Free Picks and Premium Service Plays for Tuesday, November 1st, 2016 from some of the nations best and worst handicappers.
Dave Cokin
St Louis vs. New York
Play: New York -130
The Rangers shouldn’t need any pre-game speeches tonight. The Broadway Blues were the better team when they faced off at St. Louis back in the NHL’s opening week, but the Blues skated away with the 3-2 win. Rematch time tonight, and I much prefeer the home team’s current form.
The Blues have been held to one goal in five of their last six games, and they’re running into a hot offensive team at MSG tonight. New York’s offense is sizzling and they’re playing outstanding hockey at home in the early going.
The Blues will look to muck it up and slow the hosts down tonight, but I’d rather have the team that’s finishing off their plays as opposed to one that’s mired in a scoring slump. There’s a bit of a tariff involved here, but I’m going ahead and laying the price with the favored Rangers tonight.
Rob Vinciletti
Cubs vs. Indians
Play: Cubs -152
The Cubs are 5-0 as a road favorite off a home win scoring 4 or less runs and have won 17 of 23 after a day off. The Cubs average 5 runs per game on the road and have Arietta on the mound and hi numbers are better overall than Cleveland starter Tomlin. Home dogs off a road dog loss at +200 or more are 0-7 if they scored 2 or less runs and take on a team off a home win.. Game 6 home teams in this exact sequence all time are just 2-2.
Scott Spreitzer
Knicks vs. Pistons
Play: Pistons -4
Detroit forgot to play defense in its season-opening loss at Toronto, but the Pistons have clamped down since with two blowout wins over Orlando and Milwaukee while allowing no more than 83 points in either game. The Pistons held the Bucks to 39.1 percent shooting and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope regained his shooting touch with a team-leading 21 points while Andre Drummond added 20 points and pulled down 23 rebounds. New York bounced back with a win against Memphis after losing by 29 at Cleveland. The Knicks shot 52.6 percent against the Grizzlies after shooting 36.8 percent against the Cavaliers. Kristaps Porzingis led the Knicks with 21 points and Joakim Noah had 10 rebounds and seven assists. It's unlikely New York will shoot nearly as high a percentage against the Detroit defense and the Pistons were 9-3-1 ATS last season when their opponent scored 100-plus points its previous game and 1-0 ATS this season.
Sean Murphy
Orlando at Philadelphia
Play: Orlando -4½
Both of these teams check in winless on the campaign but I believe it’s the Magic that are far better positioned to pick up their first victory on Tuesday night.
Orlando hasn’t faced an easy schedule thus far, hosting the Heat in its home opener before hitting the road to take on the Pistons and Cavs. Credit the Magic for battling hard in a cover but not win scenario on Sunday in Cleveland.
The Magic made moves in the offseason to turn themselves into a contender in the East in short order and I still believe they can ascend the standings to become at least a middle-of-the-pack playoff team. But this is the type of game they need to win – even if it is still very early in the season.
The 76ers are in the midst of a long rebuild and based on their first two games, it doesn’t appear that they’re much further along in their progression. They’re a considerable home underdog for a reason here. I don’t believe they’ll be able to keep up with the Magic for four quarters on Tuesday.
Mike Lundin
Knicks vs. Pistons
Play: Pistons -4
The Detroit Pistons will be looking to stay perfect home at the Palace of Auburn Hills as they host the New York Knicks Tuesday night. The Pistons opened the season with a road loss at Toronto but have won and covered the spread in back-to-back home victories against Orlando and Milwaukee since. The Pistons' have played exceptionally well on D through those two games, allowing an average of just 82.5 points.
While the Knickerbockers have made some interesting offseason acquisitions, the team is still very much a work in progress and I don't trust them just yet. The favorite is 13-4 ATS in the last 17 head-to-head meetings, and this looks like a good spot to back the Pistons.
Bob Harvey
Chicago vs. Cleveland
Play: Cleveland +145
The Cubs staved off elimination with a 3-2 victory in Game 5 as Aroldis Chapman recorded an eight out save. Jon Lester picked up the win while Kris Bryant slugged his first home run of the series. However the Indians still own a 3-2 lead and have two chances—at home—to wrap up their first title since 1948.
Game 6 features an intriguing pitching matchup with Jake Arrieta (1-1, 3.78 ERA) vs. Tomlin (2-0, 1.76) Arrieta took a no-hitter into the sixth inning in Game 2 at Cleveland and ended up with the win, his first of the postseason. Surprisingly though, Tomlin has had the better postseason of the two.He allowed two hits in 4 2/3 scoreless innings in Game but didn’t figure in the decision. Tomlin has surrendered two or fewer runs in each of his last eight appearances going back to the regular season. Tomlin is going on three days' rest but only threw 58 pitches in Game 3.
Cleveland is 11-1 to the UNDER in its last 12 playoff games and 8-1-2 to the UNDER in its last 11 home postseason games.
THE UNDER IS 4-1 in the first five games of the series and is 8-2 to the low side in the last in the last 10 meetings.
Mostly clear skies and temps in the upper 50’s are on tap for Cleveland tonight.
Bottom line on Game 6: The starters will get the job done, the bullpens will be lights out and a clutch hit will decide it. Let’s plan on a low- scoring game and WS title for the Tribe.
Power Sports
Sacramento vs. Miami
Pick: Sacramento
Second game of a back to back for the Kings here as they came up short Monday in Atlanta. The Hawks got them, 106-95, just covering the seven point spread via a late flurry. Discouraging for Sac-town is the fact they entered the 4Q w/ a two-point lead. They even outshot the Hawks, both overall & from 3-pt range.
What went wrong last night? Well, while Atlanta didn't shoot the ball as well, they simply shot it more times. Particularly from the FT line where they owned a massive 47-19 edge in attempts. The fact the Hawks made only 29 of those 47 attempts (Dwight Howard was 8 of 20) was irrelevant considering the sheer volume. That's going to be tough for any team to overcome, especially on the road.
Prior to the loss last night, the Kings had opened 2-1 w/ the one loss coming to San Antonio. Tonight is a drop in class as they face a Miami team that's dropped B2B games after an Opening Night win. Granted, the Kings have come out on the losing end 18 of the last 19 visits to South Beach. But this isn't the typical Heat team as the roster has been ravaged by departures. Center Hassan Whiteside battling cramps is a tough blow. I look for the road team to come in and probably pull off the SU win. Take the points.
Jim Feist
Jazz at Spurs
Pick: Under
These are two of the top defensive teams in the league. Utah opened a brief two-game road trip with an 88-75 loss to the Los Angeles Clippers on Sunday and didn't score more than 22 points in any of the quarters. Utah is on a 14-6 run under the total, 8-3-1 under on the road. The Jazz are struggling to establish an offensive rhythm with both small forward Gordon Hayward (broken finger) and backup guard Alec Burks (knee) sidelined. Utah is 34-16-1 under the total when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. San Antonio is outstanding on defense, especially at home in the Alamodome where they are on a 7-1 run under the total. And the Under is 21-10 in the Spurs last 31 games following a straight up win.
Bruce Marshall
Bowling Green at No Illinois
Play: Bowling Green +17
NIU has covered 3 of last 4 behind sr. QB Maddie's 328 ypg total offense in that run. BG's defense is last in the MAC at 35 ppg, but Falcon RS frosh QB Morgan has 724 YP & 8 TDP in last 2 games. BG historically strong road dog (63% last 41 in role). Looks like too many points for NIU to be laying in DeKalb.
Sleepyj
Columbus / Dallas Under 5.5
Columbus is struggling right now scoring the puck...IF it wasn't for the strong goalie play, the Bluejackets would have one of the worst records in the league...Columbus gets Bobrovsky in the net tonight and he she be ready to rock and roll...Stars don't have enough offense IMO to hit the road and put up enough on Bobrovsky to worry me much....Columbus is very good at killing the penalty, while Dallas isn't all that great. Niemi will get the start tonight and I'm thinking he rebounds off a pretty bad loss his last time out...I'm a bit surprised Columbus is only laying -120 in this one...I'll consider Columbus as well, but the under looks like the best wager in the game...Combined these teams have only about 2.4gpg...Not enough offense overall for me.
Stephen Nover
Buffalo +160
Devan Dubnyk is the hottest goalie in hockey, but the Sabres are a very live 'dog here at a great price.
It's short revenge for the Sabres, who lost 4-0 at home against the Wild last Thursday. The fans booed the Sabres in that contest, but the score was misleading in that Buffalo outshot Minnesota, 38-18, in that loss.
Dubnyk has been brilliant. Minnesota will have a huge goalie edge. However, the Wild also are dealing with multiple injuries. They either will be short-handed tonight, or have several inexperienced fill-ins. Due to injuries, illness and salary-cap related issues only 14 players practiced for Minnesota on Monday.
Right-winger Chris Stewart is expected to shake his illness and play for the Wild tonight, but Minnesota still won't have Zach Parise, Marco Scandella, Erik Haula and Zac Dalphe.
Dave Essler
N. Illinois -16
Northern Illinois lost Drew Hare earlier in the season. Then Sophomore Ryan Graham stepped in, but not up - so they turned to Anthony Maddie (a senior) who they seem to have improved week-to-week behind. Clearly they've got nothing to play for, which for them is highly unusual. But, under Maddie they beat Ball State on the road, then put up 30 points on Western Michigan on the road, and took CMY to triple overtime. So, they've got a ton of anger to get out, and it happens tonight against Bowling Green. Two reasons - one, they could conceivably win out and get six wins, and two - BGSU beat the living sh*t out of them in last years' MAC Championship Game. So yes, they've got lots of reasons to do this. Add to the fact that the total for this game is in the 70's, so if they're even close to that there's plenty of room to cover this number. I thought BGSU might be bolstered by a decent non-conference schedule, but they're not showing it and are winless in MAC play. They're (BGSU) 122nd in allowing third down conversions (there are 128 teams). They're 126th in turnover margin per game. And now they're on the road against a really (should be) angry team. It has the earmarks of a boatrace IMO.
David Banks
Western Michigan @ Ball State
Pick: Western Michigan -17.5
Broncos head coach P.J. Fleck has Western Michigan off to its best start ever and the school is ranked in the Top 25 for the first time in history. The No. 17 Broncos cannot lose sight of the goal of winning the MAC title and having an outside shot at the College Football Playoff and, at the very least, a New Year’s Six bowl bid.
They will take on a Ball State team that is 4-4 after losing to Akron last week. In that loss, the Cardinals gave up four second half touchdowns in a 35-25 defeat. Ball State’s offense is solid averaging over 440 yards of offense – 227 on the ground – per game. Running back James Gilbert has 987 yards and 11 touchdowns and QB Riley Neal has 1,700 yards passing and is the team’s second-leading rusher (314 yards). Neal has accounted for 13 total touchdowns.
Western Michigan is sixth in the nation in scoring. The Broncos are led by one of the nation’s best quarterbacks in senior Zach Terrell (1,995 yards, 20 TDs). Jarvion Franklin leads the ground game with 909 yards and seven touchdowns and WR Corey Davis (49 rec., 739 yds., 11 TDs) is the team’s go-to receiver. Surprisingly, Western Michigan is 19th in the country in scoring defense giving up just 19.3 points per game. That is an amazing stat playing in the score-happy MAC. A Broncos win puts Fleck and company one step closer to a season-ending showdown with Toledo, which will likely determine the winner of the MAC’s West Division.
Brandon Lee
Cubs -144
My money is on Jake Arrieta and the Cubs to avoid elimination once again and send this series to a Game 7. Chicago's offense seems to come alive whenever their backs are against the wall and they get a big bat back in the lineup with the series shifting back to Cleveland, as Kyle Schwarber is eligible to DH. Arrieta took a no hitter into the 6th inning of his first start in the World Series and I look for him to carry over that success into Game 6. I also think the Cubs offense has a much better time getting to Indians starter Josh Tomlin, who is not accustomed to pitching on short rest and simply won't be as sharp as he was in his previous start. Keep in mind Tomlin only had 1 strikeout. It's also worth noting the wind will be blowing out to straight center and that benefits the big bats of Chicago.