Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Thursday 3/7/19
It’s a quiet Thursday in the Association with just two games on the schedule. The Portland Trail Blazers host the Oklahoma City Thunder, while the Milwaukee Bucks welcome the Indiana Pacers, so we bring you all need-to-know betting trends notes for tonight’s matchups to help you make the best wagers.
Featured game: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Portland Trail Blazers
The Oklahoma City Thunder (39-25; 33-31 ATS) will face off against the Portland Trail Blazers (39-25; 37-27 ATS) in the Northwest Division showdown at Moda Center in Portland, Oregon. The Thunder has already clinched the series, beating the Trail Blazers three times in a row this season and covering the spread on all three occasions. Still, the Blazers are 7-4 straight up and ATS in their last 11 meetings with OKC, and the under is 7-3-1 in that span, while they are 8-1 straight up and 6-3 ATS in the previous nine head-to-head duels in Portland.
This is a big game for both OKC and Portland, as they are tied with the Houston Rockets at the No. 4 seed in the Western Conference 3.5 games behind their divisional rivals Denver Nuggets and 2.5 games ahead of another divisional foe Utah Jazz. The Blazers opened as 3.5-point favorites with the total at 233.5 points and the Thunder at +145 money line odds. The visitors are coming in full strength, while the hosts will miss Evan Turner (personal).
Oklahoma City is coming off a 131-120 defeat at the Minnesota Timberwolves this past Tuesday, and the Thunder is just 2-6 straight up and 0-8 ATS in its last eight games overall, while the under is 5-3 during that span. OKC has dropped four games in a row away from home, failing to cover in the process, while the Thunder is 2-9 straight up and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road meetings with the Northwest Division. Four of OKC’s last seven outings were decided by four or fewer points.
Portland is coming off a surprising 120-111 defeat at the Memphis Grizzlies Tuesday night to record their second loss over the last three outings. The Trail Blazers are 6-2 straight up and 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall, and the over is 6-2 during that stretch. They are 10-1 straight up and 9-2 ATS in the last 11 showings on the home court, while the Blazers are 7-4 straight up and ATS in their previous 11 home encounters with the Northwest Division. Three of Portland’s last four home meetings with the Thunder were decided by five or fewer points.
Indiana Pacers vs. Milwaukee Bucks
The Central Division showdown at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, will see the Indiana Pacers (42-23; 33-31 ATS) going against the Milwaukee Bucks (48-16; 37-24-3 ATS) for the fourth time this season. The Bucks lead the series 2-1 and are 4-1 straight up and ATS in their previous five home meetings with the Pacers who are 5-3 straight up and ATS in the last eight H2H meetings overall. The under is 9-4 in the previous 13 encounters between these two foes.
The Bucks are still leading the league, topping the Eastern Conference 2.5 games ahead of the Toronto Raptors. The Pacers are holding the No. 3 seed just half a game ahead of the Philadelphia 76ers and three games ahead of the Boston Celtics. The Bucks opened as 10.5-point favorites here with the total at 222.0 points and the Pacers at +410 money line odds (since moved to +475). Milwaukee will be without Sterling Brown (wrist) and George Hill (groin), while Indiana will miss Domantas Sabonis (ankle) and Victor Oladipo (knee).
The Pacers are coming off a 105-96 home win over the Chicago Bulls to record their second victory over the last five outings, while they are 10-4 straight up and 9-5 ATS in the last 14 games overall. Indiana is 3-5 straight up and 2-6 ATS in its last eight showings on the road, and is 4-2 straight up and 1-5 ATS in its six road meetings with the Central Division this season. Eight of the Pacers’ last nine games were decided by nine or fewer points.
The Bucks are coming off an embarrassing 114-105 defeat at the Phoenix Suns to record their second loss in a row, while they are 13-3 straight up and 11-5 ATS in the last 16 contests overall. Milwaukee is 13-2 straight up and 8-7 ATS in its previous 15 outings at home, and is 6-0 straight up and 5-1 ATS in its six home encounters with the Central Division this term. Seven of the Bucks last eight games were decided by 12 or fewer points.
By Chris David
Favorites finally came to play in the NBA last night as the ‘chalk’ went 8-2 straight up and 6-3-1 against the spread. The Heat and Bulls were the two underdogs to win outright and both of those teams were receiving attention from pro bettors. Including Wednesday’s results, the underdogs still hold an impressive 64-42-2 (60%) mark versus the number since the All-Star break.
Total bettors have watched the ‘under’ go 59-49 during this span and the low side has gone 18-5 (78%) since Monday.
Tonight’s TNT double-header features a pair of divisional matchups and three of the four teams in action are coming off losses.
Let’s break down the card.
Indiana (42-23 SU, 33-31-1 ATS) at Milwaukee (48-16 SU, 37-25-2 ATS)
May pundits wrote off the Pacers after they lost Victor Oladipo to a leg injury on Jan. 23 but the club weathered the blow and has turned things around. After dropping their first four games without the All-Star, Indiana has gone 9-5 and that includes a 105-96 win over Chicago on Tuesday as a 6 ½-point home favorite. At the end of the day the Pacers are a .500 team without Oladipo and while they have enough experience and talent to surprise you a nightly basis, it’s hard to imagine them winning a best-of-seven series against in this year’s playoffs.
The Bucks started the second-half of their season with five straight wins but they enter this game off back-to-back losses. Milwaukee dropped a 115-11 decision at Utah last Saturday before collapsing two days later as a heavy road favorite (-13 ½) at Phoenix, 114-105. Mike Budenholzer’s team was outscored 38-23 in the final 12 minutes and the Suns cashed ridiculous money-line tickets that had odds listed as high as +750 (Bet $100 to win $750).
It was the first time this season that Milwaukee had dropped back-to-back games and one of the main reasons why the Bucks will go over their season Win Total (48 ½) with a win at home tonight.
These teams have played three times already this season and the Bucks have captured two of the first three encounters, which includes a 118-108 win on Oct. 19 as a four-point home favorite.
Fast forward to this matchup and the spread has more than doubled with Milwaukee opening as a 10-point favorite over Indiana. VegasInisder.com NBA expert Tony Mejia weighs in on the high number for Thursday’s game.
He said, “With sixth man Domantas Sabonis out the past few games and starting center Myles Turner having been out before that, the Pacers have had their typical frontcourt rotation in place only once since the All-Star break ended. Kyle O’Quinn has picked up more minutes and performed reasonably well, but considering the Bucks bring the most stacked rotation of big men to the table with Giannis Antetokounmpo, Brook Lopez, Nikola Mirotic and Ersan Ilyasova all available, it’s no surprise Indiana opened as a double-digit underdog for the first time this season. The question becomes, is it too much?”
“The Pacers had their full frontcourt rotation in place at home and didn’t have to deal with Mirotic but still ran out of gas at home on Feb. 13, losing 106-97. The Bucks have already seen Wes Matthews in Victor Oladipo’s spot and will be back at Fiserv Forum for the first time since Feb. 23, adding to their advantages. Still, laying so many points against a division rival may be a case of Milwaukee being overvalued considering it has failed to cover its past two double-digit spreads.”
At home, the Bucks have gone 25-5 straight up and 17-13 against the spread which includes two wins since the All-Star break. Milwaukee failed to cover in both of those games and they are 1-5 ATS in their last six played at the Fiserv Forum. As double-digit home favorites this season, the Bucks have gone 12-1 SU and 8-5-1 ATS but as Mejia noted, they’ve burned bettors in their last two spots in this role.
Indiana has been decent on the road (17-14 SU, 13-17-1 ATS) this season but the club is just 1-4 both SU and ATS in their last five trips to Milwaukee.
The ‘under’ is on a 7-2 run in the last nine home games for the Bucks, plus Indiana has watched the ‘under’ go 5-2 in its last seven away games. This series is on a 7-2 ‘under’ run and these teams have never seen a total listed in the 220s during this span.
Oklahoma City (39-25 SU, 33-31 ATS) at Portland (39-25 SU, 37-25-1 ATS)
The Thunder and Trail Blazers square off tonight from the Great Northwest and this would be the 4-5 matchup in the Western Conference playoffs if the season ended today. This isn’t an easy game to handicap because Portland is returning from a long successful road trip while the Thunder are in terrible form. However, OKC has won and covered all three meetings against Portland this season and will be going for the 4-0 sweep tonight.
Mejia breaks down the fourth and final encounter. “Oklahoma City has failed to cover in its last eight games, losing six outright. The Thunder got Paul George back from a three-game absence on Tuesday due to a shoulder issue but failed to beat Minnesota and saw him shoot 8-for-25, which is disappointing since he took a break after shooting a combined 11-for-43 in losses Sacramento and Denver. He’s not right, which combined with the prolonged shooting slump Dennis Schroder (33-for-105) is on since the All-Star break ended, leaves Russell Westbrook back in the place where he’s having to do too much, which is how come he’s shot the ball 20 or more times in six of eight games during this stretch,” said Mejia.
He added, “Westbrook is shooting 40 percent in OKC’s three wins over the Trail Blazers, averaging 27 points, 11 rebounds and 10.7 assists. Portland hasn’t been in a favorite’s role against Oklahoma City much over the last three seasons – the 3.5 points it opened laying is the second-biggest number in that span – but you can understand why given the Thunder’s current form and the fact the Blazers had won eight of their last nine at home in the series entering this season.”
The Thunder have dropped their last two games as an underdog but they were 8-2 in their previous 10 when catching points.
Portland went 5-2 on the seven-game road trip after the break and could’ve easily been 7-0 if it wasn’t for a close call in Toronto (119-117) and a collapse at Memphis (120-111) this past Tuesday. Winning on the road hasn’t been the staple of success for Portland, rather its dominant mark (24-8 SU, 21-11 ATS) at the Moda Center.
Since the New Year, the club has gone 10-2 both SU and ATS at home. One of the losses did come to OKC, a 111-109 decision on Jan. 4 while the other setback was a bit of a stunner in early February to the Heat (118-108).
Portland started out the season as a solid ‘under’ look at home but those results have balanced out and the ‘over’ is 8-0-1 in its last nine home games. OKC is 19-14 to the ‘under’ on the road and it comes into this game on a 5-1 run to the low side but Paul George sat out three of those contests. Defensively, the Thunder have allowed 121, 116 and 131 points in three road games since the break and that’s another reason why tonight’s total is hovering between 233 and 234 points.
After this game, the Thunder will meet the Clippers at the Staples Center for a back-to-back spot on Friday while Portland entertains Phoenix on Saturday.
Pacers lost three of their last five games; Indiana is 3-5 vs spread on road since Oladipo got hurt. Over is 5-2 in their last seven games. Bucks lost their last two games after a 26-4 run; they’re 1-4 vs spread in last five home games. Over is 4-2 in their last six games. Home side won seven of last nine Indiana-Milwaukee games, with Pacers winning four of last six; Indiana is 1-3 vs spread in its last four visits to Wisconsin. Seven of last nine series games stayed under the total.
Oklahoma City lost six of its last eight games (0-8 vs spread); they’re 1-5 vs spread in last six road games. Five of their last six games stayed under. Trailblazers won six of their last eight games; they’re 7-2 vs spread in last nine home games. Over is 13-5-1 in their last 19 games. Thunder won their last three games with Portland; they’re 1-3 vs spread in last four visits to Oregon. Four of last five series games stayed under the total.
NBA
Long Sheet
Thursday, March 7
INDIANA (42 - 23) at MILWAUKEE (48 - 16) - 3/7/2019, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 37-25 ATS (+9.5 Units) in all games this season.
MILWAUKEE is 31-22 ATS (+6.8 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.
MILWAUKEE is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) vs. division opponents this season.
MILWAUKEE is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite this season.
MILWAUKEE is 95-65 ATS (+23.5 Units) after playing 3 consecutive road games since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 28-19 ATS (+7.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
INDIANA is 85-67 ATS (+11.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 33-17 ATS (+14.3 Units) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 35-23 ATS (+9.7 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 57-41 ATS (+11.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 49-36 ATS (+9.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 420-490 ATS (-119.0 Units) in home games since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in home games in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 207-255 ATS (-73.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
MILWAUKEE is 6-5 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
MILWAUKEE is 6-5 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
7 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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OKLAHOMA CITY (39 - 25) at PORTLAND (39 - 25) - 3/7/2019, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 10-24 ATS (-16.4 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) after a division game this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 17-29 ATS (-14.9 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 24-40 ATS (-20.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
PORTLAND is 37-27 ATS (+7.3 Units) in all games this season.
PORTLAND is 29-17 ATS (+10.3 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons.
PORTLAND is 23-13 ATS (+8.7 Units) as a favorite this season.
PORTLAND is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) in home games this season.
PORTLAND is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in home games in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
PORTLAND is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) in March games over the last 2 seasons.
PORTLAND is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
PORTLAND is 24-12 ATS (+10.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
PORTLAND is 29-19 ATS (+8.1 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
PORTLAND is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
PORTLAND is 53-40 ATS (+9.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
PORTLAND is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
PORTLAND is 7-4 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
PORTLAND is 7-4 straight up against OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
7 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NBA
Thursday, March 7
Trend Report
Indiana Pacers
Indiana is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games
Indiana is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indiana's last 7 games
Indiana is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Indiana's last 15 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indiana's last 7 games on the road
Indiana is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Milwaukee
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indiana's last 6 games when playing Milwaukee
Indiana is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
Indiana is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
Milwaukee Bucks
Milwaukee is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games
Milwaukee is 19-4 SU in its last 23 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 6 games
Milwaukee is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Milwaukee is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Milwaukee's last 8 games at home
Milwaukee is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Indiana
Milwaukee is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Indiana
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 6 games when playing Indiana
Milwaukee is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indiana
Milwaukee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indiana
Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Oklahoma City is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oklahoma City's last 6 games
Oklahoma City is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Oklahoma City is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Oklahoma City's last 9 games on the road
Oklahoma City is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Portland
Oklahoma City is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Portland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oklahoma City's last 5 games when playing Portland
Oklahoma City is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Portland
Oklahoma City is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Portland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oklahoma City's last 5 games when playing on the road against Portland
Portland Trail Blazers
Portland is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Portland is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Portland's last 6 games
Portland is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Portland is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Portland's last 5 games at home
Portland is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Oklahoma City
Portland is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing Oklahoma City
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Portland's last 5 games when playing Oklahoma City
Portland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City
Portland is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Portland's last 5 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City
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