NBA betting trends, odds and predictions for Monday, May 22nd, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
NBA Knowledge
Golden State is 11-0 (7-4 vs spread) in playoffs, 5-0 on road (5-0 vs spread) with four of five road wins by 11+ points. Leonard is out here, so are Parker/Lee; Spurs led by 23 when Leonard went out in Game 1, have been outscored by 73 points in 9.5 quarters since then. Warriors are 3-3 in last five visits to San Antonio; five of last six series games went over the total. Underdogs are 4-3 vs spread in last seven series games. Seven of Warriors’ last eight wins were by 11+ points- over is 7-2 in their last nine games overall. Over is 9-2 in Spurs’ last eleven games.
Armadillosports.com
NBA Western Conference Finals Game 4 Betting Preview
Covers.com
Golden State Warriors at San Antonio Spurs (+11.5, 216)
The Golden State Warriors seem to be on a collision course with the Cleveland Cavaliers in the NBA Finals, and the San Antonio Spurs are struggling to get into the fight. The Warriors can close out the Spurs, clinch a third straight trip to the NBA Finals and move to 12-0 in the postseason when they visit San Antonio for Game 4 on Monday.
The Spurs put up a better effort at home in Game 3 than they managed in Game 2, but the absence of Kawhi Leonard left them without a go-to scorer to combat Golden State's runs in the 120-108 setback. "You have to give everything you have for the next one," San Antonio guard Manu Ginobili, who scored 21 points off the bench in Game 3, told reporters. "For us to win, we have to play at a 10 level, and (the Warriors) have to play at a seven. And we have to make them play a seven and play our best game." Golden State played at a 10 for most of the last two games but isn't taking anything for granted against a proud Spurs squad. "Nah, it's not inevitable," Warriors forward Draymond Green told reporters. "We've lost a lead before, so we've got to come out on Monday and try to close this thing out."
LINE HISTORY: With Leonord unlikely to play in Game 4, oddsmakers opened the Spurs as hefty 11-point home underdogs and bettors have pushed the line to Spurs +11.5. The total opened at 216.5 and has been bet down slightly to 216. Check out the complete line history here.
WHAT SHARPS SAY: "As we learned last night with Cavs-Celtics, sometimes it is wrong to prematurely write off an underdog's chances. But down Kawhi Leonard and Tony Parker, the Spurs definitely seem 'up against it' for Game 4. I'm more interested in the total as each of the first three games have gone Over. " - Covers Expert Power Sports.
INJURY REPORT:
Warriors - PG S. Curry (Probable Monday, elbow), SG A. Iguodala (Probable Monday, knee), C Z. Pachulia (Questionable Monday, heel), SF K. Looney (Out indefinitely, hip).
Spurs - SF K. Leonard (Doubtful Monday, ankle), PF D. Lee (Out Monday, knee), PG T. Parker (Out for season, quadricep).
ABOUT THE WARRIORS: Kevin Durant took control of Game 3 with 19 of his 33 points in the third quarter and went 11-of-19 from the floor in the contest to mark his fifth straight postseason game shooting 50 percent or better. "The third quarter, I just went out there and played, not worrying about anything," Durant told reporters. "Just played every possession, tried to play hard as I can, and I was able to score." Durant isn't the only Warriors player not having much trouble scoring, as fellow former MVP Stephen Curry is averaging 30 points on 55.6 percent shooting in the first three games of the series.
ABOUT THE SPURS: San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich called it "likely" that Leonard will miss Game 4, and forward David Lee is likely to sit as well after suffering a reported partial tear of his left patella tendon. The shorthanded Spurs will continue to lean on the likes of 39-year-old Ginobili and second-year guard Jonathan Simmons, who is starting in place of Leonard. "The competitiveness was great," Popovich told reporters of his club after Game 3. "Every time you look up, you're playing against four All-Stars, so you better be pretty perfect, and competitiveness-wise, I couldn't ask for anything more. We turned it over too much, and we've got to make some more shots. But it's a helluva team."
TRENDS:
* Warriors are 10-0 in their last 10 road games.
* Spurs are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. Pacific Division opponents.
* Over is 6-1 in Warriors last seven road games.
* Over is 5-0 in Spurs last five home games.
Consensus: The public actually is giving the Spurs the slight edge here and they love the Over.
Warriors, Spurs meet in Game 4
By: Sam Chase
StatFox.com
The Warriors will be going for a sweep when they face the Spurs in Game 4 on Monday.
The Western Conference playoffs may mercifully be coming to an end on Monday night, as the Golden State Warriors will look to complete their sweep of the West with a Game 4 victory in San Antonio. The Warriors are 11-0 in these playoffs (7-4 ATS) and up 3-0 on the Spurs (2-1 ATS) after a 120-108 triumph in Game 3 on Saturday night (GSW -9). It was certainly a closer contest than the 136-100 slaughter on display in Game 2 (GSW -13.5), but Golden State was clearly in control down the stretch. And while many considered a sweep a possibility entering this series, it has looked closer to a certainty since Spurs SF Kawhi Leonard suffered an injury in the second half of Game 1. He is questionable for Game 4, and PF David Lee is expected to miss the game. PG Tony Parker is out for the playoffs after a quad injury he sustained in the second round against Houston. Over the last five years, teams coming off two consecutive covers as favorites (GSW) are 30-60 ATS against opponents coming off a home loss of 10 points or more. On the other hand, road favorites that have scored at least 105 points in three straight games (GSW) are 298-210 ATS since 1996. For the Warriors, PG Stephen Curry is probable to play and C Zaza Pachulia is questionable.
Warriors SF Kevin Durant (24.8 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 3.7 APG, 1.2 BPG; all player stats are for playoffs) was the star of the show in Game 3, showcasing the ruthless efficiency with which he’s played all season in scoring 33 points on 11-of-19 shooting, and adding 10 rebounds, four assists and two steals in a game-high 38 minutes. He was also strong in the Warriors’ Game 1 win with 34 points on 21 shots. Without Leonard to guard him, he has an awful lot of room to do what he wants against this Spurs team. PG Stephen Curry (27.9 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 5.5 APG, 2.1 SPG) had 21 points on 15 shots, and was incredibly disruptive on defense with six steals. Despite shooting less often than last postseason (17.9 FGA from 18.8 ), Curry is shooting better (49.2 FG% from 43.8%) and scoring more (27.9 PPG from 25.1). No one really knows how Curry feels about sharing the spotlight with Durant, but it has made him a more effective player in these playoffs. SG Klay Thompson (14.8 PPG) scored 17, his most of the series thus far. He is shooting only 39.6% from the field this postseason. If there were an award for best defensive player of the playoffs, PF Draymond Green (13.7 PPG, 8.7 RPG, 7.1 APG, 1.9 SPG, 2.3 BPG) would be the winner in a landslide. C JaVale McGee (7.5 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 1.1 BPG) somehow scored 16 points in only 13 minutes in Game 3.
The Spurs are +21 with Leonard (27.7 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 4.6 APG, 1.7 SPG) on the floor in this series, which represents the first half and a bit of the third quarter of Game 1, before he was injured. Without him on the floor, the Spurs would appear unlikely to be able to compete—he’s easily their best player on either end. The necessity of his presence is especially the case if PF LaMarcus Aldridge (17.1 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 1.1 BPG) is unable to step up. He had 18 points on 17 shots, but only five rebounds and a -27 plus/minus that was a game-worst by seven points. He also allowed a team-worst 18 points as a primary defender. SG Jonathon Simmons (10.4 PPG) scored 14 points in Game 3 on Aldridge’s same 7-of-17 shooting line. He was 0-for-4 from three, and the Spurs as a team were 5-for-21. In a game where the Spurs trailed by single digits at a couple points in the fourth quarter, a better shooting night could have made the difference. No other Spurs starter scored in double digits. SG Manu Ginobili (6.1 PPG) somehow continues to play at a high level, as he scored 21 points on 7-of-9 shooting in G3. C Pau Gasol (7.3 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 1.0 BPG) and PG Dejounte Murray (5.4 PPG, 1.1 SPG) scored 12 and 10 points, respectively. Gasol had 10 boards, as well.