Free Picks and Premium Service Plays for Wednesday, November 2nd, 2016 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
Scott Spreitzer
Portland at Phoenix
Play: Portland -3
Portland ran into a buzzsaw on Tuesday as Golden State shot a blistering 56.2 percent and beat the Trail Blazers 127-104. Damian Lillard led the Blazers with 31 points and C.J. McCollum added 16 points and Portland kept it within range in the first half. However, Stephen Curry exploded for 23 points in the third quarter and the Warriors never looked back. Portland figures to have an easier time tonight against the 0-4 Phoenix Suns, who are shooting just 43.5 percent this season and 26.8 percent from three-point range. The Suns lost 116-98 at the Clippers on Monday while making just 35 of 84 shots while the Clippers shot 50 percent. Brandon Knight was the leading scorer for the Suns with 18 points. Portland has covered the spread five of the last seven meetings and won its only road game so far this season with a last-minute comeback at Denver.
Power Sports
New Orleans vs. Memphis
Pick: New Orleans
Minnesota, Utah, Milwaukee & Golden State all won & covered their games Tuesday night. That leaves only two NBA teams winless at the betting window. One is New Orleans at 0-4 (the other is Washington). Slow starts are nothing new under Alvin Gentry; the Pelicans opened last year 0-6 SU and ATS. But I'll grab the pts here.
Last night, NO lost 117-113 (as 3.5-pt favorites) at home to Milwaukee. It was a game the Pelicans lead going into the fourth quarter. How do you not feel for Anthony Davis at this point? It was the third time he's scored 35+ pts this year (in addition to 15 rebounds, three blocks, three steals), yet his teammates aren't giving much. The team shot 9 of 26 from three-point range. Despite the presence of Davis, the Pelicans were dominated in the paint last night, getting outscored 58-38.
The opponent here will be Memphis, a team I expect will regress in 2016-17. The Grizz enter this game at 2-2 SU, but were hammered last night in Minnesota, losing 116-80. Note that HC David Fizdale effective "waved the white flag" in that one by deciding to rest both Mike Conley and Marc Gasol in the front end of a back to back. Still, that's no excuse for allowing 55% shooting overall, including 12 of 20 from three-point range. The Grizzlies were a horrific 4 of 24 from behind the arc. Again, I like the points in this one.
Zack Cimini
Toronto vs. Washington
Pick: Washington
The Raptors have come out and performed to high standards off of last year's Eastern Conference Finals run.
On Monday they struggled to protect a home lead against the Nuggets as their defense waned.
The Wizards on the other hand look to be struggling to get their starting five on the same page, and faltered to the Grizzles in overtime in their last game.
Yet, this is a solid buy opportunity to foresee the Wizards protecting their home court in a regrouping effort.
Jim Feist
Bulls at Celtics
Pick: Over
Chicago is out of the gate fast, going 3-0 and scoring in bunches. So far, the Bulls have averaged 113.7 ppg (2nd in the NBA) over their three games. The Bulls opened the season against the Celtics, winning 105-99 in Chicago. Now they visit Boston, where the Celtics have started 2-1 and are averaging 108.3 ppg. However, the Celtics have also giving up 106.7 ppg this season. The Over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings between these clubs and 19-7 Over in the last 26 in Boston. I like the high flying Bulls to continue to put up points.
Joe Williams
Cubs at Indians
Play: Cubs
The Cubs have won four of their past five on the road, and momentum is on their side heading into the decisive Game 7 as they look to snap a 108-year drought and take home a World Series trophy for the first time since 1908. The Cubs have erased a 3-1 series deficit to pull even and they have an awful lot of momentum on their side.
Wunderdog
Pittsburgh @ Anaheim
Pick: Under 5.5
Anaheim comes off a 4-0 win at Los Angeles for its third UNDER in four games. The Ducks were shut out 4-0 by Columbus the game before and they are #20 in the league, scoring an average of just 2.50 goals per game. Pittsburgh is #16 with 2.67 goals per contest. Matt Murray will make his first start in goal for the Penguins after recovering from a broken hand. The Ducks have allowed only 11 goals their last six games and John Gibson has started five of those games. Gibson has a .919 save percentage and is 4-3-2 on the season with a 2.25 goals-against average. Five of the last seven meetings in Anaheim have gone UNDER and Anaheim is 5-2-2 UNDER its last nine games overall.
Bob Balfe
Cubs -145
I am not a big fan of laying this much on a favorite, but the runs have been hard to come by in this series and it’s asking too much from either team to win by 2 runs. Tomlin has given up a lot of home runs this year and the wind is blowing out tonight. I believe we will see more offense in this game than any of the other games. Chicago being the road team is actually the best thing that can happen to them to get the pressure of being at Wrigley off their backs. This is going to be a battle and I think we have 7 games in the cards for this series.
Brandon Lee
Cubs -115
The Cubs have firmly took hold of the momentum and I look for them to carry it over to a win in Game 7. So much is being made about the pitching for Cleveland, but I think the Cubs offense is going to prove to be the difference here. Chicago got much better swings on Kluber in Game 4 than they did in Game 1, but just missed out on some opportunities. They had a runner on in 5 of the 6 innings Kluber went in Game 4. I also don't think we are hearing enough here about Hendricks, who has allowed just 3 runs in 20 2/3 innings in the postseason. It's also worth keeping in mind he was an afterthought in Game 6 in the NLDS against Kershaw and he pitched the game of his life, allowing just 2 hits over 7 1/3 scoreless innings.
Sean Murphy
Chicago at Boston
Play: Boston -3½
We won with the Bulls in this same matchup last week, but that was in the role of home underdog, not to mention a strong motivational spot with it being their home opener. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Celtics as they aim to keep it rolling off a win in Charlotte.
Boston came into this season with fairly lofty expectations, especially given how they have struggled in recent years. The C's are no longer in the midst of a youth movement and this certainly looks like a year for them to make a move in the East.
I like the way this one sets up for Boston from a motivational standpoint as they try to get back at the Bulls after a poor showing last week. The Celtics got off to a slow start in that contest and never really recovered. I expect to see a far more complete effort tonight.
Chicago is off to a perfect 3-0 start, but what else should we have expected? Sure, the opener against Boston was tough but after that came another home game against the Pacers - who were in a back-to-back spot - and a road game in Brooklyn. The Bulls 3-0 start shouldn't come as a big surprise really.
Chicago's depth will be tested a little bit now with Michael Carter-Williams sidelined and Doug McDermott questionable to play due to a concussion suffered on Monday. Even if McDermott can go, his minutes could be limited.
Alex Smart
Red Wings vs. Flyers
Play: Flyers -124
The Detroit Red Wings have not won a regular season game in Philadelphia in nearly 20 years and are 0-11 L/11 last 11 visits to the City of Brothery Love.After winning six in a row, the Red Wings (6-4-0) are coming off back-to-back losses to Boston and Florida and have mustered just two goals in the losses as they fall back down to earth with a thud..PHILADELPHIA is 10-2 ATS L12 when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) in the first half of the season dating back to last season.
Brandon Shively
Thunder vs. Clippers
Play: Clippers -7
I like the Clippers here. The Thunder boast a 3-0 record but those are wins against bottom feeders such as the 76ers, Lakers, and Suns. This is a spot for the Clippers where they want to win as they travel on the road at Memphis then San Antonio to finish a five game in 7 night stretch.
After the Thunder took three of four games from the Clippers last year, I look for them to stay focused throughout and count on their defense that has carried them through their first three games along with better communication and trust as a team.
Westbrook is going to get his. We already know that. But in a game like this, the Thunder will need to make defensive stops and Westbrook and Oladipo have not showed me much on the defensive side of the ball this season. Some of that is on account of Westbrook going so hard on offense that he lacks that same amount of energy on the other side of the ball.
The Thunder usually have an edge down low rebounding but that is negated tonight with DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin of the Clippers.
Look for the Clippers to finish their 3 game homestand on a winning note pulling away late with a 11-12 point victory.
Jimmy Boyd
Grizzlies -6
I think the value here is with Memphis laying a relatively small number at home against a bad Pelicans team. While both teams are playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, it's only going to feel like it for New Orleans. The Grizzlies essentially punted last night's game against Minnesota, resting both Mike Conley and Marc Gasol. The only player on Memphis to play more than 30 mins was reserve Andrew Harrison.
On the flip side of this, the Pelicans played in a up-tempo game at home against the Bucks, which they lost 113-117. All 5 starters for New Orleans logged over 35 minutes, as their reserves only 56 minutes. It's hard enough for a good team to play well on the road in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set, and the Pelicans are far from a good team. I just don't see New Orleans being able to come out with the energy needed to keep this one close. Keep in mind the Pelicans are 0-4 and that's with 3 of their first 4 coming at home.
New Orleans is just 7-18 ATS in their last 25 after playing in a game with a combined score of 225 or more points, while the Grizzlies are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 after allowing 105 or more points and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 home games off a road loss.
Jack Jones
Dallas Mavericks +4
We'll look to fade the Utah Jazz here tonight. We were on them last night as they went into San Antonio and picked up an impressive 106-91 road victory as 10.5-point dogs. But we're going the other way here tonight for a couple of reasons.
This will now be the second of a back-to-back for the Jazz and their 3rd game in 4 days. There's also no question that this is a letdown spot following such a big win over the Spurs, who were 4-0 going into that game.
I also think the Mavericks will be hungry for their first victory of the season after opening 0-3. But they only lost by 1 at Houston and in overtime at Indiana in their two road games and easily could have won either. The Mavs come into this game on two days' rest, so they will be the fresher team.
Plays on any team (DALLAS) - after two or more consecutive losses, first six games of the season, playoff team from last season who lost six or more of their last eight games are 37-13 (74%) since 1996. The Mavericks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Dallas is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 road games. The Mavs are 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings, including 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to Utah.
Dave Price
Washington Wizards +1
The Washington Wizards are hungry for their first win of the season. They have opened 0-2 with road losses to both the Hawks and Grizzlies. They blew an 8-point lead late against Memphis and were outscored 33-19 in the fourth quarter of a 114-99 loss at Atlanta. But now they head home for their first home game and have had two days off in between games to get ready for the Toronto Raptors. This will be the Raptors' first road game of the season tonight. The Raptors are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games. Washington is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 home games. The Wizards are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games playing on 2 days rest. Toronto is 2-7 ATS in the last 9 meetings.