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Free Picks: Free Service Plays for Saturday, May 20th, 2017

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Free Picks for Saturday, May 20th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers

 
Posted : May 20, 2017 8:04 am
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DAVE COKIN

DIAMONDBACKS AT PADRES
PLAY: PADRES FIRST 5

Figure on this line being in the even money neighborhood, perhaps Padres -105. I’m basing this virtually exclusively on the starting pitchers. Robbie Ray gets the call for the Snakes, while Luis Perdomo is on the mound for the Friars.

Ray is a mess. The Arizona lefty can make hitters look ridiculous at times with his array of swing and miss stuff. But Ray is also his own worst enemy with his horrendous control. Walk rates in excess of five per nine innings are bad news. Plus, while Ray is going to rack up the K’s, when contact gets made, it’s hard contact far too frequently. Ray has an absurdly high 50.5% hard hit rate, which is the worst of any big league starter, and that’s by a wide margin.

Perdomo is almost the polar opposite of Ray as far as the batted balls are concerned. The San Diego righty has a phenomenal 70% ground ball rate, and a very impressive 23% hard hit rate. Perdomo also owns a very solid BB/K ratio. he still hasn’t been able to win a decision, but that’s not really Perdomo’s fault.

San Diego is hopelessly inept against lefties, so there’s the red flag involved with this play. But as long as Ray remains apparently committed to trying to strike everyone out, it might not take much for the home team to put a few runs on the board early in this game.

I don’t want any part of the bullpen battle, as that clearly favors the Diamondbacks. So I’m going to make my play on the first five innings option and I’ll support Perdomo and the Padres this time.

 
Posted : May 20, 2017 8:04 am
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Jim Feist

Predators vs. Ducks
Play: Over 5

Anaheim is a veteran team with talent and balance. Nashville is finished fourth in its own division while ranked #15 in goals allowed. Anaheim is on a 5-2-2 run over the total and the over is 21-8-10 when these teams clash, including 16-5-5 over at Anaheim.

 
Posted : May 20, 2017 8:05 am
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Scott Spreitzer

Colorado at Cincinnati
Play: Colorado +113

Bud Black is an early candidate for NL Manager of the Year as he has the Rockies winning at home and on the road, which historically has not often been the case. Colorado won 12-6 on Friday to improve to 14-6 away from home while Cincinnati lost its seventh in a row. The Rockies have won seven of Antonio Senzatela's eight starts, including 9-6 against the Dodgers on Sunday when the right-hander didn't have his best stuff, but was able to get through five innings to get the win. Senzatela has a 2.50 ERA in 18 innings on the road with opponents batting just .234 against him. Tim Adleman will make his fourth start of the year after lasting only one inning his last time out due to a neck injury. Adleman is 2-2 with a 5.27 ERA after allowing four runs (three earned) in that one inning against the Giants.

 
Posted : May 20, 2017 8:06 am
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Art Aronson

Predators vs. Ducks
Play: Over 5

This has been a very even series and it enters Game 5 all knotted up at two games apiece. Every game has been decided by a single goal except for the Ducks’ 5-3 win in Game 2. Two have gone to overtime. So far the O/U is 1-1-2. We think the overall situation lends itself to a higher-scoring affair in Game 5 though. The Predators looked pretty inept for most of Game 4 except for the final eight minutes. Clearly they’ll be out to set the tone early tonight. The Ducks haven’t been great defensively in the playoffs, but they’ve been exceptional on the offensive end, ranked No. 1 overall. Also note that Nashville has seen the total go OVER the number in 11 of 16 this year in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent, while Anaheim has seen the total go OVER the number in 14 of 24 home games when the total is set at 5 or less. We’re recommending a play on the OVER in Game 5, but what do you think? Shootout or goaltenders battle?

 
Posted : May 20, 2017 8:06 am
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Marc Lawrence

Texas vs. Detroit
Play:Texas +145

Edges - Rangers: Griffin 6-0 team starts this season; and 8-1 last nine May team starts, including 5-0 the last five; and 2-0 last two starts in this park… Tigers: Verlander 0-3 last three home team starts in this series… With Griffin sporting a 1.38 ERA and a 0.73 WHIP away, as opposed to an 8.64 ERA and 1.92 WHIP at home this season, we recommend a 1* play on Texas.

 
Posted : May 20, 2017 8:07 am
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Dustin Hawkins

Diamondbacks vs. Padres
Play: Diamondbacks -111

Arizona is 25-11 against the money line vs. a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities over the last 2 seasons, they are also 13-4 against the money line in road games vs. NL teams scoring 4 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.

 
Posted : May 20, 2017 8:08 am
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Rob Vinciletti

Los Angeles vs. New York
Play: Under 8

This game fits a solid totals system hat has played under 14 of 16 times since 2004. The Mets are 4-0 under as a home favorite off a home win scoring 4 or less runs if the total is 7.5 or more. LA is 5 of 6 under on the road off a road loss and scored 2 or less runs. They hit just .221 on the road. The Mets hit .213 at home. Wheeler has looked good with a 1.62 Era in his last 3 starts.

 
Posted : May 20, 2017 8:08 am
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Brandon Shively

Toronto vs. Baltimore
Pick: Baltimore

The Toronto Blue Jays are still very short-handed on offense. Baltimore has been a tremendous home team in the last few years under Buck Showalter.

Kevin Gausman hasn't pitched well to this point in the season, but I believe he'll get much better. His stuff is tremendous and he has some great numbers in his career when pitching at home. This looks like a good game for him to get on track.

Mike Bolsinger is a guy I'm low on, and the Orioles offense is very capable of hitting home runs. Bolsinger is known for giving up a lot of deep flies.

 
Posted : May 20, 2017 8:09 am
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Big Al

Toronto vs. Baltimore
Pick: Baltimore

The Orioles got off to a torrid start to this season, going 21-9 in their first 30 games. But they've cooled off lately, thanks in large part to the loss of the game's best closer from last season, LH Zach Britton, who could be gone until after the break. The O's just returned from a very rough road trip, getting swept by the Royals in Kansas City, and then losing two of three in Detroit. A return to Camden Yards should do this team good as Baltimore is 13-3 at home this season heading into Friday. There were some pretty high expectations for RH starters Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman this season, and while Bundy has for the most part lived up to his billing, Gausman has struggled through most of the first 1/4 of the season. But one team he's had success against so far is Toronto. In two starts against the Jays in April, Gausman went 1-0 with a 2.38 ERA in 11 1/3 innings (Baltimore won both of those). Toronto's offense is pretty depleted right now with Troy Tulowitzki, Russell Martin, and Josh Donaldson all out with injuries. The O's are 10-2 in Gausman's last 12 home starts and 7-1 in his last eight home starts vs. teams with a losing record.

 
Posted : May 20, 2017 8:10 am
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SPORTS WAGERS

CINCINNATI -1½ +163 over Colorado

The line here (Cincinnati -125) jumped out at us right away because Colorado’s starter, Antonio Senzatela comes in with a 3.31 ERA after starting five times at Coors Field in his first eight starts while Tim Adleman comes in with a 5.27 ERA after five starts. Furthermore, the Rocks own the MLB’s best road record while the Reds own a seven-game losing streak. Based on all of the above, it’s hard not to buy up the Rocks but a deep look under the hood says otherwise. Also, yesterday we pointed out that the Rocks were in a unfavorable situational spot with a lengthy rain delay on Wednesday, followed by a doubleheader on Thursday and traveling from Minnesota to Cincinnati prior to the start of this game. Fatigue did not set in yesterday but there’s a great chance of it setting in for this matinee affair. We’re not counting on that though.

We’re counting on Senzatela to blow up because there are lots of reasons not to buy into Senzatela's early ERA success. He's been helped a lot by hit% and strand% luck and even a 10% hr/f is slightly below normal. A 54% first-pitch strike rate is not typically enough to support just 14 walks in 49 innings. More walks per nine are on the way. Senzatela’s strikeout rate this year and in his minor league career reveals a pitcher who is struggling to strike out batters as he moves up the ladder. He has just 29 K’s in 49 innings and his low 6% swing and miss rate confirms he's not missing many bats. Obviously, eight starts is not enough to draw any conclusions about Senzatela's long-term potential but for 2017, there's reason to be skeptical. He missed a big chunk of 2016 with shoulder soreness and is making the leap from Double-A to the majors. Regression is inevitable here because Senzatela is not MLB-ready and should be back in the minors real soon. His surface starts are a complete mirage while his xERA of 5.66 is not.

Tim Adleman’s surface starts are also in for a correction but his will be to the good. Adleman has a weak looking 5.27 ERA after the first six weeks of the season. That said, there is some life to his skills and they have been backed by a strong 11.3% swing and miss rate and decent 62% first-pitch strike rate. An inflated 20% hr/f and low 68% strand rate has been the real reason for his high ERA. Adleman has a nice 8/26 BB/K split in 27 frames. His groundball rate is only 40% but it was 57% in his last start and 46% in the start prior so that’s trending the right way also. While the lack of dominating stuff, his age (29), no pedigree and not a lot of success at this level prior all conspire against Adleman, tuck away his strikeout and good control and watch closely. There might be some money worth spending here and this line strongly suggests just that.

BALTIMORE -1½ +135 over Toronto

There are a few starters in this league that we are going to fade every time out because there figures to be nothing but profit in doing so. Mike Bolsinger is one of those guys. The Blue Jays got 152 starts from their top five starting pitchers in 2016 and midseason acquisition Francisco Liriano picked up eight more, so the concept of a sixth starter was foreign to the Jays prior to the start of this year. Enter Mat Latos, who auditioned for a swing starter/long relief role along with other recent additions Michael Bolsinger, Lucas Harrell, and Brett Oberholzer. Latos last returned positive value in 2014 and after three disaster starts with the Jays this year he was sent down and may never be heard from again. As for the other three competitors, only Obertholzer's 4.49 ERA in 2016 (and none of the three's WHIPs) beat Latos' showing. The point here is that Mat Latos beat out Mike Bolsinger for a spot in the rotation when one opened up. That’s how bad Bolsinger is. Bolsinger’s control is awful with six walks in 10 innings and his fastball tops off at 88.9 MPH. Bolsinger is pitching at this level not because he’s serviceable but because the Blue Jays need bodies right now and Bolsinger gets the call by process of elimination.

Kevin Gausman still carries solid breakout potential given the growth he showed last year and his excellent raw stuff. However, his 7.19 ERA and 1.86 WHIP has Gausman’s price deflated here. Gausman’s skills have not been good but it's too early to give up on him with that breakout potential. Some minor tweaks are needed or he’s holding back an injury but we assure you he’s better than this. If Gausman gets blown up here, Buck Showalter will get him out quickly but there’s also a really good chance of him throwing a gem while there is no chance of Bolsinger throwing a gem. The Bolsinger fade continues.

 
Posted : May 20, 2017 9:59 am
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Buster Sports

New York at Tampa Bay
Play: Tampa Bay +115

The Yankees and Rays continue their 3 game series on Saturday and the Rays look to give the Yankees their 3rd loss in a row after beating the Yankees 5-4 last night. The starting pitchers for this afternoon's game are for the Yankees RH Masahiro Tanaka (5-2, 5.80 ERA) and he goes up against the Rays RH Matt Andriese (3-1, 3.18 ERA) On opening day Tanaka came to Tampa Bay and got torched for 7 runs in 2 2/3 innings. Tanaka has been just terrible of late as his 9.00 ERA would suggest over his last 3 starts. As for Andriese he pitched well his last start against the Yankees allowing only 1 run over 6 innings. We are getting some nice value with a real live dog here tonight and we will be more than happy to take the plus money.

 
Posted : May 20, 2017 10:01 am
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Mike Rose

Indians at Astros
Play: Over 9

Mike Fiers likes to serve up home runs doing so 16 times in his 36 innings of work. That equates to one just about every 2.1 innings. The Tribe took Astros pitching deep three separate times last night, so I can’t help but think Carlos Santana and his mates will be reaching the cheap seats a few more times this evening. The over has cashed at a 4-2-1 clip with Fiers on the bump, and its 3-0-1 the L/4 times Cleveland took its hacks against a righty. Clevinger owns a tidy 2.61 ERA and 1.26 WHIP since being inserted into the rotation in relief of Kluber, but both of his starts came against the weak hitting Twins and Royals. Houston is an entirely different animal, and with the Astros being held to just five hits last night, I think Clevinger is in for a rude awakening in this one.

 
Posted : May 20, 2017 10:02 am
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Carmine Bianco

Bastia CA at Marseille
Play: Marseille -1.5

Saturday's Free Play is on Marseille as the Ligue 1 season comes to an end but still much at stake for Marseille who'll need a win to hold onto the final Europa League spot and they've been one of the best L1 sides at home (top 4) and have outscored opponents by a 32-13 margin. Against a Bastia side heading down to L2 next season in all likelihood, they should get the win here.

 
Posted : May 20, 2017 10:04 am
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Harry Bondi

PITTSBURGH (-125) over Philadelphia

We cashed a winning ticket on the Pirates and Ivan Nova in his last start and we’ll go back to well here today. Nova has been one of the lone bright spots for the Pirates this season, posting a 2.48 ERA overall and an even better 1.89 ERA at home. Easy to fade the Phillies at this price as the team is on a 4-12 slide and over the last three years have been horrible on the road, going 67-118, including seven wins in 23 tries this season.

 
Posted : May 20, 2017 10:04 am
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