
1*
W.Virginia -4.5
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Stephen Nover
3*
Washington -2
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Dave essler
3*
Grand Canyon +5
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Ben Burns
3*
St. John's +1.5
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Rocky Atkinson
3*
NC Central +5
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Stephen Nover's NIT Spread Crusher - 25-7-1 Run!
Sam Houston State vs. TCU, 03/20/2019 21:00 EDT,
Point Spread: +13½/-110 Sam Houston State
Sportsbook: BetOnline
Don't sleep on Sam Houston State. The Bearkats will be far more motivated for this NIT matchup than Texas Christian. The Horned Frogs had their sights set on the NCAA Tournament. But a blown 12-point lead in a loss to Kansas State in the Big 12 Conference Tournament doomed TCU's NCAA chances.
It's hard to imagine TCU getting up for this matchup. The Horned Frogs have failed to cover in six of their last seven home games.
TCU finished its regular season 3-7. Sam Houston State is 17-3 in its last 20 games. The Bearkats have covered nine of their last 11 road contests and also are 10-4 ATS during their past 14 non-conference matchups. They also are a far betting free throw shooting team than TCU.
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CleInsidersports
MLB Spring Training (Leans only, for those that want MLB action) 25-9 74%
Royals +1.5 (-150)
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Scott Spreitzer’s CBB
4-Arizona State -2
3- UAB +1
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Rockdeman Sports
(CBB Underdog of the Day) - Sam Houston State +13
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Stats Analytics Sports
NBA 129-115 (53% +8.82 units)
Top Play - 3* Utah Jazz -12
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Derek Hayes (CBB)
$100 Grand Canyon +5
$100 DePaul -6.5
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Adam Rompin Thompson
PHILADELPHIA -2.5
BOSTON @ PHILADELPHIA | 3/20 | 7:00 PM EDT
11:57 AM
The Celtics are allowing 50.2 percent shooting over their last five games. Philly is on a five-game win streak in which it's averaged 116.6 points per game. This is a game the 76ers have had circled for weeks. Even though they're on the second night of a back-to-back, Joel Embiid will be fresh after sitting out at Charlotte. Lay the small number.
50-37-1 IN LAST 88 NBA ATS PICKS | +928
43-29-1 IN LAST 73 BOS ATS PICKS | +1144
40-32 IN LAST 72 PHI ATS PICKS | +548
CLEVELAND +9.5
MILWAUKEE @ CLEVELAND | 3/20 | 7:00 PM EDT
11:18 AM
The Cavs have been dynamite at home lately, beating the Pistons, Raptors and Magic in their last three outings at Quicken Loans Arena. With the Bucks on the second night of a back-to-back, grab the points.
50-37-1 IN LAST 88 NBA ATS PICKS | +928
24-16-1 IN LAST 41 MIL ATS PICKS | +643
14-11 IN LAST 25 CLE ATS PICKS | +226
SAN ANTONIO -6.5
MIAMI @ SAN ANTONIO | 3/20 | 8:30 PM EDT
11:10 AM
The Spurs have won nine straight and I don't think they'll suffer a letdown after their big win over Golden State. Back San Antonio to cover its seventh straight overall and to improve to 11-2 ATS in its last 13 matchups with the Heat.
50-37-1 IN LAST 88 NBA ATS PICKS | +928
20-13 IN LAST 33 MIA ATS PICKS | +588
3-2 IN LAST 5 SA ATS PICKS | +72
DALLAS +10
DALLAS @ PORTLAND | 3/20 | 10:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 11:57 PM
This is too many points to give a Dallas team that's beaten Portland twice this season. With CJ McCollum still sidelined, look for a relatively close game and take the points.
50-37-1 IN LAST 88 NBA ATS PICKS | +928
11-8 IN LAST 19 DAL ATS PICKS | +214
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Michael Dawn to Dusk Rusk
UNDER 144 BUTLER @ NEBRASKA | 3/20 | 9:00 PM EDT
9:21 AM
The public is driving this total up due to the fact the majority of bettors prefer placing action on the over as opposed to the Under in a game of fast-paced buckets. This total is exceptionally high for two teams that are within conferences that rely on their defense. Nebraska is in the top 50 for defensive scoring, and Vegas hasn’t set a total for them Over the 140 in 12 out of the last 13 games. Look for the Cornhuskers defensive efficiency to be the main reason why this total stays well below the mark.
30-18 IN LAST 48 CBB PICKS | +986
MARQUETTE -4
MURRAY ST. VS MARQUETTE | 3/21 | 4:30 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 1:31 PM
Sure, Ja Morant is going to go top three in the NBA draft this June. Does Murray State deserved to be hyped up this much due to one player? No. This line is a gift. Marquette has been a top-25 team this entire year and is led by scoring machine Markus Howard, who edges out Morant in points per game. Marquette’s length will disrupt Murray State immensely, and its three-point shooting, which ranks top-10 in the country, will be a huge problem. Marquette rolls on.
30-18 IN LAST 48 CBB PICKS | +986
2-1 IN LAST 3 MARQET ATS PICKS | +85
UNDER 131.5 BAYLOR VS SYRACUSE | 3/21 | 9:57 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 1:28 PM
Both of these teams have been struggling offensively as of late, combining to lose seven out of their last eight games. Both rank outside the top 150 in points per game, and I don’t see Syracuse’s zone helping this cause. Sure this game will be close, but Syracuse will disrupt the Bears' offense. Can’t overthink this one. The Under is going to hit.
30-18 IN LAST 48 CBB PICKS | +986
AUBURN -6
NEW MEXICO ST. VS AUBURN | 3/21 | 1:30 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 1:26 PM
This line seems trappy within the classic 5-12 matchup. There are a few reasons why I feel Auburn takes this in a rout: Strength of schedule is a huge indicator and New Mexico has lost its only top 25 matchup while losing to some other not-so-impressive teams. Auburn has put up a 26-9 record within the SEC, and just beat Tennessee for a second time this season to secure the title. What a perfect time to be hot. Auburn takes this one handily.
30-18 IN LAST 48 CBB PICKS | +986
N. DAKOTA ST. -5.5
NC CENTRAL VS N. DAKOTA ST. | 3/20 | 6:40 PM EDT
MON 3/18
North Dakota State is no stranger to the tournament, as the Bison are appearing for the third time in six years. They're riding a four-game win streak, two of those when dressing up as underdogs. North Dakota State plays a much tougher schedule within the Summit League than NC Central plays in the MEAC. And the Bison will have had four extra days' rest. Look for the Biston to push the pace and cover.
30-18 IN LAST 48 CBB PICKS | +986
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Stephen Oh
UNDER 216.5 HOUSTON @ MEMPHIS | 3/20 | 8:00 PM EDT
Since starting the season 11-14, the Rockets have been one of the top defensive teams in the NBA. And entering Tuesday night's game at Atlanta, the Under has cashed in seven of Houston's last eight games. Memphis, meanwhile, has been an Under bettor's dream this season, with the Under cashing in 40 of 70 games.
81-58 IN LAST 139 NBA PICKS | +1785
7-1 IN LAST 8 MEM O/U PICKS | +590
UNDER 167.5 C. MICHIGAN @ DEPAUL | 3/20 | 8:00 PM EDT
This total has actually gone up since it opened at 166. I think that's because the Over has cashed in DePaul's last four games and in four of Central Michigan's last five games. But even if these teams hit their scoring average for the season, the total would still be only 160. My model is saying just 155 points are scored. Take the Under.
3-1 IN LAST 4 CBB ATS PICKS | +186
LOUISVILLE -5
MINNESOTA VS LOUISVILLE | 3/21 | 12:15 PM EDT
The Cardinals are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games versus the Big Ten, and I see t them covering the spread in more than 60 percent of simulations. Minnesota has lost eight of its past 13 games and just got humiliated by Michigan in the Big Ten tourney. Lay the points.
3-1 IN LAST 4 CBB ATS PICKS | +186
2-1 IN LAST 3 LVILLE ATS PICKS | +88
MARQUETTE -4
MURRAY ST. VS MARQUETTE | 3/21 | 4:30 PM EDT
I'm projecting a double-digit Golden Eagles win; this line is short. Back Marquette, which came within a basket of reaching the Big East final, to improve to 5-0 ATS in its last five non-conference games.
3-1 IN LAST 4 CBB ATS PICKS | +186
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Mike Barner
DALLAS +10
DALLAS @ PORTLAND | 3/20 | 10:00 PM EDT
This seems like an awfully large spread considering C.J. McCollum (knee) is out. The Mavericks are playing out the string, but each of their last six losses has been by nine points or fewer. That included a one-point loss on the road versus the Nuggets and a one-point loss at home to the Rockets. I don’t think they win, but I’ll take the points.
48-32-3 IN LAST 83 NBA ATS PICKS | +1251
9-3 IN LAST 12 POR ATS PICKS | +567
5-3 IN LAST 8 DAL ATS PICKS | +164
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Larry Hartstein
TORONTO +5
TORONTO @ OKLAHOMA CITY | 3/20 | 9:30 PM EDT
The Raptors won't have Kyle Lowry, but Fred VanVleet has shined in two games back from his injury absence. OKC might be without Nerlens Noel, a key defender. Grab the points as this one goes down to the wire.
50-37-1 IN LAST 88 NBA ATS PICKS | +928
25-18 IN LAST 43 OKC ATS PICKS | +573
12-9 IN LAST 21 TOR ATS PICKS | +201
PHILADELPHIA -2.5
BOSTON @ PHILADELPHIA | 3/20 | 7:00 PM EDT
The Celtics are allowing 50.2 percent shooting over their last five games. Philly is on a five-game win streak in which it's averaged 116.6 points per game. This is a game the 76ers have had circled for weeks. Even though they're on the second night of a back-to-back, Joel Embiid will be fresh after sitting out at Charlotte. Lay the small number.
50-37-1 IN LAST 88 NBA ATS PICKS | +928
43-29-1 IN LAST 73 BOS ATS PICKS | +1144
40-32 IN LAST 72 PHI ATS PICKS | +548
CLEVELAND +9.5
MILWAUKEE @ CLEVELAND | 3/20 | 7:00 PM EDT
The Cavs have been dynamite at home lately, beating the Pistons, Raptors and Magic in their last three outings at Quicken Loans Arena. With the Bucks on the second night of a back-to-back, grab the points.
50-37-1 IN LAST 88 NBA ATS PICKS | +928
24-16-1 IN LAST 41 MIL ATS PICKS | +643
14-11 IN LAST 25 CLE ATS PICKS | +226
SAN ANTONIO -6.5
MIAMI @ SAN ANTONIO | 3/20 | 8:30 PM EDT
The Spurs have won nine straight and I don't think they'll suffer a letdown after their big win over Golden State. Back San Antonio to cover its seventh straight overall and to improve to 11-2 ATS in its last 13 matchups with the Heat.
50-37-1 IN LAST 88 NBA ATS PICKS | +928
20-13 IN LAST 33 MIA ATS PICKS | +588
3-2 IN LAST 5 SA ATS PICKS | +72
DALLAS +10
DALLAS @ PORTLAND | 3/20 | 10:00 PM EDT
This is too many points to give a Dallas team that's beaten Portland twice this season. With CJ McCollum still sidelined, look for a relatively close game and take the points.
50-37-1 IN LAST 88 NBA ATS PICKS | +928
11-8 IN LAST 19 DAL ATS PICKS | +214
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Micah Roberts
OREGON +1
OREGON VS WISCONSIN | 3/22 | 4:30 PM EDT
I like teams that roll into the NCAA Tournament hot while also playing close to home. Oregon fits the criteria for both riding an eight-game win and cover streak and the Ducks are playing in San Jose. Wisconsin is playing below its rating, just 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games. The Pac-12 doesn't get a lot of credit, but Oregon proved it was the best in the conference. Ducks get the cover.
10-5 IN LAST 15 CBB ATS PICKS | +446
6-1 IN LAST 7 OREG ATS PICKS | +490
4-0 IN LAST 4 WISC ATS PICKS | +400
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From Northcoast group of handicappers:
Accu Picks
NBA
3* #576 San Antonio -6.5
CleInsidersports
NBA
Wizards ML (-150)
Wizards/Bulls UNDER 231
NCAAB
Norfolk State/Alabama OVER 144
NHL
Ducks ML (+125)
Jets/Ducks UNDER 6
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Chris Jordan
500♦
College Basketball
Winner # 14 of 19
TOURNAMENT OPENING TOTAL OF THE YEAR
NC Central - North Dakota State OVER
Winner is on the OVER in the play-in game between NC Central and North Dakota State. As I release this play at 9 am pacific, the line is 133 points.
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PICKS2PLAY
NBA 7:05 pm New Orleans Pelicans at Orlando Magic Orlando Magic -6.5 NCAAB 6:40 pm North Carolina Central at North Dakota State North Dakota State -5 NCAAB 7:00 pm Grand Canyon at West Virginia West Virginia -4.5
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Kevin Rogers
College Basketball
South Florida -7.5
Butler +5
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Tony Mejia
NBA - Miami Heat +6.5
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Kevin Rogers
NBA - Memphis Grizzlies +6
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