NBA betting trends, odds and predictions for Tuesday, October 17th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
NBA Knowledge
Not a lot to go on for the first 7-10 days, until these teams get some games under their belts. I’ll give you what relevant information I have:
Cavaliers won five of their last six games with Boston, beating Celtics in 5 games in playoffs LY. Road team won five of last six series games. Celtics lost four of last five visits here, but went 3-1-1 vs spread in those games (over 4-1). These teams made a big trade in offseason; Irving is now a Celtic, Thomas is out with an injury.
Golden State won 8 of last 10 games with Houston (7-3 vs spread); under is 6-1 in last seven series games. Rockets, who now have Chris Paul, lost four of last five visits to Oakland (2-3 vs spread). Warriors probably get their championship rings tonight, which can be a distraction.
Armadillosports.com
NBA Pick ‘n' Roll: Tuesday’s Picks and Analysis
Covers.com
Boston Celtics at Cleveland Cavaliers (-3.5, 212)
What a treat for hoop heads on the opening night of the NBA season. A rematch of the previous Eastern Conference Finals was always going to be interesting, but a late offseason trade between the two squads is like the salted caramel flavor in our ice cream dish.
First there was Shaq vs. Kobe, then Russ vs. Durant, now we have LeBron vs. Kyrie. The NBA is a soap opera and we love every dramatic, pre-game ghost handshake between former teammates.
The Cavs will run out three new players in their starting five and Kevin Love will be playing in a new position as the team’s starting center. Derrick Rose, Dwyane Wade and Jae Crowder are still figuring out where they fit in a LeBron James-led offense.
Cleveland’s roster turnover pales in comparison to Boston. Gone are Avery Bradley, Kelly Olynyk and Isaiah Thomas and Crowder. The Celtics return only three players from their 10-man rotation last season.
New Celtic Kyrie Irving is a talent but he also likes to dribble… a lot. The ball is supposed to move in a Brad Stevens offense and that will be a long learning process for Irving.
Pick: Cavs -3
Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors (-9.5, 229)
Chris Paul is hoping a new team will mean a new result when he plays against the Golden State Warriors. The nine-time NBA All-Star was 1-11 straight up in his last 12 games against the Warriors as a member of the Los Angeles Clippers.
The Rockets now have two of the best offensive creators in Paul and MVP runner-up James Harden, but they are both used to having the ball in their hands and directing play. Expect some “your turn, my turn” offense early on from Harden and Paul similar to what we saw from LeBron James and Dwyane Wade in their first few games as teammates with the Miami Heat back in 2010.
The Heat covered the spread in just five of their first 18 games that season and the under went 4-0 in their first four contest. Miami scored just 80 points in its season-opening loss that year.
Pick: Under
Totals Streaks
* The over is 20-7-1 in the Cavs’ last 28 home games and 40-19-1 in their last 60 games overall.
* The under is 6-1 in the last seven games between the Rockets and Warriors.
Injury To Note
Point guard Isaiah Thomas won’t be making his Cavaliers debut anytime soon. The two-time NBA All-Star and offensive dynamo is still recovering from offseason surgery on his hip. Derrick Rose will start in Thomas’ place until he can return – which is expected to be around the All-Star break.
Top Trends
* The Rockets are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games overall.
* The Warriors are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against Houston.
* The Cavaliers are 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five home openers.
Ref Review
Brian Forte and Michael Smith
Forte and Smith will be working with Monty McCutchen on Tuesday night in Cleveland. Forte and Smith were two of the better refs for the hosting clubs last season. Home teams went 38-30-1 ATS in games officiated by Forte and 34-26 ATS in games refed by Smith.
Consensus
More than 60 percent of the public likes the Cavaliers to cover as 3.5-point home favorites against the visiting Celtics.
Cavaliers host Kyrie's Celtics
By: Sam Chase
StatFox.com
The NBA regular season opens with Kyrie Irving's return to Cleveland on Tuesday.
In what was widely considered to be the craziest offseason in NBA history, the craziest event of all was Cavaliers All-Star point guard Kyrie Irving asking for a trade from Cleveland and LeBron James, the player whose arrival had brought Irving to three straight NBA Finals. Actually, the craziest thing was what happened next: Irving was traded to rival Boston for PG Isaiah Thomas, SF Jae Crowder, C Ante Zizic and the Brooklyn Nets' first-round pick in the upcoming NBA Draft. It was the wildest trade in recent memory. "It’s a trade you make in NBA2K. It’s not a trade you make in real life," Thomas told Sports Illustrated. The deal was just part of a complete overhaul to the Celtics roster, which earned the No. 1 seed in the East last season. Only four players from that team remain in Boston. Cleveland, meanwhile, has James on the last year of his contract and will have a completely new look without Irving as his sidekick. Given how Cavs fans typically respond to players leaving their city, expect a rude reception for Kyrie when the season opens in Cleveland on Tuesday night. Thomas is expected to be out for the Cavaliers until around Christmas, while James' status is uncertain for opening night due to an ankle injury he sustained during the regular season. He has never missed an opener in his career.
Leaving the Celtics this offseason alongside Thomas and Crowder were Avery Bradley, Kelly Olynyk and Amir Johnson, all key players at various points of Boston's three consecutive playoff appearances. While Thomas grew increasingly ball-dominant over the course of his time there, Brad Stevens' offense is known for featuring plenty of ball movement. Everyone around the league is curious to see how Irving fits in. He's the league's most exciting dribbler and its most creative finisher at the rim, and he sported the ninth-highest usage rate in the league last season (30.7%) despite ostensibly playing second fiddle to James. Much talk in the preseason has been dedicated to him becoming more of a "true" point guard, and we'll see on Tuesday just how far he has come in that respect. SF Gordon Hayward also joined the Celtics in dramatic fashion this offseason, albeit via free agency. Hayward was the best offensive player on a Utah Jazz team that made it to the second round of the treacherous Western Conference playoffs last season, and Boston fans had had their eyes on him for years. He's skilled at positioning himself to score off the ball, which would seem to make him a good fit alongside Irving. C Al Horford and PG Marcus Smart return as key cogs from last year's team. Smart looks slimmer after changing his diet in the offseason, and he now stands out as easily Boston's best perimeter defenders. The Celtics also having a promising duo of No. 3 overall picks from the last two drafts in SF Jaylen Brown and incoming rookie SF Jayson Tatum. Both figure to play significant roles on this year's team.
"He's getting older, like me," Cleveland head coach Tyronn Lue said about James' ankle injury that has him questionable for Tuesday. He was joking, but with James two months away from his 33rd birthday, entering his 15th season in the league and having played in the last seven NBA Finals, the wear and tear on LeBron's body could very well catch up to him this season. He's looked largely indestructible throughout his career and rarely shown signs of fatigue, but he would seem primed to exit the prime of his career any time now. Fortunately, he plays for a team that appropriately devalues the regular season, and he'll see plenty of rest during the 2017-18 campaign. But without Irving and with Thomas out indefinitely with a hip injury, it's unclear who will lead the Cavaliers when James wants to take a back seat. PG Derrick Rose and SG Dwyane Wade, both once MVP-level players, joined the Cleveland backcourt this offseason, but both are now quite limited in what they can do. Wade has an unmatched chemistry with James from their time together in Cleveland, but his limited outside shooting ability doesn't make him an ideal sidekick these days, at least on paper. It will be interesting to see how the Cavs balance playing time at the two spot between him and SG J.R. Smith. PF Kevin Love, once a star in Minnesota, could see his game illuminated once again with Irving out the door. He had become an afterthought in the Irving/James offense, relegated to spotting up for three-pointers. He may now see more sets designed for him to score. Crowder represents one of the best defenders to play on the same team as James in recent years, and his ability to guard opposing forwards will take some pressure off LeBron on the defensive end.
Rockets, Warriors meet on Tuesday night
StatFox.com
The Warriors get their rings, and CP3 makes his Rockets debut on Tuesday.
The second game of the 2017-18 NBA season will take place in Oakland on Tuesday night, when the reigning champion Golden State Warriors will raise the second championship banner of the dynasty they appear to be currently building. SF Kevin Durant, who joined the team in summer 2016, will finally get the ring after which he has long thirsted. In town for the crowning will be the Houston Rockets, one of the teams in the Western Conference that closest resembles competition for the dominant Warriors. After a revelatory 55-win regular season last year--and a disheartening second round playoff exit--Houston made one of the biggest splashes of the offseason by trading for one of the greatest point guards of all time in Chris Paul. Alongside SG James Harden, Paul is hoping to do what he never could as a Los Angeles Clipper: take down Golden State. Last season, Houston was 14-4 ATS as a road underdog, and 23-12 ATS in the first half of the campaign. Since the beginning of the 2015-16 season, Golden State is 54-29 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. SF Andre Iguodala is questionable to play for the Warriors.
Houston coach Mike D'Antoni turned Harden into the league's best-rounded offensive weapon last season, as the shooting guard-turned-point guard averaged 29.1 PPG, 11.2 APG and 8.1 RPG. He became a model of efficiency, getting to the free throw line more than ever before (which is saying something) and kicking out to one of the best three-point-shooting supporting casts in league history. That group included SG Eric Gordon, PF Ryan Anderson and SF Trevor Ariza, all of whom return to this year's roster. The Rockets did, however, lose valuable depth in the Paul trade. Bulldog PG Patrick Beverley will no longer hound opposing ball-handlers for the Rockets, SG Lou Williams was one of the team's best scorers and PF Montrezl Harrell was a solid body inside. Of course, what the Rockets get in Paul made the trade more than worth it. He's one of the best passers and floor generals in league history, and an underrated shooter and scorer. Houston figures to make sure that at least one of them will be on the floor for all 48 minutes, and it will be interesting to see how they coexist when on the court together. The team also added forwards PJ Tucker and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute in the offseason, both of whom can and will contribute valuable minutes.
What is there to say about the Warriors that hasn't already been said? There's Durant, the near seven-footer who can get a shot off over any defender that manages to stay in front of him. He averaged 25.1 PPG in his first year in Golden State, his lowest such number since his rookie year, and his 16.5 FGA was the lowest of his career. His FG% of .537, however, was easily the best of his time in the NBA. He made the Warriors offense even more of an unstoppable machine than it was before, and his length made the defense even more intimidating. PG Steph Curry also saw his production decline somewhat with Durant's arrival, but still made far more three-pointers (324) than anyone else in the NBA. There's always a latent fear that a resentment of KD could lead to Steph being disgruntled, but he's yet to confirm that concern in any meaningful way. SG Klay Thompson was second to Curry among league three-point leaders (268), but saw his offensive looks reduced far more than any other Warrior once the postseason rolled around. But seeing as Golden State only lost one game in the entire playoffs, it was apparently the right move. PF Draymond Green is the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, and Iguodala has become one of the league's most underappreciated players. New arrivals SG Nick Young and SF Omri Casspi figure to be deadly from the perimeter with the open looks they'll get on this team, and rookie PF Jordan Bell was a shot-blocking machine at Oregon.
NBA Opening Night Betting Preview
Covers.com
After what may be the wildest offseason ever, the NBA action finally returns to the court Tuesday night with an epic doubleheader. The season opens with Kyrie Irving making his return to Cleveland, before James Harden and Chris Paul try to show the West isn't just the Warriors for the taking.
Boston Celtics at Cleveland Cavaliers (-3.5, 212)
Kyrie Irving figures to receive a chilly reception when he returns to Cleveland as a member of the Boston Celtics for Tuesday's season-opening game against the Cavaliers. Irving played six seasons with Cleveland but requested a trade following last season and ended up in Boston for a package that included point guard Isaiah Thomas and forward Jae Crowder.
The four-time All-Star guard helped Cleveland reach three NBA Finals - including winning the 2016 title - but reportedly tired of playing with forward LeBron James and now attempts to downplay his return to no avail. "The excitement and the energy is there but I think everything extra has been created by outside influence," Irving said. "So that's neither here nor there. I don't know what that reality is. ... It's going to happen regardless. That's just the nature of the business. I understand that." Irving helped the Cavaliers defeat the Celtics in last season's Eastern Conference finals and Cleveland's revamped roster includes veteran guards Dwyane Wade, Derrick Rose and Jose Calderon in addition to newcomers Thomas (out due to hip surgery) and Crowder. James has been bothered by a sprained left ankle and his availability may not be determined until close to tipoff.
LINE HISTORY: The Cavs opened this Eastern Conference Final rematch favored by 4-points at home and were bet down to -3.5, but as of Tuesday morning the line returned to the opening number. The total opened at 212 and dropped to 211, but has come back up to the current number of 212.5.
INJURY REPORT:
Celtics - C Aaron Baynes (Probable Tuesday, knee), PF Marcus Morris (Late October, knee)
Cavaliers - PF Kevin Love (Probable Tuesday, knee), SF LeBron James (Questionable Tuesday, ankle), PG Isaiah Thomas (Mid January, hip).
ABOUT THE CELTICS (2016-17: 53-29, 40-40-2 ATS, 39-39-4 O/U): Irving wasn't the lone big offseason acquisition as Boston lured All-Star small forward Gordon Hayward (formerly of the Utah Jazz) to town with a four-year, $128 million deal. The move to Boston allows Hayward to reunite with Brad Stevens, his former college coach at Butler, and he looks to build off a career-best 2016-17 campaign in which he averaged 21.9 points and 5.4 rebounds per game. Veteran post player Al Horford, second-year swingman Jaylen Brown and rookie forward Jayson Tatum are the other likely starters, with Tatum drawing the assignment of guarding James in his NBA debut.
ABOUT THE CAVALIERS (2016-17: 51-31, 36-53-3 ATS, 47-34-1 O/U): James missed four of Cleveland's five preseason games but he did participate in Monday's practice, which consisted of shooting drills and a walkthrough. "You know I never hide stuff from you guys, I really don't know," Cavaliers coach Tyronn Lue told reporters. "I mean, just depends on how he feels after (Monday), but I really don't know." Thomas may not make his Cleveland debut until around the All-Star break, so veterans like Rose, Wade and J.R. Smith will be asked to help James and center Kevin Love on the scoring side.
TRENDS:
* Cavaliers are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.
* Road team is 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings.
* Over is 20-7 in Cavaliers last 27 home games.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Cleveland.
CONSENSUS: Bettors are giving LeBron the edge in this matchup with 60 percent of the public on the Cavaliers. Bettors are also expecting a high scoring matchup, with 62 percent of wagers on the Over.
Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors (-9.5, 229)
The Golden State Warriors begin pursuit of their third NBA title in four seasons when they host the Houston Rockets in Tuesday's season-opening clash. The Warriors defeated the Cleveland Cavaliers to win last season's NBA Finals and will be in the hunt again this season behind the star quartet of forwards Kevin Durant and Draymond Green and guards Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson.
Curry and Durant co-existed beautifully in the latter's first season with the Warriors but now the focus is on Curry, who coach Steve Kerr predicts will be better than his two recent NBA MVP campaigns of 2014-15 and 2015-16. "I think Steph is at his absolute peak right now," Kerr told reporters. "Physically, emotionally, this is probably as good as he's ever going to be, this year. I think he's better now than he was last year and the year before. And that's saying something." The Rockets added veteran point guard Chris Paul to the James Harden-led group and coach Mike D'Antoni feels his squad is closer to competing with the Warriors in terms of a possible matchup in the Western Conference finals. "We closed the gap only because I feel that we're better this year than last year," D'Antoni told reporters. "Now, we'll see if they're better. They might be better, so maybe it's an illusion. That's the reason we can say that. We just feel like we're a better team this year."
LINE HISTORY: The defending champion Warriors opened this matchup at most shops favored by 9.5-points, but they have been bet down slightly to the current number of Warriors -9. The total opened at a very high 232 and was bet down as far as 228, before rebounding to the current number of 229.5.
INJURY REPORT:
Rockets - PG Chris Paul (Probable Tuesday, knee).
Warriors - SG Andre Iguodala (Probable Tuesday, back), SF Omar Casspi (Probable Tuesday, ankle), PF Draymond Green (Probable Tuesday, back), PG Shaun Livingston (Probable Tuesday, illness), SF Kevin Durant (Probable Tuesday, illness).
ABOUT THE ROCKETS (2016: 55-27, 42-20 ATS, 41-40-1 O/U): Harden was a do-it-all machine last season when he was the runner-up for MVP to Oklahoma City's Russell Westbrook, but Paul is now around to be the primary ball-handler. "I can adjust to anybody," Harden told reporters. "Anybody that is a leader can figure it out and work together. That's just how life works. Anybody that works hard and has a great work ethic and loves and is passionate about something will be able to mesh and work together no matter what. We bring those qualities out of each other, me and CP. It's bound to work." Houston will again hoist a ton of 3-pointers as Harden (262), guard Eric Gordon (246) and forward Ryan Anderson (204) each topped 200 last season while forward Trevor Ariza (191) fell just short.
ABOUT THE WARRIORS (2016: 67-15, 40-39-3 ATS, 32-50 O/U): Durant enters this season in a comfortable position after the decision to leave Oklahoma City 15 months ago created plenty of drama, in addition to the upheaval of moving from a town he spent eight seasons living in to adjusting to a new city before capping off the season by being named Finals MVP. "He looked so relaxed and confident," Kerr said of Durant's preseason play. "Last year, he was trying to decipher what we were doing. This year, he just did it. There's a comfort level that exists now that allows him to go out there and play without thinking." Thompson remains one of the best two-way shooting guards in the NBA while Green is the reigning NBA Defensive Player of the Year.
TRENDS:
* Warriors are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 vs. Southwest Division opponents.
* Rockets are 1-5 ATS in the last six meetings.
* Under is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.
* Over is 5-0 in Warriors last five vs. Southwest Division opponents.
CONSENSUS: Despite the sky-high expectations for the Warriors this season, bettors think the spread in this matchup is too much with 60 percent of the public on the new-look Rockets. Bettors also think this will be a high-scoring game, even with a total hovering around 230, 59 percent of wagers are on the Over.