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College Basketball Betting News and Trends For Friday, March 16, 2018

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shazman

(@shazman)

Posts: 57671

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Betting news, trends, odds and predictions for Friday, March 16, 2018 from various handicappers and websites

Posted : March 16, 2018 8:13 am

shazman

(@shazman)

Posts: 57671

Member Moderator

Topic starter

Friday’s games
Day Games
Providence lost in Big East final Saturday; all three tournament games went to OT. Friars are #117 experience team, starting three seniors- they lost five of last six first round games in this tournament. Providence is 7-7 in last 14 games overall; they’re 9-4 outside Big East (#191 NC sked), 6-9 vs top 50 teams. Texas A&M is 3-4 in its last seven games; they’re 11-1 outside SEC (NC sked #38) but were only 9-10 inside SEC. they’re #233 experience team. Over the last five years, favorites are 12-8 against the spread in #7-10 seed 1st round games.

Purdue won 15 of last 17 first round games, covering four of last six; Boilermakers start four seniors, are #52 experience team- they make 42% of their 3’s. Purdue is 13-2 outside Big 14 (#145 NC sked); they’re 12-0 vs teams ranked outside top 100. Cal State-Fullerton won eight of last ten games; they’ve got good guards, are #3 team in country in %age of their points scored on foul line. Titans are #235 experience team- they’re 5-5 outside Big West (#80 NC sked); they’re 1-4 vs top 100 teams. Big West teams are 2-5 vs spread in this round the last seven years.

Dan D’Antoni is Marshall’s coach; his team plays fast (#6 pace), just like the Rockets. Marshall won 10 of its last 12 games; they’re #260 experience team that is 9-4 outside C-USA (NC sked #334). Thundering Herd makes 35.6% of its 3’s; 46% of their shots are 3’s. C-USA teams won their 1st round game four of last five years. Wichita State is 16-0 vs teams ranked outside top 100; Shockers are #13 experience team, but teams shoot 36.3% on arc against them (#247). Wichita’s last six wins are all by 8 or fewer points- they won last five first round games.

Cincinnati won its last seven games; they force turnovers 22.3% of time, have #2 eFG% defense in country. Bearcats are 11-2 outside AAC, vs NC schedule #295- they’re 11-4 vs top 100 teams. Cincy plays slow (#322 pace). Georgia State is #101 experience team; they make 39.1% of their 3’s, take lot of them. Panthers have great PG in Simonds, but have thin bench (#342 in bench minutes played); they beat Tulane of AAC 70-59 back in November. Last four years, #2-seeds are 9-7 vs spread in 1st round games. Sun Belt teams covered three of last four 1st round games.

North Carolina split its last six games overall, went 11-2 vs #15 non-league schedule; they won their last 15 first round games, but are 5-7-1 vs spread in last 13. Tar Heels rebound 38.4% of their own misses, #2 in country; they’re 7-1 vs teams ranked outside top 100. Lipscomb is in NCAAs for first time; they won 12 of last 13 games, are 8-5 vs NC schedule #30, but are 2-4 vs top 100 teams, with losses by 22-23-10-32 points. Bisons get 22.3% of their points on foul line (#27). Atlantic Sun teams are 3-2 vs spread in first round the last five years.

Arkansas is #43 experience team that is 10-2 outside SEC (#135 NC sked), 6-8 vs top 50 teams; Razorbacks are in NCAAs for 3rd time in last four years- they won their last three first round games. Hogs are 8-3 in last 11 games; they start three seniors. Butler is #204 experience team that lost six of last nine games, with two OT losses; Bulldogs are 10-3 outside Big East (NC sked #157), 4-10 vs top 50 teams. Butler turns ball only 15.7% of time (#28); Arkansas forces TO’s 19.4% of time. Last three years, Big East teams are 17-7 vs SEC opponents.

West Virginia forces turnovers 23.4% of time; they’re #196 experience team that is 11-2 vs teams ranked outside top 50- they’re 11-1 outside Big X (#297 NC sked). Mountaineers won five of last seven games; they start pair of senior guards, are 3-4 vs spread in last seven 1st round games. Murray State is in NCAAs for first time in six years; they lost by 5 to Middle Tennessee, by 4 to Auburn in high-profile non-league games. Racers won their last 13 games, are #110 experience team- their PG Stark is a senior, but Murray isn’t deep (#304 in bench minutes).

Nevada has injury issues; PG Drew tore his achilles, Caroline is playing thru a broken finger, Martin is playing thru foot issues. Wolf Pack lost by 11 to Iowa St of Big X in first round LY; they lost twice to San Diego State in last two weeks, were down 30 at the half in their last game, but Musselman is an NBA coach and Nevada gets 35% of its point behind arc, which negates Texas shot blocker Bamba. Longhorns are #336 experience team with depth issues; they’re 4-6 in last 10 games. Last four years, Mountain West teams are 1-4 vs spread in this round.

Night Games
Creighton star Foster played his first two years of college ball at Kansas State, which makes this 8-9 game more interesting. Bluejays lost six of last nine games; they’re 6-7 since 6-9 Krampelj was lost for year. Creighton is #185 experience team that is 10-2 outside Big East (NC sked #291), but 4-7 vs top 50 teams- they shoot 37.6% on arc and take lot of them. K-State is #242 experience team that is 7-10 vs top 50 teams, 10-2 outside Big X (#321 NC sked). Wildcats start three sophs, two juniors. Last three years, Big X teams are 6-5 when playing Big East teams.

Bucknell (+13) lost 86-80 to West Virginia in 1st round LY, in a 4-13 game. Bison are #82 team in experience, starting three seniors- they suspended backup F Moore for this game; he didn’t play in Patriot tourney. Michigan State won only one tourney game last two years; Spartans are #281 experience team, starting four sophs and a freshman. Sparty opponents are shooting 38.4% inside arc this season. MSU makes 41.3% of its 3-pointers. Patriot League teams are 1-4 vs spread in this round last five years; Bucknell is 3-2 vs spread in this round.

Texas Southern started season 0-13 in a cash grab; son of school’s AD is on this team, which lost games by 7 at Clemson, 6 at Oregon, 6 at Wyoming- they also got smoked in several games, but they’ve won eight games in row. they shouldn’t be in awe; 11 of their 14 non-league opponents are top 120 teams. Xavier won 13 of last 15 games; they’re #123 experience team that plays pace #61. musketeers are 12-1 outside Big East; they’re 10-0 vs teams ranked outside top 100, with six wins by 19+ points. SWAC teams covered three of last four games in this round.

Since 2009, CAA teams are 9-2 vs spread in first round games; Charleston is #60 experience team that won 14 of its last 15 games. Cougars took trip to Alaska in November, went 3-2 in OT games this year, are #1 team in country in Minutes Continuity, a KenPom stat that measures stability of a roster. Auburn lost four of last six games after starting season 23-3; Tigers are in NCAA for first time since 2003- they’re #308 experience team. None of eight guys in Auburn’s rotation are seniors. Charleston wants a slower pace (#323) than Auburn (#21) does.

UMBC’s coach is Ryan Odom, whose dad Dave was once an assistant at Virginia. Retrievers are in NCAAs for first time in 10 years; they’re #99 experience team that makes 38.2% of its 3’s, and they take lot of them. UMBC has two senior G’s; they won 8 of last 9 games, winning at Vermont in America East final, after having lost 23 in row to UVM. Virginia won its last eight games, is #162 experience team that plays pace #351, slowest in country. Cavaliers are 9-0 vs teams raked outside top 100. Last three years, #1-seeds are 7-5 against the spread in first round games.

Missouri senior F Barnett (DUI) is suspended for this game, didn’t travel with team; freshman star Porter plays his 2nd game of season after sitting out whole year with back injury- he took 17 shots in 23:00 in his debut in 62-60 loss to Georgia in SEC tourney. Tigers lost four of last six games; they’re likely to start three freshmen in first NCAA game in five years. Florida State won 83-66 at Florida of SEC; they’re 11-1 outside ACC, but vs NC sked #331. Seminoles are 4-6 in last ten games- they play pace #1, are 3-0 in OT games this season.

When he was coach at Pitt, Jamie Dixon won his last five games with Syracuse. Syracuse played all five starters 34:00+ in Wednesday’s win over Arizona St; two guys played whole 40:00- their bench plays least minutes in country. Orange made Final Four as 10-seed two years ago; they can’t be dismissed here- their trip to Detroit is a short one. Syracuse is #309 experience team; they’re 4-5 in last nine games. TCU is #74 experience team that is 12-0 outside Big X (NC sked #178); Frogs split their last 10 games- they shoot 40% on arc.

New Mexico State is in NCAAs for 6th time in seven years under three head coaches; Aggies lost last nine 1st round games (3-6 vs spread); their last NCAA win was in 1993. State is experience team #76 that starts three seniors- they beat Miami 63-54 in Hawai’i so doubtful they’ll be awed by an ACC opponent. Clemson is in NCAA’s for first time in seven years; Tigers went 7-6 after losing big guy Grantham for year- they’re 15-2 vs teams ranked outside top 50. Clemson is #58 experience team; they play pace #296, Aggies play pace #173.

Other tournaments
Austin Peay is 8-4 in its last dozen games; they’re 3-7 outside OVC, beating Sun Belt’s Troy by hoop Dec 19. Governors force turnovers 22.2% of time (#12). UL-Monroe won seven of last ten games; they’re 4-5 outside Sun Belt, losing by 19 at Jacksonville State of OVC Dec 9. ULM is #68 experience team that plays pace #284- they get 40.9% of their points outside the arc.

Wofford got a bye in this tournament; they haven’t played in 12 days; Terriers are 6-4 outside SoCon, with a win in Chapel Hill over the Tar Heels. Wofford is #299 experience team that has made 39.9% of its 3’s (#18). Central Michigan won 94-89 in Ft Wayne Monday, using three starters 33:00+. Chippewas are 9-2 outside MAC, but their NC schedule is ranked #340.

_________________________________________

Posted : March 16, 2018 8:14 am

shazman

(@shazman)

Posts: 57671

Member Moderator

Topic starter

Friday - Session 1
March 14, 2018
By David Schwab
VegasInsider.com

Next up is a matchup between Cal State Fullerton and Purdue. Session 1 continues with the Thundering Herd of Marshall tangling with Wichita State and it comes to an end in a clash between Georgia State and Cincinnati.

West Region (Charlotte, NC)
No. 10 Providence vs. No. 7 Texas A&M (CBS, 12:15 p.m. ET)

Opening Odds: Texas A&M -3 ½, 138 ½

Betting Matchup

Providence made a run to Big East Tournament Championship before coming up short against top-seeded Villanova 76-66 as a 13-point underdog. The most impressive victory was against Xavier in the semifinals with a 75-72 win as a seven-point underdog. The Friars posted a 5-1 record against the spread in their last six games with the total staying UNDER in four of those contests.

The Aggies were in the middle of the pack in the SEC at 9-9 straight-up. Their stay in the conference tournament was limited to a 71-70 loss to Alabama as 3 ½-point favorites. Texas A&M comes into this tournament at 2-5 ATS in its last seven games and it has lost four of those games SU. It has averaged 75.0 points per game behind six different players averaging at least nine points per game.

Betting Trends

-- The Friars have failed to cover in 13 of their last 16 nonconference games and the total has stayed UNDER in five of their last seven NCAA Tournament games.

-- The Aggies are 1-4 ATS in their last five games in this tournament and the total has gone OVER in seven of their last 10 games.

-- This will be the first meeting in this Big East/SEC tilt.

East Region (Detroit, MI)
No. 15 CS Fullerton Titans vs. No. 2 Purdue Boilermakers (TruTV, 12:40 p.m. ET)

Opening Odds: Purdue -21, 145

Betting Matchup

The Titans earned a berth in the Big Dance with their successful run to the Big West Conference Tournament Championship. They were fourth in the standings in the regular season at 10-6 before going on a 3-0 run both SU and ATS. The clincher was a 71-55 romp over UC Irvine as 2 ½-point underdogs. The total has stayed UNDER or ended as a PUSH in 13 of their last 15 games.

Purdue was tied with Ohio State for the second-best record in the Big Ten at 15-3. Its run at the tournament title ended in the championship with a 75-66 loss to Michigan as a four-point favorite. This snapped a SU five-game winning streak, but going back to late January, the Boilermakers have failed to cover in 11 of their last 13 games with one contest ending as a PUSH.

Betting Trends

-- The Titans have gone 4-1-1 ATS in their last six neutral-site games and the total has stayed UNDER in 13 of their last 16 games played at a neutral site.

-- The Boilermakers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven NCAA Tournament games and the total has gone OVER in 11 or their last 15 nonconference games.

-- These two teams have never played one another in recent memory.

East Region (San Diego, CA)
No. 13 Marshall vs. No. 4 Wichita State (TNT, 1:30 p.m. ET)

Opening Odds: Wichita State -12, 166

Betting Matchup

The Thundering Herd made a run to the Conference USA Tournament title as the No. 4 seed in the field. They finished conference play at 12-6 SU after beating the top-seeded Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 76-67 as 11 ½-point road underdogs in their regular season finale. Marshall toppled Western Kentucky 67-66 to win the C-USA Tournament as a 5 ½-point underdog.

Wichita State’s first season in the AAC ended with a 14-4 SU record, which was tied with Houston for second place. The Shockers bowed-out of the conference tournament with a 77-74 loss to the Cougars as three-point favorites. They failed to cover in seven of their last eight outings and the total has gone OVER in 13 of their last 15 games. Wichita State is averaging 83.0 PPG.

Betting Trends

-- The Thundering Herd have covered in six of their last seven games at a neutral site and the total has gone OVER in their last six games played on Friday.

-- The Shockers are 4-1 ATS in their last five matchups against C-USA and the total has stayed UNDER in their last five NCAA Tournament games.

-- This will be the first meeting between the two.

South Region (Nashville, TN)
No. 15 Georgia State vs. No. 2 Cincinnati (TBS, 2:00 p.m. ET)

Opening Odds: Cincinnati -14, 129 ½

Betting Matchup

Georgia State earned its invitation to the Big Dance with a 74-61 victory over Texas-Arlington in the title game of the Sun Belt Tournament. The Panthers covered as two-point favorites to run their current winning streak to four games both SU and ATS. Sophomore guard D’Marcus Simonds led the team in scoring this season with 21.1 PPG and he scored 27 points his last time out.

The Bearcats pulled off the daily double by winning both the AAC regular season title as well as the conference tournament. They snuck past Houston 56-55 in that title game to extend their current winning streak to seven games. After failing to cover as 4 ½-point favorites against the Cougars, they dropped to 2-4 ATS in their last six contests. Cincinnati has four different players averaging at least 11 PPG.

Betting Trends

-- The Panthers have gone 4-1 ATS in their last five games played at a neutral site and the total has stayed UNDER in their last six neutral-site games.

-- The Bearcats are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games in this tournament and the total has stayed UNDER in seven of their last eight games at a neutral site.

-- These two teams have never played one another before.

Posted : March 16, 2018 8:21 am

shazman

(@shazman)

Posts: 57671

Member Moderator

Topic starter

Friday - Session 2
March 15, 2018
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

West Region – Charlotte – Spectrum Arena
#15 Lipscomb vs. #2 North Carolina (-19 ½, 162) – 2:45 PM EST – CBS

The Tar Heels (25-10 SU, 19-14-1 ATS) begin their title defense not too far from Chapel Hill as they make the short trip to Charlotte. UNC fell short to Virginia in the ACC championship, 71-63, but that isn’t the worst thing in the world. Under Roy Williams, the Tar Heels have won three national titles, as they never captured the conference tournament championship in that season (2005, 2009, and 2017).

During last year’s run to the championship, North Carolina crushed Texas Southern in the opening round, while its final three victories came by a combined nine points. The Tar Heels posted a 7-6 ATS record this season as a double-digit favorite, while routing Lipscomb in its only matchup back in 2010 by an 80-66 score.

Lipscomb (23-9 SU, 4-2 ATS) caught fire towards the end of season by winning nine of its final 10 regular season games, while capping off the Atlantic Sun tournament title by beating regular season champ Florida Gulf Coast, 108-96. Since the A-Sun doesn’t have lines on their regular season games, the Bisons posted a 1-2 ATS record in non-conference play, although it lost by double-digits to Alabama, Tennessee, and Purdue.

The last defending champion to cover in its first tournament game in the following season was Duke back in 2011, as champs in this situation own an 0-4 ATS record in this span (both UConn and Kentucky went to the NIT the next season). Meanwhile, this is the first tournament appearance ever for Lipscomb, as the last A-Sun team to grab a tourney victory was Florida Gulf Coast in the 2016 play-in game.

East Region – Detroit – Little Caesars Arena
#10 Butler (-1 ½, 151 ½) vs. #7 Arkansas – 2:45 PM EST – truTV

Butler (20-13 SU, 15-17 ATS) struggled down the stretch by losing six of its final nine games, including a 19-point setback to Villanova in the Big East semifinals. The Bulldogs are back in the NCAA tournament for the fourth straight season, while winning their opening round game in six consecutive tourney trips since 2010. Butler is currently riding an 0-4 ATS run, while going 2-7 ATS the last nine games since a 5-1 ATS stretch to close out January.

Arkansas (23-11 SU, 17-16-1 ATS) picked up a pair of victories in the SEC tournament over South Carolina and Florida prior to an 18-point setback to Tennessee in the semifinals. The Razorbacks started conference play at 1-9 ATS, but rebounded with covers in six of their final eight SEC contests. The Hogs struggled in the role of an underdog by posting a 5-7 ATS record, including losses to North Carolina, Auburn, Florida, Texas A&M, and Missouri.

Last season, the Razorbacks knocked out another Big East team by beating Seton Hall in a pick-em role, 77-71 before getting ousted by eventual national champion North Carolina in the round of 32. In each of the past three seasons, Butler has covered the number in the opening round of the tournament, while its last ATS loss in the first round came back in 2009 to LSU.

East Region – San Diego – Viejas Arena
#12 Murray State vs. #5 West Virginia (-10 ½, 145 ½) – 4:00 PM EST – TNT

Following a 15-1 start to the season, West Virginia (24-10 SU, 15-15 ATS) lost five of its next six games. The Mountaineers rebounded with six wins in the next nine contests and reached the Big 12 championship before ultimately losing to Kansas for the third time this season. WVU has qualified for the Sweet 16 in two of the past three seasons, including in 2017 as the Mountaineers were bounced by Gonzaga.

Murray State (26-5 SU, 17-11 ATS) is no stranger to pulling an upset in the Big Dance as the Racers have won a pair of tournament games since 2010. Granted, the Racers are back in the tournament for the first time since 2012 as they grabbed the Ohio Valley tournament title after beating Jacksonville State and Belmont. Murray State is riding a 13-game winning streak since losing at Belmont on January 18, while its biggest underdog spot of the season was as a 4 ½-point ‘dog in an 81-77 setback at Auburn in December.

The Mountaineers had issues covering as a hefty favorite by compiling a dreadful 2-8 ATS mark when laying at least nine points. What’s even more shocking is the three outright losses to Oklahoma State, Iowa State, and Kentucky as heavy chalk, while failing to cash in their last two opportunities as a tournament favorite of 6 ½ points or more. Ohio Valley squads own a 3-2 ATS record in the past five NCAA tournament appearances, but are 0-5 SU since Murray State knocked off Colorado State in 2012.

South Region – Nashville – Bridgestone Arena
#10 Texas (-1, 143 ½) vs. #7 Nevada – 4:30 PM EST – TBS

It’s a battle of Big 12 and Mountain West in Nashville as these two teams are hooking up for the first time since Nevada beat Texas in the opening round of the 2005 NCAA tournament. The Longhorns (19-14 SU, 15-14 ATS) were one of several bubble teams that squeezed through on Selection Sunday despite a 4-6 record in their final 10 games. The two wins that sealed Texas’ tourney invite came against West Virginia and Oklahoma in the last two weeks of the season, but are currently on an 0-4 ATS run in the favorite role.

The Wolf Pack (27-7 SU, 16-14-3 ATS) built up strong enough credentials to warrant an at-large bid in spite of getting crushed by San Diego State in the MWC semifinals, 90-73. Nevada didn’t have much luck against Big 12 schools this season by losing to Texas Tech and TCU, as those two defeats came after an 8-0 SU/ATS start. In the last 25 games of the season, the Wolf Pack put together an 8-14-3 ATS mark, but nine of those ATS losses came as a favorite of nine points or more.

Nevada graduated from CBI champions in 2016 to an NCAA tournament berth in 2017, but the Wolf Pack fell to another Big 12 club in a first round defeat to Iowa State. The Longhorns haven’t won a tournament game since 2014, while losing on a half-court buzzer-beater to Northern Iowa in 2016.

Posted : March 16, 2018 8:23 am

shazman

(@shazman)

Posts: 57671

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Topic starter

Friday - Session 3
March 16, 2018
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com

South Region – Charlotte – Spectrum Arena
#9 Kansas State vs. #8 Creighton (-1, 144) – 6:50 PM EST – TNT

The Blue Jays can count on a motivated senior leader in Marcus Foster, who started his career at Kansas State under head coach Bruce Weber and looked like the next Mitch Richmond as a freshman in Manhattan. He didn't make it through his sophomore season

Kicked off the team for a violation of rules, Foster ended up transferring to Creighton, where he could be playing the final game of his college career if things don't go well against the Wildcats. No one involved disputes that Foster wasn't immature. He wasn't picked on or blind-sided, but that doesn't change the fact that he'll be getting an opportunity for a little revenge. Both have said all the right things this week and will likely have a nice exchange at some point, but for the 40 minutes the Blue Jays or on the floor, everything Foster does on the floor will carry traces of "I told you so" on the floor.

Foster leads Creighton with a 20.3 points-per-game average and gets plenty of help from Khyri Thomas, another likely pro who comes off a disappointing 8-point effort in the Big East Tournament loss to Providence, snapping an 11-game run of scoring in double-digits. He averaged 18 points per game in that span, so Creighton will need him to rebound.

Foster has shot poorly in a pair of NCAA Tournament losses, shooting a combined 13-for-37, including 2-for-14 on 3-pointers. His teams have gone 0-2 in the NCAA Tournament. A date with top-ranked Virginia awaits Friday's survivor.

The Blue Jays have slumped of late, dropping four of their last six games. They'll be looking to avoid their first three-game losing streak of the season.

Power forward Dean Wade led the Wildcats in scoring this season, but missed the team's Big 12 Tournament exit with a stress fracture of his foot that is expected to hinder him in this one. He's a game-time decision, but won't be at 100 percent if he suits up as expected.

K-State junior guard Barry Brown left the Big 12 Tourney loss to in-state rival Kansas after a severe poke to the eye drew blood a few minutes in, but he's been practicing and should be good to go without limitations.

An x-factor to watch for K-State is 6-foot-9 sophomore Makol Mawien, who tried to pick up his team without Wade by scoring 29 points. He shot 19-for-26 in the Big 12 Tournament and has scored in double-figures three straight games, something he hadn't done all season.

If Wade can play well and Mawien continues his surge, Creighton could be ill-equipped to handle the Wildcats over the course of a full game, having lost top rebounder Martin Krampelj to a torn ACL back in January.

Kansas State has gone 11-7 ATS since Jan. 10. In 2018, the under has prevailed in 13 of 20 Wildcats' games. The low-side is 10-7 in Creighton contests since Dec. 31.

Midwest Region – Detroit – Little Caesar's Arena
#14 Bucknell vs. #3 Michigan State (-14.5, 148) – 7:10 PM EST – CBS

It's been a strange and often trying season for Michigan State, which has been ranked among the nation's elite teams and won the Big Ten regular season title, setting a school record with 29 regular-season wins. Sparty bowed out in disappointing fashion against rival Michigan, so we'll see how they respond.

It won't be their first dose of adversity. The U.S. gymnastics scandal threatened to scar the program by shedding light on past transgressions once again, forcing Tom Izzo to address some difficult questions. At one point, he actually had to come out and say that he had no plans to step down.

On the floor, Izzo has been blessed with a pair of likely NBA lottery picks in sophomore Miles Bridges and freshman Jaren Jackson, Jr. Both are versatile, dynamic athletes that make the MSU frontcourt arguably the nation's most talented.

It's hard to imagine a Patriot League being able to adequately match up with such special talents, but Bucknell is up to the challenge and has the personnel to give it an honest shot. Center Nana Foulland has been the best big man in his conference for years. Forward Zach Thomas averages over 20 points and nine rebounds, leading the league in both categories. He seemingly always makes the right play and has been starting games for four seasons.

Bucknell reached the NIT in the first two seasons featuring this year's senior class, so nobody was around for the C.J. McCollum-led upset of Duke back in 2012, but most everyone was around for last year's thrilling game against West Virginia that resulted in an 86-80 loss exactly one year ago on March 16.

Bison guards Stephen Brown and Kimbal McKenzie combined to score 41 points in the loss to the Mountaineers, shooting 8-for-14 from 3-point range. If Bucknell has any shot at an upset, both will have to be a factor.

Making matters most challenging for the Patriot League champs will be the venue, since the Spartans will undoubtedly benefit from being placed in Detroit's new downtown Little Caesar's Arena, removing the possibility of fans adopting the underdog mid-game. Rival Michigan won in Wichita on Thursday, so even those faithful to the Maize and Blue won't be a factor.

This will only be the second meeting ever between these schools, who squared off in Nov. 2003. Michigan State won at home 64-52.

Bucknell will have to handle Michigan State's size without the assistance of suspended forward Bruce Moore, who started 22 games but has been shelved for violating team rules.

Michigan State leads the nation in field goal percentage defense, allowing opponents to shoot 36.6 percent. The Spartans are also tops in assists (19.3) and blocked shots (7.4).

Oddsmakers have taken advantage of Michigan State's superiority and brand by putting point spreads just out of reach. Despite a 14-3 overall record, Izzo's squad is just 4-11-2 against the number in that span. Six of MSU's last seven games have gone under. Bucknell is 5-5 ATS in games that have been included on the board.

West Region – Nashville – Bridgestone Arena
#16 Texas Southern vs. #1 Xavier (-19.5, 160) – 7:20 PM EST – TBS

The Musketeers are generally considered the weakest of the No. 1 seeds, so if there's ever a time that a 16 is going to make history and pull off an upset, this could be it. Texas Southern is coached by veteran former Bob Knight protege Mike Davis, who has taken Indiana, UAB and now Texas Southern dancing. He's 7-8 in this event, although most of the wins came in the run to the 2002 National Championship game.

Davis has taken the Tigers to the NCAA Tournament in four of the last five years, but finally got over the hump and won a game on Wednesday in convincing fashion, crushing MEAC champ NC Central 64-46. Texas Southern finished second in the SWAC regular-season standings but won all three conference tourney games by double-digits and takes an eight-game winning streak into this contest.

Texas Southern rather famously went 0-13 to start the season, but that's another reason they could be worth taking seriously here. Not only have they proven resilient, but Davis' strategy of challenging the likes of Gonzaga, Ohio State, Syracuse Kansas, Clemson, Oregon, Baylor, TCU and BYU toughened his team and prepared them for this since they often went from one city to the next, playing one guarantee game after another.

Junior 7-footer Trayvon Reed, an Auburn transfer, nearly averaged a double-double and blocked three shots per game, so the Tigers could have a difference-maker in the paint at both ends of the floor if he's able to avoid foul trouble.

TSU's best players are guards Demontrae Jefferson and Donte Clark, who combine to average over 42 points per game. Jefferson, a 5-foot-7, 150-pounder who plays much bigger than his size, averaged 4.5 3-point makes in 10 attempts per game. He scored 25 points on Wednesday. Clark played his first three seasons at UMass, starting 75 times.

Xavier was eliminated from the Big East Tournament in the semifinals against Providence, losing in OT. The Muskies won 13 of 15 down the stretch but were swept by the other top seed out of the Big East, Villanova.

Despite a storied basketball history over the past few decades, this is the first time Xavier has been awarded a No. 1 seed. In Trevon Bluiett, J.P. Macura and Kerem Kanter, the Musketeers' top three scorers are all seniors who can do a number of things, including stretch out a defense from beyond the arc.

Texas Southern held NC Central to 0-for-14 shooting from 3-point range to overcome its own putrid shooting night in Dayton (21-for-73, 29 percent)

Midwest Region – San Diego – Viejas Arena
#13 College of Charleston vs. #6 Auburn (-9 ½, 148) – 7:25 PM EST – truTV

Despite off-the-court controversy and attrition issues involving the program's top big men, Bruce Pearl's Tigers managed to win the SEC convincingly during the regular season, which was no small feat given how loaded the league was this season. They won 14 straight at one point, but have stumbled down the stretch since their lack of depth has been magnified.

The College of Charleston is back in the NCAA Tournament for the first time in 19 years after rallying from 17 points down in the Colonial title game against well-coached Northeastern.

Auburn was unable to get the top big men in the program, Austin Wiley and Danjel Purifoy, eligible to play due to amateurism issues. Anfernee McLemore, a superior athlete who plays much bigger than his size and was invaluable as a glue guy, tore his ACL in February.

The Tigers went 2-4 down the stretch, covering only one of those six games and bowing out of the SEC Tournament in embarrassing fashion, falling to rival Alabama 81-63.

In point guard Jared Harper, shooting guard Bryce Brown and wing Mustapha Heron, the Tigers still have a formidable three-headed monster that plays with pace and pushes tempo whenever possible. If they have success turning teams over, the Tigers can bury you in a hurry.

It will be up to senior point guard Joe Chealey to help handle the pressure. He's certainly capable, coming in as one of the most reliable mid-major guards in the country. Backcourt mates Grant Riller and Jarrell Brantley should give Auburn's arsenal a run for their money.

In a perfect world, the College of Charleston will be able to take Auburn out of its comfort zone by slowing tempo and limiting turnovers. Like the Tigers, the Cougars are light on depth.

The schools haven't played since 2012 at the Charleston Classic. Auburn has won all three previous meetings.

The College of Charleston have won 14 of 15 games outright, but are just 8-7 ATS in that stretch. The Cougars played just two teams from the nation's top 10 conferences, losing to Wichita State and Rhode Island.

Posted : March 16, 2018 8:26 am

shazman

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Posts: 57671

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Topic starter

Friday - Session 4
March 15, 2018
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

**Virginia vs. UMBC**

-- Virginia (31-2 straight up, 20-9-1 against the spread) is the Tournament’s No. 1 overall seed after winning both the ACC Tournament and the regular-season championship. However, UVA took some bad news before arriving in Charlotte, as ACC Sixth Man of the Year De’Andre Hunter was ruled ‘out’ of the Tournament due to a fractured wrist. Hunter was averaging 9.2 points, 3.5 rebounds and 1.1 assists per game. The redshirt freshman forward had made 48.8 percent of his field-goal attempts, 38.2 percent of his 3-pointers and 75.5 percent of his free-throw attempts.

-- UVA owns a 29-21 record in 50 NCAA Tournament games in program history. The Cavaliers are playing in their fifth straight Tournament and sixth overall during Tony Bennett’s nine-year tenure. Bennett, who has won a remarkable 72.0 percent of his games at the school (219-85) and three regular-season ACC titles, has his team as a No. 1 seed for the third time in the past five years. He took the Cavs to the Elite Eight two seasons ago, but they allowed a double-digit second-half lead to get away in a loss to Syracuse. Then last year after slipping past UNC-Wilmington 76-71 in the opening round, Florida dispatched of Virginia in a 65-39 blowout win.

-- As of Thursday afternoon, most betting shops had UVA listed as a 21.5-point favorite with a total of 121. The Cavs opened at -22.5 before the news of Hunter’s injury came out. UMBC had +2750 money-line odds at 5Dimes.eu (risk $100 to win $2,750). The winner advances to play the survivor of Creighton vs. Kansas State.

-- Virginia went 20-1 against ACC foes this year. Since allowing a big second-half advantage to get away in a 61-60 home loss to Va. Tech in overtime on Feb. 10, Bennett’s bunch has won eight games in a row, including scalps of Louisville, Clemson and UNC at the ACC Tournament in Brooklyn at Barclays Arena. The Cavs topped the Tar Heels by a 71-63 count as 3.5-point ‘chalk’ in this past Saturday night’s finals. Kyle Guy earned ACC Tourney MVP honors after producing 50 points, 14 rebounds, three steals and seven assists compared to just two turnovers in three games. The junior guard had 16 points, two rebounds, two steals and four assists without a turnover vs. UNC. Devon Hall added 15 points, five rebounds and four assists on 3-of-4 shooting from downtown against the Tar Heels. Ty Jerome contributed 12 points, six boards, one steal and six assists compared to only one turnover. The Cavs only turned the ball over four times.

-- UVA has posted a 5-4-1 spread record in 10 games as a double-digit ‘chalk.’

-- Guy is UVA’s leading scorer with a 14.1 points-per-game average. The sophomore guard has made 39.5 percent of his launches from 3-point land and 83.7 percent of his free-throw attempts. Jerome (10.5 PPG) paces the Cavs in assists (3.9 APG), steals (1.5 SPG) and FT percentage (90.2%), while Hall (12.0 PPG) is the club’s best 3-point shooter with 45.2 percent accuracy and has an outstanding 106/35 assist-to-turnover ratio.

-- UMBC (24-10 SU, 3-1 ATS) is short for the Maryland Baltimore Country Retrievers, who have won five consecutive games and won the America East Tournament with an upset victory over regular-season champ Vermont. They got a game-winning 3-pointer from Jairus Lyles with less than a second remaining to down the Catamounts 65-62 as 9.5-point underdogs. Lyles, who transferred from VCU after his freshman campaign, finished with 27 points vs. Vermont on 5-of-7 shooting from beyond the arc.

-- Lyles leads UMBC in scoring (20.2 PPG) and steals (2.1 SPG), and he’s buried 38.7 of his tries from 3-point range. The senior also averages 5.6 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game. K.J. Maura (11.4 PPG) leads the Retrievers in assists (5.2 APG) and FG percentage (46.8%), while Arkel Lamar (10.5 PPG) paces them in rebounding (5.8 RPG), 3-point accuracy (43.2%) and blocked shots (0.5 BPG).

-- UMBC won 20 games this year for only the fourth time in school history. The Retrievers’ best wins are the one over Vermont and a 76-75 home triumph over Northern Kentucky, a team that made the NIT. They lost 66-45 at Maryland, 103-78 at Arizona and 78-67 at SMU.

-- Although the ‘over’ has hit in three straight games and five of their past seven, the ‘under’ still maintains a lucrative 20-10 overall record for the Cavs, who are tops in the nation in scoring defense (53.4 PPG). They’re ranked third in the country in field-goal percentage ‘D’ (37.5%) and fifth at defending the 3-point line (30.3%).

-- Totals have been an overall wash (2-2) in four lined games for the Retrievers.

-- Tip-off is expected to be at around 9:20 p.m. Eastern on TNT.

**Syracuse vs. TCU**

-- CBS will provide the broadcast of this 6/11 encounter that’s expected to come off the board at around 9:40 p.m. Eastern. The winner advances to meet the survivor of Xavier vs. Texas Southern in Detroit.

-- As of Thursday afternoon, most books had TCU (21-11 SU, 16-13-2 ATS) listed as a four-point favorite with a total of 136.5. The Orange was +160 on the money line (risk $100 to win $160).

-- Jamie Dixon’s team saw its four-game winning streak both SU and ATS snapped in a 79-75 loss at Texas Tech as a four-point underdog in both team’s regular-season finale. TCU then lost 66-64 to Kansas State in overtime as a 2.5-point ‘chalk’ at the Big 12 Tournament. Kenrich Williams had 20 points and 10 rebounds in the losing effort against the Wildcats. Alex Robinson added 16 points, six assists, four boards and three steals, but he coughed up seven turnovers. Vladimir Brodziansky finished with 13 points, seven boards, two assists and a pair of rejections.

-- In only his second season at his alma mater since taking the job after a long and successful tenure at Pittsburgh, Dixon has TCU back in the Tournament for the first time since losing 96-87 to FSU in 1998 when Billy Tubbs was still roaming the sidelines. It is just the eighth Tourney appearance for the program, which has a 5-7 record in 12 Tourney games.

-- TCU has compiled a 10-5 record both SU and ATS in 15 games as a single-digit favorite.

-- Brodzianksy leads TCU in scoring (15.1 PPG), FG percentage (57.6%) and blocks (1.6 BPG), while Williams (13.1 PPG) paces the Frogs in rebounding (9.3 RPG) and steals (1.8 SPG). Desmond Bane (12.8 PPG) has nailed 47.2 percent of his 3-pointers.

-- TCU will be without Jaylen Fisher, who went down with a torn meniscus in January and isn’t expected to return this year. Fisher played 17 games and was averaging 12.3 PPG, making 43.9 percent of his 3-balls and had a 91/34 assist-to-turnover ratio.

-- Syracuse (21-13 SU, 15-17 ATS) rallied from a seven-point deficit with seven minutes remaining to capture a 60-56 win over Arizona State in Tuesday’s First Four showdown in Dayton. Jim Boeheim’s squad won outright as a one-point underdog, outscoring the Sun Devils 30-28 in both halves. Oshae Brissett scored 23 points and grabbed 12 rebounds for the ‘Cuse, while Tyus Battle finished with 15 points. Frank Howard added 12 points, three boards, three steals, two assists and one blocked shot.

-- Syracuse struggles to get buckets, ranking No. 314 nationally in scoring with a meager 67.3 PPG average. The Orange is ranked No. 312 in the country in FG percentage, making only 41.8 percent of its FGAs, and they’re No. 316 in 3-point accuracy (32.2%). On the flip side, Boeheim’s vaunted zone defense that always features lots of size and length gives opponents fits. The ‘Cuse is ranked 15th in the nation in scoring ‘D’ (64.3 PPG) and eighth in FG percentage defense (39.6%).

-- Syracuse has been an underdog 13 times this season, producing a 6-7 spread record with four outright victories.

-- Syracuse has won at least two Tournament games in five of its past seven invites going back to 2009. The Orange missed the Tournament last year after going to the Final Four in 2016. They’re seeking their second national title and seventh Final Four berth, winning it all in 2003 behind the freshman heroics of Carmelo Anthony and Gerry McNamara.

-- Battle is the Orange’s leading scorer (19.7 PPG) and FT shooter (84.4%), while Howard (14.9 PPG) paces them in assists (4.9 APG) and steals (1.9 SPG). Brissett averages 14.9 points and 8.9 RPG.

-- The ‘under’ is 18-14 overall for the ‘Cuse, cashing in back-to-back games and three of its last four.

-- The ‘over’ is 21-10 overall for the Horned Frogs, but they’ve seen the ‘under’ cash in two of their past three games.

**Florida State vs. Missouri**

-- This is an 8/9 showdown in the West Region that’ll be contested in Nashville. The winner will advance to presumably face top-seeded Xavier on Sunday for the right to go to Staples Center in Los Angeles next weekend. Tip-off is expected to take place around 9:50 p.m. Eastern on TBS.

-- Missouri (20-12 SU, 16-15 ATS) is down to seven scholarship players, at least against the Seminoles, because second-leading scorer Jordan Barnett (13.7 PPG, 5.9 RPG) has been suspended for one game following his arrest early this past Saturday morning on DUI charges. Barnett did travel with the team and Cuonzo Martin has indicated that he might be available for the Round of 32 if the Tigers get there.

-- As of Thursday afternoon, most spots had Florida State (20-11 SU, 15-13 ATS) listed as a 1.5-point favorite with a total of 147.5.

-- Since winning three straight games in late January, Leonard Hamilton’s team has won consecutive contests just once and those came at home over Clemson (in overtime after trailing nearly the entire game) and vs. Pittsburgh, which went winless in the ACC and saw its head coach Kevin Stallings fired after only two seasons. FSU is mired in a 1-7 ATS slump in its past eight games, including an 82-74 loss to Louisville at the ACC Tournament last Wednesday. The ‘Noles lost outright as 2.5-point ‘chalk,’ coming up on short in their comeback bid after trailing by 19 at intermission and by as many as 26 early in the second half. They would trim the deficit to eight by the under-four TV timeout but wouldn’t get any closer. Trent Forrest sparked the rally with 14 points, six assists, five rebounds and one steal. P.J. Savoy drained 4-of-7 launches from downtown and finished with 14 points as well.

-- FSU has just three wins of note outside of Tallahassee, as it prevailed at Florida, at Va. Tech and at Louisville. We aren’t giving much credence to a trio of neutral-court scalps over the likes of Tulane, Fordham and Colorado State.

-- Terance Mann averages team-highs in scoring (13.2 PPG), rebounding (5.7 RPG) and FG percentage (56.1%) for FSU. Forrest, a product of Chipley High School in the panhandle of Florida, the same program that produced former football star and Rams’ RB Amp Lee, paces the ‘Noles in assists (4.0 APG) and steals (1.4 SPG). The sophomore guard has played the best ball of his collegiate career since Valentine’s Day, averaging 14.7 points, 5.2 rebounds, 4.8 assists and 1.7 steals during a six-game span.

-- Missouri has lost four of its last six games both SU and ATS, including a 62-60 loss to Georgia at the SEC Tournament in St. Louis this past Thursday. The Tigers lost outright as 3.5-point favorites. Jontay Porter had 20 points and eight rebounds thanks to 4-of-6 marksmanship from 3-point range. His brother, Michael Porter Jr., the future lottery pick who hadn’t played since the season opener, came off the bench and logged 23 minutes. In his first action since back surgery in November, Porter produced 12 points, eight rebounds, one blocked shot and one assist without committing a turnover. Observers could clearly see the talent, but his legs and conditioning weren’t there as he shook off the rust. One would think he’ll be better off in those categories after another week of full-speed practices.

-- Kassius Robertson, a grad transfer from Canisius, has been the catalyst for Martin’s first team at Missouri after leaving Cal-Berkeley to take the gig. Robertson averages a team-best 16.2 PPG thanks to 42.5 percent shooting from long distance. Barnett, who we noted will be absent vs. FSU, makes 41.4 percent of his 3’s and 89.0 percent of his FTs. Jontay Porter averages 10.1 points, 6.8 rebounds, 2.2 assists and 1.7 blocked shots per game.

-- Missouri owns a 5-4 spread record with three outright victories in nine games as an underdog.

-- Missouri is back in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2013. The Tigers haven’t won a Tournament game since beating Clemson 86-78 in 2010. They are still seeking their first Final Four appearance and are 22-26 in 48 Tournament games.

-- FSU has only one Final Four appearance (1972) in program history, going 16-15 in the Tournament. Hamilton took the ‘Noles to the Sweet 16 in 2011 before losing 72-71 to VCU in overtime. This is the program’s third Tourney showing since then, bowing out in the Round of 32 in both 2012 and last season when Xavier sent FSU packing after it had beaten Florida Gulf Coast.

-- The ‘over’ has hit in back-to-back games and five of FSU’s last seven to improve to 17-12 overall.

-- The ‘under’ is 12-5 in the Tigers’ last 17 games and 19-12 overall.

**Clemson vs. New Mexico State**

-- This game will tip 30 minutes after Auburn vs. College of Charleston concludes on TruTV. The winners of both games face each other Friday in San Diego. This is a 5/12 encounter, one that has many pundits thinking the Aggies are a trendy underdog pick.

-- As of Thursday afternoon, most betting shops had Clemson (23-9 SU, 17-12 ATS) installed as a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 133. The Aggies were +170 on the money (risk $100 to get paid $170).

-- Brownell has the Tigers back in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since he took the program over in 2011. Clemson beat UAB handily by a 70-52 count in the First Four that season, but the victory came after the initial First Four game for a 16th seed went to multiple overtimes. Therefore, by the time Brownell’s club had defeated the Blazers and finished its media obligations, it didn’t get to the airport until nearly 2:00 a.m. for a flight to St. Petersburg, Florida, where it arrived near sunrise. Clemson then had media obligations and practice with basically zero rest before facing West Virginia the next day in the first game at 12:15 p.m. Eastern. The Tigers jumped out to a 10-point halftime lead, only to falter as fatigue set in and the Mountaineers surged ahead and won an 86-78 decision.

-- Clemson is in the Tournament for only the 12th time in school history. The Tigers own a 9-11 record in 20 all-time Tourney games. The most heartbreaking? Obviously, we must go back to the Meadowlands in 1990 for an East Region semifinal with Jim Calhoun’s Connecticut squad. Cliff Ellis had a pair of big men who would enjoy long and prosperous NBA careers in Dale Davis and Elden Campbell, in addition to a point guard from the Bronx by the name of Marion Cash. Sean Tyson was going to the FT line for a one-and-one with 1.9 seconds remaining and Clemson leading by one. His FT missed and UConn rebounded and immediately called a timeout. This left the Huskies with 1.1 seconds remaining. Scottie Burrell, who pitched in minor-league baseball during the summers while in college, would throw a length-of-the-court pass to Tate George, who caught the ball on the far baseline and knocked down a buzzer-beating jumper. I’ll never forget the look of shock in Campbell’s eyes. Of course, UConn would have the favor returned less than 48 hours later when its one-point lead with less than three seconds remaining disappeared when Christian Laettner got a quick pass back after inbounding the ball on the sidelines and knocked down a contest double-pump leaner that beat the horn and sent Duke to the Final Four. Two years later, Laettner would bury a second Elite Eight buzzer beater at the old Spectrum in Philadelphia to sink Kentucky in what many call The Last Great Game.

-- Clemson lost perhaps its best player in senior forward Donte Grantham in late January. Grantham was enjoying a stellar campaign, averaging 14.2 points, 6.9 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 0.8 steals and 0.9 blocked shots per game. He was shooting at a 56.0 percent clip from the field, 41.9 percent from downtown and 78.0 percent from the FT line.

-- Clemson has lost five of its past eight games while going 4-4 ATS. The Tigers beat Boston College 90-82 as a 5.5-point favorite last Thursday to advance to the ACC Tournament semifinals. However, they dropped a 64-58 decision Friday night to Virginia, although they registered a backdoor cover for their supporters as 7.5-point underdogs. Shelton Mitchell scored a team-best 18 points in the losing effort, while Elijah Thomas added 15 points and seven rebounds.

-- Marcquise Reed leads Clemson in scoring (15.8 PPG), assists (3.4 APG) and steals (1.7 SPG), but he saw his seven-game streak of scoring in double figures halted when he had only six points in the loss to UVA in Brooklyn. Gabe DeVoe (14.2 PPG) has buried 38.7 percent of his treys and pulls down 4.7 RPG. Thomas (10.8 PPG) paces the Tigers in rebounding (7.9 RPG), FG percentage (57.0%) and blocked shots (2.2 BPG).

-- Brad Brownell’s team is ranked 29th in the nation in scoring defense (65.8 PPG) and 35th in FG percentage ‘D’ (41.0%).

-- Clemson has been a single-digit ‘chalk’ 13 times, posting a 7-6 spread record with three outright losses.

-- New Mexico State (28-5 SU, 6-2-2 ATS) tied a school record for wins by defeating Grand Canyon in this past Saturday’s WAC Tournament finals. The Aggies are in the Big Dance for the fourth time in five seasons. They haven’t advanced to the Round of 32 since 1993, although we should note that San Diego State needed overtime to get by NMSU in 2014. NMSU went to the Final Four in 1970 when Lou Henson was the head coach, but it is only 10-25 in 35 all-time NCAA Tournament games.

-- NMSU won a 72-58 decision over Grand Canyon as a 4.5-point ‘chalk’ at The Orleans in Las Vegas. Zach Lofton was the catalyst with a game-high 21 points and five rebounds. A.J. Harris added 18 points, while Jemerrio Jones finished with 17 points and 18 boards. Jones, a 6’5” senior forward, garnered WAC Tourney MVP honors by averaging 11.0 points and 13.2 RPG during the Aggies’ three-game run.

-- NMSU knocked off a pair of Tournament teams in Davidson and Miami at the Diamond Head Classic, but it lost to USC in the finals on Christmas Day in Honolulu. Other notable non-conference games included a 92-74 loss at Saint Mary’s, a sweep of New Mexico in a home-and-home series and a neutral-court victory over Illinois.

-- New Mexico State has won six games in a row. The Aggies are 2-1 ATS with a pair of outright wins in three games as underdogs.

-- Lofton averages a team-high 19.7 points and grabs 5.1 RPG. He’s buried 38.2 percent of his 3-pointers. Meanwhile, Jones (11.0 PPG, 13.2 RPG) averages a double-double and averages team-bests in both assists (3.1 APG) and steals (1.1 SPG).

-- New Mexico State ranked 10th nationally in scoring defense, holding opponents to 63.8 PPG.

-- The ‘over’ is 15-14 overall for the Tigers after cashing in back-to-back games.

-- The ‘under’ is 7-3 overall for the Aggies.

Posted : March 16, 2018 8:29 am

shazman

(@shazman)

Posts: 57671

Member Moderator

Topic starter

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Friday, March 16

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C MICHIGAN (20 - 14) at WOFFORD (21 - 12) - 3/16/2018, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WOFFORD is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
C MICHIGAN is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
C MICHIGAN is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in non-conference games this season.