Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Tuesday 6/518 .
Curry favored to win MVP
June 4, 2018
In an adjustment that should surprise nobody, Stephen Curry is the -200 favorite to win the NBA Finals MVP after two scintillating performances where he tore out the heart of Cleveland in Game 1 and Game 2. He has never looked better, more confident, nor has he ever played at a level this high in the championship series. As I told you before this whole debacle started, Curry’s odds as a +175 second choice behind Kevin Durant to win the award was a no-brainer.
The price has gotten steeper, but this is as good as free money gets in the NBA playoffs. Getting a 50-percent return on whatever you can lay down is better than nothing. Durant has shifted to +250, while LeBron remains a +350 third choice. Nobody else is really in the running.
To put this in perspective, Curry is averaging 31.0 points through two games so far. That’s not only up from his season average of 26.4ppg, but it’s also way up from his Finals average over the last three years where he’s put up 25.13 points per game. His nine, soul crushing threes in Game 2 have cemented him as the guy to beat for the illustrious prize.
By comparison, LeBron is putting up a nauseating 40.0 points per game in his first two appearances thanks in large part due to his 51 point explosion in the first frame. He wasn’t quite as prolific in Game 2, with a 29-13-9 line, but he also seemed to be gassed. I couldn’t tell if he was just trying to get his teammates more involved, or if he definitively lacked the explosiveness that he showed in Game 1.
My favorite bet in this market isn’t available anymore – the double result with the Cavs losing the Finals and LeBron winning the MVP was an awesome +900 bet before the series started. He will likely have to maintain an average of 40+ points and double-digit rebounds in order to stay in contention. If you took that bet, like you should have, then it’s still very much alive.
One of the biggest reasons is that Curry and Durant and Thompson all tend to defer to each other. There’s enough heroism to go around. It’s also very obvious that the narrative on LeBron has shifted dramatically towards one of sympathy for the situation he finds himself facing. The Cavaliers are a pretty bad team, and we knew that as we watched them struggle to dominate in the Eastern Conference Finals.
The Cavs shot just 41.1 percent from the field, and that wasn’t even the worst of it. They allowed Golden State to bomb from the field with a jaw dropping 57.3 percent field goal rate. The first game of the NBA Finals was a nice, uplifting piece of evidence that Cleveland can push their rivals if everything goes right. A 122-103 massacre in Game 2 reminded us just how big that gap is.
If the workload was spread out more between Curry, Thompson and Durant then I would say that LeBron has a fair crack at it. But Curry is putting on a display that proves vehemently that he belongs in the conversation of “best there is right now”. Curry is proving that he shines in the biggest moments and now gets to rip the heart out of Cleveland in Game 3.
Golden State is a seriously tempting -4.5 favorite as the series changes home court, and Curry will be at the center of it all. It’s pretty open-and-closed that the Warriors will win this series, and Curry has already done enough to win the MVP. Bet on it now before the price gets even more prohibitive.