Betting news, trends, odds and predictions for Thursday, April 19, 2018 from various handicappers and websites
Preview: 76ers at Heat
Gracenote
Apr 18, 2018
Following their first loss in over a month, the Philadelphia 76ers - likely still without All-Star center Joel Embiid - will try to take back homecourt advantage when they visit the Miami Heat for Game 3 of their best-of-seven Eastern Conference first-round series. Embiid has been sidelined with an orbital fracture for 10 games, including a 113-103 loss to the Heat on Monday that tied the series up at a game apiece, and he was listed as doubtful after practice Wednesday.
Embiid posted an Instagram message before Game 2 that strongly indicated his desire to return, indicating that he was being "babied" by the team staff, and he participated in portions of practice the next two days. "It's still moving forward," coach Brett Brown told reporters Tuesday. "What I can say is there is a very unified effort with his representation and the people around him. With the people that did the operation, the doctors, with our medical staff, with the team, with me, the coaching staff. We're all doing this. There's a unified sort of spirit and line of communication." The Sixers had no issues without their big man in a Game 1 rout but they had no answers Monday night for Heat veteran Dwyane Wade, who scored 28 points on 11-of-16 shooting while moving into 10th place on the NBA's career postseason scoring list with 3,910. "It's just in my DNA," Wade told the media of his vintage performance. "I love the stage."
TV: 7 p.m. ET, TNT, NBCS Philadelphia, FS Sun (Miami)
ABOUT THE 76ERS: After making 18-of-28 3-pointers in Game 1, Philadelphia was 7-of-36 in Monday's loss, and rookie Ben Simmons - who rarely shoots from beyond the arc - led the way on the offensive end with 24 points. Dario Saric contributed 23 points while hitting 3-of-10 triples and is confident that whenever Embiid returns the matchups will be very different. "When he comes back he'll be ready, and will kick their [butt]," Saric told reporters. "I cannot wait for Joel to come back and help us because we are a way better team with him."
ABOUT THE HEAT: James Johnson averaged under nine minutes a game in his first 19 playoff contests with Chicago, Memphis and Toronto, but he's making the most of his increased role with the Heat this postseason. The veteran out of Wake Forest made all seven of his shots in Game 2 and finished with 18 points, seven rebounds, five assists and three steals in 37 minutes, which matches his highest total in a regulation game all season. Johnson, Wade and Goran Dragic combined to make 26-of-37 shot attempts while their teammates were 14-of-45 in Game 2.
BUZZER BEATERS
1. Johnson is 4-for-4 from beyond the arc in the series.
2. Sixers PF Ersan Ilyasova notched a double-double in each of the first two games of the series and is averaging 15.5 points and 12.5 rebounds.
3. Miami won both regular-season matchups at home by a total of 10 points.
PREDICTION: 76ers 111, Heat 108
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ATS Trends
Philadelphia
76ers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss.
76ers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
76ers are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
76ers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 vs. Eastern Conference.
76ers are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
76ers are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games playing on 2 days rest.
76ers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Southeast.
76ers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
76ers are 62-30-2 ATS in their last 94 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
76ers are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 Thursday games.
76ers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
76ers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home.
Miami
Heat are 18-5-3 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Heat are 13-6-3 ATS in their last 22 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
Heat are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 Conference Quarterfinals games.
Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.
Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Heat are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.
Heat are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 2 days rest.
Heat are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.
OU Trends
Philadelphia
Over is 5-1 in 76ers last 6 vs. Eastern Conference.
Under is 5-1 in 76ers last 6 Conference Quarterfinals games.
Under is 12-4 in 76ers last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Under is 21-8 in 76ers last 29 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Over is 5-2 in 76ers last 7 overall.
Over is 10-4-1 in 76ers last 15 games following a double-digit loss at home.
Over is 5-2 in 76ers last 7 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 5-2-1 in 76ers last 8 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 5-2 in 76ers last 7 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Over is 5-2 in 76ers last 7 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
Miami
Under is 6-1 in Heat last 7 Conference Quarterfinals games.
Over is 5-1 in Heat last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Under is 5-1 in Heat last 6 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
Over is 4-1-1 in Heat last 6 vs. NBA Atlantic.
Over is 12-3-1 in Heat last 16 games following a ATS win.
Under is 7-2 in Heat last 9 games playing on 2 days rest.
Over is 9-3-1 in Heat last 13 games following a straight up win.
Under is 37-18-2 in Heat last 57 Thursday games.
Head to Head
Home team is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
76ers are 1-3-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
76ers are 0-3-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Miami.
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Preview: Trail Blazers at Pelicans
Gracenote
Apr 18, 2018
The New Orleans Pelicans are off to a resounding postseason start and aim to take a 3-0 series lead when they host the Portland Trail Blazers on Thursday. Sixth-seeded New Orleans won the opening two games of the Western Conference first-round matchup at Portland and can take a commanding lead with another victory.
Guard Jrue Holiday scored a career playoff-best 33 points in Tuesday's 111-102 victory and coach Alvin Gentry cautioned his players not to get overly giddy following the contest. "We've still got to get two more wins, so we're not overly excited about anything," Gentry told reporters. "We're playing against a really, really well-coached great team. ... That was our message to the team and actually that was their message to each other, that we hadn't done anything yet." Portland star guard Damian Lillard was unable to get untracked in the first two games while coach Terry Stotts said his squad has to return serve by accumulating road wins. "We've got to win two games in New Orleans, and hopefully it's the next two," Stotts told reporters. "It's easy math - we've got to go and win two in New Orleans, and I feel we're very capable of winning both games."
TV: 9 p.m. ET, NBATV, NBCS Northwest (Portland), FS New Orleans
ABOUT THE TRAIL BLAZERS: Lillard averaged 26.9 points during the regular season but has struggled in this series with a 17.5 average on 13-of-41 shooting. "Coming into the playoffs, you know teams are going to lock in, and they're going to try and make the game hard for you," Lillard told reporters. "And I give a lot of credit to them for executing their game plan but the opportunities I do get, I've just got to be better. It's as simple as that." Starting center Jusuf Nurkic (leg) was limited to 15 minutes on Tuesday and swingman Even Turner (toe) missed all six of his field-goal attempts in 20 scoreless minutes.
ABOUT THE PELICANS: Holiday averaged 27 points in the two games in Portland and has thrived during the best of his five seasons in New Orleans. Injury issues and the situation in which his wife Lauren, a former U.S. national soccer player, battled a brain tumor while pregnant that caused him to miss the start of the 2016-17 season created challenges for the 27-year-old. "My family's the most important thing to me, and with them being OK I can come back to the team freely and be able to help them out now," Holiday told reporters. "It's been fun. I feel like my teammates and the organization definitely helped me out coming back from things with my family, and even the injuries, with being able to play and being able to perform at the peak I'm performing."
BUZZER BEATERS
1. Pelicans star PF Anthony Davis is averaging 28.5 points, 13.5 rebounds, three steals and two blocks in the series.
2. Portland SF Maurice Harkless (knee) had 11 points on 5-of-5 shooting in 27 minutes in Game 2 in his first action since March 25.
3. New Orleans F Nikola Mirotic (ankle) vows he'll play Thursday after being injured in Game 2.
PREDICTION: Trail Blazers 108, Pelicans 106
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ATS Trends
Portland
Trail Blazers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games.
Trail Blazers are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
Trail Blazers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Trail Blazers are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
Trail Blazers are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
Trail Blazers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games playing on 1 days rest.
Trail Blazers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS loss.
Trail Blazers are 7-22-2 ATS in their last 31 Conference Quarterfinals games.
Trail Blazers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Trail Blazers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Trail Blazers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Trail Blazers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Western Conference.
Trail Blazers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
Trail Blazers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Southwest.
New Orleans
Pelicans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
Pelicans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Pelicans are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Pelicans are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
Pelicans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Conference Quarterfinals games.
Pelicans are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games.
Pelicans are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games following a ATS win.
Pelicans are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 vs. Western Conference.
Pelicans are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following a straight up win.
Pelicans are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 Thursday games.
Pelicans are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 1 days rest.
Pelicans are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
Pelicans are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Northwest.
OU Trends
Portland
Under is 4-0 in Trail Blazers last 4 overall.
Under is 5-0 in Trail Blazers last 5 Thursday games.
Under is 4-0 in Trail Blazers last 4 vs. Western Conference.
Under is 4-0 in Trail Blazers last 4 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 6-0 in Trail Blazers last 6 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Under is 6-1 in Trail Blazers last 7 games following a straight up loss.
Under is 5-1 in Trail Blazers last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 5-1 in Trail Blazers last 6 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 8-2 in Trail Blazers last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Under is 10-4 in Trail Blazers last 14 games playing on 1 days rest.
New Orleans
Under is 5-0 in Pelicans last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Under is 4-0 in Pelicans last 4 vs. NBA Northwest.
Under is 6-1 in Pelicans last 7 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 5-1-1 in Pelicans last 7 Conference Quarterfinals games.
Under is 9-2-1 in Pelicans last 12 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Under is 8-3 in Pelicans last 11 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
Over is 23-9 in Pelicans last 32 home games.
Under is 9-4 in Pelicans last 13 Thursday games.
Over is 24-11 in Pelicans last 35 games playing on 1 days rest.
Head to Head
Under is 5-2-1 in the last 8 meetings.
Trail Blazers are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
Road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
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Preview: Warriors at Spurs
Gracenote
Apr 18, 2018
The San Antonio Spurs have their backs against the wall and badly need a victory when they host the Golden State Warriors on Thursday. The Spurs dropped the first two games of the best-of-seven series by an average of 18 points and hope to turn things around on the home floor.
Seventh-seeded San Antonio is having trouble matching up with the second-seeded Warriors - not having star forward Kawhi Leonard (quadriceps) isn't helping matters - but the players insist they can still make it a series. "We're not going to roll over," power forward LaMarcus Aldridge told reporters. "We've got to take the mentality that we had (in Game 2), trying to take the fight to them. ... I feel like it should be good for us going home, but we've got to take the same intensity from (Monday) home with us." Golden State's offense is clicking despite the absence of star guard Stephen Curry (knee) as the squad averaged 114.5 points over the first two games. Shooting guard Klay Thompson is averaging 29 points in the series and Kevin Durant is contributing 28 per game.
TV: 9:30 p.m. ET, TNT, NBCS Bay Area (Golden State), FS Southwest (San Antonio)
ABOUT THE WARRIORS: Thompson is 10-of-14 from 3-point range in the series and 23-of-33 overall and coach Steve Kerr said part of Thompson's sharpness is due to missing eight games in March with a broken right thumb. The thinking goes that Thompson was able to rest the remainder of his body while the thumb was healing and is much fresher than he would typically be at this time of year. "Any time you can take a few games off, unfortunately it hurts when you do, but in the long run, we try to play till June every season," Thompson told reporters. "So I think it will help out in the long run."
ABOUT THE SPURS: Leonard is away from the team in New York rehabbing his injury and one of coach Gregg Popovich's comments about Aldridge after Game 2 seemed like at least a partial shot at the two-time All-Star. "LaMarcus has been a monster all year long," Popovich told reporters. "He's led our team at both ends of the floor. He doesn't complain about a darned thing out on the court. He just plays through everything. I can't imagine being more proud of a player as far as playing through adversity and being there for his teammates night after night after night. He's been fantastic." Aldridge had 34 points and 12 rebounds in Game 2 after struggling to 14 points and two rebounds in the series opener.
BUZZER BEATERS
1. The Warriors have won 10 of their past 11 games against the Spurs, including a four-game sweep in last season's Western Conference finals.
2. San Antonio was just 4-of-28 from 3-point range in Game 2, while the Warriors were 15-of-31.
3. Golden State backup PF David West (ankle) is expected to be available for Game
PREDICTION: Warriors 109, Spurs 104
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ATS Trends
Golden State
Warriors are 25-7 ATS in their last 32 Conference Quarterfinals games.
Warriors are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 2 days rest.
Warriors are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
Warriors are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
Warriors are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Warriors are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.
Warriors are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
Warriors are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up win.
Warriors are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Warriors are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win.
Warriors are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Warriors are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games.
San Antonio
Spurs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Spurs are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games.
Spurs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
Spurs are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.
Spurs are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss.
Spurs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
Spurs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Spurs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. Western Conference.
Spurs are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Pacific.
Spurs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
OU Trends
Golden State
Over is 3-0-1 in Warriors last 4 Conference Quarterfinals games.
Over is 6-1 in Warriors last 7 Thursday games.
Under is 5-1 in Warriors last 6 road games.
Under is 8-2 in Warriors last 10 games playing on 2 days rest.
Under is 4-1 in Warriors last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Over is 4-1 in Warriors last 5 games following a ATS win.
Under is 4-1 in Warriors last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Over is 3-1-1 in Warriors last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 19-7-1 in Warriors last 27 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 13-5 in Warriors last 18 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
Over is 7-3-1 in Warriors last 11 vs. NBA Southwest.
Over is 7-3-1 in Warriors last 11 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
San Antonio
Under is 5-0 in Spurs last 5 Thursday games.
Over is 3-0-1 in Spurs last 4 games following a straight up loss.
Over is 4-0 in Spurs last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
Over is 4-0-1 in Spurs last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Over is 5-0-1 in Spurs last 6 Conference Quarterfinals games.
Over is 3-0-1 in Spurs last 4 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
Over is 5-1-1 in Spurs last 7 overall.
Over is 5-1-1 in Spurs last 7 vs. Western Conference.
Under is 4-1 in Spurs last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Over is 4-1-1 in Spurs last 6 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.
Over is 3-1-1 in Spurs last 5 vs. NBA Pacific.
Over is 3-1-1 in Spurs last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 8-3 in Spurs last 11 home games.
Under is 12-5-1 in Spurs last 18 games playing on 2 days rest.
Over is 7-3-1 in Spurs last 11 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Head to Head
Warriors are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in San Antonio.
Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
Warriors are 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings.
Under is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in San Antonio.
Over is 7-3-1 in the last 11 meetings.
Favorite is 35-17-2 ATS in the last 54 meetings.
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Eastern Conference First Round - Game 3 - Series tied 1-1
Philadelphia (-1.5/217) at Miami, TNT, 7:05 p.m. ET
It's not wise to expect another virtuoso performance from Dwyane Wade on Wednesday. It’s also not smart to write him off entirely.
Wade will be home for the first time since his highest-scoring game in over 14 months. The ovation he’s going to get when he checks in off the bench will be a blow the 76ers will have to withstand, which makes for an interesting curveball for a team playing their first road playoff game in since 2012.
Wade won’t go 11-for-16 again. Another mid-range shooting spree to make analytics devotees run to the nearest trash can isn’t coming, but that doesn’t mean he won’t find away to big-boy these kids he’ll be up against. Consider that this will also be, at least logically, his best opportunity to excel going forward in the series.
Only one more situation exists where the 36-year-old will get multiple days between playing, but that will include a trip back to Philly before Game 5.
Although its easy to use the "regression to the mean" take since it does seem inevitable for Wade, his highest-scoring game of the regular-season did come against the 76ers in Miami (Feb. 27), so maybe he’ll just duplicate the 10-for-16 he shot that night.
He came out and shot 61 percent two nights later against the Lakers, which also marks the last time he’d hit more than half of his shots in consecutive games before the first two in the series. Wade is streaky, capable of going on runs when he feels right, so what he’s able to give Miami beyond the first-quarter emotional lift will be a major x-factor here.
The largest one won’t be known for sure until close to tip-off, although the current expectation is that Joel Embiid is doubtful to play. The terrific 7-footer packed his bulky black mask in case Philadelphia is ready to stop “babying” him, so considering that he’s expressed his feelings on wanting to be out there, the team clearly would be taking a responsible approach if he sits again because there’s a threat of further damage.
This is a situation that’s an absolute must to monitor, though obviously if you like the 76ers whether Embiid plays or not, getting in early is a must since the expectation that he’ll be held out has trimmed the line a half-point already. The road money line is an option to weigh at a good price, available at -120 in some spots. If he plays, it’s only going to increase, which is why prospective Miami-backers may want to wait.
His team has certainly proven capable of winning without him, dominating Game 1 with 130-point outburst and nearly coming back to hold serve in Game 2 before Wade denied them. Their ability to make waves from beyond the arc will dictate their success in Miami. The 76ers shot a brutal 7-for-36 at home on Monday night, even blowing some easy ones since they were clearly thrown off rhythm by the length and athleticism of Josh Richardson, James Johnson and Justise Winslow. That will need to continue from Miami, which knows the 76ers are as likely to push on the road as they do at home since their pace data is similar.
The total for Game 3 opened 216 ½ and most books are holding 217 as of Thursday morning. Chris David of VegasInsider.com has leaned on a solid total angle with the 76ers and it might be in play again.
He explained, “Seasonal trends are a great way to handicap a game and if the 76ers close as favorites, I would certainly give it a look. When laying points on the road this season, Philadelphia has gone a respectable 13-6 SU and 10-9 ATS while the ‘over’ is 15-4. For whatever reason, the 76ers have relished in that ‘chalk’ role as visitors and they’ve also scored triple digits in all 19 games. To be specific, they’re averaging 113.8 PPG. Miami’s defense has been better at home but based on what we’ve seen this season, a lean on Philadelphia’s team total ‘over’ (107 ½) seems doable.”
Getting Embiid back wouldn’t necessarily slow this tempo down either, but it would effect what Miami counters with at the five. It's clear that head coach Erik Spoelstra is most comfortable with Kelly Olynyk out there spreading the floor and doing his best contesting along the perimeter in spite of his slow feet than he is riding with inconsistent Hassan Whiteside or raw rookie Bam Adebayo, who would be in line for more playing time if the 76ers have their masked man in the mix.
Western Conference First Round - Game 3 - Pelicans lead 2-0
Portland at New Orleans (-3/216), NBATV, 9:05 p.m. ET
The Pelicans look to apply a knockout blow in this series, which will be a lot easier to do if the Smoothie King Center can provide anything close to the boost that they persevered against in Portland. Players even said so, which is why it was disappointing to hear there were still a few thousand tickets available a few days ago when teams normally sell out as soon as postseason seats come up for grabs.
Fortunately, the hype of getting off to such a great start has available tickets dwindling, so a terrific boost would be provided considering the Pels had an identical 24-17 record at home as it did on the road and poor attendance was obviously one the reasons.
On the floor, Nikola Mirotic’s ankle will likely be tender, although he wasn’t even listed on the injury report and is expected to go. The lift he and Darius Miller offered from beyond the arc since New Orleans when the Trail Blazers had no other recourse but to play off shooters due to an inability to contain Jrue Holiday and Anthony Davis without guys running at them – which didn’t work either.
Portland did get a great boost from Moe Harkless, who played his first game since March 25 after getting his knee scoped and made all five of his shots, playing 27 minutes. His role would be similar if the Blazers are without Evan Turner, who is listed as questionable with a toe injury.
Center Jusuf Nurkic should start, but he hasn’t been effective at all against the Pelicans thus far, shooting 8-for-19 from the field. He’s by far his team’s biggest concern since Holiday and Rajon Rondo have dominated their higher-regarded counterparts as visitors and now get to try and impose their edge in length at home.
“It will be hard for the Blazers to dig out of this 0-2 hole since they are headed to the Big Easy. It will be anything but in Game 3 as Portland has lost five consecutive contests away from the Moda Center,” said VegasInsider.com NBA expert Kevin Rogers. “However, the last road victory for Portland came at New Orleans on March 27 in a 107-103 triumph as Damian Lillard torched the Pelicans for 41 points. Lillard’s backcourt mate, C.J. McCollum, struggled in that game by shooting 3-of-19 from the floor for 7 points, but the former Lehigh standout has scored in double-figures in the past 10 games.”
Getting Lillard and McCollum off and comfortable in the same game will be the Blazers’ mandate here. McCollum is shooting under 40 percent since erupting for 42 points in Memphis the night after his struggles in New Orleans referenced by Rogers above, but that was a game Lillard missed due to paternity leave.
Portland’s All-Star guard, who will rightfully land on one the three All-NBA teams, has shot 39 percent or worse in five of his team’s last eight games. He likes to point to his imaginary watch at crunch time, so my advice would be that he breaks that out in the first quarter here. It’s vital that he finds a rhythm early to settle his teammates and the situation for his Trail Blazers doesn’t get much dire than the one they’re in if they want to keep hope realistically alive.
The Blazers are +380 to comeback and win the series at Sportsbook.ag and are averaging just 98.5 points per game in the series after averaging 105.6 during the regular season. Despite this, the total is hovering at 216 at most books despite the under coming in rather easily in the first two games.
Western Conference First Round - Game 3 - Warriors lead 2-0
Golden State (-3/206) at San Antonio, TNT, 9:35 p.m. ET)
With the Spurs mourning the loss of Gregg Popovich’s late wife, Erin, human nature certainly plays into anticipating what will happen in the night’s late tip-off. There’s certainly going to be a somber atmosphere in play in an arena where San Antonio has dominated this time of year for two decades. A season that has been clouded by Kawhi Leonard’s quad injury and the subsequent will-he-or-won’t-he regarding his return now has a new, far more sobering obstacle in place as this series swings to Texas for Game 3.
Will Pop coach? If he does, his team will certainly leave it all out there. If he doesn’t, his team will certainly leave it all out there with Ettore Messina or James Borrego in the head seat. The question is how much they’ve got left after such awful news. Remember, Spurs culture is a very real thing and a lot of the players who have been a part of so much success over the years are dealing with the loss of someone who played a role in their lives too.
On the flip side, Steve Kerr also spent significant time with San Antonio and has also been touched by the loss. Kevin Durant had a genuine reaction of complete and utter shock when notified of the news by media on Thursday. All those guys have to be pros and try to stomp out a dangerous team’s hopes by taking a commanding 3-0 lead. That’s their job.
Similarly, even though it feels trite to break down the series, that’s what you’re reading for. LaMarcus Aldridge and Rudy Gay have had excellent moments thus far and it has still resulted in double-digit losses. What can change here?
One huge key would be slowing down Klay Thompson, who is shooting about 70 percent from the field, including 10-for-14 from 3-point range. Having a fire extinguisher nearby has been necessary. Durant is shooting over 52 percent and averaging 28 points per game through the first two, one behind Thompson’s clip. If San Antonio can slow down one of them, it would put more pressure on Quinn Cook, who has been sharp in doing what he can to fill Stephen Curry’s shoes, to continue to flourish on the road.
Even though Golden State captured the first two wins in this series, VI’s David believes the right lean in Game 3 is with the home underdog.
“Losing the first two games by double digits at Golden State wasn’t surprising for many, especially when you looked at the road tendencies for San Antonio. The Spurs own the largest disparity of wins (17) in the NBA when it comes to their home (33-8) and away (14-27) records,” said David. “That home mark includes a run of 11 straight wins and eight of them came against playoff teams albeit a couple were playing short-handed. Of the remaining games, I expect Game 3 to be the most competitive and the oddsmakers are telling you so with such a short opening number as well.”
The number has only moved one-half point at a few places since Popovich’s availability came into question. The total remains right around where it was set for the action in Oakland, where there were split results. Regardless of what goes down, count on an emotional environment at the AT&T Center.
April 19, 2018
By Tony Mejia
Thursday's NBA Playoffs Betting Preview and Odds
The opening round of the 2018 NBA Playoffs continues Thursday night with three Game 3s as the series' shift to the home court of the lower seeds.
Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat (+2, 216.5)
Following their first loss in over a month, the Philadelphia 76ers - likely still without All-Star center Joel Embiid - will try to take back homecourt advantage when they visit the Miami Heat for Game 3 of their best-of-seven Eastern Conference first-round series. Embiid has been sidelined with an orbital fracture for 10 games, including a 113-103 loss to the Heat on Monday that tied the series up at a game apiece, and he was listed as doubtful after practice Wednesday.
Embiid posted an Instagram message before Game 2 that strongly indicated his desire to return, indicating that he was being "babied" by the team staff, and he participated in portions of practice the next two days. "It's still moving forward," coach Brett Brown told reporters Tuesday. "What I can say is there is a very unified effort with his representation and the people around him. With the people that did the operation, the doctors, with our medical staff, with the team, with me, the coaching staff. We're all doing this. There's a unified sort of spirit and line of communication." The Sixers had no issues without their big man in a Game 1 rout but they had no answers Monday night for Heat veteran Dwyane Wade, who scored 28 points on 11-of-16 shooting while moving into 10th place on the NBA's career postseason scoring list with 3,910. "It's just in my DNA," Wade told the media of his vintage performance. "I love the stage."
TV: 7 p.m. ET, TNT, NBCS Philadelphia, FS Sun (Miami)
SERIES PRICE (PER Pinnacle):
BETTING ACTION AND LINE MOVES: The Heat opened as 1-point home favorites for Game 3 but steady, early action on the Sixers has pushed that pointspread over the fence to Philly -2. 60 percent of Covers Consensus selections are on the 76ers. The total hit betting boards at 216 and has been bumped up slightly to 216.5.
ABOUT THE 76ERS (53-31 SU, 48-34-2 ATS, 42-41-1 O/U): After making 18-of-28 3-pointers in Game 1, Philadelphia was 7-of-36 in Monday's loss, and rookie Ben Simmons - who rarely shoots from beyond the arc - led the way on the offensive end with 24 points. Dario Saric contributed 23 points while hitting 3-of-10 triples and is confident that whenever Embiid returns the matchups will be very different. "When he comes back he'll be ready, and will kick their [butt]," Saric told reporters. "I cannot wait for Joel to come back and help us because we are a way better team with him."
ABOUT THE HEAT (45-39 SU, 41-37-6 ATS, 38-45-1 O/U): James Johnson averaged under nine minutes a game in his first 19 playoff contests with Chicago, Memphis and Toronto, but he's making the most of his increased role with the Heat this postseason. The veteran out of Wake Forest made all seven of his shots in Game 2 and finished with 18 points, seven rebounds, five assists and three steals in 37 minutes, which matches his highest total in a regulation game all season. Johnson, Wade and Goran Dragic combined to make 26-of-37 shot attempts while their teammates were 14-of-45 in Game 2.
INJURY REPORT:
Sixers - C J. Embiid (Questionable, Face), SG T. Luwawu-Cabarrot (Out Indefinitely, Knee).
Heat - SG D. Waiters (Out For Season, Ankle).
MATCHUP CHART:
TRENDS:
* 76ers are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
* Heat are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 2 days rest.
* Over is 5-1 in 76ers' last 6 vs. Eastern Conference.
* Under is 6-1 in Heat's last 7 Conference Quarterfinals games.
* 76ers are 0-3-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Miami.
Portland Trail Blazers at New Orleans Pelicans (-3.5, 216)
The New Orleans Pelicans are off to a resounding postseason start and aim to take a 3-0 series lead when they host the Portland Trail Blazers on Thursday. Sixth-seeded New Orleans won the opening two games of the Western Conference first-round matchup at Portland and can take a commanding lead with another victory.
Guard Jrue Holiday scored a career playoff-best 33 points in Tuesday's 111-102 victory and coach Alvin Gentry cautioned his players not to get overly giddy following the contest. "We've still got to get two more wins, so we're not overly excited about anything," Gentry told reporters. "We're playing against a really, really well-coached great team. ... That was our message to the team and actually that was their message to each other, that we hadn't done anything yet." Portland star guard Damian Lillard was unable to get untracked in the first two games while coach Terry Stotts said his squad has to return serve by accumulating road wins. "We've got to win two games in New Orleans, and hopefully it's the next two," Stotts told reporters. "It's easy math - we've got to go and win two in New Orleans, and I feel we're very capable of winning both games."
TV: 9 p.m. ET, NBATV, NBCS Northwest (Portland), FS New Orleans
SERIES PRICE (PER Pinnacle):
BETTING ACTION AND LINE MOVES: The Pelicans opened as 3-point home favorites for Game 3 and that number has bumped up slightly to -3.5. 74 percent of Covers Consensus side wagers are on the favorites from New orleans. The total hit betting boards at 216 and has not moved as of Thursday morning.
ABOUT THE TRAIL BLAZERS (49-35 SU, 45-34-5 ATS, 35-49 O/U): Lillard averaged 26.9 points during the regular season but has struggled in this series with a 17.5 average on 13-of-41 shooting. "Coming into the playoffs, you know teams are going to lock in, and they're going to try and make the game hard for you," Lillard told reporters. "And I give a lot of credit to them for executing their game plan but the opportunities I do get, I've just got to be better. It's as simple as that." Starting center Jusuf Nurkic (leg) was limited to 15 minutes on Tuesday and swingman Even Turner (toe) missed all six of his field-goal attempts in 20 scoreless minutes.
ABOUT THE PELICANS (50-34 SU, 47-36-1 ATS, 47-37 O/U): Holiday averaged 27 points in the two games in Portland and has thrived during the best of his five seasons in New Orleans. Injury issues and the situation in which his wife Lauren, a former U.S. national soccer player, battled a brain tumor while pregnant that caused him to miss the start of the 2016-17 season created challenges for the 27-year-old. "My family's the most important thing to me, and with them being OK I can come back to the team freely and be able to help them out now," Holiday told reporters. "It's been fun. I feel like my teammates and the organization definitely helped me out coming back from things with my family, and even the injuries, with being able to play and being able to perform at the peak I'm performing."
INJURY REPORT:
Blazers - C J. Nurkic (Probable, Leg), SF E. Turner (Questionable, Toe), SG C. Wilcox (Out Indefinitely, Knee).
Pelicans - PF N. Mirotic (Probable, Ankle), C A. Ajinca (Out For Season, Knee), PG F. Jackson (Out For Season, Foot), C D. Cousins (Out For Season, Achilles).
MATCHUP CHART:
TRENDS:
* Trail Blazers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Southwest.
* Pelicans are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
* Under is 6-0 in Trail Blazers' last 6 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
* Under is 6-1 in Pelicans' last 7 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
* Trail Blazers are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
Golden State Warriors at San Antonio Spurs (+4, 206)
The San Antonio Spurs have their backs against the wall and badly need a victory when they host the Golden State Warriors on Thursday. The Spurs dropped the first two games of the best-of-seven series by an average of 18 points and hope to turn things around on the home floor.
Seventh-seeded San Antonio is having trouble matching up with the second-seeded Warriors - not having star forward Kawhi Leonard (quadriceps) isn't helping matters - but the players insist they can still make it a series. "We're not going to roll over," power forward LaMarcus Aldridge told reporters. "We've got to take the mentality that we had (in Game 2), trying to take the fight to them. ... I feel like it should be good for us going home, but we've got to take the same intensity from (Monday) home with us." Golden State's offense is clicking despite the absence of star guard Stephen Curry (knee) as the squad averaged 114.5 points over the first two games. Shooting guard Klay Thompson is averaging 29 points in the series and Kevin Durant is contributing 28 per game.
TV: 9:30 p.m. ET, TNT, NBCS Bay Area (Golden State), FS Southwest (San Antonio)
SERIES PRICE (PER Pinnacle):
BETTING ACTION AND LINE MOVES: The Warriors opened as 3-point road favorites and as of Thursday morning that number is up to 4. 66 percent of consensus users are on the favorite Dubs. The total hit betting boards at 207 and is down slightly to 206.
ABOUT THE WARRIORS (60-24 SU, 36-47-1 ATS, 40-43-1 O/U): Thompson is 10-of-14 from 3-point range in the series and 23-of-33 overall and coach Steve Kerr said part of Thompson's sharpness is due to missing eight games in March with a broken right thumb. The thinking goes that Thompson was able to rest the remainder of his body while the thumb was healing and is much fresher than he would typically be at this time of year. "Any time you can take a few games off, unfortunately it hurts when you do, but in the long run, we try to play till June every season," Thompson told reporters. "So I think it will help out in the long run."
ABOUT THE SPURS (47-37 SU, 42-40-2 ATS, 39-44-1 O/U): Leonard is away from the team in New York rehabbing his injury and one of coach Gregg Popovich's comments about Aldridge after Game 2 seemed like at least a partial shot at the two-time All-Star. "LaMarcus has been a monster all year long," Popovich told reporters. "He's led our team at both ends of the floor. He doesn't complain about a darned thing out on the court. He just plays through everything. I can't imagine being more proud of a player as far as playing through adversity and being there for his teammates night after night after night. He's been fantastic." Aldridge had 34 points and 12 rebounds in Game 2 after struggling to 14 points and two rebounds in the series opener.
INJURY REPORT:
Warriors - PF D. West (Questionable, Ankle), SG P. McCaw (Out Indefinitely, Back), PG S. Curry (Late April, Knee), SF C. Boucher (Out Indefinitely, Ankle).
Spurs - C J. Lauvergne (Questionable, Personal), SF K. Leonard (Out For Season, Quadricep).
MATCHUP CHART:
TRENDS:
* Warriors are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up win.
* Spurs are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games.
* Over is 3-0-1 in Warriors' last 4 Conference Quarterfinals games.
* Over is 5-0-1 in Spurs' last 6 Conference Quarterfinals games.
* Warriors are 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings.
NBA
Long Sheet
Thursday, April 19
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PHILADELPHIA (53 - 31) at MIAMI (45 - 39) - 4/19/2018, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 91-71 ATS (+12.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 55-36 ATS (+15.4 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 39-25 ATS (+11.5 Units) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 44-31 ATS (+9.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 25-9 ATS (+15.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 49-35 ATS (+10.5 Units) in all games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 34-23 ATS (+8.7 Units) as a favorite this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 23-13 ATS (+8.7 Units) in the second half of the season this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) when playing with 2 days rest over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) against Southeast division opponents this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 29-16 ATS (+11.4 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 61-41 ATS (+15.9 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 25-14 ATS (+9.6 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 47-34 ATS (+9.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) after a win by 10 points or more this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 7-6 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 8-5 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
7 of 13 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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PORTLAND (49 - 35) at NEW ORLEANS (50 - 34) - 4/19/2018, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 47-36 ATS (+7.4 Units) in all games this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 27-18 ATS (+7.2 Units) as a favorite this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 21-12 ATS (+7.8 Units) in the second half of the season this season.
PORTLAND is 45-32 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all games this season.
PORTLAND is 20-11 ATS (+7.9 Units) in the second half of the season this season.
PORTLAND is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
PORTLAND is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
PORTLAND is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 8-6 against the spread versus PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 8-6 straight up against PORTLAND over the last 3 seasons
8 of 14 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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GOLDEN STATE (60 - 24) at SAN ANTONIO (47 - 37) - 4/19/2018, 9:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GOLDEN STATE is 35-46 ATS (-15.6 Units) in all games this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 16-27 ATS (-13.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
GOLDEN STATE is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 1045-918 ATS (+35.2 Units) in all games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 26-14 ATS (+10.6 Units) in home games this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 81-55 ATS (+20.5 Units) in home games in all playoff games since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 82-55 ATS (+21.5 Units) in home games after a loss by 10 points or more since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 297-244 ATS (+28.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 191-141 ATS (+35.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 131-95 ATS (+26.5 Units) in April games since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 58-35 ATS (+19.5 Units) in all playoff games since 1996.
GOLDEN STATE is 26-8 ATS (+17.2 Units) in the first round of the playoffs since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 17-26 ATS (-11.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
GOLDEN STATE is 11-6 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 13-4 straight up against SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
9 of 16 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
__________________
NBA
Thursday, April 19
Trend Report
Philadelphia 76ers
Philadelphia is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games
Philadelphia is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Philadelphia is 17-1 SU in its last 18 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 7 games
Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games on the road
Philadelphia is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Miami
Philadelphia is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing Miami
Philadelphia is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami
Philadelphia is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing on the road against Miami
Miami Heat
Miami is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
Miami is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games at home
Miami is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Miami is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games at home
Miami is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
Miami is 3-4-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
Miami is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
Portland Trail Blazers
Portland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Portland is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Portland's last 6 games
Portland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Portland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Portland's last 18 games on the road
Portland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New Orleans
Portland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Portland's last 6 games when playing New Orleans
Portland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
Portland is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
New Orleans Pelicans
New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
New Orleans is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games at home
New Orleans is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 15 of New Orleans's last 23 games at home
New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Portland
New Orleans is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Portland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing Portland
New Orleans is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Portland
New Orleans is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Portland
Golden State Warriors
Golden State is 8-15 ATS in its last 23 games
Golden State is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Golden State's last 6 games
Golden State is 6-12 ATS in its last 18 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Golden State's last 6 games on the road
Golden State is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing San Antonio
Golden State is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing San Antonio
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Golden State's last 6 games when playing San Antonio
Golden State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
Golden State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
Golden State is 6-19 SU in its last 25 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Golden State's last 9 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
San Antonio Spurs
San Antonio is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
San Antonio is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Antonio's last 7 games
San Antonio is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games at home
San Antonio is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of San Antonio's last 11 games at home
San Antonio is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Golden State
San Antonio is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games when playing Golden State
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Antonio's last 6 games when playing Golden State
San Antonio is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Golden State
San Antonio is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games when playing at home against Golden State
San Antonio is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Golden State
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Antonio's last 9 games when playing at home against Golden State