NBA betting trends, odds and predictions for Saturday, May 20th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
NBA Knowledge
Golden State is 10-0 (6-4 vs spread) in playoffs, 4-0 on road (4-0 vs spread) with three of four road wins by 11+ points. Leonard didn’t practice Friday, is ?able here; Spurs led by 23 when he went out in Game 1, have been outscored by 61 points in 5.5 quarters since then. Warriors are 2-3 in last five visits to San Antonio; four of last five series games went over the total. Underdogs are 4-2 vs spread in last six series games. Six of Warriors’ last seven wins were by 11+ points- over is 6-2 in their last eight games overall. Over is 8-2 in Spurs last ten games.
Armadillosports.com
Game 3 - Warriors at Spurs
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com
Golden State at San Antonio
The battle of attrition sometimes gets overlooked but it’s a key factor in all sports and it’s played a major role in this year’s NBA Playoffs, especially in the Western Conference Finals.
After losing All-Star Kawhi Leonard in the second-half of Game 1 to an ankle injury, the Spurs have been outscored 194-133 by the Warriors and now face a 2-0 deficit in the series.
San Antonio dropped a 113-111 decision in Game 1 last Sunday and it surrendered a 23-point lead when Leonard left the game in the third quarter. In Game 2 this past Tuesday, the Warriors captured a 136-100 victory and the contest was all but over after the first quarter as they built a 33-16 lead. Golden State extended the lead to 72-44 at halftime and for good measure, dropped another 64 points on the Spurs in the final 24 minutes. Including the second-half of Game 1, the Warriors have averaged 34.5 points per game in the last six quarters versus the Spurs.
The Warriors shot 56 percent from the field in Game 2 and finished with the same number of 3-pointers (18-of-37) and free throws (18-of-19). The Spurs couldn’t buy a shot (37%) and the lone bright spot was Jonathon Simmons, who finished with 22 points in the blowout. San Antonio’s No. 2 option LaMarcus Aldridge was a no-show on Tuesday and managed to score just eight points after posting 28 in the opener of the series.
If there is a silver lining for the Spurs, they will have three days off between Game 2 and 3 to reorganize and more importantly get healthy. VegasInsider.com NBA handicapper and contributor Tony Mejia talks about the latter.
He said, “Realistically, the Spurs can only beat Golden State if Kawhi Leonard can get back and contribute at a high level, which it sounds like he's working toward after being taken out with another ankle injury last weekend. Zaza Pachulia closed out illegally, whether you want to call it dirty or not, but karma isn't going to defeat the Warriors. Kawhi is another story. He's on LeBron James' level in his ability to affect the game at both ends, something no one can deny considering how dominant San Antonio was in Oakland before he went down and how helpless it appeared once he was missing. Even if he's at just 80 percent, Leonard can be the catalyst Gregg Popovich needs since no one on the roster has been capable of adequately filling that role.”
“Aldridge was the biggest culprit among those who failed to step up since he was brought in to be that type of player two years ago, but he's also been playing through knee issues and has been tentative in attacking single coverage while looking indecisive and clunky against double-teams. He took just 11 shots in Game 2 and will benefit from likely having Leonard out there in serviceable condition in addition to being at home, where Spurs role players should also feel more comfortable and be better equipped to aid the cause. It all rides on Leonard, though. If he helps teammates believe, they will. If he's not out there, San Antonio is smart enough to know it’s a beaten group. Fortunately, having so many days between games has given them a fighting chance to claw back in the series. Had Game 3 been played Thursday, the Western Conference finals would likely already be 3-0.”
As of Friday afternoon, Leonard has been upgraded to ‘questionable’ and he told reporters that he’s day-to-day for Game 3.
Prior to Tuesday’s romp, the Spurs had gone 8-1 in nine games without Leonard this season and they only allowed 91.6 PPG.
The extra time off hasn’t hurt the Warriors this season but it has chipped away at bettors who’ve backed them in those spots. Golden State has gone 3-0 when playing on three days or more of rest in this year’s playoffs but it’s failed to cover the number in each of those wins, coincidentally all of those results happened in Game 1 of their first three series.
Golden State has produced a perfect 4-0 record both straight up and against the spread on the road in the postseason and all of the outcomes were decided by double digits.
The Warriors were favored in all of those games and oddsmakers opened them as six-point favorites for Game 3 at San Antonio.
VegasInsider.com NBA expert Kevin Rogers offers his thoughts on San Antonio being listed as a home underdog on Saturday.
Rogers explained, “The Spurs are in rarified air heading into an important Game 3 at the AT&T Center. San Antonio has not been listed as a home underdog in the playoffs since Game 5 of the NBA Finals in 2013 against Miami, as the Spurs won that contest as one-point ‘dogs, 114-104. When’s the last time San Antonio received at least three points at home in the playoffs? You have to go back to Game 3 of the 2002 conference semifinals against the Lakers when the Spurs closed as three-point home ‘dogs and lost to L.A., 99-89.”
“Gregg Popovich’s squads don’t normally fall into 2-0 holes in the playoffs as the Spurs faced this deficit last in the 2010 second round against the Suns after dropping the first two games in Phoenix. San Antonio ultimately lost the next two games and were swept at home.”
In this year’s playoffs, we’ve had eight series watch teams go up 2-0 with victories at home. In Game 3, the home team has rebounded four times (OKC, Atlanta, Memphis, Washington) to trim the series to a 2-1 deficit. The other four instances where the road team went up 3-0 came from the Warriors and Cavaliers, who have both notched sweeps in their first two matchups.
Despite a slow start, the 'over' (210) easily cashed in Game 2 and the high side is now 4-1 in the five head-to-head meetings between the clubs this season.
Total bettors investing in halftime wagers watched the 'under' connect in the first 24 minutes of Game 1 but the 'over' is 3-0 in the last three halves.
The total for Game 2 opened 212 and it's been holding steady at most betting shops. Leonard's status will likely affect this number in either direction but the 'over' trend in this year's playoffs has been on a serious roll and San Antonio has provided a large contribution to this record.
The Spurs have seen the 'over' go 11-3 in the playoffs, which includes a 5-1 record from the AT&T Center.
Golden State has also leaned to the high side (7-3) in this year's postseason and that comes as a surprise considering the Warriors watched the 'under' go 50-32 (28-13 away) during the regular season. The club hasn't been held under 100 in the playoffs as visitors and that's helped the 'over' go 3-1 but San Antonio's defense at home should present (99.3 PPG) a test. Make a note that Golden State’s defense (100.5 PPG) has been very solid on the road in the playoffs.
Bettors looking to score a longshot ticket can take the Spurs to win the series at 22/1 odds (Bet $100 to win $2,200) while the risk on Golden State (-12,500) should keep most on the sidelines. The Warriors are 1/3 favorites (Bet $100 to win $33) to win this year’s NBA Finals.
NBA Western Conference Finals Game 3 Betting Preview
Covers.com
Golden State Warriors at San Antonio Spurs (+6, 212.5)
The Golden State Warriors have yet to lose in the postseason and certainly didn't look like a team that was on the verge of taking its first "L" while blasting the San Antonio Spurs in Game 2 of the Western Conference finals on Tuesday. The Spurs had a few days off to get healthy and try to put the 136-100 thrashing behind them and will get the chance to play host when the series shifts to San Antonio for Game 3 on Saturday.
The Spurs watched Game 1 turn when superstar small forward Kawhi Leonard went down with an ankle injury and are hoping he can return to the lineup for Game 3, though a change in attitude is necessary whether or not Leonard is on the floor. "I don't think they believed," San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich told reporters after watching his team get crushed in Game 2. "And you have to believe. I don't think as a group they really did, which means probably a little bit feeling sorry for themselves psychologically, subconsciously, whatever psycho-babble word you want to use. … That was disappointing." The Warriors are feeling pretty good about themselves after shooting 56.2 percent from the floor in Game 2 while holding the Spurs to 37 percent. "We just came out and played our game," Golden State forward Kevin Durant told reporters. "We moved the ball. Everybody touched it and felt good about themselves, and that generated some good looks."
LINE HISTORY: The Warriors opened as 6.5-point road chalk against heading into Game 3 in San Antonio and that line has been bet down to an even 6. The total hitting the betting board at 212 and has yet to move off the opening number. Check out the complete line history here.
WHAT SHARPS SAY: "The San Antonio Spurs learned to adjust without Kawhi Leonard in their Game Six rout over Houston in they year’s playoffs. However, they’ve looked lost without him in this series, having been outscored by 59 points since he left the floor and failed to return in Game One. Compounding the problem has been LaMarcus Aldridge’s disappearance on the floor (one field goal in the first half of Tuesday’s rout). After being hogtied and embarrassed, expect a concerted effort from the Spurs tonight." - Covers Expert Marc Lawrence
INJURY REPORT:
Warriors - SG Andre Iguodala (Questionable, knee), C Zaza Pachulia (Questionable, heel), PF Draymond Green (Questionable, back), SF Kevon Looney (Out Indefinitely, hip)
Spurs - SF Kawhi Leonard (Questionable, ankle), PG Tony Parker (Out For Season, quadricep).
ABOUT THE SPURS (69-27 SU, 49-45-2 ATS, 54-40-2 O/U): Leonard is the only player in the series to make the All-NBA first team but sat out two of the last three playoff games due to left ankle issues and did not do any on-court work while reporters were at the San Antonio practice facility on Thursday. If Leonard is limited or unable to go, the Spurs will need more from LaMarcus Aldridge, who managed eight points on 4-of-11 shooting in Game 2. "LaMarcus has to score for us," Popovich told reporters. "He can't be timid. He turned down shots in the first quarter. He can't do it. You've got to score. Scoring has to come from some place."
ABOUT THE WARRIORS (77-15 SU, 46-43-3 ATS, 39-53-0 O/U): Durant and point guard Stephen Curry were both named to the All-NBA second team on Thursday while forward Draymond Green was a third-team selection. All-Star shooting guard Klay Thompson was left off the All-NBA teams and is one of the few Golden State players struggling in the postseason while averaging 14.6 points on 38.8 percent shooting - down from 22.3 points on 46.8 percent shooting in the regular season. "When you look around, what did we win? Sixty-seven games or something like that? And we probably just handed teams three or four," Green told reporters when asked about Thompson missing out on an All-NBA team. "You're talking a possible 70-win season. I think Klay is one of our top three guys, and to not be on an All-NBA team, I think it's pretty crazy."
TRENDS:
* Over is 7-1 in Spurs last eight games following a ATS loss.
* Over is 13-3 in Spurs last 16 overall.
* Over is 5-1 in Warriors last six games following a ATS win.
* Spurs are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. NBA Pacific.
* Warriors are 9-0 ATS in their last nine road games.
CONSENSUS: 56 percent are taking the road favorite Warriors and 70 percent are on the Over.
Warriors, Spurs meet in Game 3
By: StatFox.com
The Spurs will be hoping to get back into the series with a home victory over the Warriors in Game 3 on Saturday.
The Spurs led by as many as 25 points in Game 1 of this series, but SF Kawhi Leonard (Ankle) went down in that one and it completely changed the outcome. The Warriors mounted a furious rally in the second half, and ended up winning the game 113-111. Golden State then came out and demolished San Antonio 136-100 as a 13.5-point favorite at Oracle Arena in Game 2. Those two games showed exactly what Leonard means to the Spurs, and the superstar is listed as questionable for this contest on Saturday. Fortunately for both Leonard and the team, Saturday marks five days since Leonard last played. That means he has had time to rest, so he will definitely do everything he can to get back out there. If he doesn’t then it’s hard to imagine the Warriors losing, which is something they haven’t done since Apr. 10 anyway. One trend that favors Golden State in this game is the fact that the team is 9-1 ATS in road games off two or more consecutive home wins this season. The Warriors are, however, facing a Spurs team that is 40-19 ATS in home games after a blowout loss by 15 points or more since 1996.
The Warriors really put a beating on the Spurs in Game 2 of this series, and PG Stephen Curry (28.6 PPG, 5.8 APG, 5.6 RPG, 1.7 SPG; all player stats from postseason) continued his hot shooting for Golden State. Curry had 29 points in 31 minutes of action in Game 2, shooting 8-for-13 from the floor and 6-for-9 from the outside. He is now 13-for-25 from three in this series, and he seems to have put his postseason struggles from years past behind him. If he can keep playing the way he has then it’s tough to imagine anybody knocking out the Warriors. SF Kevin Durant (23.8 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 1.3 BPG) has also been great for the Warriors. Durant had just 16 points in Game 2, but he was 6-for-10 from the floor and hit shots when called upon. If Leonard is able to play in Game 3 then things will be a bit tougher on Durant to score, though. He’d be wise to test Leonard’s ankle with a few drives early on. It wouldn’t hurt if he took on a facilitating role either. The Spurs have nobody that is capable of guarding Curry, so this might be a series that Golden State should rely on the two-time MVP. And as always, both PF Draymond Green (14.1 PPG, 8.9 RPG, 7.1 APG, 2.3 BPG, 2.0 SPG) and SG Klay Thompson (14.6 PPG, 1.2 SPG) are there to play their two-way brands of ball. Green has, however, been shooting the ball better than ever, as he is knocking down 47.9% of his threes in the playoffs.
The Spurs can still chip away at this series deficit, but they’re really going to need SF Kawhi Leonard (27.7 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 4.6 APG, 1.7 SPG) back on the floor in order to do that. For as much praise as the Spurs get for their ability to move the ball and balance out their offense, the team needs Leonard out there in order to compete with Golden State. He is the best offensive player on this team, as he has the ability to score from all over the floor and also get his teammates involved. Leonard also happens to be the best defensive player in the league, and San Antonio is missing his ability to lock up one of the Warriors’ four stars. Whether or not Leonard does play, PF LaMarcus Aldridge (17.0 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 1.0 BPG) must raise his game. Aldridge had 28 points in Game 1 of this series, but he had just eight when he was the top option in Game 2. If he is not scoring around 20 then it’s hard to imagine the Spurs keeping this game close. Aldridge is here for his ability to put the ball in the basket, which is something he hasn’t done as well with the Spurs as he did with the Blazers.
Saturday's Best Bet
By Sportsbook.ag
Golden State vs. San Antonio
Sportsbook.ag Odds: Golden State (-6.5); Total set at 213.5
The extra days off between Games 2 and 3 were a huge bonus for an injury-riddled Spurs team who are hoping their MVP Kawhi Leonard will be back on the floor.
With or without Leonard in Game 3, a return home to Stan Antonio should serve the Spurs well as they've got their backs to the wall against a Warriors team that has yet to lose in these playoffs.
Obviously whether or not Leonard plays will have a significant impact on the game (and the line), so that makes getting down on this game a little tougher at the moment.
Knowing that this game is tough to get down on now, this play is based on the assumption that Leonard does suit up for the Spurs. The extra days off should help him enough to at least get out there and contribute in some fashion, especially with San Antonio's season on the line.
No NBA team has ever come back from a 3-0 series hole, so the Spurs know they've got to find a way to win this game outright no matter who is on the floor. If Leonard doesn't suit up, the line will likely jump a point or two higher and if that's the case, grabbing those extra points isn't a bad idea either.
Situationally, San Antonio has to be happy to be back at home as role players typically play much better in comfortable surroundings then they do on the road.
That means that guys like Simmons and Murray should have solid games during their time on the floor, and even the bigger names like Aldridge, Gasol, and Ginobili should be poised to play much better.
Counting out this Spurs team in spots like this over the years has never treated any betting bankroll kindly, and I'm not about to go that route for Game 3.
From the Warriors perspective, they would love to put the dagger in San Antonio here and remain undefeated in these playoffs. But that is a lot easier said then done against a veteran team with their backs against the wall and from my view, this line is a point or two too high.
The Warriors are on a 0-4 SU run after having 3+ days off in their last four tries, while they are also 0-3-1 ATS after scoring 125+.
Compare those numbers to San Antonio's 7-2 ATS run after 3+ days off, and a 4-1 ATS run after allowing 125+ points, and it's tough not to grab the points with the home dog here in Game 3.
So with Leonard's status still up in the air at the time of this writing, some bettors may want to wait on that being confirmed before officially placing a bet.
However, just as the line will go up to +7.5 or more if he's out, this line will likely go down to +5.5 or so if he's confirmed to play.
Sometimes that extra point makes all the different in point spread betting, so deciding to spread out your wagers on the Spurs with some now at +6.5 and some later once Leonard's status is confirmed is another way to attack this game.
Best Bet: San Antonio +6.5