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MLB Betting News and Notes Friday, October 28th, 2016

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(@blade)
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MLB betting trends, odds and predictions for Friday, October 28th, 2016 from various handicappers and websites.

 
Posted : October 27, 2016 11:28 pm
(@blade)
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MLB Knowledge

Tomlin is 3-0, 2.50 in his last three starts, 2-0, 2.53 in two postseason starts. Cleveland won his last three road starts.

Lackey is 2-1, 3.79 in his last seven starts, 8-5, 3.26 in 22 postseason starts. Cubs won six of his last seven home starts.

Cubs are 8-4 in playoffs this year, 4-1 at home; they didn’t play the Indians this season. Obviously Chicago hasn’t been in World Series since 1945, Indians since 1997. Cleveland is 8-2 in playoffs, 3-1 on road.

Maddon is 25-26 as a playoff manager, 12-9 with Cubs. he lost 2008 World Series with Rays. Francona won World Series with Boston in 2004, 2007; he is 36-20 as a postseason manager.

Armadillosports.com

 
Posted : October 27, 2016 11:30 pm
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CLEVELAND (102 - 69) at CHICAGO CUBS (111 - 62) - 8:05 PM

JOSH TOMLIN (R) vs. KYLE HENDRICKS (R)

Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO CUBS are 32-9 (+16.1 Units) against the money line in home games in night games this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 39-15 (+13.1 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 35-14 (+16.0 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
HENDRICKS is 27-13 (+13.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
HENDRICKS is 18-6 (+12.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
CLEVELAND is 102-69 (+16.0 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
CLEVELAND is 10-2 (+9.8 Units) against the money line in October games this season.
CLEVELAND is 23-5 (+17.3 Units) against the money line when playing on Friday this season.
CLEVELAND is 13-3 (+10.3 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off this season.
CLEVELAND is 96-65 (+12.6 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
CLEVELAND is 72-40 (+19.5 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
CLEVELAND is 8-2 (+7.8 Units) against the money line in playoff games this season.
CLEVELAND is 42-30 (+13.3 Units) against the money line in road games after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 55-37 (+14.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
TOMLIN is 21-10 (+11.1 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TOMLIN is 11-5 (+7.4 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
TOMLIN is 20-10 (+9.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
TOMLIN is 20-8 (+12.5 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
TOMLIN is 17-5 (+11.8 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO CUBS are 1599-1685 (-257.9 Units) against the money line in all games since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 856-785 (-152.1 Units) against the money line in home games since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 177-205 (-51.6 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 1542-1598 (-232.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 1176-1250 (-194.2 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 772-827 (-186.2 Units) against the money line after a win since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO CUBS is 1-1 (+0.0 Units) against CLEVELAND this season
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+2.0 Units)

JOSH TOMLIN vs. CHICAGO CUBS since 1997
No recent starts.

KYLE HENDRICKS vs. CLEVELAND since 1997
No recent starts.

CLEVELAND vs. CHI CUBS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing Chi Cubs
Cleveland is 3-7 SU in their last 10 games when playing Chi Cubs
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chi Cubs's last 6 games when playing Cleveland
Chi Cubs are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games when playing Cleveland

Chicago Cubs at Cleveland
Tomlin: CHICAGO CUBS are 1-3 SU when playing in the 3rd game of a playoff series
Hendricks: CLEVELAND INDIANS are 13-3 SU when playing with a day off

StatFox Super Situations

CLEVELAND at CHICAGO CUBS
Play On - Road underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 (CLEVELAND) good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game on the season, playing on Friday 28-40 over the last 5 seasons. ( 41.2% | 15.1 units ) 3-23 this year. ( 11.5% | -16.8 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends

CLEVELAND at CHICAGO CUBS
CLEVELAND is 25-8 (+17.3 Units) against the money line after batting .240 or worse over a 10 game span this season. The average score was: CLEVELAND (4.7) , OPPONENT (2.8 )

 
Posted : October 27, 2016 11:33 pm
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Game 3 - Indians at Cubs
Sportsbook.ag

Cleveland Indians at Chicago Cubs

Sportsbook.ag Line: Cleveland +180, Chicago -200, Total: 8 (Over -110, Under -110)

Series Results - Tied 1-1
Game 1) Chicago at Cleveland (-110) - (6-0, Favorite - Under 6.5)
Game 2) Chicago (-155) at Cleveland - (5-1, Favorite - Under 7.5)

With the World Series tied at one game apiece, the Indians and Cubs head to Chicago for Game 3.

After getting shut out in Game 1, the Cubs (103-58) leveled the World Series at 1-1 with a 5-1 victory over the Indians (94-67) in Game 2.

Now, after two games in Cleveland, the series shifts to Wrigley Field, where the Cubs went 57-24 during the regular season and have gone 4-1 in the postseason.

The Cubs will have the clear pitching edge in Game 3. Kyle Hendricks (16-8, 2.13 ERA during the regular season) will start for the Cubs, and he’ll be opposed by RHP Josh Tomlin (13-9, 4.40 ERA during the regular season).

In three starts this postseason, Hendricks has pitched to 1.65 ERA in 16 1/3 innings.

Tomlin has won both of his postseason starts this month, allowing three earned runs in 10 2/3 innings (2.53 ERA).

Hendricks absolutely loves pitching in Chicago; he’s gone 10-3 with a 1.49 ERA at Wrigley this season (postseason included).

The Indians went just 41-39 on the road during the regular season, but have gone 3-1 away from Progressive Field in the postseason.

SS Francisco Lindor (13-for-38, 3 2B, 2 HR, 4 RBI) and 3B Jose Ramirez (9-for-34, 2 2B, RBI) went a combined 6-for-14 in the first two games, and C Roberto Perez (6-for-30, 2B, 3 HR, 6 RBI) hit a pair of homers in Game 1.

Manager Terry Francona needs his power hitters—1B Mike Napoli (7-for-34, 3 2B, HR, 2 RBI) and DH Carlos Santana (5-for-35, 2 HR, 2 RBI)—as well as 2B Jason Kipnis (6-for-39, 2B, 2 HR, 4 RBI) to produce in a lineup that doesn’t have a ton of punch.

OF Coco Crisp (3-for-18, 2 HR, 3 RBI) is the only player on the Indians’ roster who has faced Hendricks; he’s 0-for-3 against him. Tomlin has never faced the Cubs.

2B/LF Ben Zobrist (11-for-44, 4 2B, 3B, 4 RBI) has gone 5-for-8 with a double, a triple and an RBI through the first two games, and DH/OF Kyle Schwarber (3-for-7, 2B, 2 RBI) has gone 3-for-7 with a double and two RBIs. It remains to be seen how much Schwarber—who returned for the World Series after not playing since April 7—will play in Chicago.

Schwarber, who was Joe Maddon’s designated hitter in the first two games, really struggled in the outfield last season, and it’s unclear how he’ll be used in the National League park.

1F Javier Baez (15-for-47, 4 2B, HR, 7 RBI), 1B Anthony Rizzo (10-for-47, 3 2B, 2 HR, 6 RBI), 3B Kris Bryant (14-for-47, 5 2B, HR, 6 RBI) and CF Dexter Fowler (12-for-51, 4 2B, HR, 4 RBI) went a combined 5-for-33 with 11 strikeouts in the first two games, and if they continue to struggle the Cubs will have trouble scoring runs.

Only three Cubs have ever faced Tomlin: Zobrist is 2-for-19 against him with a double and a homer, C David Ross (3-for-14, 2B, HR, 2 RBI) is 0-for-1 and C Miguel Montero (1-for-9, HR, 4 RBI) is 2-for-5 with a double. Hendricks has never faced the Indians.

 
Posted : October 27, 2016 11:34 pm
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MLB Knowledge

Tomlin is 3-0, 2.50 in his last three starts, 2-0, 2.53 in two postseason starts. Cleveland won his last three road starts.

Lackey is 2-1, 3.79 in his last seven starts, 8-5, 3.26 in 22 postseason starts. Cubs won six of his last seven home starts.

Cubs are 8-4 in playoffs this year, 4-1 at home; they didn’t play the Indians this season. Obviously Chicago hasn’t been in World Series since 1945, Indians since 1997. Cleveland is 8-2 in playoffs, 3-1 on road.

Maddon is 25-26 as a playoff manager, 12-9 with Cubs. he lost 2008 World Series with Rays. Francona won World Series with Boston in 2004, 2007; he is 36-20 as a postseason manager.

Armadillosports.com

 
Posted : October 27, 2016 11:34 pm
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Blade / Cash

I haven't seen any World Series specific trends or articles that talk about home teams / away teams, game specific scenarios when tied at 1-1, overs and unders, etc. I feel like I see a lot of these around NBA finals and "zig-zag" theory, things like that.

Are these things out there? I feel like there has to be more info regarding WS.

Thanks
Tom

 
Posted : October 28, 2016 11:51 am
(@michael-cash)
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Between you and me and whoever is going to read this, trends are garbage. I know people like them but they are entertaining to me, not valuable. You can take anything and make a trend out of it and that is typically what happens.

Regarding your specific question, I am sure there are World Series trends out there but I can't tell you where to find them. Most sites don't bother with them because they are more useless than normal trends because every year is typically very different. Especially when you look at this year, two teams that haven't been in the World Series is most people's lifetimes. What kind of trends can you glean from this matchup? It's American League vs. National League? They both play outside?

Maybe Blade knows or maybe someone else will reply to this thread but unless you are just looking to satisfy your baseball curiosity nothing you find will offer much betting value

 
Posted : October 28, 2016 12:21 pm
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Haven't seen anything like those Tom, I'm sure you could find some of those but would be more for the analytic types and would likely be behind a pay wall. Like Cash I'm not a big follower of trends but know plenty are which is why I try to post the ones I see daily.

 
Posted : October 28, 2016 1:04 pm
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World Series Game 3 Betting Preview: Indians at Cubs
By Covers.com

Cleveland Indians at Chicago Cubs (-188, 8 )

The best starting pitcher led his team to victory in each of the first two games of the World Series with each team laying claim to the better ace once. The Chicago Cubs try to gain control of the series when they host the Cleveland Indians on Friday in the first World Series game at Wrigley Field since 1945.

Corey Kluber set a World Series record with eight strikeouts in the first three innings en route to a 6-0 Indians win in Tuesday's opener and Jake Arrieta took a no-hitter into the sixth Wednesday as the Cubs knotted the series at one win apiece with a 5-1 triumph. The most impressive offensive player in the first two games of the series won't even have a spot in the starting lineup for the next three contests as Chicago will leave Kyle Schwarber on the bench with a pinch-hitting role in the National League park. Schwarber, who sat out all but two games of the regular season after tearing ligaments in his knee in April, was added to the World Series roster and went 3-for-7 with a pair of RBIs and a run scored while serving as designated hitter in the Amercian League park."There's no being sad about it," Schwarber told reporters after it was announced Thursday that he was not medically cleared by doctors to play the field. "There's no nothing. I know my role, now, and I'm going to embrace it."

LINE HISTORY: The Cubs opened the first World Series game at Wrigley Field in 71 years as -185 favorites and have been bet up slightly to -188. The total for Game 3 has been set at 8. Check out the complete line history here.

WEATHER REPORT: The Windy City is going to live up to its name for Game 3. Hitters will be getting a boost with winds blowing between 17 and 20 miles per hour out to right-center field. Temperatures will hover around the low 60's for the game.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "This is now a best-of-five series and the adjusted betting odds give the Cubs a 68 percent chance of winning the World Series (tied 1-1), compared to just a 64 percent chance when the series began (0-0). Chicago had only a 50 percent chance of winning the title when they trailed 0-1. The Cubs have approximately a 20 percent chance of winning the next three games in a row to clinch the championship at home." - Covers Expert Steve Merril.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Indians RH Josh Tomlin (2-0, 2.53 ERA) vs. Cubs RH Kyle Hendricks (1-1, 1.65)

Tomlin delivered exactly what was asked of him in each of his first two postseason starts, allowing a total of three runs in 10 2/3 innings before handing things off to the team's dominant bullpen. The 32-year-old Texan served up 36 home runs in 174 innings during the regular season but has yet to yield a home run in the playoffs. Tomlin, who has never faced Chicago, was 2-1 with a 5.40 ERA in three interleague starts this season.

Hendricks outdueled Clayton Kershaw in the clinching game of the NLCS, scattering two hits and no walks over 7 1/3 scoreless innings while striking out six. Hendricks, the major-league ERA leader at 2.13, surrendered one run over 12 2/3 innings in two NLCS starts and went 9-2 with a 1.32 ERA at home during the regular season. The Dartmouth product, who is seeing Cleveland for the first time, was 2-1 with a 1.89 ERA in three interleague starts this season.

TRENDS:

* Indians are 6-1 in their last seven road games.
* Cubs are 4-1 in their last five playoff home games.
* Under is 10-1-1 in Indians' last 12 overall.
* Under is 4-0-1 in Hendricks' last five home starts.

CONSENSUS: Bettors are strongly behind the Cubs in Game 3, with 69 percent of wagers backing Chicago. When it comes to the total, 56 percent of wagers on are the Under.

 
Posted : October 28, 2016 1:06 pm
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Thanks for the response, much appreciated.

Definitely agree that most trends tend to be garbage, as it seems they have made a business out of secret "systems" and angles etc. (RE: Doug Upstone on Marc Lawrence Playbook app - "Akron v Buffalo - Bettors elevated the Bulls from +14.5 to +17.5 at home against Akron. While this seems like a lot of points on the Zips, I have a system going against Buffalo that is 26-6 ATS, where teams like them lose by 25.5 PPG on average). Buffalo won last night by 21 points. The STATFOX super situations also have some absurd stats (Hornets 9-0 when kemba walker takes more than 20 shots and had 2 or more steals).

Certain trends I do like - Orioles hitting 14 unders in a row. Diamondbacks hitting the over at 2:1 clip at home. Not betting on teams who have lost 3 or more in a row (baseball is a game of streaks). There is NBA trend I read that NBA champ teams are 1-8 ATS when playing on the road their second game of the season if the team they're playing won their first game. IE Toronto would be the play today at home against the Cavs. We shall see. (I enjoy fading Stephen A Smith b/c he's been wrong 5 years in a row).

 
Posted : October 28, 2016 1:56 pm
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Also any thoughts on collusion between the books and people pedaling picks about NE this weekend? The Vegas report on NFL posted Monday called out the Pats keep covering and that there will be "adjustments" to their lines as they've been a losing venture for books (same goes for Cleveland). I don't know if it's coincidence or not, but I've seen everyone and their mom on Pats to cover in Buffalo this weekend and I can't help but think Vegas makes a killing on that game squeezing points. Though I do refer to the expanded matchup report and the betting public is correct when moving the ML in Pats games 63.3% of the time the last 3 seasons. While there's been some line movement as it opened at 5.5 and went to +7 and has come back down to 5.5 or 6 .. probably won't know for sure till it closes. The Pats also pretty successful in revenging a loss as a favorite. I don't see the Bills losing at home by a TD in this game, but with most of the squad questionable .. maybe so.

 
Posted : October 28, 2016 3:56 pm
(@michael-cash)
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I just don't put a lot of stock in any trends that are more than a year old. When you take a step back and analyze year over year trends you will see what a lot of stuff that goes into those trends no longer holds true. Here are a couple things to consider, one is an example and one is a generalization.

We have trends that go back to 1992. Think about that for a minute. 1992. People love them because they are comprehensive but when you REALLY think about it, what value do those really offer when trying to compose a bet in 2016? Just take NFL, how many things have changed in the game itself since 1992? Field goals, kick-offs, overtime rules, etc etc. Not to mention the players. What a team did in 2001 with players that now own dry cleaning franchises has absolutely nothing to do with that is going to happen on this Sunday.

Consider something more recent, Kevin Durrant. How accurate/valuable do you think the OKC NBA trends are this season? This one move alone has tainted not only OKC trends but also GS trends and any other trend that would come into play where Durrant was a majority of the reason for the trend existing in the first place. Pre-season, post season, conference trends, etc.

Regarding your question about the Pats and Vegas I can tell you without question that there is nothing going on there but that doesn't mean there isn't something going on.

They will never admit it but offshore runs Vegas. Not in an old school mob sorta way but in a 21st century internet kinda way. Vegas is at the mercy of the moves that happen offshore. Most books offshore operate very similar to Vegas, they are in it for the juice, they have investors and they are run like a business that exists to make money.

However, there are still some books offshore that are the wild west, even today. These places will bet into other books, they will scalp into other books, they will move lines artificially for their benefit and all this has a trickle down effect. If a line moves, all lines move, offshore and in Vegas. Because if they don't, then someone is going to be left exposed and someone is gonna exploit that.

There are very few true bookmakers left in this business and pretty much all of them are offshore. Vegas is run by computers and companies like Cantor who's reason for existing is to take the personality out of bookmaking and allow their algorithm manage the risk.

So, could someone with a large following be working with a book to jerk with the line, absolutely, it happens all the time. It actually happens in College Basketball a lot. But it would be coming from offshore, not from Vegas, they are just lemmings.

 
Posted : October 28, 2016 4:32 pm
(@ttombobadly)
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Many thanks. Things you kind of hear about but I haven't had as much exposure to it. Well keep me posted for any job offerings 😉 it's funny working in data driven environments where every decision requires data .. but it's the same thing, has to be good/relevant data (even in forecasting per your example above you'd need to go through and do history scrubbing for KD's stats to 'cleanse' it in order to have something worthwhile .. sometimes its history mapping to a new product, etc).

Have a great weekend guys

Tom

 
Posted : October 28, 2016 7:28 pm
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if you like trends try marc lawrence or killer sports . betting sports is nothing but looking for regression to the mean . 😉 what ever that is lol . anyway gl with trends ttom. i rember when bob martin set a line in nevada it never moved win or lose he put up a number and it stuck .then came lv spts consults an roxie roxbough . that started lines moving . today u have arbs that buy early an then again late to side or middle a few nickles out of books an players !

 
Posted : October 28, 2016 7:42 pm
(@michael-cash)
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I'm one of the few people you will find that has actually spent time offshore so, I know first hand what kind of environment it is. I've been inside Cris, Sportsbook, Bovada, DSI, BetOnline and a lot, LOT more that aren't around anymore. The shit I have seen with my own eyes would blow your mind.

I can tell you that 1 of the sites above that I listed is 100% like a fortune 500 company. It's structured that way, it's run that way and I would have no problem telling my grandma that her pension is completely safe with those guys.

Another site that I listed above who I also have a personal relationship with, is run like a billionaires video game. 90% of it is run like you would expect but there is 10% in there that just don't give a fuck. These guys have 2 whole rooms completely dedicated to trying to bet into their competitors and just generally make every body else's life a living hell. And they think it's hilarious and don't give two shits if they win or lose. I wish I had more time, I could write a book about the time I've spent in Central America and probably retire.

But anyway, I got off on a tangent a little there. I will say this, what we do here and what everyone who comes here should be doing is entertainment. This should be your bowling, your bingo, your bird watching. This should never be a means to an end. Because there is nobody, I mean it, NOBODY that can do this, work a full time job, have kids, etc and be a winner. It's just not possible. I've known some of the most successful sports bettors that have ever existed and betting sports and mathematics is their life. They have no family, they have no friends and betting is their full time job. Not just their job, it's their obsession. And they are brilliant, brilliant people. Joey Drywall making $50k a year has no chance to earn any income whatsoever from sports because it demands far more time than he could ever devote.

Nobody that comes here is a long term winner, I guarantee that. Anyone says they are, is lying. But the reason I and everyone else does this is because it's fun. Sports invade our lives in America, there are 2 days of the year where there isn't a professional or college sporting event. We have at least 8 channels dedicated to a 24 hour loop of sports programming. It's online, it's on your phone it's in restaurants, it's what we do here. And as long as you can control yourself and can manage the losses there is nothing wrong with studying some games and putting a few bucks down. But in the end, the house almost always wins.

Thanks for the questions today Tom, it's been fun. Maybe I should start a weekly feature for Cash's mailbag. LOL. Have a good weekend as well

 
Posted : October 28, 2016 9:13 pm
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