Free Picks for Wednesday, May 17th, 2017 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers
DAVE COKIN
ASTROS AT MARLINS
PLAY: ASTROS -1
I’m using much the same philosophy I did on Tuesday with this high priced favorite.
This is pretty much a rerun of the Tuesday free play on Arizona that I was involved with. The Astros are the best team in baseball right now and they’re crushing just about every average or worse pitcher they face. Jose Urena fits on that count, and Lance McCullers owns an obviously substantial advantage on the mound.
As for the rest, the Astros have the better pen and most importantly, Miami is a dumpster fire at this point. I also happen to think this line is actually cheaper than it ought to be, considering the form of the two teams. So I’ll eat the chalk and will play the Astros here.
However, rather than simply lay the serious wood, I’m going to create a -1 line here to reduce the liability. That’s accomplished by playing the money line (currently -155) for half the wager, and also going with -1.5 (currently +105) for the other half. That works out to an Astros -1 play, and that’s the choice for the Wednesday free play.
Scott Rickenbach
Rays vs. Indians
Play: Under 9½
Everyone has jumped all over the over in this match-up and I can understand that based on the expected weather today in Cleveland. Very warm temperatures with the wind blowing out toward right-center is expected for this game. However, did the bettors that are pounding the over here bother to check this pitching match-up before coming in so strong on the over in this one? The fact is that the Rays Alex Cobb and the Indians Josh Tomlin are both in fine current form. Cobb has allowed just 12 hits in his 20 and 1/3 innings spanning his 3 starts so far in May. Also, Cobb has a stellar 2.76 ERA in his 5 career starts versus the Tribe. As for Tomlin, he has allowed just 2 earned runs on only 9 hits in the 15 innings spanning his last two starts. His ERA on the season does not impress but Tomlin is a solid hurler and he's rounding back into top form. When Tomlin faced the Rays last season he allowed only 5 hits in 7 innings and that outing was here in Cleveland as well. The very first totals that were posted on this game were 8.5 and now it's all the way up to a 9.5 with plus money available on the under. We could even end up seeing some 10's on this game but, either way, it is a strong value with the under. The under is 13-5 in the Indians last 18 games and the under is also 8-3 this season in Indians day games.
Jim Feist
Penguins vs. Senators
Play: Under 5
Ottawa does not look to push the tempo, #22 in the NBA in goals scored, #23 on the power play. They prefer slower pace, #10 in goals allowed. Ottawa is 62-28-4 under the total against the Metropolitan division, 37-17-4 under when their opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous game. That's what happened the last game, a 1-0 Penguins victory with few shots by either team. Pittsburgh can play any style, on a 5-2 run Under the total. The Under is 30-12-2 in the Senators last 44 home games.
Darryl Tucholski
Cavs vs. Celtics
Play: Cavs -4
3 of the last 4 games have been decided by 6 points or more in Cleveland's favor. They are well rested, have been steam rolling their way through the east. Lebron and company finally face a challenge, but this team has the shooters off of the bench to contend with Bostons depth for 48 minutes.
Jesse Schule
Brewers vs. Padres
Play: Under 8
The Brewers bats have been hot lately, but I expect them to cool off at pitcher friendly PETCO on Wednesday night.
Jhoulys Chacin will toe the slab for San Diego, and he's been lights out at home. Chacin (4-3, 5.12 ERA) allowed three runs on seven hits while striking out five over 6 1/3 innings in a win at Chicago his last time out. He's allowed just a single run while striking out 13 batters in three home starts this season.
The Brewers hand the ball to Matt Garza, who has looked very sharp going 2-0 with a 2.66 ERA in four starts so far. He allowed one run on eight hits, striking out four in seven innings in a 2-1 loss at Pittsburgh in his only start on the road.
San Diego remains one of the lowest scoring teams in the majors, batting a big league worst .220 this season.
Marc Lawrence
Blue Jays vs. Braves
Play: Braves -117
Edges - Braves: Foltynewicz 1-5 in his six team starts this season, despite sharp 3.74 and 1.34 WHIP… Blue Jays: Biagini off first ever MLB win in last starts in which he hurled 5 shutout innings against Seattle… With Foltynewicz in strong KW form with 14 Ks and 2 BBs his last three starts, we recommend a 1* play on Atlanta.
Sean Murphy
Astros vs. Marlins
Play: Under 8½
Lance McCullers will take the ball for the Astros. He's been lights out lately and consistently good so far this season, posting a stellar 2.98 ERA. He catches the slumping Marlins bats at the right time here, facing them for the first time in his career.
Jose Urena gets the nod for Miami. He's made two starts and both have been solid. Despite that, the Marlins came out on the wrong end of an 8-4 decision against the Braves at home in his last start. Urena can't take the blame for that loss as he gave up just two earned runs in six innings of work.
Both of these clubs have been solid 'over' bets so far this season but I'm not sure those trends are sustainable. Look for a relatively low-scoring affair at Marlins Park on Wednesday.
Larry Wallace
Dodgers -175
Clayton Kershaw is 6-2 this year with a 2.43 ERA. Kershaw is 19-9 in his career against the Giants with a 1.63 ERA. Cueto this year is 4-2 with a 4.15 ERA. Cueto in his career against the Dodgers is 6-6 with a 2.94 ERA. The Dodgers are 5-1 in their last 6 games against a team with a losing record.
Dustin Hawkins
Orioles vs. Tigers
Play: Tigers -143
Detroit pitcher Michael Fulmer is 14-4 against the line against an AL team with a batting average worse than .260 over the past 2 seasons.He is also 20-8 against the money line against a team that has an on base percentageof .330 or worse the past 2 seasons.Orioles pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez is 6-11 when starting against the Tigers with a ERA of 5.72 and a WHIP of 1.525.
Mike Anthony
Baltimore vs. Detroit
Play: Detroit -1.5
Ubaldo Jimenez vs Michael Fulmer The Tigers will give the O's a taste of what the team has become with their on base ability. Detroit will be rocking in in this matchup of AL teams. Detroit had their share of 7+ run games - expect no different here. The O's haven't won games consistently for weeks. Baltimore just have not been playing their best games since back in early May. Baltimore takes called 3rd strikes more than they should - Chris Davis in particular. The 1B for Baltimore has been struggling - on the season he is carrying along a .252 avg, 11 RBI though the 5.15.2017 period.
SPORTS WAGERS
ARIZONA -1½ +153 over N.Y. Mets
We like the price here on the D-Backs. This is a park that is unforgiving to pitchers that are having trouble finding the plate and Matt Harvey fits the bill. Harvey has walked 17 batters over his past 28 innings. Over his last five starts, he’s walked more batters than he’s struck out. Thoracic outlet syndrome surgery ended Harvey’s season early last year and its symptoms played a role in his near-5.00 ERA. With limited sample, TOS is in the early stages in terms of projectable recovery and results are spotty. We’re not going to ignore the signs that Harvey has not recovered. His ball % is getting worse with each passing start. His first-pitch strike rate has gone from 59% to 54% to 51% to 41% respectively over his past four starts. Throw in a 6.83/6.22 ERA/xERA split over that time and throw this unforgiving park into the equation and it sure doesn’t look promising for the Mets’ starter here. Matt Harvey is performing progressively worse with each passing start.
Since his breakout 2013 season, Patrick Corbin hasn't been much of a factor. He posted an ugly 5.15 ERA in 2016, but even after a blowup at Coors Field earlier this year, he’s now the owner of a 4.17 ERA through eight starts in 2017 so he’s a starter that’s trending in the right direction. Corbin was atypically wild a season ago, but has cut down on the free passes this season and the improvement is fully supported by his 62% first-pitch strike rate. His K-rate has remained steady, but he's actually getting a few more swings and misses early on, including 39 in a recent two-game stretch. The sample is still small, but perhaps a small strikeout rate bump is in the cards.
Corbin's groundball rate has fallen off from his 2016 mark, which was easily a career high but it’s of no concern because He still does a pretty nice job of keeping the ball down with a 52% rate so far this season. After a rough 2016 season, Corbin has flashed some positive signs in 2017. He's got his control back to his usual level and he’s inducing more swinging strikes than he did last season. Given his ability to miss some bats, limit the walks, and keep the ball down, he looks like a pretty good option here that we’re relying on to contain the Mets.
Colorado +124 over MINNESOTA
German Marquez is only four starts into his second season. Last year he appeared in six games with three of those coming as a starter. With a 4.88 ERA this year after four starts, he appears to be the second best option in this one and that may well be. However, this kid can pitch. Signed by the Rays in 2011 out of Venezuela for $225,000, Marquez was the prime player the Rockies received after the 2015 season when they traded Corey Dickerson to Tampa Bay. Marquez repaid the Rockies' confidence with a breakout 2016. He made the jump from Double-A Hartford to Triple-A Albuquerque to the big leagues in 2016, beating the Cardinals with five quality innings to win his first start. Marquez has plus velocity and it comes effortlessly at a consistent 94-96 mph and touches 98. The ball comes out of his hand with velocity and never fades. Marquez's solid three-pitch assortment includes a curveball that flashes plus and has good spin. His 2016 focus was to tighten it up, which he did. His changeup still needs work but it has good velocity differential from his fastball. He has shown an ability to pitch inside and use his changeup even when behind in the count. Most impressively, he reduced his walk rate in 2016 by more than a half walk per nine innings. This year, Marquez has 21 K’s in 24 innings. He has an outstanding 53% groundball rate. He’s a potential stud with nothing but upside and of all the Rocks’ starters, Marquez may give his team the best chance to win. With a 12-5 road record so far this year and with Marquez on the hill, the Rocks are live to be sure
Ervin Santana is killing it right now. After eight starts, Santana is 6-1 with a 1.50 ERA and he’s coming off a seven-inning, two-hit, zero earned runs gem against the Indians. While Santana has been serviceable for years, he’s not close to being this good but the market buys surface stats, which provides us with a beautifully inflated price here. Santana has a BB/K split of 21/41 in 54 frames. There’s nothing good about that at all. In fact, his BB/K ratio is poor. His 9% swing and miss rate is league average and so is his 60% first-pitch strike rate. Santana’s strong ERA is the direct result of MLB’s highest strand rate (92%) among qualified starters. Santana’s BABIP (batting average of balls in play) is a ridiculous .128 which is probably equivalent to a batter hitting .600 over the course of a season. In other words, that BABIP is impossible to sustain. Santana’s xERA is 4.07. Santana’s repertoire has not changed one bit so it’s not like he’s found some secret pitch all of a sudden. He’s been serviceable and extremely lucky and now he’s grossly overpriced because of it.
Philadelphia +125 over TEXAS
Zach Eflin was diagnosed in August of last year with a stress fracture in right foot and patellar tendinopathy in both knees. He subsequently underwent knee surgeries in September and was ready for spring training this year. He doesn’t miss enough bats (17 K’s in 32 innings) but we like his mound presence and his ability to locate. Eflin has walked just four batters all year and he has a nice groundball rate of 48%. This is a kid that steadily climbed the minors, one level per year like clockwork before his MLB debut last season. He posted outstanding minor-league numbers and he’s pitching with confidence at this level. He does not get into deep counts and is not afraid to throw any one of his three pitches at any time. We also like that his batting average against at every level including this one has always remained low.
Andrew Cashner is coming off a six-inning, five hit, one-run performance against the A’s. He now has an ERA of 2.43 after six starts and the most hits he’s allowed in any one of those starts is four. It all looks good on paper but when he inevitably blows up, you’ll know why because we’re about to inform you. Andrew Cashner can’t throw strikes. No pitcher in the history of this game has been able to succeed when he can’t throw strikes at this level and we promise you that Cashner is not going to be the first, especially at this park. In 33 innings this season, Cashner has walked 20 batters while striking out just 17. His swing and miss rate is 6%. Over his last five starts, Cashner’s WHIP is 1.68 but his ERA is 1.93 over that span. Those two numbers do not go hand in hand. What goes hand in hand with a 1.68 WHIP and 20 walks in 33 frames is an ERA in the neighbourhood of 6.00. Cashner’s xERA of 5.61 is a more accurate account of what’s in store for him sooner than later. One simply cannot get away with constantly falling behind in the count, not striking out many and putting traffic all around him and get away with it for long. Cashner is a disaster waiting to happen.
SPORTS WAGERS
AT&T Byron Nelson
Just occasionally, this beautiful game of golf has a habit of surprising us. THE PLAYERS Championship, played at the terrifically tough TPC Sawgrass, is commonly referred to as the unofficial fifth major, such is the heritage and the complexity of lifting the trophy. We, like most, suspected that one or more of the world’s finest players would be on the first page of the leaderboard so it was more-than-slightly eyebrow raising to see a Sunday shootout between Si-Woo Kim, Ian Poulter, and Louis Oosthuizen unfold and none of the top players even close.
It’s always sad to wave the iconic TPC Sawgrass goodbye, especially when it is followed by the *whisper it* rather underwhelming TPC Four Seasons. The players are on record as saying this is one of their least favorite courses on Tour, and as such it is perhaps no surprise to learn that it will be replaced as AT&T Byron Nelson host venue from 2019 onwards. This is the last time that TPC Four Seasons will host this event after a 35 year run – next year it will move to Trinity Forest GC in Dallas.
A Par 70 track at 7,166 yards, TPC Four Seasons was initially designed by Jay Morrish and Byron Nelson before a full overhaul in 2007 courtesy of D.A. Weibring and Steve Wolford. The Bentgrass greens are large, undulating and run at an ordinary 11 on the stimpmeter, while the redesign a decade ago brought into play plenty more water features. Given its short yardage, TPC Four Seasons is renowned for being a ‘less than driver’ course, with the average drive length 12 months ago a paltry (by modern standards) 280.6 yards. The fairways are of an average width and are Bermudagrass in construction.
The numbers produced here in the past suggest we are in for an all-round ball strikers test. Unusually for TPC Four Seasons, giving the ball a whack off the tee was crucial: Sergio Garcia (last year’s winner) ranked T4 for this metric, while the trio ahead of him – Dustin Johnson, Tony Finau, and Broos Koepka – finished T12, T12 and second respectively. So giving the ball a bunt will be important this week, especially with strong winds aiding and destroying in equal measure. Garcia only found 57.14% of fairways for a Driving Accuracy rank of T43, which would suggest his scrambling was exceptional. It had to be, because his Putting Average rating of 41st is nothing to write home about. So strong approach play and scrambling will be important in blustery Irving, as will giving it some humpty from the tee. Lastly, we’re looking for guys that play the Par 5s well. There’s only two of them in this Par 70 stretch of course, but Garcia played these at -6, which almost half his final score.
Once again, we’re not looking at anything under 40-1. We’re looking for bombs that cash big for a small wager. There are several longshots hovering around the leaderboard almost every week it seems and hopefully one or more of our choices will be in the mix again on Sunday,
Unless otherwise stated, the following bets to win outright will be placed at Bet365 because of their cash-out option during the event. Unless otherwise stated, the head-to-head match-ups will be bet at
To win outright plus head-to-head matchups:
Bud Cauley 40-1
Cauley is a guy whose first PGA TOUR title is coming sooner or later. The 27-year-old has 16 top-10 finishes to his name already, and one of those came here 12 months ago when he tied for fourth. Remarkably, three of those other top-10s have come in his last trio of starts: T9 at the RBC Heritage, T10 at the Texas Open, and T5 at the Zurich Classic. How’s that for a converging trend? You won’t find many better players on the approach from 125-175 yards, and if that short stick can get dialed in, he’s a major threat here at a pretty decent price. Cauley ranks 4th ON YOUR in Approaches from 150-175 Yards, 12th ON TOUR in Shots Gained (SG) Approach-the-Green and 44th ON TOUR in SG: Tee-to-Green. For all you DFS players, Cauley is very undervalued here and should be in your lineup (risking 0.2 units to win 8 units).
Head-to-head matchup:
B. Cauley +114 over B. Snedeker (Risking 1 unit).
Seung-Yul Noh 80-1
His birthday is May 29, but it's still strange to accept that he'll turn just 26 years of age given that he's in his sixth year with a PGA TOUR card. With fellow Korean, Si-Woo Kim, winning a rather prestigious trophy last week, you wonder if his fellow countrymen, such as the in-form Noh, will be inspired accordingly? Noh will be making his fourth appearance here at the AT&T Byron Nelson. He’s the kind of short-game artist who's trending to surprise on a course that suggests that the elements of ball-striking matter more. At last week's PLAYERS, he led the field in putts per greens in regulation en route to a share of 22nd place. It established a personal best in what was also his fourth appearance at TPC Sawgrass. The week prior, he logged a season-best T5 at the Wells Fargo Championship, ranking second in scrambling for the week and fourth in strokes gained: tee-to-green. Again, this is a player in white hot form at the moment and with all-round game from tee to green in very good shape, he is worth a wager to be sure (risking 0.2 units to win 16 units).
Head-to-head matchup:
SY. Noh +117 over H. Swafford (Risking 1 unit).
Ryan Palmer 50-1
There are a number of Texan specialists out there on the PGA TOUR, and Ryan Palmer has to be firmly classified as such, not surprising given that he is born and bred here. His last three starts prior to THE PLAYERS Championship ended with a T11 at the RBC Heritage, T6 at the Texas Open and solo fourth (you know what we mean) at the team-based Zurich Classic, and those follow a T3 return from another Texan jaunt, the Dean & Deluca Invitational, a year ago. Palmer is a long hitter who excels with a medium iron in his hand, and if he lives up to his ‘Par 5 killer’ billing (ranking 16th on tour for Par 5s) – while playing the Par 4s sensibly – then he could have another lofty finish to his name (risking 0.2 units to win 10 units).
Head-to-head matchup (72-hole betting) Bet365
Palmer +105 over Leishman (Risking 1 unit).
Robby Shelton 175-1
Shelton continues to bide his time until the Mackenzie Tour-PGA TOUR Canada commences in June. He's done all right in a couple of starts in the big leagues since medaling at Canada's qualifying school in April. He then chased it with a T16 at TPC San Antonio and a T52 at Eagle Point. Shelton is playing on a sponsor exemption this week in Dallas.
Shelton’s ball-striking is tremendous. Former Walker Cup teammate Lee McCoy nicknamed Shelton “Xbox” because “he makes the swing look so easy.” Watching Shelton on the range is indeed like watching a video game. He’s a name that we’re watching closely now and will put on our list of talented up and comers. He likely won’t win here but at this price he’s worth a wager and he’s also worth your while in DFS because he’s cheap. Therefore, we’ll invest with confidence before the expectations rise and the sale ends. Man, is this kid good (Risking 0.2 units to win 35 units).
Billy Hurley III 125-1
There are some players who, as we know, perform better on some surfaces more than they do others, and so when we look at Billy Hurley’s seasonal form, we must take into consideration this is a guy who loves putting on Bentgrass. He’s an excellent value pick too thanks to his consistency: BHIII has made 11 cuts from 16 starts, with six of those being top-30s. The picks are clearly the T15 at Shriners and T8 at the Wells Fargo just a couple of weeks ago. Three rounds of par or better at THE PLAYERS confirms that Hurley is striking the ball rather nicely at present, and for a player whose reasonable return at Four Seasons reads 41-MC-16 that’s good enough for us to pull the trigger. He has some nice metrics to bring with him to this event also that includes SG: Putting: 27th, Total Birdies: 36th and SG: Approach the Green: 42nd. At these odds, you could do a lot worse (risking 0.2 units to win 25 units).
Head-to-head matchup:
B. Hurley III -120 over B. Horschel Leishman (Risking 1.2 units to win 1).
Byeong Hun An -120 over Ian Poulter
Hun An is among the leaders in strokes gained -off-the-tee and strokes gained -tee-to-green at 21st in both. That quantifies his muscle and aggressive eye. An is coming off a T8 at Eagle Point in last start. Not only is Hun An the superior golfer in this head-to-head but this is such a great spot to fade Ian Poulter.
Post-PLAYERS drama aside, Poulter’s two-way T2 opened up several doors, so in that context, it was mission accomplished. The optimist will think that he makes this week's start on house money and riding the euphoria of last week's success, but we see it as a huge letdown week, as Poulter can now let out a sigh of relief. What’s more, he's missed the cut in his last two trips to TPC Four Seasons, which were seven years apart to boot. If he makes the cut, we’ll be shocked and if he beats Hun An, we’ll be double shocked (Risking 2.4 units to win 2).
Ray Monohan
Penguins vs. Senators
Play: Penguins -128
The Penguins and the Senators match up on Wednesday night, and the Penguins price has gone down and gives you a ton of value in this one. The game one loss for the Penguins woke them up, and although they only one game two 1-0 they were the better team most of the night.
Marc-Andre Fleury has been playing really well in net for the Penguins and I expect that to continue in this game. In the first two games he has only given up two goals while making 48 saves. Some trends to note. Penguins are 15-7 in the last 22 meetings. Penguins are 7-3 in their last 10 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game.
Dennis Macklin
Penguins vs. Senators
Play: Under 5
There were a four total goals scored in the first two games games of the series and since an 8-5 loss at the Igloo back on December 5th, the Sens are 3-1 against the Penguins allowing just one goal in each game. I've said before that Ottawa, at least in my eyes, is reminiscent of the good Devil teams of 15-20 years ago with their dump and chase style and defensive trap where they pick offenses at center ice and minimizes odd-man rushes and breakways. Both goaltenders are playing great and this one looks to have 2-1, 3-1, 2-0 written all over it. Grab the plus money on the Under and we're still protected by the push.