Free Picks for Friday, May 19th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
Jim Feist
Penguins vs. Senators
Play: Over 5
Pittsburgh is down 2-1 in the series and will push the tempo after scoring 1 goal in each of the first three games. They comes off a 5-1 loss with a defense ranked #17 in goals allowed, #20 in penalty killing. The Over is 8-3 in Penguins last 11 road games. Ottawa is home and 3-1-3 over the total playing on 1 days rest.
Scott Spreitzer
Indians vs. Astros
Play: Astros -134
Houston's rebuilding project that began in 2013 has come to fruition much like the Cubs last year as the Astros are the class of the league with a 29-12 record and a 7 1/2 game lead in the AL West. The Astros have won nine of their last 10 games, including their last four in a row and now face Trevor Bauer, who is 3-4 with a 6.92 ERA. Bauer faced the Astros on April 26 and gave up four runs and six hits in six innings although the Indians pulled out a 7-6 win. Houston has won Charlie Morton's last four starts and Morton is 4-0 with a 2.43 ERA at home this season. Cleveland has lost five of its last seven games and its big free agent signee, Edwin Encarnacion, is batting .203. The line is reasonable due to Bauer's previous success against the Astros, but this is the best Houston team since 2005.
Jesse Schule
Blue Jays vs. Orioles
Play: Blue Jays +1½
The Jays went into a home and home series versus Atlanta as winners of five in a row, but the Braves bats had their way with the back end of Toronto's rotation. They play Game 1 of a three game series in Baltimore Friday, and with Aaron Sanchez starting opposite Chris Tillman, the Jays appear to have a favorable matchup on the mound.
Tillman (1-0, 2.89 ERA) allowed a pair of runs on eight hits and two walks, using 105 pitches to get through 4 1/3 innings in a loss to Kansas City his last time out. He's been clobbered by the Jays, going 2-7 with a 6.78 ERA in his last 14 starts versus Toronto.
Sanchez (0-1, 2.95 ERA) allowed just one run on five hits and two walks over five innings in a 3-2 win over Seattle his last time out. He was 4-0 with a 3.00 ERA in five starts against the Orioles last season.
Troy Tulowitzki is scheduled to come off the DL to play Thursday, and he's 5-for-12 with three home runs lifetime versus Tillman.
Marc Lawrence
Blue Jays vs. Orioles
Play: Orioles -122
Edges - Orioles: Tillman 5-0 last five home team starts during May, and 4-1 last five tam starts versus Toronto… Blue Jays: 1-5 last six games in this series, and Sanchez 1-3 last four overall away team starts… with the Birds 6-0 in home series openers this season, we recommend a 1* play on Baltimore.
Wesley Scott
Rangers vs. Tigers
Play: Tigers -133
The Texas Rangers (22-20 Overall,6-12 Away) open game one of three, against the Detroit Tigers (20-19 Overall, 11-8 Home).
Texas has been playing lights out as of late, winning nine in a row. Those nine wins came against the Padres, Athletics and Phillies. All three teams have losing records and eight of their last nine wins have came at home.
The Rangers send Nick Martinez (0-2, 5.04 ERA) out tonight against the Tigers. Martinez has not got credit for a win since 2015. Over that span he has started 11 times and has yet to get a victory.
Martinez has faced Detroit three times in his career. Going 1-1 with a 4.82 ERA against them.
Detroit just won a close series against the Orioles, 2-1 and winning yesterday, 6-5. Daniel Norris (2-2, 4.32 ERA) this year looks to add to his win total tonight. In his last start against the Angels, Norris lasted five innings giving up three earned runs, getting a no decision.
Norris has been shaky at times this season, but the Rangers may have forgot what it feels like to win on the road against a team with a winning record.
Mike Anthony
Philadelphia vs. Pittsburgh
Play: Pittsburgh -110
Jeremy Hellickson vs Trevor Williams A perennial .300 batter candidate, Josh Harrison has been hitting a blistering .367 at home this season compared to .250 on the road. With those kind of numbers Harrison will balance out as the steady beefy hitter that Pittsburgh expects from him as the season wears on. The Phillies 3B Maikel Franco has continued his disappointing season at the plate, notching his 8th consecutive less than 2 hit effort and is struggling to keep his dismal batting avg over .210. The effort by Philadelphia in the last week of games has been just awful - nothing is looking right. On the road, Philadelphia is in deep trouble.
Rob Vinciletti
Indians vs. Astros
Play: Over 9
This game fits a solid 88% totals system from the MLB Database that plays over for home favorites like Houston off a road favored 2+ run win scoring 4 or less runs, vs an opponent like Cleveland that comes in off a home favored loss also scoring 4 or less runs. Houston is averaging over 6 runs per game the past week. Morton making the start for the Astros has gone over in 4 of 5 at home. Bauer for the Tribe has a terrible 6.92 Era on the year. Look for this one to play over the total.
Brandon Shively
Washington vs. Atlanta
Pick: Washington
The Atlanta Braves lost a crucial part of their lineup when Freddie Freeman went down with an injury. He is one of the most important hitters on any roster, and Freeman is out for 10 weeks. He's a great run producer in the middle of the order, and he broke up a string of righties in this Atlanta lineup. This team is going to miss him badly.
RA Dickey is likely in his last season or two in the big leagues. His knuckler hasn't been fooling anyone this year. The Nationals have seen him a bunch of times, which is always helpful against a knuckleballer.
The Nationals have been the best offense in the league this year, and I don't see the Braves winning a slugfest with them without Freeman.
Big Al
Arizona vs. San Diego
Pick: Arizona
Taijuan Walker was given a fresh start this season when he was shipped off from Seattle south to Arizona and the National League. The results so far for the 24-year-old RHP have been mixed as Walker is 3-3 with a 3.91 ERA through his first eight starts, and those numbers are pretty much in line with what Walker has done throughout his career. There's plenty of time for improvement, and perhaps his second start against the Padres as a member of the Diamondbacks will kick start the rest of his season. Walker's best start of the season so far was easily the one he had vs. this team back on April 27 when Walker threw 104 pitches through eight innings, allowing just two runs on four hits while striking out 11 and walking none. Walker also did well in his two previous starts against San Diego as a member of the Mariners (1-1 with two earned runs on five hits in 12 innings with 13 K's and one BB). The D-Backs are 8-3 in the last 11 meetings with the Padres while San Diego is 0-8 in RHP Jered Weaver's last eight starts.
Strike Point Sports
San Francisco at St. Louis
Play: St. Louis -140
St. Louis got off to a slow start offensively this year but they have averaged over 5 runs per game in their last 15 games, which has led them to first place in the National League Central. Carlos Martinez has to be considered the ace of the staff now and he has been great in May winning all three starts behind a 2.70 ERA. San Francisco has been a major disappointment this year and just climbed out of the basement of the National League West. They have not been very good on the road this year as they are 6-15 away from San Francisco and Matt Moore has not helped that record. Moore has been awful in 4 starts on the road for the Giants as he is 0-3 with a 10.50 ERA, and I think he will have a tough time with the Cardinals in this one. Take St. Louis at home in this one.
Scott Rickenbach
Rangers vs. Tigers
Play: Under 9½
Summer weather is definitely not quite here yet and it will be a chilly and rather raw evening in Detroit Friday. That certainly isn't going to help the hitters and that's bad news for a Texas team that is hitting only .207 in road games this season! Even though Daniel Norris does not have impressive numbers this season his most recent home start was his 2nd quality start in 3 home outings this season. In those two strong efforts, Norris has given up only 4 earned runs in 12 and 1/3 innings and he struck out 8 in 6 innings in his most recent home start. The Rangers will have Nick Martinez on the mound and he held the Tigers to 1 earned run in 6 innings in his most recent start at Detroit and that was 3 seasons ago. The Tigers haven't faced him since 2014 so they are not that familiar with him and that is an edge for the pitcher as well. The Rangers had an offensive explosion in their most recent road game but, prior to that, had averaged just 2.25 runs per game in their 4 prior road games. The Tigers have been held to 9 hits or less in 9 of their last 11 games! The under has cashed in 11 of 19 games when Detroit is off of a win this season. The under is 13-7 this season when the Rangers are off of a win. Also, the under is 5-2 in Rangers games against southpaw starters this season. This season the under is 8-4 in Texas games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. Also, when on the road with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs, the Rangers have gone 24-13 to the under in recent seasons. Look for more of the same on a chilly night at Comerica Park Friday.
Dustin Hawkins
Rangers vs. Tigers
Play: Tigers -135
Play against all underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (TEXAS) - after 9 or more consecutive wins, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. (36-7 since 1997.) (83.7%). Detroit is 20-8 against the money line in home games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 54%) over the last 2 seasons.
Wunderdog
Washington @ Los Angeles
Pick: Under 164.5
Washington's status in the East immediately soared when they acquired Elena Delle Donne from Chicago in an off-season trade. Donne is a versatile star in this league and presents matchup problems for any team, as she can play and score inside or out. She dropped 24 points in a season-opening win for the Mystics. LA is the reigning WNBA Champion, so everyone is going to be gunning for them this season. That typically means that defense is going to be intense. LA may be without Candace Parker, as well as Carson and Lavender tonight, so the Sparks offense is going to have fewer options, and the defense is going to have to have its thumb on this game. Washington has been 6-0 to the UNDER in the last three years after scoring 85+ points in a home win in their previous contest.
SPORTS WAGERS
Arizona -1½ +121 over SAN DIEGO
Taijuan Walker’s stuff is getting filthier by the week. Here’s a guy with a 73% groundball rate over his past two starts and that has an outstanding 15/43 BB/K split over 46 innings. Walker always had potential but he spent this past offseason adjusting his pitching mechanics to gain more deception and to work on his sinker. That sinker is playing a major role in his progress and is now a key pitch in his arsenal. That said, our fade against Jered Weaver will remain intact until dude hangs up his cleats.
Weaver’s ERA is 6.05 after eight starts. Over his past three starts covering 13 innings, Weaver has been tagged for 21 hits and 18 runs. He’s surrendered two jacks or more in all of his starts this year but two and the Padres are 0-8 in his eight starts. Since 2010, as his fastball velocity slid from 90 to its current 82 MPH, his xERA rose from 3.46 to the nightmare he posted last year and continues to post this year. Weaver has 23 K’s in 42 innings with a 4% swing and miss rate. He had his best game of the year last time out when he allowed just one run over six innings against the South Side but his line drive rate was 38% that day, which means everything was hit hard but right at folks. At the end of the day, Weaver must be faded because he remains one of the top three most hittable and useless starters in the game. Oh, the Padres aren’t very good either.
Texas +129 over DETROIT
If things go swimmingly for the Tigers, they have a 50% chance of winning here. The more likely scenario is that they don’t get every bounce and lose. Daniel Norris is a young pitcher who showed some good things in 2016, especially in September. However, he was whacked more often than not last season and he’s still getting whacked more often than not. In seven starts, Norris has a BB/K split of 19/31 over 37 innings. His WHIP this year of 1.74 is the highest among starting pitchers with six or more starts. His WHIP over his last five starts is 1.93. Norris is always deep in the count. His first-pitch strike rate was 38% last game and is 49% on the year. The more pitches a batter sees, the better his chances and Norris throws more pitches per batter than any qualified starter in the game. Norris has potential but he nibbles, he’s hugely inconsistent and therefore we have to view him as a work-in-progress and massive risk when favored instead of an MLB-ready contributor. His 5.44 xERA doesn’t suggest anything otherwise either.
Nick Martinez is not going to dazzle anyone but what he will do is work quickly, throw strikes and induce groundballs and that’s enough to get our endorsement here. Martinez has just 15 K’s in 30 innings but he’s only walked six batters. He throws 94 MPH and keeps the ball down. Martinez is risky to be sure. All pitchers that don’t generate a slot of swings and misses are but as a dog in this spot, he and the Rangers are worthy of a bet. Additionally, the Rangers are on a roll and that, too, comes into play.
Kansas City -1½ +170 over MINNESOTA
If we’re betting the Rockies based on the doubleheader fade, we therefore must bet the Royals too based on the same strategy. However, we also like the favorable pitching matchup here in the Royals favor as well.
Hector Santiago is 4-2 after eight starts with a 3.80 ERA. At home, Santiago is 3-0 after four starts with a 2.59 ERA so his stock is high and that makes us instant sellers on this below average starter. Santiago’s career xERA shows he’s been pushing his luck for years, saved by higher than normal strand rates and for the last two seasons lower than normal hit rates. That doesn’t mean he won’t be lucky today but it means that he’s very hittable and overpriced because of it. Santiago comes in with a xERA of 5.22 at home, which is not close to his actual 2.59 home ERA. He’s a pitcher that does not own even one good skill. He’s walked 18 batters in 45 frames but his first-pitch strike rate is awful at 52%. He has a mere 32 K’s with a below average swing and miss rate of 7%. His career groundball/fly-ball rate split is 33%/48% and this year it’s almost identical at 34%/46%. Santiago’s WHIP over his last five starts is 1.58 and his first-pitch strike rate over that same span is 46%! One simply cannot combine this many fly balls with this many free passes and hope to succeed. He’s surviving on nothing but pure luck right now but when it inevitably runs out, things will get ugly fast.
Nathan Karns is another undervalued arm worth investing in. His skills so far in 2017 have been very strong with 9.2 K’s/9, 3.1 BB’s/9 and a 57% groundball rate. With his ability to induce groundballs and miss bats (12.1% swing and miss rate), he's someone who could sustain a sub-4 ERA after his 19% hr/f comes down. Nathan Karns is by far the superior pitcher here. His actual ERA of 4.46 is misleading and provides us with an opportunity to buy low. Karns’ 3.11 xERA reveals just how good he’s been under the hood and once again it is the reason we do not buy surface stats. Buying Karns is the right play.
CINCINNATI -1½ +188 over Colorado
From the very beginning and up to the mid or late 80’s, baseball teams used to schedule Sunday doubleheaders all the time. Each team routinely scheduled a half dozen or more throughout the season. One could buy one ticket and watch two games and it would last between five and six hours. Nowadays, DH’s are forced when a rainout occurs. Teams now play two games in one day but there is a two-to three hour break in between games to allow the first group of fans to leave and the second group to arrive. Teams’ usually get to the park 2½ to three hours before game time. Thus, a game that starts at 1:00 PM means the players will arrive at 10 or 10:30 AM. The second game will end at 10:30 PM or later, which means for players, it’s a 12-hour day of baseball. Throw in the sitting around in between games and the sitting around the previous day when waiting out a rain delay and the result is a mentally and physically drained team the day after a DH. For the Rockies today, it also means a day of traveling.
We’re always looking for strong situational plays in all sports and this has to be considered one of them. From this day forward, this angle will be applied often and we’re going to put it to the test here. This game is evenly priced to the option to bet the Reds at a pick-em or thereabouts is available but we’ll go for the kill in this hitter’s park.
Starting for the Reds will be 26-year-old Lisalverto Bonilla, who once was a promising, raw prospect early in his career in the Phillies and Rangers organizations. After pitching in the majors for 20.2 innings with Texas in 2014, Bonilla had to undergo Tommy John surgery that caused him to miss the entire 2015 campaign. The Reds obtained him off waivers in February 2017. Bonilla has always impressed with his pure stuff. He can fire his fastball in the 94-96 mph range and complements it with a slider and very good change-up. His off-speed pitch borders on plus status. He has thrown quality strikes throughout his career and gets swings and misses with his power arsenal. He had 118 K’s and 40 BB’s in 111 innings, working as both a starter and reliever in both Double-A and Triple-A in 2016. He got his feet last week in San Fran with a decent eight-inning, six hit, three runs performance and he’ll be facing what figures to be a fatigued opponent.
Tyler Anderson is a pitcher we’re keeping a close eye on because he’s a lot better than his surface stats suggest. We’ll get into his profile when the time is right but this isn’t that time, as this wager is a fade against a situation.