NBA Situational Sports Betting Tips
By AuthorAdam Burke
Bangthebook.com
Here are the situational betting spots for the week ending November 19:
Monday November 13
Atlanta Hawks at New Orleans Pelicans – By the time the Hawks play this game, they will have played nine road games and just four home games. Some home cooking would be nice for one of the worst teams in the NBA. With this last game of yet another challenging road trip, it looks like Pelicans or nothing. This is a little bit of a sandwich spot for the Pelicans with better competition in the Clippers and Raptors before and after, but this is a good spot to put a beating on somebody and the Pelicans have two star players capable of doing just that. Lay the big number without fear.
Cleveland Cavaliers at New York Knicks – Let’s look at how this season is going for the Cavaliers. They are only 5-7, but have beaten the Bucks twice, the Wizards, the Celtics, and the Bulls. They lost, but covered against the Rockets. They’ve lost to the Hawks, Knicks, Pelicans, Nets, and Magic. They play when they want to play. More often than not, they haven’t wanted to play. LeBron wants to put on a show in NYC. It’s just in his nature. He should. Derrick Rose has a return to New York that he should be amped up about. It’s Cavs or nothing here, even with the built-in bias in their lines.
Philadelphia 76ers at Los Angeles Clippers – This is a tricky spot for both teams. The 76ers have a day off before and after in Los Angeles, with the Lakers coming up on Wednesday, and players can get themselves in a little bit of trouble in Hollywood with some downtime. The Sixers are also on a pretty sizable road trip, so they have some fatigue concerns. The Clippers, however, return home from a trip of their own, and then have three days off before hitting the road from November 17 to November 27. The Sixers are in the midst of a culture change and may be all business here, but this does come after a game against Golden State, which is never an easy spot for a team.
Orlando Magic at Golden State Warriors – The Magic have regressed already from their hot shooting start to the season. The Warriors are coasting through the regular season by going through the motions without a whole lot of concern for how the standings look. Kevin Durant is dealing with a couple minor things and the team just hasn’t quite hit that stride. Maybe this is a spot where they roll somebody as a big favorite. The Magic are having one of those long Western Conference road trips. The Warriors hit the road for four straight a couple days after this game, so they don’t have any look-ahead or letdowns. This looks like a pretty standard case of rested home team blows out tired road team.
Tuesday November 14
San Antonio Spurs at Dallas Mavericks – In all sports, some games just mean more to one team than another. This game for the Spurs doesn’t mean a whole lot, but for a bottom feeder like the Mavs, playing well against the big name in the state is a big deal. San Antonio visits Minnesota on Wednesday, in a game with revenge from opening night. San Antonio will be tasked with covering a sizable number and they may not be able to do it given the spot. We should get an A+ effort from Dallas and I’d be surprised to see anything above a C+ from the Spurs.
Boston Celtics at Brooklyn Nets – Here’s a classic, NBA Handicapping 101 spot on Tuesday night. The Brooklyn Nets are in their first home game back off of a long trip, which is usually not a great spot, but it still beats the spot for the Boston Celtics. The Celtics host the Raptors on Sunday and then host Golden State on Thursday on TNT. This is a standalone road game against a bad basketball team. It would be a big surprise to see Boston run and hide in this game and we’re going to see a big number in this one. It’s Nets or nothing and this may be the best spot of the week.
Wednesday November 15
Philadelphia 76ers at Los Angeles Lakers – The LA double is generally not good for teams. As mentioned, Los Angeles gives athletes plenty of chances to get in some sort of predicament. Not all players fall into this trap, obviously, but the nightlife scene in Los Angeles is probably only rivaled by Miami when it comes to NBA destinations. The Sixers have four days in Los Angeles with Sunday’s off day, Monday’s game, Tuesday’s off day, and Wednesday’s game. This is already the tail end of a very long roadie for Philly. The Lakers are back home after a very long roadie of their own, so backing them ATS might not be the best bet, but an under should be a good look. It would be a surprise if either team has legs for this one.
Detroit Pistons at Milwaukee Bucks – Little Caesars Arena has been good to the Pistons so far, but they’ll head back out onto the NBA highway to battle the Bucks. Milwaukee can’t seem to get things going in the right direction this season, but there is a lot of talent on that team. Overall, Milwaukee looks like a buy team to me, but especially in this spot with the Pistons kicking off a mini Midwest road trip after so much success at home. We may get a little bit of line value on the Bucks as a result as well.
San Antonio Spurs at Minnesota Timberwolves – Spurs or nothing here. I definitely have this game circled as a spot to play on the more experienced team that has been there and done it before. Minnesota returns home from a little bit of a road trip, including a final game in the altitude in Salt Lake City. The Spurs are in a back-to-back, so I’m sure we’ll get a half-point or so of line value for that. As mentioned above, this is a revenge spot for the Spurs. I think they do care a little bit more about things like that than other teams. I’d expect Gregg Popovich to adjust and, if the Spurs are healthier, the team to have more success.
Cleveland Cavaliers at Charlotte Hornets – Scroll back up and take note of what I said about the Cavaliers for Monday’s game against the Knicks. They play when they want to. I don’t think they’ll want to play here. With Friday’s home game against the Clippers looming and a road trip coming to a close, this is one of those “punt” games for Cleveland. Hornets plus the points is the way to go in this spot.
Thursday November 16
Golden State Warriors at Boston Celtics – This will be fascinating. The Warriors like to slap teams down when they present themselves as challengers. Even without Gordon Hayward, the Celtics have looked like a pretty good team this season. They’ll be fully invested in this one, but do they have the frontline skill to match up with the Warriors? That remains to be seen. Golden State has a travel day and a day off to get accustomed to the time change. This is a TNT audience. Until proven otherwise, I’m a Golden State backer in a spot like this.
Friday November 17
Charlotte Hornets at Chicago Bulls – How fascinating could this spot be? The Hornets visit the Bulls in a standalone road game. If Wednesday plays out like I mentioned, this could be a letdown spot in a standalone road spot against a horrible Bulls team. This is the last home game for Chicago until November 26. Will they want to get away from the Chicago media and the scrutiny? Maybe, but they also may want to get a win before what will probably be a winless road trip. They won’t even need to win to cover the number, so they are a play worth looking at in this one.
Miami Heat at Washington Wizards – The Rapid Revenge Theory is in play for this one with the Heat and Wizards. This is a home-and-home with the game in Miami on Wednesday and then the finale here. It is a standalone road game for the Heat, but the division element mitigates that a little bit. See how Wednesday’s game plays out and then look for line value.
Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs – This will be viewed as good litmus test for the new-look Thunder, who have really struggled to gel. The Spurs will be playing a third game in four nights, so the spot isn’t ideal for them. Is this a spot where Oklahoma City’s talent can come together and win out? Generally, the Spurs, who systemically take apart the rest of the league with their efficiency, win comfortably over dysfunctional teams. This line should tell the story. You get to choose the ending.
Portland Trail Blazers at Sacramento Kings – I love handicapping spots like this. This is a standalone road game for Portland. It is also the front end of a home-and-home, so the Kings will be the road team in Oregon the next night. Typically, a standalone road game is a fade spot. But, in this case, this is the first home game for Sacramento off of a long trip to the East Coast. They’ll go right back on the road the next night. Portland will be a road favorite, but they are a road favorite worthy of your money based on the spot here.
Saturday November 18
Sacramento Kings at Portland Trail Blazers – Obviously we’ll go right back to those teams with the home-and-home setup. The Rapid Revenge Theory is in play. The standalone road game is in play for Sacramento. The standalone home game is in play for Portland, who starts a long road trip of its own right on through to November 30. I’d probably look to go back with Portland again in this spot. The Kings will be playing a third game in four nights after playing in Atlanta and taking a cross-country flight home to arrive in the early hours of the morning on Thursday. They’ll be gassed. It’s Portland or nothing.
Utah Jazz at Orlando Magic – The Magic return to a magical spot on Saturday night. After a long road trip and two days off to lick some wounds, Orlando draws a Utah team playing its third game in four nights off of the Knicks and Nets. If we go further back, this is Utah’s sixth game in nine nights since November 10. It’s hard to play defense with tired legs and Utah’s best attribute is its propensity for playing defense. Orlando appears to be a strong bet next Saturday as a home underdog.
Los Angeles Clippers at Charlotte Hornets – The Hornets are in another good spot at home in this one. The Clippers have this game sandwiched between road games in Cleveland and New York City. Ask yourself, as an NBA player, which game means the least to you? If you answered this one, you are correct. If the Charlotte spot against Chicago works out as anticipated, that could be an embarrassing moment for the Hornets. They’ll look to bounce back here.
Sunday November 19
Golden State Warriors at Brooklyn Nets – After playing the Celtics and the upstart Sixers, the Warriors will play the lowly Nets on a sleepy Sunday in Brooklyn. With Oklahoma City coming up in two days, this is an inherent flat spot for the Warriors. Also, it will be the third game in four nights on the East Coast. For Brooklyn, this will be the end of a nice little three-game homestand with several off days. Brooklyn should bring its best effort. The Warriors probably won’t. With Brooklyn asked to keep it respectable at home, they should.
Detroit Pistons at Minnesota Timberwolves – If the Pistons have some road woes, as I talked about earlier, this would be a spot for them to continue. This is the front end of a back-to-back with the Cavaliers at Little Caesars Arena on Monday. That sets up really nicely for Minnesota, who could have a less-than-stellar week with a road tilt against the Jazz, the Spurs, and then the lowly Mavericks on the road in a standalone road spot. This might be a get right game for Tom Thibodeau’s bunch and the spot sets up well for it.
Weekly Six-pack
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com
With the NBA swimming up against the NFL and a wild college football season, not to mention NCAA ball starting up, it can be easy to lose sight of what's gone on in the first month of a season that began earlier than it had in decades.
Kyrie Irving, despite a facial fracture that will force him to wear a protective mask this week, has led the Boston Celtics to a 12-2 start, getting more help than anyone could've dreamed up from Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum to overcome losing Gordon Hayward.
Cleveland has crashed due to injuries and awful defense, Oklahoma City lacks chemistry, Utah lost defensive catalyst Rudy Gobert for at least a month and the bottom-four teams, Dallas, Atlanta, Chicago and Sacramento, are a combined 9-41.
In this NBA version of the "Six-pack," we'll look at more top trends that have sprouted up over an interesting first few weeks.
Boston Bullies
The Celtics have proven that Danny Ainge's work as general manager remains elite and really take every possession of every game seriously. They're hungry and truly invest on the defensive end, which has Brad Stevens as the early leader for Coach of the Year. They're 11-2-1 against the number and have seen the under come in 10 of 14 times and will play only one back-to-back between now and Dec. 10. Between now and a Dec. 8 visit to San Antonio, I'd suspect they'll only be an underdog on Nov. 16 when the Warriors come to town. Al Horford has returned from his concussion scare and is really attacking defenders. If Golden State doesn't end the Celtics' winning streak at 13 -- they'll beat the Nets Tuesday -- the run could reach deep into the teens if everyone stays healthy.
Rockets on the road
While I still believe the Warriors are going to finish with the NBA's top record, one reason Houston may make a run at it has unfolded early. On the road, the Rockets have had only one night when they couldn't find their game. There will be a few growing pains with Chris Paul getting back in the mix, but there's still too many weapons on this team not to continue riding a hot streak that has seen them cover in five of six. They're 7-1 on the road (5-3 ATS) and will return to Memphis, site of that 103-89 Oct. 28 loss this Saturday. If they can defeat the Suns and Grizzlies on the road this week as likely favorites, they'll enter December having won 90 percent of their roadies. James Harden isn't even playing all that well in opposing arenas, averaging 26.8 points and 10.9 assists while shooting just 42.5 percent. He's shooting 49 percent and averaging 34.8 points at Toyota Center thus far. If the Rockets are winning games without Paul and with Harden not being terribly efficient on the road, they might be able to make a run at winning 65-plus games.
New digs in Detroit
The Pistons are back downtown after a few decades in Auburn Hills and have really taken to the new Little Caesar's Arena. They just completed a perfect five-game homestand that featured wins over Milwaukee, Indiana and Miami. Detroit hits the road for rematches with the Bucks and Pacers before a Sunday night game at the Timberwolves, so this will be a critical week to study whether they're for real. Andre Drummond has made adramatic difference by increasing his free-throw percentrage to 63.2 after years in the high 30s. He's averaging a career-best 15.7 rebounds per game and is no longer being pulled from games down the stretch, which is a major reason why they're 9-3-1 against the number this season. The Pistons only play in Detroit twice in an upcoming 11-game stretch between now and Dec. 6, hosting the Cavs next Monday and Phoenix on Nov. 29.
Clippers collapse
After winning their first four games of the season, covering while delivering the under in some stifling defensive outings, Golden State appears to have gotten in the heads of the rival Clips again. The Warriors dropped a 141-113 hammering on L.A. at Staples on Oct. 30, part of a 1-7 run SU and ATS. The defense has broken down without point guard Patrick Beverley, who is dealing with a knee injury and have missed Danilo Gallinari, out with a glute injury. L.A. faced Philadelphia on Monday before getting a few more days to rest up and get healthy prior to a five-game road trip that could dictate whether this group will be fighting an uphill battle as they attempt to make the playoffs following CP-3's departure.
Knicks bloom in the Garden
Since losing their home opener against the Pistons, the Knicks have excelled at home, winning six of seven entering Monday night's matchup against the Cavs. Kristaps Porzingis is averaging 30 points per game as he gets his 12th game of the season underway and has predictably been even better at home, shooting 55 percent from the field, 45 percent from 3-point range and scoring at 32.4 points-per-game clip at Madison Square Garden. After LeBron James came into town and lit up the New York's draft strategy and ex-team president, big home dates against the Jazz, Clippers and Raptors over the next 10 days could help the Knicks become an event again in the city if they find a way to not disappoint everybody.
Warriors taking best punches
Since that puzzling Oct. 29 home loss to the Pistons after which head coach Steve Kerr essentially challenged his team to care about their job, Golden State is 6-0 and has imposed its will by an average margin of victory of 21.5 points. The Dubs smashed Philadelphia over the weekend 135-114 on the heels of ending Minnesota's five-game winning streak 125-101. Following Monday's homestand closer against the surprising Orlando Magic, the Warriors will hit the road and face the Celtics, 76ers, Nets and Thunder. Now that they're interested again, it's worth noting that they're 5-1 on the road this season, playing their role as conquering villain quite well with covers in four straight opposing gyms. Stephen Curry entered the week questionable to play due to a thigh contusion and is shooting what would be a career-worst 38.8 clip from 3-point range.
NBA Betting Roadmap, Week 5
By Al McMordie
Covers.com
We're a month into the NBA season, and there have been several surprises in the early-going. In the Eastern Conference, not many would have expected Stan Van Gundy's Pistons to sit in 2nd place, or Tyronn Lue's Cavaliers to be outside the Playoff picture, in 9th. And out West, the New Orleans Pelicans are currently tied for 5th place, while the Oklahoma City Thunder are (like the Cavs) in 9th place. Let's take a look at the upcoming week in the Association.
Spread Watch
The Boston Celtics have been the league's best team, record-wise. Boston is 13-2 straight-up, and 12-2-1 ATS on the year. It owns the league's #1 adjusted defensive efficiency rating (99.13), and the #2 net rating (7.68). To put Boston's early play on the defensive end in context, the San Antonio Spurs had what was considered an historic defense two seasons ago, and their rating was 99.49 (2.62 points better than the 2nd place Hawks). Not only is Boston on pace to outperform that Spurs defense, but it is also 2.71 points better than the 2nd place Lakers. This week, Boston's defense will be put to the test, as it will take on the NBA's #1 offense, Golden State, on Thursday, in a TNT-televised contest. After that, Boston will get a breather, with road games at bottom feeders Atlanta and Dallas. Notwithstanding its record, Boston will be a huge home underdog on Thursday. I love the Warriors in that match-up, as Steve Kerr's crew is also on a red-hot 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS run, and will be playing with 2 days' off. And the Warriors have gone 62-40 ATS with at least two days' of rest. Take Golden State.
Total Watch
The Cleveland Cavaliers have gone 'over' the total in six of their last seven games. Their problem, of course, is defense, as they are a complete mess. Cleveland ranks dead last (30th) in adjusted defensive efficiency with a 113.97 rating, and has given up more than 100 points in each of its last 12 games. It's true that the Cavs also were poor on defense last year (24th, 111.38 rating), but still made the NBA Finals. However, in those NBA Finals, Cleveland gave up 121.6 ppg, and were handily defeated in a short, 5-game series. It seems to me that Cleveland's success in reaching the NBA Finals the past three seasons has led to complacency. The players surely feel that they can exert the requisite defensive intensity in the Playoffs, and that would be enough. Unfortunately, in this year's East -- with the Celtics' ascension -- that may not be the case. This week, Cleveland will finish its four-game road trip with a Wednesday game at Charlotte, before returning home to take on Blake Griffin's Clippers. Cleveland's game against Charlotte is a great candidate to go 'Over' the total. Six of the teams' last seven meetings have sailed 'over,' and the Hornets are currently riding a 5-2 'Over' run, as well.
Injury Watch
The Houston Rockets are playing great basketball, which is saying a lot, given that All-Star Chris Paul sustained an injury in the season opening win at Golden State, and missed the following 14 games. But Houston is 11-4 -- just a half-game behind the Warriors in the standings, but also 1.5 games ahead of rival San Antonio for the all-important 2nd seed in the Conference. And the Rockets will get their point guard back for Thursday's game against the Suns. I don't expect his minutes to be heavy at the start. And coach Mike D'Antoni will also need to determine the best way to integrate Paul into the rotation. Certainly, there are some pundits who feel that Paul's ball-dominant manner doesn't fit with the Rockets' offensive system. I am of a much different mindset, as I believe that point of view ignores the fact that Paul is one of the league's smartest, and most determined players. So, I have no doubt that Paul was able to learn a lot just by sitting on the bench, and observing his new team's style of play. And it will now be a lot easier for him to transition to D'Antoni's system, and excel. This week, Houston will travel to Phoenix and Memphis. Interestingly, Saturday's game at the Grizzlies will be the 4th meeting already this season between the teams. Memphis won the first two, but Houston won the 3rd, last Saturday, 111-96. The Rockets are a poor 1-8 ATS as a road underdog (or PK) at Memphis, while the Grizzlies are an awesome 85-46-1 ATS at home when priced from +2 to -5 points, so consider taking the home team in this game.
Schedule Watch
The Milwaukee Bucks have won and covered their last three games, including big wins against perennial powers San Antonio and Memphis. This week, the Bucks will face Central Division-leading Detroit on Wednesday at the Bradley Center, before traveling to play Dallas on Saturday. I think the Pistons, who are 9-3-1 ATS this season, merit a look on Wednesday in an underdog role. Detroit already defeated Milwaukee, 105-96 earlier in November, and will also be very well-rested, as it hasn't played since Sunday. Historically, the Bucks' franchise has struggled after winning three straight games. Indeed, dating back to 1991, Milwaukee is an awful 69-105 straight-up, and 58-109 ATS if it had won its three previous games, including 42-44 SU and 23-62 ATS at home! Even worse, our 23-62 ATS stat crashes to 7-45 ATS if the Bucks were at home vs. an opponent not playing its 3rd game in four nights! Take Detroit.