NBA Top Win Totals

Atlantic Division Best Bets
ASAWins

Boston Celtics Over 54

The Celtics made some bold moves in the offseason by adding All-Stars Kyrie Irving (Cavs) and Gordon Hayward (Jazz) to a team that won 53 regular season games a year ago. In addition to those two, don’t forget about another other key piece in Marcus Morris (14 PPG, 4.6 RPG) who came over from Detroit. This is the best young starting 5 in the East but depth could be a concern late in the season and the playoffs.

If you’re a basketball purist then you know just how great of a coach Brad Stevens is and he’ll have these Stars on the same page early on. Kyrie didn’t benefit from playing with LeBron like a great ‘spot up’ shooter would because he’s the type of playmaking point guard that needs the ball in his hands.

Kyrie is going to have a MONSTER year and is maybe the most talented 1 on 1 offensive player in the entire NBA. We can’t wait to see just how good rookie Jayson Tatum will be and expect him to be a major contributor this season. Throw in Al Horford and you have a team In the water downed East that can win OVER 54 games.

New York Knicks No Play 29.5

Gone from New York are Carmelo Anthony and GM Phil Jackson which means a whole lotta less drama in the Big Apple. That means the Knicks look to the future and will build around PF Kristaps Porzingis. Porzingis was New York’s best player a year ago ranking 68th in Real Plus Minus numbers.

Now that head coach Jeff Hornacek isn’t handcuffed running the Triangle offense, and Melo holding the ball, they should improve upon their 18th ranked offensive efficiency numbers. NY also brought in Tim Hardaway Jr who averaged a career high 14.5 PPG in Atlanta last year.

Doug McDermott and Enes Kanter (from Thunder) also join the Knicks from the Carmelo deal and provide depth and additional scoring. The Knicks are going to struggle with poor guard play and will again be right around that 31 win total from a year ago. Slight lean to the OVER here but not enough to make a wager. Pass.

Toronto Raptors Over 47.5

Won 56 regular season games two years ago then 51 in 2016-17. The Raptors are what we call a ‘false’ contender. Great individual talent with Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan, and a team built to win in the regular season, but they continually under-achieve in the postseason. Toronto will once again tease their fans with a solid regular season but go belly up in the Playoffs. The Raptors efficiency ratings during the regular season are outstanding with an offense that averages 1.123 points per possession and a defense allowing just 1.079 PPP.

In the playoffs though those numbers drop to 1.038 PPP offensively and 1.100 defensively. Toronto had the 4th best overall point differential in the NBA at +4.3 PPG in the regular season a year ago but a lot of their impressive numbers are bolstered by playing in the Atlantic Division with Philly, Brooklyn and New York. Those three teams combined for just 79 wins a year ago, lowest win total for the bottom three teams in any division a year ago. Barring several injuries or a major trade this team will succeed in the regular season again and win 50 plus games, but don’t expect a playoff run. Bet OVER if anything.

Philadelphia 76ers Under 39.5

There are high hopes in Philly surrounding this 76ers team and expectations this could be a playoff roster in the weak East. But we’ll have to pull a “not so fast my friend” here and pump the brakes in the Sixers team. Last year this team won 28 games which was a dramatic improvement over their 10 wins from the prior season but we don’t see another bump in wins this season. The starting lineup for Philly could very well feature four players under the age of 26 with three of those having a combined 31 games experience.

Joel Embiid could be a budding star if he can stay healthy. He played in just 31 games last season but averaged over 20 PPG, 7.8 RPG and had team high player efficiency rating (PER) of 24.2. There will be a ton of pressure on Ben Simmons (missed his entire rookie season) and Markelle Fultz, who are making their debuts this season.

The addition of vet J.J. Redick will bolster their guard play and perimeter shooting, but his overall shooting percentages took a dip last year which could be an indicator age is catching up to this 11 year vet. Even with their improvement in wins last season, the 76ers still had the 4th worst efficiency differential numbers (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency) in the NBA at minus -5.7EDIF. Expecting the 76ers to win nearly half of their regular season games is a stretch and we’ll side with under 39.5 wins.

Brooklyn Nets Over 27

The Nets have won just 21 and 20 games the past two seasons and had the second worst point differential in the NBA last season at minus -6.7PPG. They weren’t very efficient offensively (1.04 points per possession) and only Phoenix gave up more points per game than the Nets. Brooklyn made an effort to improve their roster by trading for D’Angelo Russell and Timofey Mozgov of the Lakers, along with signing DeMarre Carroll (Toronto) and Allen Crabbe of Portland.

The Nets also have circus attraction Jeremy Lin on the roster who’s OK but certainly not great. So here’s the dilemma for Nets fans. The aforementioned starting lineup has four players with a negative real plus/minus differential with DeMarre Carroll having the highest +/- number of +1.6 which was 101st in the league last season. Carroll saw his season averages drop last year from 12.6PPG the year before to 8.9PPG last season. His rebounding numbers dropped too from 5.3 RPG to just 3.8 RPG.

So even though it looks like Brooklyn made some strides to improve, they may not have. Strangely enough, the Nets won just 11 game against Eastern Conference opponents last year and 9 versus the West. If they can manage that same win total in the West this year we feel they can win 20 in the East. Slight lean to over here.

Top Win Totals - West
By Bruce Marshall
VegasInsider.com

Southwest Division Best Bets

It all sounds so good for the Houston Rockets (56) to add Chris Paul from the Clippers. But if the surly Paul couldn’t always mesh with Blake Griffin and others surrounding him in LA, however, how is he going to play off of the high-volume James Harden, who relished as the first, and sometimes second and third scoring options simultaneously, for the Rockets last season? Moreover, keep in mind that Paul hasn’t been able to stay healthy for a full season in a good while, and his chronic knee problems are not likely to get any better. GM Daryl Morey did well with post-trade moves to get defense and versatility off the bench, signing P.J. Tucker with the mid-level exception and Luc Mbah a Moute at the minimum. But count us among those wondering how Paul and Harden will effectively co-exist; we’re glad that’s Mike D’Antoni’s problem, not ours. “Under” at Toyota Center...

Well, whaddya know, Mark Cuban is talking about a run for the White House in 2020, which along with his Shark Tank TV show will probably generate more headlines than his Dallas Mavericks (33), who have slipped into irrelevance the past few years as Dirk Nowitzki has entered the twilight of his career and others such as Harrison Barnes have yet to effectively take the baton. Still, credit HC Rick Carlisle for keeping the team moderately competitive last season while the roster, mostly due to injuries, resembled a bus depot, with 24 different Mavs on the floor at one time or another. Considering that, it was surprising that Cuban low-keyed it in the offseason, with few upgrades of note outside of first-round draft pick Dennis Smith from NC State, who couldn’t shoot the Wolfpack into the Big Dance and helped get his coach fired to boot. Though some suspect Cuban is simply biding his time to make a run at any number of big-name FAs who hit the market in 2018. If he’s not too worried about politics, that is. “Under” at AA Center.

Others...

The departures of long-time staples Zach Randolph and Tony Allen means the days of “Grit & Grind” are probably over for the Memphis Grizzlies (37), who will be trying to further up the tempo in the second year of the David Fizdale regime. Fiz is hoping that a healthy Chandler Parsons can be a key cog as a “stretch four” off of the bench, and Memphis is desperate for more dynamism on the wings. But all of this might also be window dressing as the team still revolves around PG Mike Conley and C Marc Gasol, and will continue to play stifling defense. Maybe this is the time to sell on the Griz, but we think they also look underrated as usual and could slip into the low 40s and possibly another playoff appearance (which would be their 8th in a row). So we’re going “over” at FedEx Forum...

The clock is ticking for the New Orleans Pelicans (39½), who know that Anthony Davis has just three more summers until he can become a free agent, which means the franchise has some urgency to put enough pieces around him to become a playoff and title contender. Getting Boogie Cousins at the All-Star break seemed a move in the right direction, but Cousins remains a dangerous flashpoint internally, and the last things the Pels need as they try to make a move are clubhouse distractions. Moreover, Davis has “poor man’s injury version” of Joel Embiid, as the “Unibrow” has continued to be afflicted by a non-stop series of minor aches and pains that have limited his on-court time. What New Orleans lacks is enough shooting around its big beasts, who are both going to have to play more “outside-in” than optimal for two bigs on the floor at the same time; offensive rebounds and slices to the rim figure to be limited. Not sure that HC Alvin Gentry can solve this Rubik’s cube; it’s an “under” for us at the Smoothie King Center...

Our suggestion to Lewis Johnson, Lisa Salters, or any of those TV sideline reporters for games involving the San Antonio Spurs (54½) and hoping to get HC Gregg Popovich to give more than one-word answers is to ask him about Trump, then hold on for the response. Fun thoughts aside, we’ve learned to never underestimate Pop, whose teams have recorded 55 or more wins in 16 of the past 18 seasons. The challenge this year is to squeeze more out of LaMarcus Aldridge and quell the trade speculation surrounding him, and get Kawhi Leonard (dealing with a quad issue at the end of preseason) back on the floor ASAP. The West is all about firepower, however, and we’re not sure that adding Rudy Gay is enough for the Spurs, who also have to keep their fingers crossed that Tony Parker doesn’t miss too much time due to his usual injuries (quad at moment). We respect Pop’s ability to mix and match enough to outfox any save perhaps the Warriors, but in the tough West there will be few nights to take it easy. Still, these are the Spurs; “over” at AT&T Center.

Northwest Division Best Bets

Tom Thibodeau still has to fill in a few more roster pieces with the Minnesota Timberwolves (48). But at this moment we suspect that “Tibs” will be the architect of a T-wolves return to the playoffs that will end the second-longest postseason drought (going on 14 years!) in NBA history. To help with maturity and leadership for a youthful, talent-laden core of the roster (Andrew Wiggins, Karl-Anthony Towns), Thibodeau added some familiar faces from his days with the Bulls, Jimmy Butler and Taj Gibson, who now become elder statesmen, and expected to serve as effective intermediaries between the often-bellowing Tibs and the holdover young stars. In addition, Thibodeau added two more vets, former All-Star PG Jeff Teague and sharpshooter Jamal Crawford. Add it up and it’s a fascinating combination, but unless injuries KO Towns and/or Wiggins (and the T-wolves know about bad luck), the playoff drought should end. “Over” at Target Center.

Others...

Lots of mixed reviews on the Denver Nuggets (45), who have wowed some with the potential that some others can’t seem to identify. Intrigue, indeed! There is now a glut of power forwards with Paul Millsap arriving from Atlanta in free agency, though this likely forces HC Mike Malone to shoehorn either undersized (Will Barton) or oversized (Juancho Hernangomez) components into wing minutes. And when Malone goes small, and without much protection at the rim from Nikola Jokic, the Nuggets can hemorrhage points. But this also has the makings of a top-five offense, with the wondrous 6-10 Jokic effectively running the show that has so much potential firepower than the “Manimal” (PF Kenneth Faried), the key cog not long ago, was out of the rotations late in the preseason. Good offense and bad defense (the basketball opposite of the NFL Broncos) create a high-wire act in Denver, so we’re going to pass at Pepsi Center...

Smiles everywhere now for the Oklahoma City Thunder (53), with Russell Westbrook very chummy with new teammates Paul George and Carmelo Anthony, the latter also good friends off of the court. But let’s see how these guys behave when the games start and there is only one ball to share among them, in particular how Westbrook deals with ‘Melo, who can be most effective when the Thunder slows the pace and hunts mismatches, hardly Westbrook’s preference. After all, Westbrook was one of the highest-usage players in NBA history a year ago when he became the first since Oscar Robertson 55 years ago to average a triple-double, and how volume shooters like George and ‘Melo fit in and react when they’re not the first (or perhaps even second) scoring options suggests that HC Billy Donovan might need to hire Dr. Phil to deal with the interpersonal dynamics that are certain to get strained. If Donovan does figure things out, it might not come until after New Year’s, when OKC will have likely given away some games. Plenty of banana peels in the West, too. “Under” at The Peake...

In the East, the Portland Trailblazers (42½) are a playoff team; in the West, they might have trouble getting above .500. There is hope a defense that upgraded considerably after 7-footer Jusuf Nurkic arrived from Denver at the trade deadline will continue that form from the outset this season, and LY’s arrival of Evan Turner provided another reliable scorer outside of the Damian Lillard-CJ McCollum axis. But any combination without either of those three on the floor will feature a bevy of unreliable 3-point shooters. Tough call for us at the Moda Center, where we will pass instead...

The death-knell has been sounded by many for the Utah Jazz (41) after Gordon Hayward and his funny haircut bolted for Boston in free agency. But discount the Jazz at your own risk. Utah will miss Hayward as a fail-safe option on the attack end, but Quin Snyder’s intricate, drawn-out set pieces have carved a unique niche for the Jazz in an era of turbo-powered offenses. Snyder also has 11 rotation pieces, a fierce rim protector in Rudy Gobert, and a top five defense. They do it differently in Utah, but they do it well. “Over” in Salt Lake City.

Pacific Division Best Bets

At $399 a pop, we wonder how sales are going for the “Big Baller” shoe brand. (Give it to LaVar Ball, he’s found a way to make some legit money from his kids). But it is asking an awful lot of UCLA rookie Lonzo Ball to almost single-handedly revive the LA Lakers (34), who have seen their local media so over-hype Lonzo that the oddsmakers are fooled into believing the team is ready for an 8-win upgrade. Which would be a neat trick after three of the top four scorers from last season left town. And while Ball is good, we’re not sure he’s a transcendent player; after all, he only helped pushed UCLA to last year’s Sweet 16 and a loss to Kentucky, when Ball wasn’t the best player on the floor (that would have rather clearly been now-Sacto rookie De’Aaron Fox). Ex-Nets C Brook Lopez might be a more important piece in a move close to 34 wins, but Lopez has a history of injury problems, and the Lake Show was still one of the worst defensive teams in the league in Luke Walton’s HC debut; Ball is not going to help in that regard, either. Jack Nicholson might not agree, but we’re looking “under” with the Lake Show...

At the other end of the Staples Center, most foresee a big dropoff for the LA Clippers (44) after Chris Paul’s move to Houston. Paul, however, was hurt regularly over the past few seasons, and no one seemed to much enjoy playing with him, so not sure his departure is a death-knell for HC Doc Rivers. Especially since the return on the Paul trade from Houston fortified Doc’s bench (Patrick Beverley, Lou Williams, Sam Dekker, and Montrezl Harrell all likely to have nice roles), while Danillo Gallinari (if healthy) can remove some of the scoring burden from Blake Griffin. We’re also watching Euro import PG Milos Teodosic, who is wowing ‘em in preseason, and even if his defense is suspect, Rivers could mitigate that somewhat by pairing Teodosic with the terrier-like Beverley, one of the NBA peskiest stoppers. After proving a big tease the past few years, Doc might be stewarding one of the league’s pleasant surprises this season. “Over” at the Clip Joint.

Others...

While everyone wonders if the Golden State Warriors (67½) are going to lose a game, it’s worth noting (and we’re nit-picking a bit here) that Steph Curry & Co. have exceeded this mega-win total just once in the past three Finals seasons, landing right on 67 twice; the year Golden State won a record 73 was also the season in which Steve Kerr’s bunch lost in the Finals to the Cavs. The fact the Warriors tapped the brakes down the stretch last season rather than get overly-concerned about a regular-season win mark has to be considered in any win projection. Adding another electric scorer (Nick Young) freshens the roster just enough, though we wonder what might happen to the offense if Curry goes out; with him on the floor, Golden State was a not surprising first in points per 100 possessions, but dropped to 26th in the same category with no Steph. Kevin Durant was the Finals MVP, but an injury to Curry might prove a bigger hurdle to overcome. Not to mention maintaining the energy in a tough West to get to 68 wins. We gulp and say Warriors fall just short, and look “under” in Oakland...

The Phoenix Suns (29) are the rare college team developing within an NBA team, featuring a lineup that in past decades would be more worried about March Madness than the NBA Finals. The new one-and-done to watch is Kansas rookie wing Josh Jackson, but the Suns remain more interesting as individuals (Devin Booker, Marquess Chriss, Eric Bledsoe, TJ Warren, and now Jackson) than as a group. If there is an “over” in Phoenix it will likely be calls from potential suitors at the trade deadline; Bledsoe, plus two of the few vets on the roster (Tyson Chandler and Jared Dudley), figure to be on the radar of several teams in February, so expect the Suns to make a deal or two and maybe add another high pick for next year’s draft. Still, we’re looking “under” at the Talking Stick...

Something funny seemed to happen with the Sacramento Kings (27½) down the stretch last season after offloading Boogie Cousins to the Pelicans at the deadline. Shed of that powderkeg, Sacto suddenly looked as if it enjoyed playing once more, with another couple of former Kentucky bigs, Skal Labissiere and Willie Cauley-Stein, beginning to look more comfy. This season’s adjustment period likely lasts into November, if not beyond, as HC Dave Joerger used five different starting combinations in the preseason, and the current injury list is lengthy (rookies De’Aaron Fox, Harry Giles, and Bogdan Bogdanovic, plus vet G George Hill all hurting, though none seriously so, as exhibition play concluded). But adding vets like Hill, Zach Randolph, and ageless Vince Carter to this young core makes the Kings more intriguing than most of the projected also-rans, with the bountiful rookie class also including North Carolina wing Justin Jackson and Kansas G Frank Mason III, who could turn into the draft bargain of the year. “Over” at the Golden One Center, our vote as the co-best venue in the league (alongside Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indy).

Central Division Best Bets
ASAWins.com

Indiana Pacers (OVER 30.5)

Indiana was just below league averages in terms of both offensive and defensive efficiency which was good enough to earn the 7th seed in the East with a 42-40 record. But gone from last years roster is Paul George, who led the team in scoring and steals per game along with the man who led them in assists, George Teague.

They added Victor Oladipo (16PPG, 2.6APG) and Domantas Sabonis in the trade with the Thunder and brought in Darren Collison (4.6 assists per game and 13.2PPG for the Kings last year) so it’s not like the cupboard is bare.

Third-year player Myles Turner will become the focal point of this team moving forward and he’s not a bad option to build your team around. Turner was in elite company as a 20 year old last year to average more than 14PPG, 7RPG and 2BPG. Only Anthony Davis, Chris Webber, Kevin Garnett and Shaq have done it before in the NBA.

Thaddeus Young is also a serviceable power forward who averaged 11PPG and 6.1RPG. We feel the oddsmakers have over-adjusted this win total and feel the sum parts can replace George and Teague’s production.

Our favorite Over bet is the Pacers to win more than 31 games.

Chicago Bulls (No Play 22.5)

This isn’t the same Bulls roster that won 41 games last season as key pieces Jimmy Butler and Dwyane Wade have bolted for greener pastures. Chicago has a tentative starting lineup of: Kris Dunn, Justin Holiday, Zach LaVine, Robin Lopez and Nikola Mirotic. Those five players COMBINED to average: 25 minutes per game, 10.2 points per game, 4 rebounds per game and 1.7 assists per game!

Only Mirotic and Holiday were in the top half of the NBA in real plus/minus stats which makes this lineup one of the worst in the league. In fact, our power ratings have the Bulls as one of the bottom four teams in the NBA this season. It’s going to be a long year in the Windy City and we’ll lean towards UNDER 22.5 wins.

Cleveland Cavaliers (OVER 54.5)

The new look Cavaliers look to improve upon their 51 regular season win total from last year with a revamped roster that on paper looks outstanding. The key here is ‘on paper’ as we’re not sure what kind of chemistry this ego driven unit will have.

The Cavs shipped Kyrie Irving to Boston for essentially Jae Crowder and Isaiah Thomas and brought in vets Jeff Green, Dwyane Wade and Derrick Rose. Already there are issues arising with volatile JR Smith having to move to the bench in favor of D-Wade (LeBron’s best buddy). But the Cavs are now extremely deep and could have a second unit better than 8 other starting units in the East. That translates to rest for LeBron and Wade without sacrificing regular season wins.

Cleveland couldn’t win it all last season because their defense was awful, ranking 21st in defensive efficiency and we’re not sure their current roster will be better in that regard? Two other Central Division teams, the Bulls and Pacers, are rebuilding as both lost their best players (Jimmy Butler, D-Wade and Paul George), so the Division has gotten weaker overall.

The Cavs won over 72% of their games against the East last year (17-18 SU versus the West) and because of their depth this season we expect them to win 55+.

Milwaukee Bucks (OVER 46.5)

The Bucks are an up-and-coming team in the NBA with the 23 year old “Greek Freak” Giannis Antetokounmpo leading the way in Milwaukee. Giannis averaged 22.9PPG, 8.8RPG and 5.4APG which puts him in some exclusive company. The only other three NBA players average more than 22PPG, 8.5RPG and 5APG were Russell Westbrook, James Harden and LeBron James. The Bucks were 13th in offensive efficiency ratings at 1.091 points per possession but just 19th in defensive efficiency ratings allowing 1.093PPP and really need to rebound better (29th last season) as a team.

Milwaukee gets a boost with Jabari Parker coming back after playing in just 51 games a year ago before a knee injury cost him the rest of the season. Parker was averaging 20PPG on 49% shooting to go along 6.2 rebounds per game. Khris Middleton came back from an injury to play in 35 games last season and if this scoring guard can regain his form from the 2015-16 season where he averaged over 18PPG the Bucks could be a top 3 team in the East.

The Bucks won 42 games in the regular season a year ago which was a 9 game improvement over the previous season. Can they make that jump again? That might be a stretch but we do think they’ll win more than 47.

Detroit Pistons (No Play 38.5)

The Pistons won 37 games a year ago with some interesting results when it comes to non-conference and conference games. Everyone knows the East is weaker than the West and yet the Pistons were just 5-11 SU in the Division and 21-31 SU versus the entire East overall. Shockingly, Detroit went 16-14 SU against the West?

The Pistons had a negative point differential of -1.2PPG on the season and were a bottom 8 team in the league in offensive efficiency ratings. They made up for their offensive shortcomings with a defensive efficiency rating of 1.072PPP which was 7th best in the NBA.

Detroit did bring in Avery Bradley who averaged career highs in scoring (16.3) and rebounding (6.1) last season in Boston. The core players from last year return with double-double machine Andre Dummond (averaged over 13.5 points and rebounds per game) and PG Reggie Jackson who missed 30 games a year ago due to knee tendinitis. The Pistons should win more games in the East this year but the West record is going to swing the other way too. No play either way here.

Atlantic Division Best Bets
ASAWins

Boston Celtics Over 54

The Celtics made some bold moves in the offseason by adding All-Stars Kyrie Irving (Cavs) and Gordon Hayward (Jazz) to a team that won 53 regular season games a year ago. In addition to those two, don’t forget about another other key piece in Marcus Morris (14 PPG, 4.6 RPG) who came over from Detroit. This is the best young starting 5 in the East but depth could be a concern late in the season and the playoffs.

If you’re a basketball purist then you know just how great of a coach Brad Stevens is and he’ll have these Stars on the same page early on. Kyrie didn’t benefit from playing with LeBron like a great ‘spot up’ shooter would because he’s the type of playmaking point guard that needs the ball in his hands.

Kyrie is going to have a MONSTER year and is maybe the most talented 1 on 1 offensive player in the entire NBA. We can’t wait to see just how good rookie Jayson Tatum will be and expect him to be a major contributor this season. Throw in Al Horford and you have a team In the water downed East that can win OVER 54 games.

New York Knicks No Play 29.5

Gone from New York are Carmelo Anthony and GM Phil Jackson which means a whole lotta less drama in the Big Apple. That means the Knicks look to the future and will build around PF Kristaps Porzingis. Porzingis was New York’s best player a year ago ranking 68th in Real Plus Minus numbers.

Now that head coach Jeff Hornacek isn’t handcuffed running the Triangle offense, and Melo holding the ball, they should improve upon their 18th ranked offensive efficiency numbers. NY also brought in Tim Hardaway Jr who averaged a career high 14.5 PPG in Atlanta last year.

Doug McDermott and Enes Kanter (from Thunder) also join the Knicks from the Carmelo deal and provide depth and additional scoring. The Knicks are going to struggle with poor guard play and will again be right around that 31 win total from a year ago. Slight lean to the OVER here but not enough to make a wager. Pass.

Toronto Raptors Over 47.5

Won 56 regular season games two years ago then 51 in 2016-17. The Raptors are what we call a ‘false’ contender. Great individual talent with Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan, and a team built to win in the regular season, but they continually under-achieve in the postseason. Toronto will once again tease their fans with a solid regular season but go belly up in the Playoffs. The Raptors efficiency ratings during the regular season are outstanding with an offense that averages 1.123 points per possession and a defense allowing just 1.079 PPP.

In the playoffs though those numbers drop to 1.038 PPP offensively and 1.100 defensively. Toronto had the 4th best overall point differential in the NBA at +4.3 PPG in the regular season a year ago but a lot of their impressive numbers are bolstered by playing in the Atlantic Division with Philly, Brooklyn and New York. Those three teams combined for just 79 wins a year ago, lowest win total for the bottom three teams in any division a year ago. Barring several injuries or a major trade this team will succeed in the regular season again and win 50 plus games, but don’t expect a playoff run. Bet OVER if anything.

Philadelphia 76ers Under 39.5

There are high hopes in Philly surrounding this 76ers team and expectations this could be a playoff roster in the weak East. But we’ll have to pull a “not so fast my friend” here and pump the brakes in the Sixers team. Last year this team won 28 games which was a dramatic improvement over their 10 wins from the prior season but we don’t see another bump in wins this season. The starting lineup for Philly could very well feature four players under the age of 26 with three of those having a combined 31 games experience.

Joel Embiid could be a budding star if he can stay healthy. He played in just 31 games last season but averaged over 20 PPG, 7.8 RPG and had team high player efficiency rating (PER) of 24.2. There will be a ton of pressure on Ben Simmons (missed his entire rookie season) and Markelle Fultz, who are making their debuts this season.

The addition of vet J.J. Redick will bolster their guard play and perimeter shooting, but his overall shooting percentages took a dip last year which could be an indicator age is catching up to this 11 year vet. Even with their improvement in wins last season, the 76ers still had the 4th worst efficiency differential numbers (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency) in the NBA at minus -5.7EDIF. Expecting the 76ers to win nearly half of their regular season games is a stretch and we’ll side with under 39.5 wins.

Brooklyn Nets Over 27

The Nets have won just 21 and 20 games the past two seasons and had the second worst point differential in the NBA last season at minus -6.7PPG. They weren’t very efficient offensively (1.04 points per possession) and only Phoenix gave up more points per game than the Nets. Brooklyn made an effort to improve their roster by trading for D’Angelo Russell and Timofey Mozgov of the Lakers, along with signing DeMarre Carroll (Toronto) and Allen Crabbe of Portland.

The Nets also have circus attraction Jeremy Lin on the roster who’s OK but certainly not great. So here’s the dilemma for Nets fans. The aforementioned starting lineup has four players with a negative real plus/minus differential with DeMarre Carroll having the highest +/- number of +1.6 which was 101st in the league last season. Carroll saw his season averages drop last year from 12.6PPG the year before to 8.9PPG last season. His rebounding numbers dropped too from 5.3 RPG to just 3.8 RPG.

So even though it looks like Brooklyn made some strides to improve, they may not have. Strangely enough, the Nets won just 11 game against Eastern Conference opponents last year and 9 versus the West. If they can manage that same win total in the West this year we feel they can win 20 in the East. Slight lean to over here.

Win Total Best Bets
VegasInsider.com

The 2017-18 NBA season is here and it inevitably looks to be another Finals matchup between the Warriors and Cavaliers. However, plenty of big names moved around the league to help bolster the likes of Houston, Oklahoma City, and Boston, which could be contenders that could dethrone Golden State and Cleveland.

We polled our experts for the upcoming season to ask which squads are the best season win total plays in 2017-18.

Andy Iskoe believes the Timberwolves can finally get over the hump and cash their win total of 46½, “The Wolves have been assembling a quality roster over the past few seasons that is designed to be competitive for 3 to 5 seasons or more depending on health and personnel turnover. Coached by the highly respected Tom Thibodeau, who had success in Chicago before parting ways, ostensibly for 'philosophical differences', Minnesota is poised to have those moves pay off this season by making advances in the highly competitive Western Conference that is starting to see a not-so-gradual shift in power once you get by Golden State and San Antonio."

"It may be asking a lot for any team to improve by as many games as the oddsmakers are asking of the T-Wolves, who won just 31 games last season. But fates can turn quickly in the NBA as the Wolves fell from 40 wins four seasons ago to just 16 the following season, bouncing back to win 29 wins and then 31 last season. There are multiple All Star caliber players on this roster so an improvement of 16 games, while asking a lot, is achievable provided lengthy injuries are avoided (which is always the risk when going OVER season-long Totals).”

Another team expected to cash the OVER in the West is Utah, as Joe Nelson is high on this team in spite of a key offseason loss, “The Jazz jumped from 40-42 in 2015-16 to 51-31 in 2016-17, finishing fourth in the Western Conference and advancing to the Conference semifinals. Losing Gordon Hayward was a big blow, but Rudy Gobert is the centerpiece of a squad that allowed the fewest points in the NBA last season, at just 96.8 points per game. Ricky Rubio takes over at point guard and #13 pick Donovan Mitchell is capable of being an impact rookie in the backcourt as well."

"Rodney Hood figures to pick up Hayward’s lead scoring role, averaging 12.7 points per game last season with improved outside shooting numbers now entering his fourth season with Utah. Utah features one of the tougher home courts in the league going 29-12 last season in Salt Lake City and the Jazz have a chance to pick up some big wins early in the season with October games with some of those teams in major transitions including facing Minnesota, Oklahoma City, and the L.A. Clippers in three of the first four games.”

On the flip side, Oklahoma City picked up several stars in Paul George and Carmelo Anthony, but Don Anthony doesn’t believe lightning will strike for the Thunder, “Everyone is going to want to run and bet this over thinking they have an All-NBA team now with Westbrook, Anthony, and George. First off, it’s going to take a while for this team to gel and secondly, these are three players that need to be the go-to guy and who want the ball. This reminds me a lot of the Iverson and Anthony experiment in Denver. I can see this falling apart quickly if they go on a losing skid. Carmelo will pout and team chemistry will all but disappear. I believe the George wants to be in L.A. and he will just be playing this year out so even more reason to give up if things start going south. Thirty losses gets us the win here and having to play in the ultra-tough Western Conference, this is the best bet of the season.”

In the Eastern Conference, the Pistons seem to be ready to make a move, according to Marc Lawrence.

“Year 4 of the Stan Van Gundy era finds the Pistons looking to improve on Detroit’s regular season win totals of 32, 44, and 37 in Van Gundy’s first three seasons, respectively. The addition of former Celtics G Avery Bradley, along with highly anticipated improvement from promising second-year F Stanley Johnson, complimenting PG Reggie Jackson and C Andre Drummond finds the Pistons in a favorable position to get possibly get closer to the 44 win total rather than the first-year 32 victory season under Gundy. Value here from last year’s 45.5 posted win total.”

One Eastern team that could take a step backwards resides north of the border as Stephen Nover explains, “A number of teams in the Eastern Conference have gotten better. The Raptors have gotten worse. Deep inside the Toronto players realize they can't win the conference anymore let alone the division. They aren't a clutch team. That could affect their play.”

“The Raptors lost much of their depth and defense with DeMarre Carroll, Patrick Patterson, Cory Joseph and P.J. Tucker leaving. Serge Ibaka is on the downside of his career and Kyle Lowry is injury-prone and may be fat and happy after signing a three-year, $100 million dollar contract. Teams that rely on their backcourt to do the heavy lifting just don't go far.”

Below are the season win totals courtesy of Las Vegas Westgate SuperBook:

Atlanta Hawks 27.5
Boston Celtics 53.5
Brooklyn Nets 26.5
Charlotte Hornets 42.5
Chicago Bulls 22.5
Cleveland Cavaliers 54.5
Dallas Mavericks 35.5
Denver Nuggets 43.5
Detroit Pistons 38.5
Golden State Warriors 67.5
Houston Rockets 54.5
Indiana Pacers 30.5
Los Angeles Clippers 42.5
Los Angeles Lakers 32.5
Memphis Grizzlies 38.5
Miami Heat 42.5
Milwaukee Bucks 46.5
Minnesota Timberwolves 46.5
New Orleans Pelicans 40.5
New York Knicks 30.5
Oklahoma City Thunder 52.5
Orlando Magic 30.5
Philadelphia 76ers 40.5
Phoenix Suns 28.5
Portland Trail Blazers 40.5
Sacramento Kings 29
San Antonio Spurs 53.5
Toronto Raptors 47.5
Utah Jazz 38.5
Washington Wizards 48.5