NBA Betting News and Trends For Friday, April 13, 2018

It’s pretty wild no one knew who they were squaring off against in postseason until the final games tipped off on Wednesday night.

After Milwaukee came out with no intention of being competitive against Philadelphia, it became clear we’d see the Pacers open in Cleveland but determining all of the other matchups required other games to go final. The Heat and Raptors went into OT. So did the battle for the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference between Minnesota and Denver.

It was a fun season livened up by the excitement of the final week but featured too many buzzkills to be considered great.

Kyrie Irving won’t participate in the playoffs. Kawhi Leonard is likely done too. DeMarcus Cousins will be in a suit on the bench for his first postseason “appearance”. Stephen Curry won’t be part of the first round. Jimmy Butler got back just in time to go and Joel Embiid is expected to do the same when the weekend arrives, sporting a black mask.

Over the course of the regular season, you’ve read columns commenting on most NBA teams, but given the roller-coaster ride the Warriors and Cavs have taken us on, it feels like I’ve been writing about how to approach the matchup most anticipated when the regular season began, the seemingly inevitable Cleveland-Golden State, Part IV.

When things looked bleakest for the Cavs, after losses in eight of 10 between Christmas and Jan. 15, my opinion was to stick with them. Although it took the unexpected trade of Isaiah Thomas to perk things up, Cleveland enters the postseason at 6-to-5 to get out of the Eastern Conference per the Las Vegas Westgate SuperBook's latest update after it was even money as of Monday. The Cavs are 8-to-1 to win it all, and while I wouldn’t get behind that, consider this my very clear suggestion that you ride the best player of this generation to get back to an eighth consecutive NBA Finals.

In a season where James Harden has checked all the MVP options with a brilliant, dominant season as the best player on the best team, 33-year-old LeBron James has barged his way into the conversation, suiting up for all 82 games for the first time in his career. His Cavs have never needed him more, sabotaged by injuries to Kevin Love and pieces that didn’t quite fit coming over in return for Irving. Despite bouts with brutal defense and stagnant ball movement, Cleveland managed to finish fourth in the conference and arrives at this point healthier than it has been all season. For that reason alone, the Cavs will be formidable.

While I wouldn’t sell off the Warriors at all, I’m not as confident that they’ll be back to defend their title as I am that Cleveland will be back in another NBA Finals. Golden State needs Stephen Curry to work off any rust in a hurry, while Houston did what it needed to in ensuring it landed homecourt advantage. Expect to witness an epic Western Conference finals.

In the East, expect status quo.

Some may tell you that the East is as wide open as it has been since James returned to Cleveland after leaving Miami, but I wouldn’t believe the hype on that. Here are my notes on why to fade the rest of the conference, with Westgate’s odds in parentheses.

Toronto Raptors (3/2): This is the deepest team in the conference and they’ll have the homecourt edge at Air Canada Centre, so I’ll buy them as the favorite. DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry must still prove they can get it done when it matters most, and it certainly didn’t help that LeBron administered his mind as the shorthanded Cavs won a pair of games against the Raps in late March to reaffirm their dominance. Fred Van Vleet hasn’t been healthy down the stretch, so getting him back to the level he had been playing at is essential.

Philadelphia 76ers (6/1): Embiid will be back to improve a team that has looked tremendous without him. Ersan Ilyasova and Marco Belinelli were brilliant additions, so this team needs to be taken seriously as Ben Simmons continues to improve and gain confidence. However, he’s a liability at the free-throw line and this group is light on guys who have felt the heat of the playoff spotlight. That’s ultimately going to catch up to them.

Boston Celtics (20/1): Losing Irving means there will be no Gordon Hayward comeback either, so it’s on Al Horford and the kids to do the heavy lifting. Although Jaylen Brown has emerged and rookie Jayson Tatum is extremely polished, there is a ceiling this team will ultimately hit since Brad Stevens’ Xs and O skills will only be able to carry them so far.

Washington Wizards (40/1): John Wall has made it back and no one is talking about the Wizards being better off without him anymore considering how quickly that bubble burst. We’ll see whether keeping their ship afloat didn’t wear everyone out since the group is currently playing the worst of any East playoff team. Having won a few series the past few years, the hope is that this group will be ready to go when the weekend arrives. The talent is there. Cohesion and depth is not.

Indiana Pacers (40/1): The conference’s biggest surprise rides likely Most Improved Player honoree Victor Oladipo back into the postseason in a year where they were expected to take a step back after dealing Paul George. There’s a chance that they can pull off a first-round upset if Myles Turner turns it on in what’s been a disappointing season, but being first up to try and solve the LeBron James puzzle for an entire series makes it difficult to get excited about their chances of continuing to stun the basketball world.

Miami Heat (80/1): No one has the rim protection and perimeter defenders that this group brings to the table with Hassan Whiteside and Bam Adebayo in the post and guys like Josh Richardson and Justise Winslow available. If Goran Dragic and Dwyane Wade can be competent closers and James Johnson and Kelly Olynyk find a way to create matchup problems as x-factors, this is going to be one tough out.

Milwaukee Bucks (80/1): Giannis Antetokoumpo is going to be the best player on the floor more often than not and Jabari Parker has been able to shake off some of the rust in his return from a torn ACL, so this is a team talented enough to be a difficult matchup. Malcolm Brogdon just returned from knee soreness, so if he hits the ground running, the Bucks are going to be capable of locking up opposing guards since he and Eric Bledsoe are relentless defenders.

Here are a few notes on the field in the West. Westgate’s odds to win the conference are in parentheses.

Houston Rockets (10/11): Eric Gordon and Ryan Anderson rested down the stretch and Chris Paul got himself right as well, so Mike D’Antoni is going to have to his full arsenal in play. The Timberwolves are a tough matchup on paper with Jimmy Butler back and Karl-Anthony Towns playing as well as he has, but Houston won its four regular-season meetings against the Wolves by double-digits, surrendering 122.8 points per game.

Golden State Warriors (10/11): With Curry sidelined, guys like Quinn Cook and Nick Young will have to make contributions, but it’s not like Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson can’t shoulder the scoring load enough to get past the depleted Spurs. It’s also an advantage that the Blazers/Pelicans ended up being the matchup on their side of the bracket even though they lost the last three meetings against those two and ended up just 5-3 on the season. Both OKC and Utah are tougher to matchup with.

Portland Trail Blazers (25/1): The Blazers finally snapped their late-season slump in order to finish atop the Northwest Division, holding on to a homecourt advantage they badly needed. Center Jusuf Nurkic came on late in the season and will be the x-factor here but losing underrated small forward Mo Harkless to knee surgery was a big loss, while CJ McCollum is slumping at the wrong time. Damian Lillard dominated the regular-season finale against Utah but has been bothered by ankle soreness.

Oklahoma City Thunder (25/1): Paul George rediscovering his shooting stroke after admitting that he felt off over the season’s final weeks is a major development and one reason why it might be worth getting back on the OKC bandwagon. Carmelo Anthony coasted down the stretch and may surprise with his ability to take and make big shots. Meanwhile, Corey Brewer ultimately became an effective replacement for Andre Roberson as a defensive wing.

Utah Jazz (40/1): Rudy Gobert’s ability to impact a series as the most dominant defensive force in the league today will be on display against the Thunder but may not loom as large against a perimeter-oriented team like the Rockets. Donovan Mitchell and Ricky Rubio have really been tremendous down the stretch, which must continue to have a shot at getting out of this first series.

New Orleans Pelicans (100/1): If Anthony Davis can stay healthy, the Pelicans have one of the game’s most dominant forces to depend on in a winnable series against the Blazers. He scored 36 points in each of 2018’s meetings with Portland, shooting 31-for-47. Assuming Terry Stotts sends double-teams his way, advancing will likely depend on Nikola Mirotic and E’twaun Moore making the most of their open looks. Rajon Rondo and Jrue Holiday will get the job done at both ends of the floor to give the Pelicans a fighting chance.

San Antonio Spurs (50/1): With Kawhi Leonard still not ruled out for the postseason and reportedly still working on returning, oddsmakers have held off on making San Antonio a 100-to-1 shot. If he’s unable to return, LaMarcus Aldridge, Rudy Gay, Dejonte Murray, Manu Ginobili, Patty Mills and Danny Green will form the core of a team likely to be competitive but not talented enough to take seriously in a series against a heavyweight like Golden State.

Minnesota Timberwolves (150/1): Can Jamal Crawford have a big series? How about Jeff Teague? The Wolves have two of the best players in the league in Butler and Towns, so Houston will have its hands full if those fringe guys can knock down shots and get going. After ending a lengthy postseason drought, Minnesota is playing with house money and will at least get some playoff experience out of the deal.

April 12, 2018
By Tony Mejia

The 2017-18 NBA Playoffs begin this weekend as 16 teams will look to capture the Larry O’Brien Championship Trophy. Even though the latest future odds are leaning to a two-horse race between Houston and Golden State, many pundits believe the rest of the field is a toss-up.

Delving into the first round series odds deeper, the Rockets (-7000) and Warriors (-1500) have been installed as the largest series favorites over the Timberwolves (+2000) and Spurs (+900) respectively.

Our top NBA analysts (see below) don’t believe we’ll see any upsets for the top two seeds in the Western Conference but they may give up a game or two.

The other two series are interesting in the Western Conference and it’s fair to say you can make an argument for all four of the teams seeded between No. 3 and No. 6.

No. 3 Portland (-225) vs. No. 6 New Orleans (+190)
No. 4 Oklahoma City (-135) vs. No. 5 Utah (+115)

Tony Mejia and Chris David believe New Orleans will defeat Portland even though the Trail Blazers have homecourt for the opening round.

Mejia explained, “Anthony Davis injured his knee five minutes into his first encounter with Portland, missed the second matchup entirely and scored 36 points in each of 2018’s meetings, shooting 31-for-47. The Trail Blazers aren’t going to be able to stop him, so with CJ McCollum mired in a slump and guards Rajon Rondo and Jrue Holiday healthy and playing at a high level at both ends, I see an upset coming in a 3-6 series between teams that were separated by just a single game and split 2-2 head-to-head. Damian Lillard scored 36 points and dished out 10 assists without a turnover to help the Blazers beat the Jazz on Wednesday, so hopefully his ankle issues are behind him and he’ll be ready to roll in what should be a fantastic series.”

In the 4-5 matchup, VegasInsider.com NBA expert Kevin Rogers believes Utah will advance, "The Jazz really took a hit by falling from third to fifth in the Western Conference playoffs by losing the season finale at Portland. Although that defeat prevented them from grabbing home-court advantage in the first round, the killer loss was falling to Atlanta last month as 14-point favorites, which snapped a nine-game winning streak."

"Utah lost three of four times to Oklahoma City this season, but all four matchups came prior to Christmas. That was a different Jazz team, as they finished 29-6 to go from a non-playoff team in January to nearly closing as the third seed. The Thunder have gone through plenty of ups and downs this season and posted a 4-1 record down the stretch to capture the fourth seed. However, Utah won a Game 7 on the road against the Clippers last season in the opening round and I would trust them to do the same this time at OKC," Rogers added.

If you’re looking for upsets this postseason, all three of our analysts are expecting at least one bomb to drop in the Eastern Conference. The only shared opinion is on Philadelphia, who will meet Miami in the first round.

Rogers told us why he’s buying Philadelphia to advance to the second round. He said, "It’s hard to fade the 76ers at this point, who enter the playoffs with 16 consecutive victories. Although a majority of those wins came against non-playoff teams, Philadelphia is feeling good about itself and should get Joel Embiid back in the lineup sometime during the first round. Miami staved off Washington for the Southeast title as both teams limped to the finish line, as the Heat split its final 10 games. For the exception of routing Cleveland, Miami beat Atlanta twice, Chicago, and New York down the stretch, while knocking off a Toronto squad in overtime that had nothing to play for."

David added, “Even if Embiid misses a game or two, I can’t put stock into Miami especially when you look at its road record. The Heat closed the season with a 5-15 mark as a visitor and only one of those wins came against a playoff team (Bucks). I don’t believe Philadelphia will run Miami off the court knowing the pair split all four games this season, but they’ve been the more consistent shooting team and that will be the difference in this series.”

While Rogers believes the Wizards can shock Toronto in the first round, Mejia expects the Raptors to do what they’ve done all season and stop Washington in its tracks.

Mejia explained his position, “Washington point guard John Wall participated in his first win since Jan. 19 against Boston on Tuesday and looks fresh enough to give the Raptors issues in his first action against them all season. The Wizards will go as far as he’ll take them given their limited depth after they ran out of gas down the stretch. Wall and Bradley Beal have to be great to overcome Toronto’s many advantages, but the fact they have to open on the road against the team that tied Houston for the NBA’s top home record makes it difficult to get behind their ability to flip the switch and make the East’s 1-8 matchup competitive.”

Due to injuries, the Boston-Milwaukee matchup isn’t your typical 2-7 playoff encounter. The Celtics (-150) are barely favored over the Bucks (+130) on the series price and Mejia believes Milwaukee will advance in a very tight series.

“The Celtics are hoping to have Marcus Smart back for the conference semifinals but will have their hands full getting there without him. Kyrie Irving is done and Gordon Hayward isn’t coming back either, so Brad Stevens is going to have to rely on Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum in larger roles to flourish against a team that has a lot of length and talent on the wing,” Mejia noted.

“Giannis Antetokounmpo has a chance to take the next step in his development by dominating a series and getting past the first round for the first time. He averaged 33.5 points and shot nearly 54 percent in four regular-season meetings with Boston and now has Jabari Parker and Malcolm Brogdon riding alongside him, plus Khris Middleton and Eric Bledsoe form a solid backcourt.”

The 4-5 matchups in the NBA are usually expected to be tight series yet the oddsmakers aren’t giving the Pacers (+480) much of a shot against LeBron James and the Cavaliers (-650).

Cleveland has burned bettors all season (30-49-3 ATS) and Chris David is buying the Pacers to knock off the Cavaliers and hand James his first ever defeat in an opening round playoff series.

David explained, “What LeBron has done throughout his career is remarkable and if he makes another trip to the finals with this cast, then hats off to him once again. While his production offensively has actually improved, the defense is lacking and it’s quite embarrassing to watch. The Cavaliers can’t stop anybody and they’re ranked near the bottom of the league in points allowed and defensive field goal percentage. Indiana isn’t a great defensive team by any means, but it’s certainly better than Cleveland.”

“Statistically, both teams are all but even offensively and their shooting percentages from the field and 3-point land are neck-and-neck. Both clubs produced identical 21-20 road records and Indiana (23-23) was one win better than Cleveland (22-23) versus teams above. 500. The Pacers took three of four from the Cavaliers in the regular season and two of those wins came by a combined six points. I note that because Indiana went 11-2 in games decided by three points this season, the best percentage in the league. Also, they were 3-0 in overtime games. That confidence from those victories should go a long way and certainly help the Pacers pull off a first round shocker,” David added.