WNBA betting trends, odds and predictions for Sunday, September 24th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
WNBA Finals Cheat Sheet
VegasInsider.com
Minnesota vs. Los Angeles
Best-of-Five (2-2-1 Format)
Game 1 – Sunday, Sept. 24
Game 2 – Tuesday, Sept. 26
Game 3 – Friday, Sept. 29
Game 4 – Sunday, Oct. 1
Game 5 – Wednesday, Oct. 4
Series Price
Minnesota -160
Los Angeles +140
Betting Notes - Minnesota
Minnesota swept Washington 3-0 in the semifinals, winning all three games by double digits. The Lynx went 2-1 against the spread in the series.
Including the playoffs, the Lynx have won six straight games by 10-plus points and they’ve covered the number in four of those games.
The ‘over’ went 2-1 in the semifinals.
Minnesota has gone 17-2 SU and 9-10 ATS at the Xcel Energy Center this season while the ‘under’ produced a 10-9 record.
The Lynx were 13-5 SU and 11-7 ATS on the road this season.
The ‘under’ has gone 6-1 in the last seven away games for Minnesota.
Betting Notes – Los Angeles
Los Angeles advanced to the WNBA Finals with a three-game sweep over Phoenix in the semifinals.
The Sparks went 2-1 versus the number and only failed to cover Game 3 as they nipped the Mercury 89-87 as 4 ½-point road favorites.
Los Angeles will bring a 10-game winning streak into the finals and the club has gone 9-1 ATS during this run while the ‘under’ is 7-3 over this span.
The Sparks went 18-1 SU and 14-5 ATS at home this season.
Los Angeles went 11-9 SU and 10-8 ATS away from home this season.
Similar to Minnesota, the ‘under’ has been a solid wager for L.A. on the road lately with a 5-2 mark in its last seven.
2017 Regular Season Encounters
July 6 – Minnesota 88 (-6.5) vs. Los Angeles 77 (Under 166.5)
August 11 - Los Angeles 70 (+5.5) at Minnesota 64 (Under 161.5)
August 27 – Los Angeles 78 (-2.5) vs. Minnesota 67 (Under 155.5)
2016 WNBA Finals
Game 1 – Los Angeles 78 (+6.5) at Minnesota 76 (Under 161)
Game 2 – Minnesota 79 (-7) vs. Los Angeles 60 (Under 159)
Game 3 – Los Angeles 92 (+1) vs. Minnesota 75 (Over 159.5)
Game 4 – Minnesota 85 (+1) at Los Angeles 79 (Over 160)
Game 5 – Los Angeles 77 (+5.5) at Minnesota 76 (Under 156.5)
WNBA Finals History – 1997-2016
The league went to a best-of-five format during the 2005 season. In the 12 series, we’ve seen five sweeps (3-0), four matchups go to a decisive Game 7 and three series end in four games (3-1).
The Sparks have won the WNBA Championship three times, including last year’s victory over Minnesota.
The previous title for the Sparks came in 20012 when the franchise pulled off the rare repeat.
Los Angeles failed to three-peat in 2003 as it was defeated by the now defunct Detroit Shock.
Since the 2011 season, Minnesota has won three championships and finished runner-up twice. The victories included two sweeps.
The Lynx have alternated titles the last six years and if that trend continues, they’ll be champions this seasons.
WNBA Betting Pick
By Allen Moody
Bangthebook.com
The WNBA Finals begin today and it’s no surprise that the defending champions, the Los Angeles Sparks, are facing off against the Minnesota Lynx for the title. The two have been the class of the WNBA the past few seasons and it was clear early on that these two were on a collision course to meet in the Finals once again.
Neither team had any trouble in the playoffs, sweeping their first opponent, and both covering two out of the three games. These two teams met three times during the regular season, splitting the two games played in Minnesota and Los Angeles won the lone game played in California. But the Lynx have home court advantage for the series, which is one reason why they are -190 to wrestle the crown away from the Sparks. The other is that they’re simply a little bit better of a team, head-to-head play notwithstanding.
The Lynx won the first meeting in an obvious revenge situation, having lost to the Sparks in the Finals a year ago, and Los Angeles returned the favor in the rematch, coming away with a 70-64 victory. In Los Angeles, the Lynx made 18 turnovers and were playing catch-up the entire way and fell 78-67 after trailing by 14 points at the half.
Minnesota is favored by 4.5 points for Game 1 after opening as 4-point favorites and the total on the game is 158.5, while my numbers have Minnesota winning 87-76. Still, I won’t play the over, as you have to expect a little bit of early nerves and believe that scoring will be down a little bit. All three regular season games between the two landed under, as did the first game of last year’s Finals, along with the second game and Game 5.
Both teams had a tendency to step up their defense when playing good offensive teams, with the Sparks going 7-20 in totals against teams averaging more than 77 points, although Los Angeles was a good under team all season. But LA was a better under team at home, where my numbers predict four fewer points per game.
For the season, the two teams are pretty comparable shooting, with LA a bit better from the four line and the Lynx better from 3-point range, while the Lynx also get a slight nod on defense, although it’s a relatively small one.
This one most likely goes to four or five games, but have to believe the Lynx will take their title back and will play Minnesota to win the series. If I had to play Game 1, would look at the home team and the under, but may be inclined to watch the first game and just have the series bet going.
LOS ANGELES (29 - 8 ) at MINNESOTA (30 - 7) - 9/24/2017, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LOS ANGELES is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road games on Sunday games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home games in August or September games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 24-14 ATS (+8.6 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 24-13 ATS (+9.7 Units) in all games this season.
LOS ANGELES is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in August or September games this season.
LOS ANGELES is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) after a division game this season.
LOS ANGELES is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.
LOS ANGELES is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
LOS ANGELES is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15+ games this season.
LOS ANGELES is 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games this season.
LOS ANGELES is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
LOS ANGELES is 10-8 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 10-8 straight up against LOS ANGELES over the last 3 seasons
12 of 18 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
LOS ANGELES vs. MINNESOTA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Los Angeles's last 5 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Los Angeles's last 5 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing at home against Los Angeles
Minnesota is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Los Angeles
StatFox Super Situations
LOS ANGELES at MINNESOTA
Play Under - Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 140 very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game, after allowing 75 points or more
101-54 since 1997. ( 65.2% | 41.6 units ) 7-7 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.7 units )
LOS ANGELES at MINNESOTA
Play Against - Road underdogs vs. the money line (LOS ANGELES) off a road win, in August or September games 138-45 since 1997. ( 75.4% | 0.0 units ) 8-1 this year. ( 88.9% | 0.0 units )
LOS ANGELES at MINNESOTA
Play Against - Road teams vs. the 1rst half line (LOS ANGELES) off a road win, in August or September games 55-24 over the last 5 seasons. ( 69.6% | 28.6 units ) 9-5 this year. ( 64.3% | 3.5 units )