Betting news, trends, odds and predictions for from various handicappers and websites for Wednesday 12/19/18
Wednesday’s games
Auburn is 9-1 vs schedule #137, with only loss 78-72 to Duke in Maui Classic; Tigers are #38 experience team that leads the country, forcing turnovers 28.5% of the time. Auburn needed OT beat regional rival UAB 75-71 Saturday; three Tigers played 34:00+- they outscored Blazers 27-6 on foul line. NC State is 9-1, but vs schedule #349; they lost by 4 at Wisconsin- their best win was 89-78 at Penn State Saturday. Wolfpack is #7 in country, forcing turnovers 24.7% of time- these teams like to do same things. NC State subs more and plays a much faster tempo.
Penn State lost three of its last four games; Nittany Lions are 5-5 vs schedule #23- only one of their five losses was by more than seven points. PSU is 4-1 vs teams ranked outside top 100, with three wins by 11+ points. PSU forces turnovers 21.9% of time (#40) but they can’t shoot- they’re ranked #236 worse behind arc, inside arc and on foul line- not good. Duquesne is 8-2 vs schedule #334; Dukes lost by 11 at Notre Dame in their only top 100 game. Dukes are experience team #348 whose bench plays minutes #8— their best win is over #120 Marshall.
Virginia is 9-0 vs schedule #305; Cavaliers are experience team #221 (#73 in MC) that plays the slowest tempo games in country, forcing turnovers 23.1% of time. Virginia won by 5 at Maryland in their only true road games this season; Cavaliers have four top 100 wins, but none of them were by more than eight points. South Carolina is 4-5 vs schedule #250; they lost road games at Wyoming, Michigan last week, have #247 eFG% while playing tempo #20, faster than in past (#155/#145 last two years). Gamecocks are experience team #225 (#120 in MC).
Cal-Irvine is 10-2 vs schedule #136; Anteaters are experience team #40 that has #28 defensive eFG%- both their losses are to top 100 teams (Toledo (of MAC)/Utah State) Anteaters already have four true road wins, winning at Texas A&M/St Mary’s- they play tempo #312, so playing vs 2-3 zone shouldn’t be an issue. Eastern Michigan is playing its first D-I game in 18 days, first vs anyone in 11 days; Eagles lost last four D-I games, are 2-5 vs schedule #31, with three non-D-I wins. EMU is experience team #54 that is 0-4 vs teams in top 125, losing by 38-27-18-14.
Old Dominion beat Richmond last two years by 19-3 points; Monarchs won last six games after a 2-3 start, are off 68-62 upset win at Syracuse Saturday. ODU is experience team #155 that lost its other true road game by 15 at St Joe’s- they play slow tempo (#321), have #6 defensive eFG% in country- teams shoot 37.7% inside arc against them. Richmond lost five of last seven games, is 4-6 vs schedule #346. Spiders are experience team #309; they lost by 16 to Loyola, Chi in only top 100 game this season. Richmond isn’t shooting 3’s well (31.5%), bad in Princeton system.
Memphis is 5-5 vs schedule #41 after losing 102-92 in regional rivalry game vs Tennessee four days ago; Tigers are experience team #132 that is 4-0 vs teams ranked outside top 100, winning by 15-7-8-18 points- they force turnovers 23.3% of time (#25) but aren’t shooting well behind arc (31.1%, #256). Little Rock lost 70-62 here LY, after leading by 5 with 9:45 left; Trojans are 3-6 vs schedule #326- they’re experience team #323 that is turning ball over 22.3% of time (#315). Little Rock is 0-3 vs teams in top 150, losing by 28-10-6 points.
Cincinnati beat UCLA 78-63 in Pauley Pavilion LY, forcing 18 turnovers (+9); Bearcats are 9-2 vs schedule #188- they lost last game 70-59 at Mississippi State. Cincy split its four top 100 games this season, beating Ole Miss/Xavier, losing at home to Ohio St. Bearcats are #115 experience team that is playing 6th-slowest tempo in country. UCLA split its last six games, losing last game at home to #79 Belmont. Bruins are #349 experience team that is 1-3 vs top 100 teams, with only win over Notre Dame- this is UCLA’s first true road game.
Fresno State won its last five games, is 7-2 vs schedule #147; Bulldogs are experience team #21 (MC #275) that is 5-0 vs teams ranked outside top 100, with three wins by 15+ points. Fresno is forcing turnovers 21% of time (#85); they start three juniors, two seniors- this is their first game in 11 days. California is 4-5 vs schedule #114; Golden Bears are experience team #345 that is 0-4 vs top 100 teams, with three losses by 13+ points- they lost 82-79 at St John’s, their closest top 100 game. Cal’s defensive eFG% is #325; they’re making 40.1% of their 3’s (#16).
Boise State ended game on 34-8 run over last 13:22 in 68-48 win over Loyola Marymount LY, 4th year in row they beat the Lions. Boise is 3-6 vs schedule #198; they’re experience team #98 that is turning ball over 20.1% of time while playing pace 286. Broncos are 0-3 vs teams in top 150, losing by 12-2-12 points. LMU is 10-1 vs schedule #225, with only loss at UCLA; Lions are experience team #161 (#60 in MC) that is playing 7th-slowest tempo in country- they’re trying to play pack-line defense now like Virginia does.
Belmont beat Western Kentucky last four years, by 21-3-1-5 points; Bruins are 8-1 vs schedule #133- they won by 2 at Pauley Pavilion Saturday, a huge win for their program. Belmont starts three freshmen, two seniors- their last three wins were all by 2 points or in OT. Bruins are #281 experience team that has #47 eFG%. WKU lost four of its last six games, with last three decided by 6 or fewer points. Hilltoppers are experience team #331 that is 1-3 in true road games, with losses by 18-9-6 points, but did they win 78-77 at Arkansas.
Mississippi State is 9-1 vs schedule #171; they beat Clemson/Cincinnati in last couple games. Bulldogs are experience team #176, but #10 in MC- they’re making 37.5% of their 3’s, have #57 eFG%. MSU won its last four top 100 games since losing 72-67 to Arizona State on neutral floor last month. Wofford won five of last six games, is 6-3 vs schedule #83; Terriers are experience team #134 (#24 in MC) that shoots 35.9% on the arc- they get 44.9% of their points there (#48 in country). Wofford three losses are all to top 100 teams, losing by 11-11-25 points.
Cal-Santa Barbara beat Omaha two of last three years, beating Mavericks 60-59 in last visit here three years ago; Gauchos are 7-2 vs schedule #327- they were held to 63 points in both their losses this year, to North Dakota State/Washington. UCSB is 3-2 in true road games, winning in to at Rice in last game Saturday. Omaha snapped its 4-game skid with Saturday’s 89-80 win at Idaho; Mavericks are 3-7 vs schedule #43- they’re 0-6 vs teams in top 200, with five losses by 19+ points- their only close top 200 game was a 79-75 loss at Colorado.
Arizona lost its last two games, to Alabama/Baylor; Wildcats are 2-4 in last six games overall, but are 5-0 vs teams ranked outside top 100- they’re 7-4 vs schedule #55, forcing turnovers 21.8% of time (#51). Arizona was held to 49 points in Saturday’s home loss to Baylor. Arizona is #320 in minutes continuity. Montana is 4-3 vs schedule #138; Griz is experience team #11 (#26) that is shooting 57.7% inside arc and has #14 eFG% in country. Montana is 0-2 vs top 100 teams, losing by 26 at Creighton, by 9 at Cal-Irvine- they turn ball over 20.1% of time.