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NBA Betting News and Notes Tuesday, May 23rd, 2017

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NBA betting trends, odds and predictions for Tuesday, May 23rd, 2017 from various handicappers and websites

 
Posted : May 23, 2017 10:32 am
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NBA Knowledge

Cavaliers were up 22-41 points at the half in first two series games, then led Game 3 by 21 points, but let it slip away and lost by 3. Cleveland is 10-1 in playoffs (7-1-1 vs spread in last nine games), 4-1 at home (2-3 vs spread); over is 8-3 in their last 11 games. Cavs are 9-3 in last 12 games vs Boston. Celtics lost three of last four games in this arena (2-1-1 vs spread). Boston lost five of last eight games overall, including three of last four on road. Over is 8-2 in Celtics’ last ten games. Isaiah Thomas (hip) is done for the year. Boston was 18-40 on arc in Game 3; they’ll need to repeat that here.

Armadillosports.com

 
Posted : May 23, 2017 10:33 am
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Game 4 - Celtics at Cavaliers
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

Boston at Cleveland

Down 2-0 in the Eastern Conference finals and trailing by 21 points in the third quarter of Game 3 on Sunday night at Quicken Loans Arena, Boston (62-36 straight up, 50-46-2 against the spread) reminded sports fans of why we play the games. Even with its best player Isaiah Thomas back in Beantown and ruled out for the rest of the playoffs with a hip injury, Brad Stevens’s squad pulled off one of the biggest stunners in recent NBA postseason history by rallying to capture a 111-108 win over Cleveland.

With the score knotted at 108-108 after Kyrie Irving pulled the Cavs even with a brilliant left-handed layup in traffic with 10.7 seconds remaining, Avery Bradley knocked down the game-winning 3-pointer after he was left wide open on the left wing. Al Horford set a great screen on Tristan Thompson, who tried to help after J.R. Smith and Iman Shumpert got confused on a switch and both went with Jae Crowder as he sliced to the basket.

Bradley’s shot left his hand with 2.8 seconds remaining. If he gets nothing by nylon, Cleveland would’ve burned its timeout and had the ball at halfcourt with a chance to tie with one second and change remaining. However, Bradley’s game-winner gave true definition to Tim Brando’s signature phrase, “the iron was kind.” His shot hit the rim four different times, burning clock in the process, before falling in with 0.1 seconds left. In this scenario with less than 0.3 ticks remaining, you only have time for a tip so the Cavs didn’t even use their final timeout.

Boston won outright as a 16.5-point underdog, hooking up money-line supporters with a remarkable 18/1 payout (paid $1,800 on $100 wagers). The 219 combined points slipped ‘over’ the 215.5-point total on Irving’s late score.

Marcus Smart was the catalyst for the Celtics, scoring a career-high 27 points thanks to 7-of-10 shooting from 3-point range. Smart added five rebounds, two steals, one block and seven assists compared to only two turnovers. Bradley contributed 20 points, three boards, two steals and four assists without a turnover, and Crowder had 14 points, 11 rebounds, three assists and three steals.

Al Horford finished with 16 points and six assists compared to merely one turnover, while Kelly Olynyk produced 15 points, three boards and two assists without a turnover. Jonas Jerebko took advantage of every second of his 12 minutes and 32 seconds spent on the floor. He had a team-high +22 plus-minus ranking, 10 points, five rebounds and one assist without a turnover. Jerebko hit all four of his shots, including both 3-point launches.

Smart’s 3-pointer with 5:43 remaining pulled Boston even at 95-95. Following a Cleveland timeout, J.R. Smith put the Cavs back up with a trey. But Olynyk put the Celtics into the lead with back-to-back buckets off of assists from Horford. Down 101-99, Smart kept a possession alive with consecutive offensive rebounds that resulted in Horford draining a 3-ball for a one-point advantage with 3:03 left.

After the lead changed hands twice, Horford’s drive for an easy bucket put Boston in front, 106-103, with 45 ticks remaining. Next, Smith responded with a trying triple at the 36-second mark. Then after great ball movement, Jerebko knocked down a 22-footer for a two-point lead with 30 seconds left.

Lebron James missed all four of his 3-pointers and made only 4-of-13 attempts from the field. He finished with 11 points, six assists, six rebounds and six turnovers. When James has been held to 15 points or fewer in his postseason career, his teams have lost 10 of 11 times.

Irving had a game-high 29 points and seven assists. He hit 10-of-15 FGAs and buried 4-of-6 from beyond the arc. Kevin Love scored 28 points, grabbed 10 rebounds and blocked three shots. Thompson finished with 18 points and 13 boards, while Smith contributed 13 points and eight rebounds.

Cleveland won the rebounding battle by a 46-38 margin and went to the free-throw line three times as often as Boston (36 FTAs compared to 12). Nevertheless, Boston pulled out the win thanks to 18-of-40 shooting from downtown (45.0%) and more steals than turnovers (10-9). The Cavs coughed up 15 turnovers.

Boston will attempt to repeat its same formula used in the Chicago series in Round 1 when it goes for a Game 4 win Tuesday night at Cleveland. This time around, however, Thomas won’t be around to help like he did when the C’s won four in a row over the Bulls after dropping the first two games of the best-of-seven set. Through 15 playoff games, Thomas averaged 23.3 points, 6.7 assists and 3.1 rebounds per game.

As of early Monday night, most betting shops had Cleveland (61-32 SU, 43-46-4 ATS) installed as a 15-point favorite with the total in the 215-216 range. Bettors could take the Celtics to win outright for a 14/1 return at The Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas (risk $100 to win $1,400).

For first-quarter wagers, the Cavs were favored by seven points at most spots. The total was 53. They were 10.5-point home ‘chalk’ for first-half bets, while the total was 104.

VegasInsider.com NBA analyst Chris David offered his thoughts on the total for Tuesday: “Along with everybody else, I was stunned that Cleveland lost Sunday but I wasn’t surprised that its offense cooled off after great performances in Boston. The Cavaliers have been clicking on all cylinders in this year’s playoffs but for whatever reason, Boston’s defense has been better on the road in the postseason and it made the necessary stops in the comeback,” said David.

He continued, “I also believe Cleveland helped the cause with its poor shot selection. Everybody has been chucking more in the playoffs but Sunday’s stat line was ridiculous as 55 percent of their field goal attempts (70) were from 3-point land (39). Even though the Cavaliers have plenty of shooters, they learned the hard way in Game 3 and tried to play keep-up with the Celtics, who were on fire from distance in the win. To put things in perspective, Cleveland was 2-of-17 from 3-point land in the second half after hitting 14-of-22 (63%) from downtown in the first 24 minutes.”

“From a betting perspective, I leaned to Cleveland’s team total ‘under’ (115) in Game 3 and Tuesday’snumber is in the same neighborhood. I would press that wager one more time and I would lean to the game total ‘under’ as well. The Celtics aren’t going to hit 18 triples again and I also don’t believe Cleveland will be screwing around with a double-digit lead. Once the Cavaliers get up, they’ll bleed the clock and prepare for Game 5 in Boston and end this series before they lose more valuable days of rest.”

The ‘over’ is 2-1 in this series so far. All three totals have been at stake on the last possessions of the final minute.

The ‘over’ is 10-6 overall for Boston in the postseason, but the ‘under’ is 5-2 in its seven road assignments. The Celtics have won four of seven road playoff games outright, going 5-2 versus the number.

The ‘over’ has cashed at an 8-3 overall clip for the Cavs in the playoffs, hitting in all five of their home games. They are 4-1 SU and 2-3 ATS at home in the postseason.

As VI’s Kevin Rogers points out here, Cleveland was in this same scenario (up 2-1) against Toronto during last season Eastern Conference finals: “The Celtics have been the epitome of inconsistency in the playoffs by losing the first two games to Chicago in the opening round before winning four straight. Boston failed to win a road game in the second round against Washington, but still advanced. Now, the Celtics erased a 21-point deficit in Game 3 without their best player to extend the series back to TD Garden.

“Since 2010, LeBron James-led teams are 16-4 prior to the NBA Finals off a loss, but there is one nugget to focus on heading into Game 4. In this stretch, James’ squads are 1-2 SU/ATS in Game 4 of a playoff series after losing Game 3 when jumping out to a 2-0 lead. Last season, the Cavaliers lost to the Raptors in both Games 3 and 4 in Toronto after blowouts the first two games. The only win in this situation actually came in overtime at Boston in the 2011 semifinals with Miami as a slight one-point favorite.”

 
Posted : May 23, 2017 10:55 am
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Tuesday's Eastern Conference Game 4 Betting Preview
Covers.com

Boston Celtics at Cleveland Cavaliers (-14.5, 215.5)

The Boston Celtics recorded an improbable victory to get back in the series and now attempt to even it up when they visit the second-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers on Tuesday in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference finals. The Celtics appeared ready to go down meekly after losing star point guard Isaiah Thomas but instead posted a final-second 111-108 victory on Sunday to trim their deficit to 2-1.

Thomas (hip) is done for the postseason, so it was backcourt mate Avery Bradley taking the big shot and delivering the game-winning 3-pointer with 0.1 seconds left to cap a comeback from a 21-point, third-quarter deficit. "We were playing way better. I don't know how to phrase it other than that - we were playing way better," Boston coach Brad Stevens told reporters of the difference between Sunday's win and a 44-point loss in Game 2. "We were getting good shots on offense and playing with great purpose, and on defense I thought we were much better than the score indicated. I think that when you play better, you feel better." The top-seeded Celtics broke the Cavaliers' record-tying 13-game postseason winning streak and limited red-hot forward LeBron James to 11 points, his fourth-lowest output in 210 career playoff games. "I had a tough game, period," James told reporters. "I didn't have it. That's all I've got to say about my performance."

LINE HISTORY: Despite the shocking Game 3 loss, oddsmakers aren't deterred, opening the Cavaliers as 15-point home favorites for Game 4. However, bettors think the Celtics will show up again and the line has already moved down to -14.5. The total hit the board at 216 and has been bet down a half-point to the current number of 215.5.

INJURY REPORT:

Celtics - PF A. Johnson (Questionable Tuesday, shoulder), PG I. Thomas (Out for season, hip).

Cavaliers - No injuries to report.

ABOUT THE CELTICS: Marcus Smart was a nonfactor by averaging five points on 2-of-11 shooting over the first two games but he stepped up with Thomas out and put on a spectacular performance. The third-year guard was 7-of-10 from 3-point range while producing 27 points and seven assists and putting forth his typical feisty effort that grates on opposing players. "Everybody had to step up their game, especially with one of our brothers down," Smart told reporters. "Our love and support goes out to Isaiah. We wish he could be here but we understand. We just kept fighting. Everybody did their part."

ABOUT THE CAVALIERS: James was on a tear with eight consecutive 30-points efforts and was averaging 34.3 points before he basically disappeared in the second half by missing eight of nine shots and finishing 4-of-13 from the field. He was testy after Sunday's game and then avoided reporters on Monday to leave his teammates and coach Tyronn Lue to explain his dreadful performance "No blame," Lue told reporters. "We're all to blame. We lost; it happens. For a guy who played great for five straight months, he's got to have a bad game sooner or later. He's human. He didn't shoot the ball well. It wasn't his ordinary game."

TRENDS:

* Cavaliers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
* Road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Cleveland.
* Over is 21-7 in Cavaliers last 28 games following a SU loss.

 
Posted : May 23, 2017 10:56 am
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Cavaliers look to take 3-1 lead
By: Sam Chase
StatFox.com

The Cavaliers will be looking to rebound from a disastrous Game 3 collapse when they take on the Celtics in Game 4 on Tuesday.

The Boston Celtics pulled off the biggest upset in NBA playoffs history on Sunday night—if you believe Vegas, at least. Boston entered Game 3 of their Eastern Conference Final series against the Cleveland Cavaliers as 17-point underdogs, and trailed by as many as 21 points before mounting a stunning comeback to win 111-108 on the road and cut the Cavs’ series lead to two games to one. There were several factors contributing to Boston’s heavy underdog status. First, there was the very recent evidence that they couldn’t hang with Cleveland: They were embarrassed 130-86 on their home court in Game 2 on Friday night (CLE -5). To make things worst, they lost All-NBA 2nd Team PG Isaiah Thomas for the remainder of the playoffs to a hip injury he suffered in the first half of that game. So coming off a humiliating loss, missing their best player and shooting 24 fewer free throws than their opponents (12 to Cleveland’s 36), Boston managed to outscore the Cavs by 19 points in the second half to pull out a stunning victory. The line for Tuesday night’s Game 4 opened at CLE -15, however, so those at sportsbooks aren’t feeling optimistic about a repeat performance. Since 1996, road teams allowing at least 103 PPG on the season that have trailed each of their last two games by at least 10 points at halftime (BOS) are 116-57 ATS. Over the last five seasons, games involving a road team that allowed at least 105 points in its last game (BOS) and a team coming off a loss of six points or fewer (CLE) are 157-99 Over against totals of at least 200. Thomas is the only player listed on either team’s injury report.

Boston had an unlikely high-scorer on Sunday night, as PG Marcus Smart (8.8 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 4.8 APG, 1.5 SPG, 1.0 BPG; all player stats are for playoffs) started in Thomas’ place and scored 27 points on 8-of-14 shooting, adding seven assists and five rebounds. Remarkably, the 29.1% career three-point shooter made seven of 10 treys, further cementing his reputation as a guy who makes big plays when it counts. The biggest play of the night, however, belonged to SG Avery Bradley (16.2 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 1.4 SPG), whose last-second three-pointer touched seemingly every part of the rim before falling through the hoop with 0.1 seconds remaining, giving the Celtics the win. He assumed the largest bulk of Thomas’ offensive load, scoring 20 points on a team-high 23 shots. Joining those two in the team’s crunch-time lineups were C Al Horford (15.4 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 5.6 APG), SF Jae Crowder (13.5 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 1.2 SPG) and C Kelly Olynyk (8.9 PPG, 3.0 RPG). Crowder and Olynyk were especially strong in Game 3, with Olynyk scoring 15 points on only eight shots and Crowder scoring 14 and grabbing 11 rebounds, six more than any other Celtic. PF Jonas Jerebko (3.1 PPG) served as an unlikely spark plug off the bench, posting an incredible plus/minus of +22 in only 13 minutes on the court. He may have played himself into a starting spot for Game 4, perhaps in the place of lumbering PF Amir Johnson (2.7 PG).

In the first two games of this series, Cleveland SF LeBron James (32.2 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 7.0 APG, 2.2 SPG, 1.5 BPG) looked even more unstoppable than he typically has throughout his decorated career. He made 26 of his 40 shots in those contests, and appeared to be toying with whichever hopeless Boston defender was charged with guarding him on a given possession. With those performances in the books, his disappearance in Game 3 was all the more bewildering. He scored 11 points on 4-of-13 shooting in 45 minutes, and he turned the ball over six times. One has to imagine that he’ll bounce back in Game 4, but it’s impossible to say so for sure when his off night in Game 3 came without explanation. His supporting cast was strong, at least in the starting lineup. PG Kyrie Irving (23.0 PPG, 5.6 APG, 1.5 SPG) was unperturbed by a Boston backcourt that is made better defensively with the absence of Thomas, scoring 29 points on 10-of-15 shooting and handing out seven assists. The third member of Cleveland’s Big Three, PF Kevin Love (17.4 PPG, 9.7 RPG) was also money, hitting five first-quarter threes en route to 28 points, 10 rebounds and three blocks. C Tristan Thompson (9.7 PPG, 9.9 RPG) stepped up with arguably his best game of this postseason, scoring 18 points and pulling down 13 rebounds. He was 3-for-4 from the field and 12-of-15 from the free throw line. SG J.R. Smith (6.8 PPG) hit the boards too with eight rebounds to accompany 13 points; Cleveland outrebounded Boston 53-45 as a team. Cleveland’s bench had only nine points on the night on 3-of-14 shooting.

 
Posted : May 23, 2017 11:42 am
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