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Picks: Free Service Plays for Friday, March 16, 2018

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(@shazman)
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Betting news, trends, odds and predictions for Friday, March 16, 2018 from various handicappers and websites

 
Posted : March 16, 2018 8:43 am
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Jeff Benton

Your Friday freebie is New Mexico State plus the points against Clemson.

Aggies in San Diego will at least have the crowd in their corner, and that may be enough to inspire this very dangerous New Mexico State team to the OUTRIGHT upset win over the wilting Clemson Tigers.

Let's take a quick look at the tale of the tape: In Neutral Site Games, the Aggies average 76 points per game for, and allow 67 points against. The Tigers come in with a 73 points per game for, and 70 points against average. NMSU also owns an offensive glass edge by +6 over Clemson on neutral floors.

Brad Brownell's team became a different team when they lost their stud forward Donte Grantham and his 14-plus points per game, and almost 7 boards a game. This is a team that staggered to a 3-5 straight up ledger their last 8 games played.

State comes in riding a 6-game winning streak, and they did score early season out-of-conference wins in Hawaii over both Davidson and Miami-Florida (ACC), so do not expect them to bow down to this ailing ACC edition. The Ags Zach Lofton is arguably the best player on the floor of Veijas Arena, and his forward sidekick, Jemerrio Jones and his 13+ boards per game will keep Clemson from dominating on the glass.

Dangerous spot for the higher-seeded Tigers, and again, an outright win would not be a surprise at all. The fact we are nabbing a couple of baskets only makes me like this selection better.

Friday night dog barking loud with New Mexico State.

4* NEW MEXICO STATE

 
Posted : March 16, 2018 8:53 am
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Eric Schroeder

After hitting Buffalo outright over Arizona yesterday with my free play, tonight I'm playing the Bucknell plus the points against Michigan State.

Michigan State is making this a statement game, as it believes it should be more than a No. 3 seed. And I worry the Spartans will overplay their hand, and make costly mistakes that will allow the Bucknell Bison to hang around.

Sure, the Bison are at a disadvantage in terms of caliber of play, but yesterday Buffalo was in the same position, against Arizona. One might think the Spartans will have to play well below their best for a shot at an upset. And we all know it’s hard to imagine coach Tom Izzo allowing Michigan State to let down in this game.

But I have to remind you the Big Ten has had nearly two full weeks of rest, and I wonder if Michigan State comes out flat in this game.

I'm guessing there will be spells of lethargic play for Michigan State, which I'm guessing will win this between 6 and 8.

2* BUCKNELL

 
Posted : March 16, 2018 8:54 am
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Tommy Brunson

Must respect the Bison of Bucknell, as this is a school that not only has played on this stage before, but have had success on it. Just Arkansas and Kansas who they bested in the Big Dance. They have also faced Butler and West Virginia in this round, so no, they will not be "freaked out" to be playing again on this stage.

Problem is, Tom Izzo's team has been flying under the radar, and they do have the added benefit of playing this game in-state in Detroit! Michigan State plays defense, can score the rock, has 5-players that average double-digits, including a beast by the name of Miles Bridges, and oh yeah, their last game was all the way back on March the 3rd as the Big Ten played their conference tourney early this year.

Sparty will be fresh as a daisy, and while the Bisons do have 3 seniors on their team, and will indeed hang around for a while with the points, I don't doubt for one minute that this opening round Friday night game in front of a very friendly crowd will be a nice salve for Tom Izzo who took plenty of heat this season - and still may face more to come!

Bucknell was just 5-5 against the spread in their limited lined games this season, and if they were catching just a few points more, I might be interested in backing them. My opinion is due to their past competitive efforts, this line is actually a little lower than it really should be since this is pretty much a "home" game for the Spartans.

Michigan State covers tonight.

3* MICHIGAN STATE

 
Posted : March 16, 2018 8:54 am
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Jimmy Boyd
Mar 16 '18, 12:15 PM in 2h
NCAA-B | Providence vs Texas A&M
Play on: Texas A&M -3½ -101 at pinnacle

Free Pick on Texas A&M -

I'm recommending a play on the Aggies as a short favorite in Friday's 1st round action out of the West Region. Texas A&M didn't have the season that most were expecting. Many thought this was going to be one of the best teams in the country when the preseason picks were being made. They still finished the season 20-12 and posted a 9-9 mark in the SEC, but because those lofty expectations weren't met, no one is really giving this team a shot to make a run in the tournament.

I don't know if they will make it to the second week or not, but I like their chances of advancing to play another game this weekend.

Providence is a team that likes to play at a slow tempo and their offense is built around getting to the free throw line. It's also worth noting that they aren't a great 3-point shooting team. I believe that's going to be a problem against the length of Texas A&M. The Aggies are also one of the better teams in the country at not fouling.

Not only will Texas A&M's size and athleticism be a problem for Providence's offense, I think the Friars are going to have a really tough time keeping the Aggies from scoring at will in the paint. Teams that can bully Providence inside have had their way and I think it will be a recipe for a win and cover for the Aggies. Take Texas A&M!

 
Posted : March 16, 2018 9:36 am
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Jack Jones
Mar 16 '18, 1:30 PM in 3h
NCAA-B | Marshall vs Wichita State
Play on: Marshall +12 -105 at 5Dimes

Jack’s Free Pick Friday: Marshall +12

The Marshall Thundering Herd are a tough team to prepare for because they spread you out and shoot 28 3-pointers per game. Dan D’Antoni uses the same system at Marshall that his brother Mike D’Antoni uses with the Houston Rockets in the NBA, and the Phoenix Suns before that.

The result has been a high-octane offense that averages 84.3 points per game this season. The Thundering Herd’s top six scores this season all shot 32.5% or better from 3-point range, led by Jon Elmore (22.8 ppg, 6.9 apg, 6.0 rpg), C.J. Burks (20.5 ppg) and Ajdin Penava I(15.5 ppg, 8.5 rpg, 3.9 bpg).

Defense has been an issue with the Wichita State Shockers all season. They are giving up 71.3 points per game and have allowed 71 or more points in eight of their last nine games coming in. They also rank 3rd-to-last in the American Conference in defending the 3-pointer. They give up 9 made 3’s per game and 36.3% shooting from distance this season.

This will certainly be one of the most entertaining games of the first round, and the Thundering Herd have the firepower to keep it close. Wichita State is 0-6 ATS vs. teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game after 15-plus games this season. The Shockers are 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall. Wichita State is 7-20-1 ATS in its last 28 neutral site games. The Thundering Herd are 6-1 ATS in their last seven neutral site games. Bet Marshall Friday.

 
Posted : March 16, 2018 9:36 am
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Cappers Club
Mar 16 '18, 9:40 PM in 12h
NCAA-B | Syracuse vs TCU
Play on: Syracuse +4½ -108 at 5Dimes

This play just missed out on our premium card. The Syracuse Orange and the TCU Horned Frogs face off on Friday, and in this game the underdogs have the value.

It's tournament time which means the Syracuse Orange are ready for business. They have a way during the tournament to really affect their opponents with the 2-3 zone, and to get the opposing team to slow it down.

TCU is a good offensive team, but the offense is trending downwards. Over the last five games they are averaging eight points less than the season average.

That will be enough to keep this game close, and that gives the Orange the Value.

Back the Orange.

5* FREE Cappers Club Play on Syracuse

 
Posted : March 16, 2018 9:36 am
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Alex Smart
Mar 16 '18, 7:35 PM in 10h
NBA | Mavs vs Raptors
Play on: Raptors -11 -107 at pinnacle

The Raptors enter this game on fire having won 10 straight games and 18 of their L/19 overall. Their in top form, and I'm betting their capable of smashing the Dallas Mavericks here tonight as DD home chalk. I'm always looking for an advantage, and don't like to lay a lot of lumber, but sometimes advantages can also be had with favorites, which is the case tonight. I know the Raptors played last night, but this is the best conditioned team in the NBA, and have a knack as a unit to pacing themselves accordingly. No lead against this team is safe, and they must be in their current form be considered as viable opponents for even Golden State and Houston. With said, I'm recommending we lay down the hammer with the Raptors and fade Mark Cuban troops here in this spot play.

Raptors are 28-5 at home this season, winning by an average of 11.6 ppg.

Note: Toronto has an average margin of victory of 12.2 points during the above mentioned 10 game winning streak.TORONTO is 8-0 ATS L/8 when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) winning by an average of 16.8 ppg.

TORONTO is 16-4 ATS L/20 vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game over the last few seasons.

Anomaly or not its interesting to note that DALLAS is 1-9 ATS on Friday nights this season.

Play on Toronto to cover

 
Posted : March 16, 2018 9:37 am
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Ricky Tran
Mar 16 '18, 7:25 PM in 9h
NCAA-B | College of Charleston vs Auburn
Play on: College of Charleston +10½ -109 at pinnacle

Ricky's Free play on the Charleston Cougars +11 :

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In tonight's game there's no doubt that the loss of sophomore forward Anfernee McLemore is particularly significant for Auburn. He was injured on February 17, after playing just 13 minutes in a loss at South Carolina. Since the injury the Tigers have lost four of six games (including the loss to the Gamecocks). Two of the last three times these teams have played each other, the game was decided by four points.

Key Trends:

- The Cougars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.

- The Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.

- The Cougars are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games versus teams with a winning up record.

Verdict: Take Charleston +11

 
Posted : March 16, 2018 9:37 am
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Mark Wilson
Mar 16 '18, 1:05 PM in 3h
MLB | Braves vs Pirates
Play on: Braves +125 at GTBets

Braves

 
Posted : March 16, 2018 9:38 am
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Ray Monohan
Mar 16 '18, 2:00 PM in 4h
NCAA-B | Georgia State vs Cincinnati
Play on: Cincinnati -14 +102 at pinnacle

Cincinnati -14

Cincinnati was able to pull the American sweep winning the regular season title and tournament title. They are currently on a seven-game win streak and red hot entering this one.

The Bearcats are just simply going to be too overwhelming here. They rank 2nd in the defense in the entire nation and will cause a lot of issues for GSU when it comes to finding open looks.

Offensively, Cincinnati will have their way as well. The Panthers hold the 106th ranked defensive efficiency in the NCAA as they are just too slow and too small to guard teams like the Bearcats.

Some trends to note. Bearcats are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS loss.

Lay the number here.

Back Cincinnati.

Good Luck, Razor Ray.

Friday 5* FREE CBB ATS Play

 
Posted : March 16, 2018 9:38 am
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Doug Upstone
Mar 16 '18, 9:20 PM in 11h
NCAA-B | Maryland-Baltimore County vs Virginia
Play on: OVER 121 -107

On Friday night in college hoops, Play Over on neutral court teams like Virginia, when the total is 129.5 or less, after going under the total by 54 or more points total in their last ten games. In this exact spot, the OVER is 28-4, 87.5 percent, the past five years.

 
Posted : March 16, 2018 9:39 am
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Scott Spreitzer
Mar 16 '18, 6:50 PM in 9h
NCAA-B | Kansas State vs Creighton
Play on: Creighton -1 -105 at 5Dimes

I'm recommending a play on the Creighton Blue Jays on Friday. Intriguing matchup in this 8-9 battle. Marcus Foster, arguably the key play for the Jays began his college career at Kansas State, but attributes his development on and off the court to Greg McDermott and Creighton University. He's been a true leader and is the player who kept this team focused and got them back on track after the loss of big man, Martin Krampelj. Creighton beat Villanova late in the season and came within a point of beating another 1-seed when they lost 72-71 to Xavier on last-second points. Besides Foster, the Jays have another tough matchup for the Wildcats in Kyrie Thomas, a forward who will one day play at the next level. They're a disciplined team that wants to turn up the heat at both ends of the floor and we don't believe Bruce Weber's troops will be able to keep up for the entire 40. The Jays enter on a 21-10 ATS non-conference run and we'll back them here. We're recommending a play on Creighton on Friday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

 
Posted : March 16, 2018 9:39 am
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Sal Michaels
Mar 16 '18, 2:45 PM in 5h
NCAA-B | Lipscomb vs North Carolina
Play on: OVER 159½ -110

Free Play on Lipscomb vs North Carolina over 159½ -110

 
Posted : March 16, 2018 9:39 am
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Kenny Walker
Mar 16 '18, 4:05 PM in 6h
MLB | Mariners vs Rangers
Play on: Mariners +110 at GTBets

Free Pick on Mariners

 
Posted : March 16, 2018 9:40 am
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