Free Picks for Monday, May 22nd, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
CLEVELAND AT CINCINNATI
PLAY: CLEVELAND -110
If you’re wondering about the difference between control and command, Cleveland righty Josh Tomlin might be the perfect illustration. Tomlin’s control has been impeccable. He has 32 K’s while issuing a mere four walks in his 40.2 innings of work. That’s about as good as it gets when it comes to control.
But Tomlin’s command is another story entirely. Yes, he’s throwing strikes, but they’re frequently getting hit and pretty hard to boot. There’s no question some of Tomlin’s misfortune en route to his ugly 2-5, 6.86 ledger is attributable to lousy luck on balls in play. But the fact is Tomlin might be throwing too many strikes for his own good.
Now that I’ve given Tomlin what amounts to a negative review, I’ll reverse field and explain why I’m backing him tonight against the Reds. Actually, I’m not really backing Tomlin, who worries me, but I do want the Indians in this spot.
Cleveland heads into Cincy riding high off a terrific weekend sweep at Houston. That’s in contrast to the Reds, who have hit the skids in a big way. The Reds have now lost eight of their last nine, and the only win was courtesy of a massive comeback on Saturday after fallen behind by five runs to the Rockies. Cincinnati was an early season surprise to some extent, but reality appears to have set in for what is one of the worst rotations in the majors.
Scott Feldman has held his own for the most part this season, but he’ll have his work cut out tonight against a Cleveland team that should be feeling great after the banner weekend at Houston. Tomlin is unreliable to be sure, but the team factors have me sold and I will back the Indians tonight.
Ray Monohan
Warriors vs. Spurs
play: Warriors -12
The Golden State Warriors will try and close out their series on Monday night and I think they have a ton of value in this one. The Warriors have been the dominant team in this series and I don't see that changing in this one. The Spurs are expected to be without David Lee and Kawhi Leonard. With them out along with Tony Parker the Spurs just don't have the talent left to keep up.
I expect Curry and Durant will come out early and get their three pointers to fall early. The Spurs will have no answer and the Warriors will advance to the NBA Finals easily. Some trends to note. Warriors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Spurs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Pacific. Road team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
Scott Spreitzer
Cleveland at Cincinnati
Play: Cleveland -113
Cleveland is fresh off a sweep of the first place Astros and the Indians have won the last six meetings with Cincinnati, including the last four at Great American Ball Park. The Reds snapped a seven-game losing streak coming back from an 8-3 deficit on Saturday, but then returned to their losing ways on Sunday as Colorado beat them 6-4. Cincy is 1-6 in Scott Feldman's last seven starts and it has lost five of its last six games versus right-handed starters. Also, the Reds are 15-36 their last 51 interleague games. The Indians have won 18 of Josh Tomlin's last 24 road starts and although he comes off a rough outing against Tampa Bay, Tomlin had quality starts his previous two appearances allowing two runs in 15 innings. Zack Cosart is the only current Reds player who has had much success versus Tomlin, but he's questionable with a wrist injury.
Art Aronson
Ducks vs. Predators
Play: Ducks +127
This has been a back-and-forth series, but now the pressure is on the Ducks to respond and send this one back home for a decisive Game 7. Anaheim has done well in this spot for bettors already this year though, going 4-1 (+3.1 units) when trailing in a playoff series and 16-6 (+10 units) after scoring one goal or less in its previous outing. And note, as good as Nashville has been at times this year, this has been a position in which it’s struggled, going just 14-17 (-7.6) units after a win by two goals or more. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. The recent trends exhibited by both teams in this position point to the underdog as the savvy move in this contest.
Marc Lawrence
Royals vs. Yankees
Play: Yankees -164
Edges - Yankees: Pineda 2.02 ERA and 0.83 WHIP home this season, and 6-1 with 2.89 ERA and 0.94 WHIP last seven overall teams starts… Royals: Vargas 1-7 last eight team starts versus the Pinstripes, including 0-4 the last four games here… With Kansas City just 3-10 in its last thirteen games in this series, including 1-6 the last seven games here, we recommend a 1* play on the NY Yankees.
Jesse Schule
White Sox vs. Diamondbacks
Play: Diamondbacks -184
Arizona comes into this home series versus the White Sox riding a hot streak, and they are just 1.5 games out of first place in the NL West. I like the D'Backs with their ace on the mound in Game 1.
Zack Greinke (5-2, 3.09 ERA) allowed four runs on five hits, striking out eight over 6 2/3 innings in a home win over the Mets his last time out. He's 4-0 with a 2.82 ERA in six home starts.
The White Sox hand the ball to Miguel Gonzalez, who hasn't missed many bats lately. Gonzalez (3-4, 4.29 ERA) has been rocked for 19 runs on 24 hits while losing four straight starts. He's walked nine batters in just 10 2/3 innings in his last two starts.
Arizona has won 22 of it's last 30 home games, while the Sox are just 2-7 in their last nine on the road.
Dustin Hawkins
Royals vs. Yankees
Play: Yankees -169
Kansas City is 13-33 against the money line in road games vs. AL teams allowing 4.4 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. NY Yankees are 23-12 against the money line in home games vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) over the last 2 seasons. New York is 61-39 against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.The Royals are only 27-48 against the money line in road games against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
Rob Vinciletti
Colorado vs. Philadelphia
Play: Colorado -104
The Rockies have played well this year and they fit a solid road system that pertains to their road dog win yesterday vs an opponent like the Phillies that come in off a 1 run road loss. These road teams have won 90% if favored. The Phillies are 0-3 home off a road loss and have lost 13 of 17 in May. Colorado has Hoffman making another spot start and he was good in his first won striking out 8. Look for Colorado to take the opener.
Jim Feist
Ducks at Predators
Pick: Over
Anaheim is a veteran team with talent and balance. Nashville is finished fourth in its own division while ranked #15 in goals allowed. Anaheim is on a 5-2-3 run over the total and the over is 21-8-11 when these teams clash.
Power Sports
Chicago at Arizona
Pick: Under
Somewhat shocking is the fact the White Sox currently sport the best run differential in their division (AL Central) at +22. Granted, it's not doing much for them as they're in fourth place. Key for them has been allowing the third fewest number of runs in the entire Junior Circuit, trailing only heavyweights Houston and Cleveland. That bodes well for them traveling to a National League park to start the week, even if it's hitter-friendly Chase Field. The Chicago offense, which isn't very prolific any way, should be further subdued by the loss of the DH from the batting order and having to face Zack Greinke. Under would be my recommendation here.
Greinke allowed four runs his last time out, but the team still managed to beat the Mets 5-4. Allowing that many runners to score is highly irregular for Greinke, who comes in w/ a 0.692 WHIP his last three outings. Those four runs were scored on just five hits, so it seems as if some "cluster luck" went against him there. He'd previously turned in five consecutive quality starts, allowiing just eight runs total in 35 IP w/ a 44-4 KW ratio! Bottom line is that I expect Greinke to hold up his "end of the bargain" tonight.
Thus, this Under play seems rather dependant on White Sox starter Miguel Gonzalez holding the Arizona offense in check. Though it was at the far more pitcher friendly Petco Park (in San Diego), the D'backs were held to only five hits yday. Gonzalez has struggled a bit of late, but something to keep in mind is that earlier in the year he twice went 8+ innings while giving up 1 ER or less. Chicago pitching allowed just three runs in its last three games, all wins at Seattle.
Mike Lundin
Indians vs. Reds
Play: Over 9
Over is 14-2 in the Cleveland Indians' last 16 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record and 26-15-2 in the Cincinnati Reds' games overall this season.
Josh Tomlin (2-5, 6.86 ERA) takes the ball for Tribe. He was charged with six runs on seven hits (two homers) over 2 1/3 innings in a loss to Tampa Bay on Wednesday. He is 2-2 with a 4.55 ERA in five career starts against the Reds and over is 5-1-1 in Tomlin's last seven interleague starts.
The Reds hand the ball to Scott Feldman (2-4, 4.29 ERA) who surrendered seven runs on five hits and three walks in just 2 2/3 innings of a 7-5 loss at Wrigley Field his last time out. Feldman has posted a 6.16 ERA in six night starts this season.
Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings at Great American Ballpark and 6-0 in the last six meetings overall.
SPORTS WAGERS
CHICAGO -1½ +103 over San Fran
The Cubbies are coming on again. After a somewhat stagnant start to the year perhaps due to a World Series hangover, Chicago has woke up by scoring seven runs or more in five of its last six games. John Lackey will make this start and he doesn’t need much of an introduction. Surely we're not going to question this old dog, who keeps sniffing out success wherever he goes. He throws strikes, gets whiffs (with additional swing and miss support), and limits baserunners. At some point the snarl will eclipse the stuff, but no signs of that yet. He’s a loyal and reliable old friend that we’re happy get behind here.
The real deal here is fading Ty Blach, who is one of the worst starters in the game. Blach’s horrible skills have been masked because 29 of the 35 innings he’s thrown this year have come at AT&T Park. Elton John could throw a good game at that park. Blach’s 4.15 ERA is by far the most misleading ERA in the game today. His xERA of 8.22 will very likely come out in full force here. Blach has a BB/K split of 10/11 in those 35 innings. His swing and miss rate is 4%. Blach is currently filling in for the injured Madison Bumgarner but given how poor his underlying skills have been, the window to fade him will run out as soon as the Giants get a healthy body back. With Blach’s extreme lack of strikeouts, his only hope is that balls are hit right at people but that’s a big time stretch at Wrigley with favorable hitting conditions. Blach is the type of pitcher that you might think could use more time in the minors, but at 26, he's already logged 328 IP at Triple-A. This stiff is no better than a pitching machine and must be faded.
Detroit (5 innings) +115 over HOUSTON
The Tigers pen is too unreliable to trust under any circumstances so we’ll attempt to take them out of this equation. That leaves us Michael Fulmer for the first five and he’s a rock solid starter to get behind. It’s a very rare day when this AL Rookie of the Year winner last year does not go five full. Fulmer burst onto the scene last year with a 2.25 ERA through his first 19 starts before his strand rate fortune caught up with him but it wasn't all luck. In the 2nd half, Fulmer traded a bit of K’s for control but his swing and miss rate was still good enough to rack up strikeouts. Combine that with his robust groundball rate and he’s a solid investment. This year Fulmer is right back at it with a BB/K split of 13/46 in 53 innings with a 2.72 ERA and 48% groundball rate. Man, you talk about consistency and one need not look further than this under the radar sophomore, who has the EXACT same xERA this year so far (3.44) as he had all of last year.
Brad Peacock will get bet today because he plays for the Astronauts and because of his 2-0 record and 1.10 ERA. While Peacock’s numbers look really appealing both above the surface and below it, it has all come in relief and there is an entirely different mindset between starting and relieving. Brad Peacock has worked 16 innings and has whiffed 22 batters. He’s also walked 10 but ooohhh man, that 18% whiff rate is tasty, particularly because his zone-contact % is just 66%. That’s the fifth lowest in the league and we can’t attribute that to any single pitch. Peacock’s whiff rates on his fastball, changeup, and slider have all jumped but we don’t see anything in his profile that suggests any major changes to his pitch mix, movement, or velocity so we’re not buying into Peacock just yet and probably never will.
Every reliever in baseball is a former starter that could not make it as such. Peacock has been given numerous chances to start but failed each time. He’s been around the major leagues since 2011 and has been riding the shuttle between the minors and majors ever since. Peacock’s career swing and miss rate was 7% prior to the 18% he’s posted this year. Again, there’s a big difference between pitching one inning where you can let it rip for 15-20 pitches and being asked to throw between 80-100 pitches and get to the sixth inning. Peacock has never been able to do the latter consistently and so his role has been relegated to relieving. This is a spot start for him in place of Dallas Keuchel, who will miss one start because of a pinched nerve in his neck. Over his starting career, Peacock has remained healthy but his skills haven’t. His stints at AAA were hardly a step forward. Walks remain an issue and his stagnant strikeout rate was always subpar and his swing and miss rate hints it will stay that way. His career xERA (5.09) and past performances for 280 innings prior to this year override what he’s done in 16 innings of relief this year.
Colorado +107 over PHILADELPHIA
This is a great opportunity to buy the Rockies in an evenly priced game. It’s in the pick-em range because Jared Eickhoff has 49 starts to his career with a very respectable 3.61 ERA while Colorado’s Jeff Hoffman is relatively unknown, having made just one start this year and just six starts last year with poor surface results. We’ll get back to the pitchers in a sec but even if we concede (which we are not) that Eickhoff is the superior pitcher here, Colorado is playing too good with no signs of letting up. The Rocks are 15-7 on the road. They’ve won five of their past seven and had it not been for a blown 7-1 lead against Cinci on Saturday, Colorado would have six wins in its past seven games. Manager Bud Black is handling the pitching staff with precision and has his team playing at a very high level while the Phillies are trending the other way with six losses in their last seven games. The Phillies are frustrated and they’re seeing BB gun pellets at the plate with an OPS of just .294 over their last 10 games, which is third worst in MLB over that span.
Eickhoff was solid in his first full season in MLB last year and with a BB/K split of 18/43 this year in 46 innings, he’s been pretty good this year too but there are reasons for concern. His command looks good on paper, but a weak 52% first-pitch strike rate suggests that good control won't last. Eickhoff had severe issues versus lefties last year and nothing has changed this year. That doesn’t bode well here, as the Rocks will send out four left-handed bats out of the eight everyday players and that does not include right-handed hitters Nolan Arenado, DJ LeMahieu or Mark Reynolds. Eichhoff’s fly-ball rate jumped in the 2nd half last year and has remained there (45%) there this year, thus putting him at risk for HR and at whims of hr/f. Eickhoff is worth keeping an eye on when taking back a decent tag at a pitcher’s park but there is not much upside here yet.
Jeff Hoffman was profiled in our MLB call-ups section. We’ll elaborate a little more. He went 0-4 with a 4.88 ERA in 31 innings for the Rocks last year. Hoffman’s overall control woes and gaudy OPS versus righties tanked his results but there is some intrigue to be sure. First, he has always posted solid strikeout numbers with his diverse arsenal that includes four velocity levels and a plus groundball rate. Velocity alone isn't enough as his fastball lacks command, but there is a strong foundation here. In seven innings over one start and one relief appearance, Hoffman has walked just two while whiffing 10 (!) Those 10 K’s have the support of his 17% swing and miss rate and now he’ll face a team that is gripping their bats a little too tightly. The general public will see Hoffman’s 5.40 ERA and not show much interest in Hoffman or the Rocks and what will be perceived as a tough game to call but we’ve pointed out Hoffman’s high ceiling and outstanding skills and will instantly jump in at this reduced price. You should too.
Scott Rickenbach
Pirates vs. Braves
Play: Pirates -121
The Pirates have Gerrit Cole on the mound today and Pittsburgh is a PERFECT 5-0 in his 5 careers starts against the Braves as he's compiled a strong 2.25 ERA in those 5 outings. The Braves will have Mike Foltynewicz on the mound this evening and he is 0-3 in his 3 career starts against the Bucs and he has compiled an ugly 8.25 ERA in those outings. I know that the Braves have been playing better of late but so too have the Pirates. That said, there is great line value here with Pittsburgh as a small road favorite and having a significant pitching edge in terms of the match-up. Foltynewicz is a strong starter for the Braves but he doesn't match up well with the Pirates while Cole has truly "owned" Atlanta. Cole also has a 1.71 ERA in his last 3 starts combined while Foltynewicz has a 6.19 ERA in his last 3 starts and a 6.35 ERA in home starts this season. Atlanta is 7-15 this season when off of a loss and I expect another loss tonight to add to that record.
Brandon Lee
Los Angeles at Tampa Bay
Play: Los Angeles +105
Los Angeles is worth a look here. The Angels were able to avoid getting swept by taking the finale against the Mets 12-5 on Sunday and are a solid 5-2 over their last 7 overall. It was the exact opposite for the Rays, who failed to complete a 3-game sweep against rival New York in a gut-wrenching 2-3 loss. I look for LA to carry over that momentum here, while I wouldn't be surprised to see Tampa Bay come out a bit flat here. With the way Trout is swinging the bat for the Angels and what I see as a pretty even pitching matchup here with J.C. Ramirez going up against Jake Odorizzi, I'll gladly take the + side of this one.