NBA betting trends, odds and predictions for Friday, May 19th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
NBA Knowledge
Cleveland is 9-0 in playoffs (6-2-1 vs spread), 5-0 on road (4-0-1 vs spread); over is 7-2 in their last playoff games. Cavaliers were up 22 at the half here in Game 1 Monday; they’re 8-2 in last ten games vs Boston, winning five of last six games in this building. Four of last six series games went over the total. Boston lost four of last six games overall but won five of last six home games. Over is 6-2 in Celtics’ last eight games. Boston is playing for third time in five nights; Cleveland had 11 days off before starting this series.
Armadillosports.com
Friday's NBA Essentials
By Tony Mejia
VegasInsider.com
Cleveland at Boston
In Game 1, the Cavs obliterated all hope that we might get a competitive conference finals in an NBA playoffs that has been light on games not decided until the final few possessions.
Fortunately for Boston, a series can't end on a first-round knockout.
It can't end in a Game 2 either, though the Celtics might want to cop to a TKO and skip the trip to Cleveland if they can't get off the mat and even the Eastern Conference finals up at home, keeping the Cavs from tying the 1988-89 Lakers with 13 consecutive playoff wins.
LeBron James dominated the opener with a masterful performance in leading the Cavs to a wire-to-wire 117-104 win that was nowhere near as close as the final score indicates. Realistically, Game 1 was over before halftime, following a 12-0 run that turned a 36-25 deficit into an insurmountable 23-point gap. The Cavs led by as many as 28 points and never allowed Boston within single-digits after the 53-second mark of the opening quarter.
The crowd at TD Garden was never allowed to truly become a factor as James largely toyed with defensive schemes he apparently saw coming in his extensive preparations.
What can change for Game 2? For our purposes, let's start with the spread. After opening as a 3.5-point home underdog, Boston closed at 4-to-4.5 dogs in Game 1. The eye-opening rout saw the Game 2 line open at 5 and quickly reach the 5.5-to-6 range as the public pounded the Cavs.
Considering the Celtics were behind three possessions-worth of points for the final time before the 5:00 mark of the opening quarter on Wednesday, this still seems like easy money. What remains to be seen is whether Boston has a completely different game in it this time around. That doesn't really start with defense, but rather, with 3-point shooting.
In Game 1 of the semifinal series against Washington, Boston erased a 16-0 deficit quickly by going on a 3-point barrage. They made 19 of the 39 they fired up, continuing a trend that began against the Bulls. Yes, the Celtics only survived Chicago after Rajon Rondo was lost, but their formula to reach these depths has been spreading the floor via the 3-pointer and defending with intensity on the opposite end. They averaged just shy of 15 made 3s in their victories over the Wizards and has to be the driving force hagainst Celveland.
James' size advantage against Celtics wings and his ability to create mismatches by getting to the rim or beating double-teams with his deft passing likely means Boston will struggle to find answers on defense, but they can still hang around if outside shots are falling. In the first half of Game 1, it shot 2-for-16 in the first half, going 1-for-8 in each quarter. They were down double-digits after the opening 12 minutes despite the Cavs starting off the game 0-for-5 from 3-point range. If the Cavs aren't hitting shots, that's no problem because of the quality shots their getting.
If the Celtics are off, they don't rebound well enough to make up the difference and can't set their defense properly to even have a chance at keeping Cleveland to its spots. The second half was won by Boston in part because of the Cavs being less aggressive due to their sizeabale lead, but going 10-for-22 from beyond the arc went a long way in helping them top the century mark for 10th time in 12 playoff games after scoring just 39 first-half points.
No one has hit more 3-pointers than Boston over the last month. Although the Cavs average 14 per game, Boston is right behind at 13 but has played six more games and has made nearly 70 more 3s since the playoffs have begun. They shoot them at a higher percentage too (35.1-to-32.9), so it's not out of the question that the Celtics will be able to play the 3-for-2 game, mix in some breaks and potentially steal a game on their home floor.
Cleveland isn't great at closing out on 3-pointers and struggled defensively throughout the collapse that cost it the No. 1 seed in the East down the stretch. Thus far in this postseason, they're surrendering nearly 35 percent shooting from 3-point range, while the Celtics are second behind OKC among the 16 playoff teams in holding teams to 31.4 percent shooting from beyond the arc. The key to making up the massive gulf of separation James provides sure seems like it's going to come here.
It probably won't come on the boards, where Cleveland only won Game 1 44-40 but seemed to dominate when it came to second-chance opportunities or rebounds that had to be corraled while the outcome still hadn't been decided. Boston probably won't be able to play two bigs on the floor at the same time given the mismatches that creates for James and Kyrie Irving in pick-and-roll situations. Considering Irving only scored 11 points on 11 shots and the teams combined for 4-for-25 3-point shooting, the fact we still got a higher-scoring game than the closing number in Game 1 was astounding.
Bettors riding the ‘over’ in Game 1 (219) cashed tickets on Wednesday and they had to work for the winner as the number connected in the final minute on a layup from Boston’s Kelly Olynyk.
Oddsmakers opened Game 2’s number at 220 and VegasInsider.com NBA analyst Chris David offered his thoughts on the opener and Friday’s total.
“The old adage ‘Defense wins Championships’ can be kicked to the rocks this postseason and the phrase should be ‘First to 120’ could easily replace it. Including the result from Game 1, the ‘over’ is now 17-7 since the conference semifinals and is 3-0 in the first three matchups of the conference finals,” said David.
“Even though the ‘under’ was the right side in Game 1, it’s hard to lean to the low side again just based on the offensive form from Cleveland. The Cavaliers dropped 117 on Wednesday and they only made 11 triples from downtown, which was tied for their second-worst effort in this year’s playoffs. They did make up for it at the free throw stripe by connecting on 28-of-35 (80%) freebies and I wouldn’t expect that number to drop that much in this series. Boston hasn’t been able to slow down Cleveland all season (116.4 PPG) and if you thought the Celtics were tired in Game 1, what’s going to change in Game 2? The team total for the Cavaliers is hovering at 112 ½ for Friday’s encounter and bettors should be aware that Boston’s defense (108.4 PPG) has been less productive at home in the postseason.”
Boston has to keep Kevin Love from being such a dependable outlet for James since the game really got away once he got loose for layups and open 3-point looks. The player the Celtics once coveted and Kelly Olynyk knocked out of the 2015 postseason scored 32 points and grabbed a team-high 12 rebounds. He had a 30-point, 15-rebound game against the C's in December too.
Despite the Game 1 rout, the Celtics are 9-3 ATS record over the last 12 contests. A run of five straight home covers ended for Boston, Cleveland is on a 6-0-1 ATS run over the past seven games. James-led teams are 20-0 upon going up 2-0.
Eastern Conference Finals Game 2 Betting Preview
Covers.com
Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics (+4.5, 219.5)
The Cleveland Cavaliers displayed little signs of rust in the opener of the Eastern Conference finals and look to take a 2-0 lead when they visit the Boston Celtics on Friday. Cleveland had been off since May 7 before annihilating Boston for the first three quarters of Wednesday's Game 1 and settling for a 117-104 victory.
The second-seeded Cavaliers are 9-0 in the postseason and are the recipients of a slew of superb efforts by forward LeBron James, who had 38 points, nine rebounds and seven assists in Game 1. "He's playing at a high level, and that's the reason why we're riding him so much," Cleveland coach Tyronn Lue told reporters. "When LeBron's playing at that level other guys just have to be solid and we have a good chance to win." The third-seeded Celtics are looking to avoid digging a huge hole at home but point guard Isaiah Thomas declared his squad isn't intimidated. "They lace up their shoes just like us," Thomas told reporters on Thursday. "They just happened to play better than us in Game 1. We just gotta protect home court in Game 2 and get the win."
LINE HISTORY: The Celtics opened as 5-point home dogs for this critical Game 2 and that line was quickly bet up to 6 on Thursday morning before fading back to 5 on Thursday night. The total hit the betting board at 220 and came down slight to 219.5. Check out the complete line history here.
WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Each team was in a completely different scheduling situation in Game 1 on Wednesday. The Cavaliers had nine days off after an easy four-game sweep of the Raptors, while the Celtics had a just one day of rest after a grueling seven-game series versus the Wizards. The Cavaliers were not rusty, or maybe the Celtics were just flat, as Cleveland stormed out to a 22-point lead at halftime. Now Boston must try to regroup on their home court where they are 35-14 SU this season." - Covers Expert Steve Merril.
INJURY REPORT:
Cavaliers - C Edy Tavares (Out For Season, hand), PG Kay Felder (Out Indefinitely, leg).
Celtics - No injuries to report.
ABOUT THE CAVALIERS (60-31 SU, 42-45-4 ATS, 54-36-1 O/U): LeBron James is averaging 34.8 points, nine rebounds and 7.1 assists in the postseason and has scored 30 or more points in each of the last seven games. He received help in Game 1 from power forward Kevin Love (career playoff-high 32 points to go with 12 rebounds) and center Tristan Thompson, who tallied a career playoff-best 20 points on 7-of-7 shooting. "I felt like everybody was moving the ball, passing the ball well," Love, who drained six 3-pointers, told reporters. "On both ends of the floor our game plan was pretty tight."
ABOUT THE CELTICS (61-35 SU, 49-45-2 ATS, 47-44-4 O/U): Isaiah Thomas tallied just 17 points on 7-of-19 shooting in the opener, marking the fourth time in the past six games he has scored fewer than 20 points. As the contest spiraled away from Boston, rookie forward Jaylen Brown made a case for more time in the series by producing 10 points (on 5-of-7 shooting) and nine rebounds in 20 minutes and going toe-to-toe with James after more experienced Celtics were exposed. "It was just playing basketball," Brown told reporters. "He laces his shoes up like I lace mine up. Coming out, playing basketball and trying to make it tough for him. I feel that's my job."
TRENDS:
* Cavaliers are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
* Celtics are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Over is 4-1 in Cavaliers last 5 games following a straight up win.
* Over is 7-1 in Celtics last 8 games following a straight up loss.
* Road team is 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
CONSENSUS: 64 percent of are siding with the road favorite Cleveland Cavaliers and 55 percent of are on the Over.
Desperate Celtics host Cavs
By: StatFox.com
The Cavaliers will be hoping to take a commanding 2-0 lead when they face the Celtics in Game 2 on Friday.
Wednesday night’s meeting between the Cavaliers and Celtics resulted in massive losses for sportsbooks, as the public was hammering Cleveland in a game that featured only a 3.5-point spread. The Cavaliers dominated that game, winning 117-104. It was a much bigger blowout than the final score indicated, so it’s a little surprising to see that Cleveland is only favored by around five in this one. The Celtics will, however, be a much more desperate team on Friday night. They know that they can’t go down two games heading into Cleveland, as that would almost certainly mean the end of their season. One trend that stands out when looking at this game is that the Cavaliers are 35-18 ATS when playing only their second game in five days over the past two seasons. The Cavaliers are, however, a miserable 4-14 ATS in road games after successfully covering the spread in three or more consecutive games over the past three seasons. One thing that shouldn’t change the outcome of this game is injuries. Both teams are at full strength coming into this one, but that can obviously change at any moment.
The Cavaliers put on a show in Game 1 of this series, and SF LeBron James (34.8 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 7.1 APG, 2.1 SPG, 1.3 BPG; all player stats from postseason) was brilliant for Cleveland. James finished the game with 38 points, nine boards, seven assists, and two steals in 42 minutes of action. He was 14-for-24 from the field, which is very impressive when considering he was a lousy 1-for-6 from the outside. Nobody on the Celtics showed the ability to guard him one-on-one, and that doesn’t seem like something that can change moving forward. He’ll continue to drive to the rim frequently, and if Boston doubles him then he’ll do what he can to find his shooters. One guy that benefitted from the extra attention that James received in Game 1 was PF Kevin Love (15.8 PPG, 9.4 RPG). Love finished the game with 32 points and 12 boards in 34 minutes of action. He was 6-for-8 from three, and if he continues to knock down open looks then the Celtics have no chance to get back into it. PG Kyrie Irving (22.3 PPG, 5.8 APG, 1.6 SPG) didn’t even play well in Game 1. He had just 11 points, and that is not likely to happen again moving forward. That is bad news for Boston.
The Celtics looked miserable in Game 1, as the team couldn’t get any stops and really lacked energy as well. Boston just got done playing a grueling seven-game series with Washington, so the team might have been feeling the effects of that battle. Still, the team must find a way to bring more energy on Friday. It should be able to do that, as it’s pretty clear the Celtics are fighting for their season here. One guy that must show up in order for Boston to even up the series is PG Isaiah Thomas (24.8 PPG, 6.7 APG). Thomas was lousy in Game 1, finishing with just 17 points on 7-for-19 shooting from the floor and 2-for-7 shooting from the outside. The Celtics need him to be more efficient the rest of the way, and he also will likely need to score around 30 points in order for his team to win games against the Cavs. C Al Horford (15.7 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 5.8 APG) is another guy that must get himself going in this series. Horford had only 11 points in Game 1, and he had scored 15 or more in three straight before that game. Although he is a gifted passer, the team needs him to be aggressive as a scorer in this series. Boston will also need guys like SFs Jae Crowder (13.8 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 1.1 SPG) and Jaylen Brown (3.8 PPG, 2.3 RPG) to do some solid work defensively on LeBron in this game. He manhandled them in Game 1, and that can’t happen again here.
Friday's Best Bet
By Sportsbook.ag
Cleveland vs. Boston
Sportsbook.ag Odds: Cleveland (-6); Total set at 219
Cleveland showed no signs of rust after their long layoff between the 2nd and 3rd rounds as they came out and established their dominance early in Game 1 en route to a never-in-doubt victory.
The 117-104 win was Cleveland's 9th straight in these playoffs, and the fourth in their last five by double digits.
The dominant fashion in which Cleveland beat Boston has the majority of bettors backing the Cavs once again tonight, but is that really where you should be putting your money?
Getting behind the Celtics will obviously be tough for some after Game 1's outcome, and with VegasInsider.com's betting percentage numbers already showing more than 80% of the money on tonight's point spread going Cleveland's way, it's not likely going to be a popular play.
However, being on the side the oddsmakers need isn't usually a bad thing, and as far as do-or-die Game 2's of a series go, this one is right up there for Boston.
The Celtics know they were manhandled in Game 1 and are likely to see the Cavs in top form at least one more time in this series. With Games 3 and 4 in Cleveland, it's not hard to argue that Boston's season is basically on the line tonight, as going into Cleveland and winning games when you absolutely half to will be next to impossible – especially after dropping the first two at home. Boston has to come out firing on all cylinders tonight to have a chance the rest of the way in this series and they'll be the first ones to tell you that.
For Cleveland, they definitely appear to be on a collision course with Golden State for another Finals rematch, but that doesn't mean either side won't have to deal with a few minor speed bumps along the way. The Cavs completely took Boston out of Game 1 by the time the 1st quarter was finished, and with three wins needed, and three games remaining at home in this series at worst, Cleveland has to like their position.
But after stealing home court advantage in this series and the 'hangover' effect now worn off for Boston, the Cavs will be in for a much tougher fight tonight and laying six points on the road against a desperate team is not something too many smart bettors will want to do a lot.
With Boston for all intents and purposes in do-or-die mode tonight, we should see them push Cleveland to their limits and a Boston ML play isn't out of the equation either. In a year dominated by blowouts in these NBA playoffs, it's about time we start getting some close games, especially with the underdogs in both series being at home today and tomorrow.
Boston is 7-2 ATS the last nine games after losing by double digits, and situationally, this game sets up quite well for them to get the ATS and possibly even the ML win.
Another blowout loss by Boston tonight and this series is likely over in four games. The Celtics know that, the Cavs know that, and most of the NBA fans around the world know that. But for Boston to even things up at a game apiece, or at worst hang tough until the final seconds and cover these points, would throw a bit of a curve ball into that narrative going forward.
Backing desperate teams isn't always the best thing to do because oddsmakers often shade the line that way, but that's definitely not the case tonight and it's nothing but value at +6 with a Boston team that could end up playing their best game of the year tonight.
Best Bet: Boston +6