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College Basketball Betting News and Trends For Wednesday, March 14, 2018

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Last Post by shazman 6 years ago

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shazman

(@shazman)

Posts: 57735

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Betting news, trends, odds and predictions for Wednesday, March 14, 2018 from various handicappers and websites

Posted : March 14, 2018 9:45 am

shazman

(@shazman)

Posts: 57735

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Topic starter

Play-in games, Dayton
Wednesday
Texas Southern (-4) vs North Carolina Central
Texas Southern started this season 0-13 with a ridiculous streak of guarantee games against big-name teams; 11 of the 13 teams are ranked in top 120. Tigers are in NCAA’s for 4th time in five years; they’re coached by former Indiana coach Davis, start frosh/soph G’s. TSU won its last seven games, North Carolina Central won its last five. NCC finished 6th in MEAC; they play slow (#320) pace, TSU plays fast (#35). Eagles start two freshman G’s. NCC is 16-11 vs teams ranked below #200- they beat SWAC’s Southern 80-67. MEAC teams are 3-4 in play-in games; SWAC teams are 1-7.

Arizona State (-1) vs Syracuse
Syracuse won its first NCAA tourney game last seven times they were in, with last first-round loss in ’06 to Texas A&M, but they were usually a very high seed. Orange did get to Final Four as a 10-seed two years ago. Syracuse finished T10 in ACC this year; they play slow (#342) pace, are 3-5 in last eight games- their bench plays fewest minutes in country- they have no senior starters. Arizona State went 8-11 in Pac-12 after being 12-0 at Christmas; they lost five of last six games, start three seniors. Sun Devils play fast (#36) pace. ASU is 10-9 vs top 100 teams; Syracuse is 5-9 vs top 50 teams.

Wednesday’s other tournaments
To me, these games are a crapshoot; there is no way of knowing which teams will come to compete, and which teams will just go through the motions.

Exhibit A: USC’s best player Chimezie Metu chose not to play Tuesday nite, because he’s going to the NBA and he doesn’t want to get hurt.

Marquette won five of its last seven games; they’re #312 experience team that is 6-0 vs teams ranked outside top 100. Golden Eagles shoot 41.5% outside arc (#3)- they went 9-9 in Big East, which ain’t bad. Harvard lost Ivy League title game Sunday afternoon; they won 12 of last 15 games, are 4-9 outside Ivy League, 0-4 vs top 100 teams, losing by 18-16-9-6 points.

UL-Lafayette is 27-6, winning 24 of last 28 games; they’re 8-3 outside Sun Belt, losing by 18 at Ole Miss in only SEC game this year. Ragin’ Cajuns will be excited to play LSU, who they last played eight years ago, losing 66-58. ULL is #51 experience team, starting three juniors, two seniors. LSU won its last six home games but lost three of last four games overall.

Penn State lost four of its last six games; they’re #243 experience team, 10-3 outside Big 14, albeit against #324 NC schedule. Nittany Lions are 15-6 vs teams ranked outside the top 50. Temple lost five of its last seven games; they’re 3-7 vs top 50 teams, but two of the wins were back in November. Owls lost their last three true road games, by 7-6-18 points.

Mississippi State lost three of last four games; they’re #326 experience team that is 11-1 outside SEC, with only loss by 15 at Cincinnati- their non-SEC schedule is 345th out of 351 in nation. Nebraska won eight of its last ten games; they’re 10-5 outside Big 14 (#271 NC sked). Huskers won three of last four true road games. Last three years, Big 14 teams are 14-8 SU vs SEC foes.

Utah won six of last eight games but lost by hoop to Oregon in first round of Pac-12 tourney; Utes are #35 experience team that is 8-3 outside Pac-12- they beat Hawai’i by 20 in only game vs Big West team this season. Cal-Davis won six of last seven games; since Feb 1, they’ve won three games in either double or triple OT. Aggies split pair of Pac-12 tilts against Washington schools.

BYU split its last six games, upsetting St Mary’s in WCC semis but losing by 20 in finals; Cougars are 11-2 outside WCC, but lost by 12 at home to Utah in only Pac-12 game this year. BYU lost four of its last six road games. Stanford won five of its last seven games; they’re 6-7 outside the Pac-12 (NC sked #69); they beat USF by 12, Pacific by 9 in two games vs WCC foes this season.

Washington lost six of its last nine games but they won five of last six home games; Huskies are #304 experience team that is 10-3 outside Pac-12 (NC sked #169)- they force turnovers 21.1% of time. Boise State is 4-3 in its last seven games; they’re #70 experience team that is 15-1 at home this year, with only loss to Nevada. Broncos won by 3 at Oregon in their only Pac-12 game.

Colgate went 12-6, finishing 2nd in Patriot League, losing to Bucknell in tourney final. Raiders won five of last six games; they’re 1-7 vs teams ranked in top 200, with only win by 5 over UMBC back in November. San Francisco is #266 experience team that is 7-5 outside WCC; Dons are 9-2 vs teams ranked outside top 200. Colgate is 19-13, their first winning season in a decade.

South Dakota won seven of last nine games; they’re #139 experience team that plays pace #67. Coyotes are 9-4 outside Summit League; they beat Southern Miss by 13 in only game vs C-USA opponent this year. North Texas went 8-10 in C-USA this year after going 9-27 last two years; Mean Green lost seven of last eight games, with six losses by 6 or fewer points, or in OT.

Grand Canyon gets great crowd support; they lost WAC final by 14 to New Mexico St, their first loss in last six games. Antelopes are 10-5 outside WAC (NC sked #346); teams shoot 26.7% on arc against them (#1st in nation). Mercer won eight of its last nine games; they’re experience team #12 that is 5-6 outside SoCon. Bears play pace #339, one of slowest in country.

Campbell won four of last seven games; they went 10-8 in Big South; Camels are 4-7 vs teams ranked in top 200- they won seven of last eight home games. Miami OH lost seven of its last ten games; Red Hawks are #322 experience team that plays #244 pace- they’re 5-6 outside MAC. Miami lost four of its last five road games, with their last true three road games all going OT.

Rio Grande Valley lost five of last six games; they’re #133 experience team that plays pace #9- despite that, their eFG% is #343. Vaqueros are 2-1 vs Southland teams this year, losing 111-106 to Nicholls St, then sweeping a pair with Corpus Christi. New Orleans lost six of last nine games; Privateers are 0-8 vs D-I teams outside Southland, but they played NC schedule #3; they turn ball over 22.4% of the time.

Central Arkansas won four of last five games, but lost to SF Austin in Southland semis; Bears are 5-7 outside Southland, 1-11 vs teams ranked in top 200- they play pace #17, are coached by guy who was interim coach at Arizona after Lute Olson retired. Seattle lost four of last five games; they’re 8-6 outside Southland. Redhawks won last six home games, including one vs N Mex St.

Long road trip from Alabama to frigid Buffalo; Jacksonville State hasn’t played in 12 days since semi-final loss to Murray State in OVC semis. Gamecocks are #61 experience team that is 8-4 outside OVC- they lost three of last four true road games. Canisius won 17 of last 21 games, but got upset in Quinnipiac in MAAC tourney; Griffins are #262 experience team- they lost by 8 at Tennessee State in only game vs an OVC opponent.

St Francis won five of last six games; they’re 4-5 outside NEC, 16-6 vs teams ranked outside top 200. Red Flash is #240 experience team; they’re 3-1 in OT games. Ill-Chicago lost four of its last six games, giving up 82.3 ppg in last three games; Flames are 3-8 outside Horizon- they turn ball over 20.9% of time. UIC is 14-3 this season against teams ranked outside top 200.

Niagara lost three of last four games with Scott injured; Eagles haven’t played in 11 days, so no idea if he’ll be back here. Niagara won six of last nine road games; they’re 7-6 outside MAAC, but lost by 19 at home to Buffalo in only game vs MAC opponent. Eastern Michigan plays 2-3 zone like Syracuse; they won seven of last eight games, are #120 experience team, 6-4 outside MAC.

Tex-San Antonio won nine of last 12 games; Roadrunners are #305 experience team that plays pace #33- they’re 4-6 outside C-USA, winning by 14-16 points in their two games vs Southland opponents. Lamar is #6 experience team; they start four seniors, one junior. Cardinals are 4-5 outside Southland, winning by 14 at UTEP in their one game against a Conference USA foe.

Posted : March 14, 2018 9:47 am

shazman

(@shazman)

Posts: 57735

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Topic starter

NCAA Tournament - First Four Best Bets

Wednesday brings the final two “play-in” games to officially round out the field of 64 teams in the NCAA tournament, as NC Central, Texas Southern, Arizona State, and Syracuse all look to make it to Friday's action.

Texas Southern (-5) and Arizona State (-1.5) come into Wednesday's games as the chalk, but will both of them live up to that billing and move on?

BetOnline.ag (truTV, 6:40 p.m. ET)
NC Central vs Texas Southern (-5); Total set at 146.5

Despite finishing the year four games under the .500 mark, Texas Southern comes into this First Four game as a five point favorite against NC Central. Southern's 15-19 SU record is by far the worst of any team in the tournament, but thanks to getting hot at exactly the right time and dominating the games they played in their conference tournament, Texas Southern looks to be well supported by the oddsmakers. Based on record alone there are going to be plenty of bettors taking the points with NC Central, but this time of year is a great time to “side with the craziness” in terms of point spreads that may not make much sense at first glance and that's precisely what I'm doing here.

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NC Central got hot at the right time as well winning four games in five days to earn their entry to dance, but this is not going to be a good matchup for them at all. The NC Central Eagles prefer to keep the tempo slow and the games in the mid-to-high 60's tops, while Texas Southern wants to have 60 points scored sometime early in the 2nd half.

Texas Southern has four guys who average 12.6 points or more per game, and with there two top scorers in Demontrae Jefferson (23.4 ppg) and Donte Clark (18.6 ppg) manning the backcourt and dictating pace with the ball in their hands quite often, the Texas Southern Tigers could end up running NC Central out of the gym.

Don't get too persuaded by the disparity in records as this Texas Southern team knows how to score the basketball as the fact that they hit the 2nd most free throws in the entire country tells you they are utterly relentless in attacking the basket. Offenses can struggle under the bright lights of the NCAA tournament and NC Central does have the advantages of being the more defensive-minded club and being in this exact position a year ago – they lost 67-63 to UC Davis – but experience can only take you so far when you simply can't maintain a pace.

Those attributes in NC Central's favor may cause this line to drop slightly the closer we get to tip off, but I fully expect Texas Southern to win this game going away and laying the “crazy” number as the team with the much worse record on paper is no problem here.

Odds per - BetOnline.ag

Best Bet: Texas Southern -5

BetOnline.ag (truTV, 9:10 p.m. ET)
Arizona State (-1.5) vs Syracuse; Total set at 143.5

There are a lot of detractors for both of these programs getting invited to the big dance, but both are here now and one will be moving on to face TCU in the next round. Arizona State got in thanks to two early season wins against Xavier and Kansas – two #1 seeds in this tournament, while Syracuse's strong start to the season pushed them over the top as well. But with no more second chances available, which program seizes the moment here and books their date with the Horned Frogs?

Interestingly enough, this line has seen plenty of action already as it opened in the pick'em range, got bet as high as -2 for Arizona, and has since fallen back down to this current number. Syracuse can be a popular pick during March given their proud alumni, history, and that tough zone defense to deal with on short prep, but this Syracuse team just doesn't have the talent anymore to consistently compete with the country's better programs.

Of all the teams in the NCAA tournament that Syracuse has played this year, they've got a 13-point home win over Texas Southern on their resume, a 16-point neutral site loss to Kansas, an OT loss to St Bonaventure, nine and seven point home wins over Iona and Buffalo (0-2 ATS in those two games for Syracuse), and a 3-7 SU record against other ACC teams involved in the tournament. The highest seed they beat was #5 Clemson, and while the Pac-12 may not have the overall depth and talent that the ACC does, Arizona State has already proven this year that they can hang with the big boys in the country when they are playing well.

Playing well is something Sun Devils fans haven't been able to say about their team for quite some time now as ASU enters this game on a 1-5 SU run overall and dropped their last two when they were laying at least 7 points in each game. Current form should always be considered when breaking down games, but the extra time off the Sun Devils got to regroup, combined with their 2nd chance life being included in this tournament, may be just the spark this team needs to regain the form they had at the beginning of the year when they beat the likes of Kansas and Xavier.

Just from a common opponent perspective we've got a great comparison between these two teams with them both playing Kansas. ASU actually went into Kansas and beat the Jayhawks by 10 on their own floor, whereas Syracuse lost by 16 at a neutral site. That's a big reason why this line jumped ASU's way on the outset and I agree with that move wholeheartedly. ASU is on a 10-1 ATS run in non-conference play, while the Orange are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight contests on a neutral floor.

Arizona State may struggle at times against the zone defense Syracuse uses, but the Sun Devils ability to push the pace and score in transition when opportunities present themselves should negate most of that. ASU's 83.5 points per game that they score is going to be extremely tough for this Syracuse team to keep up with, as the Orange are prone to long scoring droughts – especially against top competition – and simply don't have the scorers that ASU brings to the table. In what is essentially still a pick'em game at -1.5, I'm siding with the initial move here with ASU securing their spot against TCU on Friday.

Posted : March 14, 2018 9:57 am

shazman

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Posts: 57735

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Topic starter

Preview: Syracuse vs. Arizona State
Gracenote
Mar 11, 2018

Arizona State defeated four eventual NCAA Tournament teams en route to a school-record 12-0 start, but Pac-12 play proved to be a different animal. The Sun Devils hope to resume their dominant play in non-conference action when they meet fellow Midwest Region No. 11 seed Syracuse in a First Four matchup Wednesday in Dayton, Ohio.

The last team in the country to suffer its first loss, Arizona State defeated two eventual No. 1 seeds in the Big Dance - Kansas and Xavier - as well as NCAA Tournament teams San Diego State and Kansas State. The Sun Devils dropped their first game at Arizona on Dec. 30 and were unable to recapture their earlier success, never winning more than three in a row before finishing with an 8-10 conference record and losses in five of their last six. The Orange, who were tabbed by NCAA Tournament committee chair Bruce Rasmussen as the last at-large team into the field, endured a similar path with an 8-10 mark in the ACC after rolling to an 11-2 record during the non-league portion of their schedule. Despite finishing in a tie for 10th in its conference, Syracuse proved itself in the eyes of the committee with a top-20 strength of schedule (14th entering Sunday) and four wins against top-50 RPI teams.

TV: 9:10 p.m. ET, truTV

ABOUT SYRACUSE (20-13): The success of the Orange depends greatly on the success of Tyus Battle (19.8 points), Frank Howard (15.0) and Oshae Brissett (14.7), who rank first, second and sixth in the country in minutes per game and account for 73.3 percent of the team's scoring. Battle has reached double figures in all but one game this season but has failed to shoot 40 percent from the floor in seven of the last eight contests, including a 14-for-50 showing over the last three games. Howard is also slumping of late, failing to shoot over 30 percent from the field in four of his last five outings - including a 10-for-38 stretch beyond the arc over that span.

ABOUT ARIZONA STATE (20-11): The Sun Devils averaged 91.8 points on 50.8 percent shooting from the field and 42.4 beyond the arc during their season-opening winning streak before cooling off the tune of 78.3, 43.7 and 32.9, respectively, over the last 19 contests. Part of the falloff can be attributed to the decline of leading scorer Tra Holder (18.4 points), who averaged 21.4 points during their undefeated start - including a career-high 40 points against Xavier and 29 against Kansas - and only 16.6 the rest of the way. Fellow senior guards Shannon Evans II (16.6) knocked down a conference-high 91 3-pointers, while Kodi Justice (12.6) went over 1,000 career points last weekend and has buried multiple triples in six of his last seven outings.

TIP-INS

1. The winner will meet No. 6 seed TCU in the first round in Detroit.

2. Battle is only the fifth player in school history to reach 1,000 career points by the end of his sophomore year, and his 38.9 minutes per game is on pace to break Billy Owens' program record of 38.0.

3. In seven games against NCAA Tournament teams, Holder averaged 25.3 points.

PREDICTION: Syracuse 84, Arizona State 77
__________________

Posted : March 14, 2018 10:07 am

shazman

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Posts: 57735

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Topic starter

Preview: Texas Southern vs. North Carolina Central
Gracenote
Mar 11, 2018

Texas Southern has embraced taking on college basketball's heavyweights early in recent seasons in hopes it pays off in March, but this year the program took that philosophy to the extreme. Making their fourth NCAA Tournament appearance in the last five seasons, the Tigers attempt to snag their first ever victory in the Big Dance on Wednesday in a First Four matchup in Dayton, Ohio, against fellow West Region No. 16 seed North Carolina Central.

Taking on six eventual NCAA Tournament teams over the course of playing its first 13 games on the road while facing the country's most difficult non-conference schedule according to KenPom.com, Texas Southern did not win its first game until opening up Southwestern Athletic Conference play on New Year's Day. The Tigers found their groove late, however, ending the regular season with four straight wins before registering double-digit victories in each of their three games during the conference tournament. The Eagles took a polar opposite approach to their third NCAA tournament appearance in the past five years, facing only one major-conference school (Illinois) before posting a 9-7 mark and finishing sixth in the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference. North Carolina Central marched into the Big Dance for the second straight season Saturday, upsetting top-seeded Hampton to secure the league's automatic berth.

TV: 6:40 p.m. ET, truTV

ABOUT TEXAS SOUTHERN (15-19): SWAC Tournament MVP Demontrae Jefferson (team-high marks of 23.4 points and 4.5 assists) - a 5-7 sophomore who missed nine games this season for a variety of reasons, including an early suspension and the passing of his father - scored at least 15 points in 24 of 25 games this season. Massachusetts transfer Donte Clark (18.6 points) erupted for 41 points during one of Jefferson's absences and is averaging 23.6 points over the last five contests. Trayvon Reed (9.7 points) ranks second in the conference in rebounds (8.8) and first in blocks (3.0), while part-time starter Marquis Salmon (5.3 points, 6.2 boards) collected 48 rebounds over a three-game span prior to playing a limited role in the SWAC title game.

ABOUT NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL (19-15): Although the Eagles boast All-MEAC second-team center Raasean Davis (team-high marks of 15.0 points and 8.0 rebounds), nearly 40 percent of their scoring comes from their bench as 12 players average at least 10 minutes per game. Davis, a 6-9, 240-pound Kent State transfer who led the MEAC in field-goal percentage (66.7) and fourth in rebounding, proved to be a terror during the final three games of the conference, averaging 15 points and 13.3 boards. Guards Reggie Gardner Jr. (11.2 points, team-high 74 3-pointers) and Jordan Perkins (8.4 points, team-high 5.4 assists), who tallied 13 points and nine assists in the conference title game and handed out a career-high 14 assists earlier in the season, each landed on the all-conference rookie team.

TIP-INS

1. The winner will meet top-seeded Xavier in the first round in Nashville, Tenn.

2. Texas Southern is the first team since the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985 to make the Big Dance after beginning the season 0-13.

3. The Eagles score only 25.7 percent of their points beyond the arc and did not beat a team with a RPI in the top 150 this season.

PREDICTION: Texas Southern 82, North Carolina Central 68
__________________

Posted : March 14, 2018 10:08 am

shazman

(@shazman)

Posts: 57735

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NCAAB
Long Sheet

Wednesday, March 14

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NC CENTRAL (19 - 15) vs. TEXAS SOUTHERN (15 - 19) - 3/14/2018, 6:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NC CENTRAL is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NC CENTRAL is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NC CENTRAL is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
NC CENTRAL is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
NC CENTRAL is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.