Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Saturday 5/19/18
The remarkable run of seven consecutive trips to the NBA Finals by LeBron James is in jeopardy of ending as the Cavaliers trail the Celtics, 2-0 in the Eastern Conference Finals. This series isn’t over by any stretch, but Cleveland needs to take care of its home-court advantage the next two games, while taking advantage of Boston’s road woes in the playoffs.
After the Celtics destroyed the Cavaliers from the tip-off in Game 1 by 25 points, Cleveland must have felt good about evening up the series through 24 minutes in Game 2. The Cavaliers led at halftime, 55-48, but the Celtics blitzed Cleveland in the third quarter, 36-22 to pull away for a 107-94 victory. For the second straight time in this series, the game finished UNDER the total (205 ½), while Boston improved to 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS at TD Garden in the playoffs.
James carried the Cavaliers again by producing a triple-double with 42 points, 10 rebounds, and 12 assists. Unfortunately, only two other Cavs registered in double-figures as Kevin Love (22 points) and Kyle Korver (11 points) were the only other main providers to Cleveland’s offensive attack. The starting backcourt of J.R. Smith and George Hill combined to score three points on 1-of-11 shooting, as the only positive is Cleveland knocked down 10 three-pointer in Game 2 compared to only four in the opener.
All five Celtics’ starters finished in double-figures in Game 2, led by guard Jaylen Brown’s 23 points. Al Horford produced his sixth double-double of the playoffs by scoring 15 points and pulling down 10 rebounds, while Terry Rozier continued his strong postseason with 18 points, bouncing back from an eight-point performance in Game 1.
Now that the Celtics have taken care of their business at home, the task the next two games for Brad Stevens’ club is to fix their 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS record away from TD Garden in the playoffs. Boston lost all three road games at Milwaukee in the first round, while scoring less than 92 points in two of those defeats. The lone away victory came at Philadelphia in Game 3 of the conference semifinals, 101-98 in overtime. Boston scored only 89 points in regulation in that win, while following it up with a 92-point effort in a Game 4 loss.
The Cavaliers have been a questionable wager at home during the playoffs by posting an ugly 1-5 ATS mark. Tyronn Lue’s squad has won five straight games at Quicken Loans Arena since a 98-80 drubbing at the hands of Indiana to open up the playoffs, while limiting opponents to less than 100 points in four of six home contests. However, four of the victories came by four points or fewer, while the Cavs own an 0-3 ATS record as a home favorite of six points or more in the playoffs.
In James’ career, he has never trailed an Eastern Conference opponent 3-0 in a playoff series, but has been down 2-0 to an Eastern foe three times. All three instances came in his first go-around with Cleveland, as the Cavs beat the Pistons in 2006 and 2007 when trailing 2-0. In 2006, Cleveland lost to Detroit in seven games, while knocking out the Pistons in six games in ’07. In 2008, the Cavs routed the Celtics at home, 108-84, but eventually lost the series in seven games.
The Celtics haven’t visited Cleveland since that fateful opening night on October 17 when newly acquired Gordon Hayward suffered a gruesome leg injury five minutes into his Boston tenure. The Cavaliers won that game, 102-99, but failed to cash as 4 ½-point favorites. In last season’s conference finals, the Celtics covered in both visits to Cleveland, albeit as 15-point underdogs each time, including an upset in Game 3 by a 111-108 score after overcoming a 16-point halftime deficit.
Chris David of VegasInsider.com talked about a popular playoff betting trend that focuses on the first-half and it’s turned out to be a good look. He filled us in on the details.
“Even though social media and betting forums don’t bring out the best in people, it’s become a solid resource for information,” said David. “According to numbers from different sources and industry folks, teams down 0-2 in a playoff series while playing Game 3 at home have gone 31-4 ATS (88%) in the last four postseasons.”
David added, “The system makes sense and the results aren’t surprising when you consider that the home team is facing a deficit and the sense of urgency will be high at home, at least for the first 24 minutes. Backing the investment blindly this year has produced a profitable 4-2 mark with the Wizards, Timberwolves, Bucks and Pelicans earning Game 3 wins at home after being down 2-0. The two losses came by the Spurs in the first round and the 76ers in the second round.”
“While San Antonio couldn’t muster up a quality effort at home (52-46) to Golden State in Game 3, Philadelphia actually held a 51-48 lead over Boston in Game 3 at halftime. However, the oddsmakers had the club listed as a 7 ½-point favorite and that line was inflated. Fast forward to Saturday’s matchup and the oddsmakers have juiced up Cleveland’s first-half number to -5 ½.”
Even though the ‘under’ cashed in each of the first two games, the total for Game 3 stayed in the same neighborhood for Game 3. David offered up his handicap on the Saturday’s number.
He said, “While the ‘under’ in Game 1 was the right side, the same can’t be said for Game 2. If it wasn’t for a 40-point fourth quarter on Tuesday, the high side connects and bettors who lost can clearly point to Cleveland’s inept offense.”
“The one tendency that continues to stick out in this year’s playoffs is Boston’s offense, which has been held to 94.6 PPG in five away games. If you look at the Celtics under Stevens, these results aren’t surprising. Since he took over, the club hasn’t performed well out of TD Garden and are only averaging 98.2 PPG and that’s helped the ‘under’ go 13-5. As much criticism as Cleveland takes, deservingly, the unit has been much better at home. In this year’s playoffs, they’re surrendering 97.8 PPG. All those numbers have me leaning ‘under’ in the game but the better investment for me is on the Celtics Team Total Under (99 ½).”
The Celtics head into Game 3 as a -225 series favorite at Sportsbook.ag, while the Cavaliers sit at +190 to capture the series.
Boston Celtics vs. Cleveland Cavaliers Preview and Predictions 05-19-2018
18th May 2018 by Gracenote
the cleveland cavaliers have little margin for error as they attempt to begin digging out of a hole when they host the boston celtics on saturday in game 3 of the eastern conference finals. boston won the first two games to improve to 9-0 at home in the postseason but the celtics are just 1-4 on the road.
cleveland dropped the first two games by an average of 19 points and even a monster game 2 effort by lebron james (42 points, 12 assists and 10 rebounds) on tuesday couldn't prevent a 13-point loss. "we've got to be tougher, mentally and physically," cavaliers coach tyronn lue told reporters. "we've got to come out swinging. we've got to be aggressive. i think we've got to be physical, and we've got to have a physical mindset, you know, that they're coming in, playing tough. they're aggressive, and we've got to match that." boston doesn't want to provide a glimmer of hope and is looking to move one step closer to its first nba finals berth since 2010. "we're going to have to be really focused, really locked in, really consistent," celtics coach brad stevens told reporters. "it's even harder to communicate on the road. you've got to be great communicating."
tv: 8:30 p.m. et, espn
about the celtics: backup guard marcus smart is averaging 10 points, 7.5 assists, four rebounds and 2.5 steals in the series but is just 7-of-21 shooting as part of a struggling boston bench. "we haven't played well. we understand that," smart told reporters. "we understand that other teams see that and are going to try to exploit it, but that's the beauty about this game. just take one game. you never know. things change. our confidence is high." starting shooting guard jaylen brown has been solid with back-to-back 23-point outings while center al horford is averaging 17.5 points, seven rebounds, five assists and two blocked shots over the first two games.
about the cavaliers: james was bothered by a strained neck after game 2 but the extra days of rest figure to leave him near full strength. someone not operating at a high level is shooting guard jr smith, who is averaging two points on 2-of-16 shooting (0-of-7 from 3-point range) and committed a controversial flagrant 1 foul on a defenseless horford in game 2. "it was a good call," smith told reporters. "i blatantly pushed him. it wasn't like i was trying to low-bridge him or something to make sure he didn't get it. it was a good, hard foul. i can understand why they gave me a flagrant."
buzzer beaters
1. james has topped 40 points five times this postseason and is averaging 33.4 points, 9.2 rebounds and 9.2 assists.
2. boston sf jayson tatum is averaging 13.5 points through two games to follow up a franchise rookie record stretch of seven straight 20-point outings.
3. cleveland pg george hill is averaging four points and 0.5 assists in the series.
prediction: cavaliers 113, celtics 108
NBA
Long Sheet
Saturday, May 19
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BOSTON (65 - 31) at CLEVELAND (58 - 37) - 5/19/2018, 8:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 59-33 ATS (+22.7 Units) in all games this season.
BOSTON is 23-8 ATS (+14.2 Units) as an underdog this season.
BOSTON is 29-16 ATS (+11.4 Units) in road games this season.
BOSTON is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) on Saturday games this season.
BOSTON is 34-20 ATS (+12.0 Units) against Central division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all playoff games this season.
BOSTON is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) after a win by 10 points or more this season.
BOSTON is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.
BOSTON is 35-17 ATS (+16.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
BOSTON is 22-12 ATS (+8.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
BOSTON is 31-18 ATS (+11.2 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
BOSTON is 38-18 ATS (+18.2 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
BOSTON is 24-13 ATS (+9.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
CLEVELAND is 36-57 ATS (-26.7 Units) in all games this season.
CLEVELAND is 21-48 ATS (-31.8 Units) as a favorite this season.
CLEVELAND is 14-32 ATS (-21.2 Units) in home games this season.
CLEVELAND is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) on Saturday games this season.
CLEVELAND is 5-18 ATS (-14.8 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 9-7 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 11-6 straight up against BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
10 of 17 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
NBA
Saturday, May 19
Trend Report
Boston Celtics
Boston is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Boston is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Boston's last 18 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games
Boston is 16-8 ATS in its last 24 games on the road
Boston is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Boston is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Boston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Boston is 6-15 SU in its last 21 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Boston is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Boston is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston's last 6 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Cleveland Cavaliers
Cleveland is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games
Cleveland is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Cleveland is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Cleveland's last 12 games at home
Cleveland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Boston
Cleveland is 15-6 SU in its last 21 games when playing Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing Boston
Cleveland is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Boston
Cleveland is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Boston
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing at home against Boston