Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Sunday, May 21st, 2017

DAVE COKIN

CELTICS AT CAVALIERS
CAVALIERS -16

The Celtics have appeared mentally beaten in the first two games of this series. I don’t see how that changes as they head to Cleveland for the next two games. Not only is Boston unlikely to honestly believe they have have a chance here, they will now have to operate without their best player.

Cleveland can name the score here. That’s obviously in the betting line, as the oddsmakers are making it very expensive to play the Cavs here. Nevertheless, I’m not sure there’s anything left in the Boston tank at this point. We might see the wounded warrior mentality for a handful of minutes, but if Cleveland starts fast again this is likely another romp. The only way I can play is Cavaliers minus the points.

Scott Rickenbach

Celtics vs. Cavaliers
Play: Celtics +16½

This line made a big jump because of Isaiah Thomas now being out. I'll step in and take advantage as it is highly unlikely that the Celtics have another horrific shooting effort as they shot just 37.2% from the field in Game 2. I know the trending has been for blowouts in both the East and the West so far in these disappointing NBA conference finals. However, the result is that the odds makers are really having to now over-adjust and I just don't see the Celtics getting completely killed here after being thoroughly embarrassed on their home floor Friday in a horrific 130-86 shellacking. The last 11 times that the Cavs have held a team under 100 points, they have covered their next contest just twice in 11 games! As for the Celtics, they are 10-5 ATS this season when off of a loss by 10 points or more and, after getting completely annihilated Friday on their home floor, look for the road team to respond in this one. Take advantage of the bigger number here as the spread move has helped add great value in Game 3. Others will fill in as Thomas now sits out.

Mike Lundin

Blue Jays vs. Orioles
Play: Blue Jays +117

The Toronto Blue Jays have lost five of their last six games following Saturday's 7-5 defeat here at Camden Yards. I think they'll the deny the Baltimore Orioles to sweep the series though as they send Marco Estrada (2-2, 3.60 ERA) to the mound. Estrada was tagged with five runs in six innings by Atlanta his last start, but he has limited the Orioles to only two runs in 13 innings in two starts this eeason to improve to a 4-1 career record behind a 2.84 ERA.

The Orioles turn to Wade Miley (1-1, 3.02 ERA) who was charged with four runs on eight hits and four walks with a pair of homers through just five innings at Detroit his last time out. Miley is 2-4 with a 5.40 ERA in seven career starts against Toronto.

The Blue Jays are 4-0 in their last four Sunday games and 9-2 in Estrada's last 11 Sunday starts.

Stephen Nover

Giants vs. Cardinals
Play: Over 8½

A few years ago a pitching matchup of Matt Cain versus Adam Wainwright might have brought a total of 7. Now it's more than a run higher - and it's still too short. Cain can't pitch away from spacious AT&T Park while Wainwright appears close to being finished. The Cardinals have a healthy outfield now and midle infield power. Cain's road ERA is 7.32 compared to 1.19 at home. Cain has a daytime ERA of 5.79 and a horrible history against the Cardinals when pitching at Busch Stadium with a 7.62 ERA there. The over has cashed 72 percent of the time during Cain's last 27 road starts. Cain also just threw a season-high 112 pitches during his last start this past Monday. That was 20 more pitches than his previous high this year. Wainwright is struggling with a 5.31 ERA and 1.75 WHIP. He's been wild and not working deep into games anymore. That's a real problem for St. Louis considering its bullpen situation. The Giants have scored nine runs, eight earned, against St. Louis relievers in capturing the first two games of the series. Cardinals closer Seung Hwan Oh is solid, but hasn't been nearly as good as last season. The bridge to getting Oh is very vulnerable. Trevor Rosenthal and Kevin Siegrist are battling physical woes. They might not be available. Brett Cecil has been a huge disappointment. The Cardinals have been a strong over team going above the total in 19 of their last 26 games. The weather forecast is for winds blowing out to right at 10-13 mph.

Jim Feist

Senators vs. Penguins
Play: Senators +170

Ottawa has played the defending champs even in the series, even stealing a win here in Pittsburgh. The Senators are 6-2 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game. Pittsburgh's already battered defense took another blow late in the first period the last game when Bobby Ryan hit Chad Ruhwedel. The Penguins are 0-4 in following a win, plus 1-4 in their last 5 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game.

Marc Lawrence

Blue Jays vs. Orioles
Play: Blue Jays +119

Edges - Blue Jays: Estrada 3.60 ERA and 1.18 WHIP this season… Orioles: host in Miley starts 2-6 this season; and Miley with 8 Ks and 8 BBs last three starts. With Estrada in strong KW form with 34 Ks and 6 BBs his last five starts, we recommend a 1* play on Toronto.

Dustin Hawkins

Yankees vs. Rays
Play: Rays -135

Tampa Bay is 11-5 against the money line vs. good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game this season. The Rays are 3-1 against NY Yankees this season. Joe Girardi is 41-51 against the money line in road games when playing with a day off as the manager of NY Yankees.

Brandon Shively

Arizona vs. San Diego
Pick: Arizona

The San Diego Padres are a terrible baseball team. Anytime I get a chance to fade them at nearly even money with a team that is at least decent, I'll have to take a long look. Arizona's Zack Godley is throwing the ball better than he has at any time in his career. He is inducing a lot more weak contact this year and his strikeout rate is very good.

San Diego's Clayton Richard started the season well, but he's trended in the wrong direction. The Diamondbacks have crushed the Padres in the first two games of this series. This is too cheap of a price to pass on.

Tennis Insiders

Alexander Zverev v Novak Djokovic
Pick: Under 21 Games

Novak Djokovic has gained a foothold on the clay and is playing his best tennis of 2017. Four straight sets wins in Rome, beating Bedene, Bautista Agut, Del Potro before dismantling Thiem 6-1/6-0 on Saturday evening. "It's amazing to feel this way on the court again". Djokovic takes on youngster Alexander Zverev in the final on Sunday, the German taking part in his first Masters 1000 final and nerves will prove difficult to overcome. He's played a lot of tennis over the past 3 weeks, winner in Munich, quarters in Madrid & now finalist in Rome. Should Djokovic repeat Saturdays performance he'll have few problems, his point construction has been fantastic all week and Zverev's natural court position is to sit deep behind the baseline, a bad recipe when taking on a such a brilliant baseliner. Zverev looks primed for a letdown and this should be a routine 6-4/6-4 win for Novak.

Scott Rickenbach

New York @ Tampa Bay
Play: New York

The Yankees are looking to avoid the sweep and I expect a big start from veteran southpaw hurler C.C. Sabathia to help them in that regard. The Rays are only 5-9 against left-handed starters this season. This shouldn’t come as a big surprise when you consider that Tampa Bay is only hitting a paltry .220 (with a poor .354 slugging percentage) against lefties this season. As for the Yankees, they are the #1 hitting team in the American League against right-handed pitching this season. The Yanks are hitting .278 with a solid .470 slugging percentage versus righties this season. They’ll be facing the Rays Chris Archer and he struggled to find the plate and allowed 6 earned runs in 5 innings in his most recent start. As for Sabathia, he pitched 6 and 2/3 scoreless innings in his most recent outing and the Yankees are 6-2 in his starts this season. Good underdog value here considering the lefty/righty dichotomy of these teams and New York’s hunger to avoid a sweep at the hands of a division rival.

Alex Smart

Blue Jays vs. Orioles
Play: Over 8½

The Blue Jays look sub par so far this season, but they have still averaged 4.5 rpg in offense when on the road , and on a slight upward production trend. Today they face a Baltimire starter in Miley who is in a downward spiral at the moment as is evident by a 5.06 ERA in his L/3 trips to the hill along with a nasty looking .2.249 WHIP. Meanwhile, Baltimore despite of being highly inconsistent, has produced 4.8 rpg vs righty starters this season and should get some decent run output vs Jays starter Estrada who has crashed of late registering a 6.00 ERA on his L/3 starts ( allowing five runs in two of his last three trips to the hill)

Over is 10-3 in Estradas last 13 starts following a team loss in their previous game.Over is 7-3-1 in Blue Jays last 11 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Over is 9-1 in Blue Jays last 10 on natural surface. Over is 4-1 in Estradas last 5 starts overall.Over is 4-1 in Mileys last 5 starts vs. American League East. Over is 5-2-1 in Orioles last 8 during game 3 of a series.

Brandon Lee

Diamondbacks vs. Padres
Play: Diamondbacks -118

Absolutely love this price on Arizona as a short road favorite against the Padres. The Diamondbacks will send out Zack Goldey, who has been sensational in his first 3 starts of 2017. Godley has a mere 1.93 ERA and 0.964 WHIP in just under 19 innings of work. He will be facing a Padres offense that has scored 2 or fewer runs in 5 straight games. On the flip side we have a red-hot Arizona offense facing the struggling Clayton Richard, who has a 6.00 ERA over his last 3 starts and is 1-3 with a 6.08 ERA in 4 home starts this season.

Jimmy Boyd

Rockies vs. Reds
Play: Reds -105

I cashed in on the Reds with a premium pick yesterday and I like the value here again with Cincinnati at basically a pick'em at home. The Reds are playing better than expected and are now 7-2 over their last 9 home games. Cincinnati won yesterday's game 12-8 and have gone 7-3 in their last 10 after scoring 5 or more runs.

The Reds will send out veteran Bronson Arroyo, who is a crafty 40-year-old that's pitched well at home, where he's 3-1 with a very solid 1.030 WHIP in 4 starts. I think he's going to throw off these Rockies hitters, while Cincinnati's bats take aim at Kyle Freeland, who has had some serious control problems of late, walking 8 over his last 12 innings of work.

Teddy Davis

Yankees vs. Rays
Play: Rays -1½

I cashed yesterday on the Rays with a premium play and will back them again here. Yes, CC pitched well his last game, but I'm not buying into it. He is bound to have a few good games can he back them up against a Rays team that has won 4 straight and 5 of 6?

Archer is obviously the Rays ace here and I believe they sweep the Yankees in fashion today. Archer has pitched extremely well at home with a 2.94 ERA and a 2-0 record. He also has an impressive ERA for his career against the Yankees with a 2.63