NBA betting trends, odds and predictions for Wednesday, May 17th, 2017 from various handicappers and websites
NBA Knowledge
Quick turnaround for Celtics, who won Game 7 here against the Wizards two nites ago. Boston is 8-5 in playoffs, 5-2 at home- over is 5-2 in their last seven games. Cleveland is 8-0 in playoffs, 4-0 on road (3-0-1 vs spread)- they haven’t played in 11 days- which is worse? Quick turnaround or 11 days without a game? Over is 6-2 in Cleveland’s last eight games. Cavaliers won eight of last ten games with Boston, winning four of last five in this building; under is 7-3 in last ten series games. Cavs are 3-1 vs Boston this season, with wins by 6-6-23 points.
Armadillosports.com
Wednesday’s NBA Eastern Conference Finals Betting Preview
Covers.com
Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics (+4, 219.5)
The Cleveland Cavaliers have been scorching hot in the playoffs with eight straight victories and aim to keep the streak alive when they visit the Boston Celtics in Wednesday's opener of the Eastern Conference finals. Cleveland had few issues sweeping both the Indiana Pacers and Toronto Raptors while the Celtics had to fight through a tough seven-game series against the Washington Wizards that ended on Monday night.
The second-seeded Cavaliers haven't played since May 7 and will continue to ride the red-hot duo of forward LeBron James (34.4 average) and point guard Kyrie Irving (23.8 ) as they look to shake off the rust. "I know our team is anxious to play," Cleveland coach Tyronn Lue told reporters. "(Kyle) Korver and LeBron, those guys are talking about it, so our guys are just anxious to play and ready to go out there." Top-seeded Boston posted a 115-105 victory over Washington to reach the conference finals for the first time since 2012 and will be huge underdogs against the Cavaliers. "We gotta get ready for the defending champs, we know that," standout point guard Isaiah Thomas said after Monday's game. "The good thing about it is we've got homecourt advantage, so we're going to be ready on Wednesday to try to take care of home court. We know it's going to be tough but at this point, anything can happen, we really believe that."
LINE HISTORY: The Cavaliers opened as three-point road favorites for Game 1 and the public didn't think that was enough points, forcing the books to bump the number up to 4. The total hit the board at 219.5 and has been steady since its release Monday night.
INJURY REPORT:
Cavaliers - C E. Tavares (Out For Season, hand), PG K. Felder (Out Indefinitely, leg).
Celtics - No injuries to report.
ABOUT THE CAVALIERS (59-31 SU, 41-45-4 ATS, 53-36-1 O/U): Coach Tyronn Lue has vowed to get power forward Kevin Love more involved in this series after he averaged just 13.8 points and 9.1 rebounds during the first two rounds. Love averaged 23.7 points and 13 rebounds in three games against the Celtics this season and Lue feels the matchups will be more in Love's favor in this round, but Love maintains he's not overly concerned. "I told him, 'We're 8-0. I don't mind it,'" Love recently told reporters. "If I get five or six shots, if I get 15 shots, it don't matter to me, as long as we win. I've been in this position before; we're having success, so I'm happy. Feel good."
ABOUT THE CELTICS (61-34 SU, 49-44-2 ATS, 47-44-4 O/U): Thomas has carried Boston through most of the playoffs in an inspiring manner considering the tragic death of his sister to go along with numerous minor bumps and bruises. Despite the hardships, Thomas is averaging 25.4 points in the postseason - he had 29 points, 12 assists and just two turnovers in the Game 7 win over the Wizards - and has four 30-point outings. "He's dealing with more stuff, physically, and has obviously gone through what he went through at the start of the playoffs," Celtics coach Brad Stevens said after the win over Washington. "It's pretty remarkable."
TRENDS:
* Cavaliers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
* Celtics are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
* Under is 8-2 in Cavaliers last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
* Over is 7-0-1 in Celtics last 8 home games.
* Under is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings in Boston.
CONSENSUS: 68 percent of users are siding with the road favorite Cavaliers and Under is picking up 53 percent of the totals wagers.
Game 1 - Cavaliers at Celtics
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
Cleveland at Boston
2016-17 Regular Season (Cavaliers 3-1)
Nov. 3 Celtics at Cavaliers (-10.5) 128-122 (Over 207)
Dec. 29 Celtics at Cavaliers (-6) 124-118 (Over 207)
Mar. 1 Cavaliers at Celtics (-2) 103-99 (Under 224)
Apr. 5 Cavaliers (+4) at Celtics 114-91 (Under 222)
LeBron James is riding an incredible streak of Eastern Conference championships by playing in the last seven NBA Finals. James and the Cavaliers have yet to lose a playoff game in this postseason after sweeping through the Pacers and Raptors, but Cleveland will have to knock out Boston in the Eastern Conference Finals without the benefit of home-court advantage.
Boston (53-29) finished two games ahead of Cleveland in the regular season to wrap up the top seed and set themselves up for home-court against the defending champions if they were to meet in the East Finals. The Celtics dug themselves a 2-0 hole in the opening round against the Bulls before beating Chicago in four straight games, which included three victories at the United Center. Boston needed seven games to eliminate Washington in the conference semifinals as not once did the road team come out victorious.
The Cavaliers were actually tested more in the opening round sweep against Indiana than they were in the second round against Toronto. Cleveland failed to cover in the first two wins at home, while needing to overcome a 25-point deficit in a 106-102 Game 3 triumph at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. Tyronn Lue’s club needed six games to eliminate Toronto in the conference finals in 2016, but the Cavs cruised to a four-game sweep with two of those wins coming by 21 points or more.
James continues to play at a high level for the Cavaliers, who are seeking a third straight NBA Finals appearance after last June’s incredible rally from 3-1 down to stun the Warriors for the franchise’s first title. James is averaging 34.4 points per game, which is eight points higher than last year’s average in the postseason, while Kyrie Irving is nearly mirroring his numbers from the 2016 championship run (25.2 ppg) by scoring 23.8 ppg through Cleveland’s first eight victories.
Isaiah Thomas has gone from nice NBA player early in his career to a legitimate superstar since his first season in Boston in 2015-16. The diminutive point guard averaged a career-high 28.9 ppg in the regular season, while posting an incredible 53-point effort in a Game 2 overtime victory over Washington in the conference semifinals. Thomas helped carry Boston to a 115-105 win in Game 7 over the Wizards by scoring 29 points and dishing out 12 assists to lead the C’s to their first conference finals appearance since 2012 against Miami.
The Cavaliers captured the season series with the Celtics by taking three of four matchups. Cleveland won the first two meetings at Quicken Loans Arena, as the Cavs hung on to beat the Celtics on November 3 by a 128-122 count. Boston outscored Cleveland by 11 points in the fourth quarter to pick up a cover as 10½-point underdogs, but James was too much for the Celtics by scoring 30 points and collecting 12 assists.
In late December, Kevin Love put together one of his best games of the season with 30 points and 15 rebounds to lead Cleveland to a 124-118 triumph as six-point favorites. Both teams shot over 50% from the floor, while Thomas topped the 30-point mark for the second time against Cleveland. However, Thomas shot 2-of-11 from three-point range in those two defeats, while converting on all 27 free throw attempts.
Boston broke through at home on March 1 with a 103-99 win as 1½-point favorites, as the Celtics limited the Cavaliers to 40% shooting from the floor. Thomas led Boston with a game-high 31 points as the Celtics snapped a three-game home losing streak to Cleveland that included a pair of defeats in the 2015 playoffs.
Cleveland rebounded in the final matchup at TD Garden on April 5 as the Cavaliers jumped out to a 15-point halftime lead and cruised to a 114-91 rout as four-point underdogs. Thomas struggled again from downtown by hitting only 1-of-8 three-point attempts, while James ran all over the Celtics for 36 points on 14-of-22 shooting.
From a pointspread perspective, the Celtics have caught fire since dropping the first two games to the Bulls in the opening round by posting a terrific 9-2 ATS record the last 11 contests. Brad Stevens’ squad has cashed in each of their past five home games, while flipping to a home underdog for the first time in the playoffs in Game 1.
Like Boston, Cleveland failed to cash in its first two playoff contests, but the Cavaliers are riding a 5-0-1 ATS run the past six games. Since James returned to Cleveland in 2014, the Cavs are 1-2 SU/ATS in playoff openers on the road as both losses came at Golden State in the Finals.
The Celtics and Cavaliers hooked up in the playoffs in 2015 as Cleveland pulled off a four-game sweep in the opening round of the 40-42 Boston club. After winning the opening game by 13 points, each of the final three victories came by exactly eight points apiece, while Boston was limited to 95 points or fewer in the last three losses.
The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened the total for Game 1 at 219½ and the number has been pushed up to 220 as of Tuesday evening.
VegasInsider.com NBA analyst Chris David provides his thoughts on the total for opener.
“If you’ve been betting the ‘over’ in this year’s playoffs, then accept our congratulations! The high side has connected at a 58 percent clip in the postseason and that number spiked up in the conference semifinals as 14 of the 21 (67%) games went ‘over’ the number. The oddsmakers aren’t expecting things to slow down in this series and it should be known that there hasn’t been a total this high in the conference finals since the Suns and Lakers were running and gunning in the 2010 playoffs,” said David.
“Based on what we’ve seen from both teams, the opening number seems fair and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it go higher throughout the series. The new-look NBA relies heavily on 3-point shooting and both the Celtics (35.1) and Cavaliers (33.1) haven’t shied away from that trend. It’s arguable that the long break between series could hurt Cleveland, especially because they couldn’t miss (43.4%) from downtown in its first eight playoff games.”
“Cleveland has watched the ‘over’ go 6-2 in the playoffs and it will be facing a Boston team that’s watched the ‘over’ go 6-1 in seven games played at TD Garden in the playoffs. The Celtics offense is in great form (122.5 PPG) and they’ll be facing a Cavaliers defense that has looked suspect (104.9 PPG) this season. If the officials help out on Wednesday with their whistles, bettors might be cashing the ‘over’ early.”
Cleveland took care of its business as a short road favorite this season by going 11-3 both SU and ATS and that includes two wins in the playoffs against Indiana and Toronto. Meanwhile, Boston struggled as a home underdog by compiling a 1-2 mark this season. If you go back to the 2015-16 season, the Celtics went 2-6 SU and 2-5-1 ATS.
VegasInsider.com NBA expert Tony Mejia said to keep an eye on the point guards, "Odds are great that the paint will be open since there are so many big men in this series roam out to the perimeter, which means Irving and Thomas should both have room to work and get into the lane. As a result, look for the pace to be a little faster and scores to be higher than they normally are in the Eastern Conference finals."
The Cavaliers enter this series as heavy -900 favorites (Bet $900 to win $100) at the Westgate to advance to their third straight NBA Finals. In spite of owning the top-seed and home-court advantage, the Celtics are listed as a +600 underdog (Bet $100 to win $600) to knock off the Cavaliers four times.
Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals tips off on Wednesday at 8:30 p.m. from TD Garden and can be seen on TNT.
Celtics host Cavs in Game 1
By: Sam Chase
StatFox.com
Despite their No. 1 seeding, few believe the Celtics can take four games from Cleveland.
The Boston Celtics are riding high entering the Eastern Conference Finals, having slugged out a 115-105 victory over the Washington Wizards in Game 7 of their second-round series at home on Monday night (BOS -4.5). Some dared question whether the Celtics were the worst No. 1 seed in NBA history after they finished the regular season atop the East at 53-29, and they have at least cleared that low bar with series victories over the Chicago and Washington. Now, though, they face the real test: a conference finals showdown with the Cleveland Cavaliers. A late-season swoon dropped the Cavs to the No. 2 seed in the East, but dominating sweeps over the Indiana Pacers and Toronto Raptors further cemented them as heavy favorites to win the conference. For many, Boston’s real test in this series is whether they can win even one game—they’ll take their first shot at it in Game 1 on Wednesday night in the friendly confines of the TD Garden. Since 1996, road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are outscoring their opponents by at least 3 PPG on the season (CLE) are 146-82 ATS after scoring 105 points or more in three straight games. Over the last five seasons, games involving a home team looking to revenge a blowout loss of 20 points or more—Boston lost 114-91 to Cleveland on April 5—are 80-41 Over against totals of 210 or more.
It’s not an exaggeration to say that SF LeBron James’ (34.4 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 7.1 APG, 2.1 SPG, 1.5 BPG; all player stats are for playoffs) performance in these playoffs has affected the way that at least a handful of other teams will approach their futures, including the Celtics. With James looking better than ever at the age of 32—and showing no signs of slowing down—he appears primed to continue to own the East for years to come. In his two Game 1s this postseason, he has averaged 33.5 PPG, 8.0 RPG and 8.5 APG. The fact that he (and the rest of the Cavs) enters this series well rested doesn’t bode well for Boston, as LeBron James doesn’t get rusty. PG Kyrie Irving (23.8 PPG, 5.8 APG, 1.5 SPG) taught us last year that, in addition to being supremely talented, he embraces the big moment in the playoffs. While no one can really guard LeBron, the Celtics have a couple excellent defenders that they hope will frustrate Irving; he may therefore be doing more passing than usual. When he’s hot, though, no one can stop him. PF Kevin Love (13.8 PPG, 9.1 RPG) has been mostly quiet these playoffs with low scoring totals, but his rebounding and three-point shooting (40.5%) show that he’s filling his role well. SG J.R. Smith (6.4 PPG) and C Tristan Thompson (7.8 PPG) join those three in the starting lineup, while PF Channing Frye (8.8 PPG, 55.2 3P%) and SG Kyle Korver (7.8 PPG, 48.5 3P%) spread the floor off the bench.
With James on the court, Celtics coaches are likely spending more time game planning for defense than for offense as Game 1 approaches. Rookie SF Jaylen Brown (3.3 PPG) has the best combination of size, strength, quickness and speed to keep up with him, even if he’s not Boston’s best defender from a technique perspective. PG Marcus Smart (8.0 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 4.6 APG, 1.5 SPG, 1.0 BPG) and SF Jae Crowder (13.2 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 1.2 SPG) will also likely spend time on him. Smart was brilliant for Boston on Monday on both ends of the court, and they’ll need the best version of him to compete with the Cavs. It would also be huge for the Celtics if Crowder could recover some of his accuracy from deep: He’s shooting 27.8% on threes in the postseason after shooting 39.8% in the regular season. Smart and SG Avery Bradley (15.8 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 1.5 SPG) will split time on Irving, with Bradley being possibly the best-equipped guy to guard him in the entire league. He also averaged 28 PPG in Games 5 and 6 against Washington, and he should be aggressive offensively against a defensively-challenged Cleveland backcourt. Obviously, though, PG Isaiah Thomas (25.4 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 6.5 APG) is the guy to watch. He was very up-and-down in terms of scoring against Washington, scoring as many as 53 points and as few as 13 in the series. He had 29 and 12 assists in a strong Game 7. C Al Horford (16.1 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 5.8 APG) has looked like an All-Star in these playoffs, and C Kelly Olynyk (9.7 PPG) looked like an MVP with 26 shocking points in Game 7 against Washington.